Issac Newton Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 Top 5 at ease! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 10 hours ago, Bob-omb said: Which cities / CDMX areas do you scan? And which chain Cinepolis or Cinemex? I track five theatres within Mexico City and three among Metro Area. Cinépolis only because Cinemex 1. Isn't much presale-driven except for a couple VIP locations 2. Don't have much data outside of NWH and MOM but could be worth giving it a try. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 Final allocation among my sample aims to be 41k-42k which is a relieve and is coming above everything but Fast X. Mario should come a bit higher tho so seems like 4,000-4,200 screens at least during OD. Great but still falling short to 2019 hits Joker, Lion King or Toy Story 4 all which launched at 5,000+ screens. Summer breaks begins right on Thursday so morning shows will see a boost on both Thursday and Friday. Also first shows at major cities looking to start since 10AM which is the earliest since Toy Stoy 4 which started as soon as 8AM. Pandemic hit No Way Home didn't launch until 12PM and both Multiverse of Madness and Super Mario Bros launched around 11AM. Bad news is for Oppenheimer which won't be getting any more screens that the ones already got at presales. Will come lower than Indiana Jones 5 in screen count with barely 1,000 screens and most of them mid-size (120-150 seats). Needs a higher PSA to match it in traditional screens. Highest grossing opening day for a non-3D release is Joker - $82M which includes midnights; ones that Barbie won't get. Hopefully better and earlier morning shows translate into upsetting those numbers. It's hard to messure things with screen count capping things but I think there's a way for opening day to surpass $100M. Today ER registered its best day since August 20th, 2015. If it can remain or even make it better... is $6M. This isn't Mini-Mario but rather Mario 2.0. Final count coming tomorrow. 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Barbie Fri 8729 sold 34656 total 25,19% That's about x0.57 of where OD was yesterday. Wish I had comps but except for Endgame I've never seen anything post-OD selling this well in advance 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted July 19, 2023 Author Share Posted July 19, 2023 Taquilla México on Twitter forecasts a 320M lc OW for Barbie, $19.1M at today's ER. Place your bets, dolls! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob-omb Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Purple Minion said: Taquilla México on Twitter forecasts a 320M lc OW for Barbie, $19.1M at today's ER. Place your bets, dolls! 337M lc OW so that it gets to 20M USD Holidays may benefit it. Edited July 19, 2023 by Bob-omb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobzaruni Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 What did Mario do? 3 hours ago, Bob-omb said: 337M lc OW so that it gets to 20M USD Holidays may benefit it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob-omb Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said: What did Mario do? In LC it did a bit more than 500M in wed-sund and around 400M+ in thur-sun. I think it is almost impossible to beat that since it will have less PLFs. Edited July 19, 2023 by Bob-omb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Warner took lessons from 2019's Disney and is increasing ticket prices for the whole first week. Walk-ins will fuel the ATP lol 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob-omb Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 22 minutes ago, Carlangonz said: Warner took lessons from 2019's Disney and is increasing ticket prices for the whole first week. Walk-ins will fuel the ATP lol So 400M lc is in play? or you already accounted for that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 May be different in some other Latin American countries but I find reviews quite divided unlike US especially among women. From what I've heard and read there's an relevant element in it that while in the US/Europe can work well it's doing it bad for audiences here. Is not humor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobzaruni Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 2 hours ago, Carlangonz said: May be different in some other Latin American countries but I find reviews quite divided unlike US especially among women. From what I've heard and read there's an relevant element in it that while in the US/Europe can work well it's doing it bad for audiences here. Is not humor. Among women? that's interesting, we saw SK with huge difference but it was between men and women Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 (edited) On 7/17/2023 at 2:59 PM, Carlangonz said: BARBIE OPENING DAY - T-3 DAYS Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Growth from T-6 Occupancy % of comp Comp in lc Barbie 105 15226 23117 21.26% 65.86% Spiderverse 84 9797 19284 12.71% 50.8% 155.41% $69.93M BARBIE OPENING DAY - T-14 HOURS Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Growth from T-3 Occupancy % of comp Comp in lc Barbie 211 23370 38515 52.44% 60.68% Spiderverse 175 13954 33397 42.43% 41.78% 167.48% $75.37M Well the time has come. After a long year of awareness and non-stop buzz since its second trailer back in April, Barbie has finally arrived. Beating every single release not only in several interest metrics but also in presales since 2022's Multiverse of Madness is now a reality matching insane numbers for what seems to be a historical weekend. Amazing final hours selling over 8k tickets in the last 54 hours and still adding shows and seats. At the close of this counting there were three theaters that hadn't expanded their count but from Spiderverse's count it aims to go past 42,500 seats plus anything other theaters add. With morning shows looking to be massive since summer break is just starting this should go non-stop all 4-Day weekend and recent increases from Warner and exhibitors it could offset any disadvantage from not getting 3D and 4DX and especially lack of IMAX in big cities. Unlike for stuff like Way of Water; Cinemex and smaller chains should get a lot of spillover similar to Mario. Bigger allocation and better walk-ins from what pace on presales can already tell; this particular comp should already go higher. Is also higher than the combination of previews+OD of anything since Multiverse of Madness as well.Opening day: $90M-$100M ($5.3M-$5.9M)Opening weekend (4-day): $380M-$420M ($22.6M-$25M) Edited July 20, 2023 by Carlangonz 3 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 On 7/17/2023 at 3:14 PM, Carlangonz said: OPPENHEIMER OPENING DAY - T-3 DAYS (NON-IMAX SHOWS) Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Growth from T-6 Occupancy % of comp Comp in lc Oppenheimer 41 771 6064 84.01% 12.71% Indiana Jones 5 60 323 11086 NA 2.91% 238.70% $14.8M OPPENHEIMER OPENING DAY - T-3 DAYS (IMAX ONLY) Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Growth from T-6 Occupancy Oppenheimer 12 2514 3652 35.45 68.84% OPPENHEIMER OPENING DAY - T-13 HOURS (NON-IMAX SHOWS) Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Growth from T-3 Days Occupancy Oppenheimer 43 1939 6180 251.49% 31.38% Massive final hours. Mostly coming from theaters that don't have a PLF or IMAX available so great walk-ins seem ahead of this one too and people from bigger cities will probably just wait until they get a chance to see it on IMAX or Dolby. Capacity is going to limit it a lot so that's why I got rid of the Indy comp as it pointed towards a $20M opening day. Hopefully theaters are able to answer to demand and add more shows.OPPENHEIMER OPENING DAY - T-13 HOURS (IMAX SHOWS ONLY) Title Number of shows Sold Total Available Growth from T-13 Occupancy Oppenheimer 12 3247 3652 29.16% 88.91% It does seems like $6.2M-$6.5M overall for the whole weekend, People more than ever for a previous Nolan title want to see it in the format. Mexico City IMAX are already done for the weekend with other cities following suit little by little. Like Warner for Barbie; Universal is capitalizing on Barbenheimer and increasing ticket prices as well including IMAX shows. Opening day: $8.5M ($0.5M)Opening weekend (4-Day): $42M-$45M ($2.5M-$2.7M) 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 14 hours ago, Carlangonz said: At the close of this counting there were three theaters that hadn't expanded their count but from Spiderverse's count it aims to go past 42,500 seats plus anything other theaters add. Metro Area theatres pulling through with screen count finishing the whole count for the sample with 45,200 seats. That's about the same as Fast X which had IMAX, 4DX and all PLFs. Wondering how it'll be by Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 The Nolanverse! Movie OW lc OW aud Total lc Total aud The Dark Knight Rises $ 130,497,507 2,719,399 $ 420,231,623 9,384,641 The Dark Knight $ 73,172,985 1,730,076 $ 258,301,617 6,523,878 Batman Begins $ 29,596,581 740,321 $ 139,319,688 3,987,525 Interstellar $ 37,662,355 708,056 $ 118,005,816 2,351,290 Inception $ 6,833,542 141,280 $ 117,444,412 2,413,559 Dunkirk $ 31,189,688 518,318 $ 103,561,247 1,872,890 Tenet $ 12,876,213 176,512 $ 52,594,314 752,004 The Prestige $ 8,373,848 187,490 $ 32,620,872 806,725 Insomnia $ 5,746,072 151,682 $ 32,375,328 963,314 Memento $ 599,678 14,888 $ 5,698,106 167,043 Insterstellar has the biggest opening and total outside the Batman trilogy. Based on PTA alone, Oppenheimer should beat both and may reach Batman Begins. Audience-wise again a different story, 2M+ will be a big success. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 $106.5M / $6.3M Biggest of 2023 beating Mario 1 1 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingonaName Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Holy fuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 20 minutes ago, Carlangonz said: $106.5M / $6.3M Biggest of 2023 beating Mario Holy plastic dolls! That points to a 400M+ lc OW, at least $23M. Could it reach 450M lc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlangonz Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 On 7/19/2023 at 9:11 PM, Carlangonz said: Capacity is going to limit it a lot so that's why I got rid of the Indy comp as it pointed towards a $20M opening day. It wasn't that off. $15.4M / $0.9M 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...