Cooper Legion Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 Pessimism Legion strikes again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 19 hours ago, M37 said: Obviously not expecting replies until after lock, but I'm honestly curious how y'all approached this week, because honestly at this point ... I’m frankly more interested in method than results for this week. Here’s how I finally approached it: On a normal LD weekend, would expect BO to make roughly $1X Fri, and then $1.5x for Sa/Su. Guesstimated that CD would pull ~30% from Fri ($0.7x) and ~20% from Sun ($1.2x), and CD itself would be 3-3.5x higher in admits at $3, so basically a wash to $1.5x. Overall thats $3.4x vs $4x baseline Then made one giant (and probably wrong) assumption: the CD deflation effect would be equivalent to $75M in Shang-Chi last year, and so used those Wed to Weekend ratios to estimate this year (adjusting for TC loss/PTA). That at least gave some semblance of a baseline, and then wiggled numbers from there for final projections I’ll be totally happy with 85% on holdovers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 (edited) Sat admits at 3.25x is Sat gross of ~89% (using 3 and 11 ATPs). So ~.7+1.33+1.2=3.23/4. I also had sat at 3/8 and Fri Sun at 5/8 (pre-adjustment). I used a 20% 3Day penalty for cinema day as a result of quite similar assumptions about sat admits and fri/sun lost business. Didn’t even look at 2021 labor given the massive opener, pulled wknd vertical hold/wed vertical hold from 2018 and 2019. Ranged mostly from 120-150%, so used a fairly lazy 135%. So overall went with holds of wed*1.35*.8=wed *1.08. Minor modifications for genre, 3rd wknd rebound, pro forecasts, TCs. And since Invitation doesn’t have a wed vertical, grabbed horizontals from Ready or Not (labor 2nd wknd horror) and gave it a mild boost for R vs PG13. Edited September 2, 2022 by Legion By Night 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 Btw @M37, the top priced item for fall wk1 is the combined Sat for everything else on the slate 😂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipDerby Posted September 2, 2022 Author Share Posted September 2, 2022 just FYI I'm going out of town until Tuesday afternoon, so the next week will be done later than usual, but it was going to be later anyway due to the holiday 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 Barring unexpected results, it looks like @Goldenhour36 should take this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipDerby Posted September 7, 2022 Author Share Posted September 7, 2022 WORKING THIS NOW HOLD PLEASE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...