Why are Franchises almost always increasing OS ?

[Rudolf]

Most franchises peak with the first installment DOM, while they keep growing OS. At the most the first sequel is the peak: Terminator,Nolan's Batman, Shrek, Transformer,...OS the norm is that they keep growing. That can have different causes: expanding markets, introduction of 3D, better franchise awareness or simply growing popularity.What do you think?

[The Toymaker]

Growing popularity and emerging markets are obviously the big causes. There isn't better franchise awareness overseas than in the USA, so that's not a reason. The thing is that each market only has to increase minimally and you'll see a big increase overall. When you compare 60+ markets to one (US), then you're bound to notice one-sided trends in the former because cultures are continental, so when something grows in one country, it affects the others around it. The USA, you see, is [basically] one continent itself, where BO grosses are concerned anyway, so the people living there do not affect other nations' interest.

[lab276]

Exchange rates and growing markets. There will of course be a point where franchises will stop growing, we're just in the midst of an expansion period.

[dezorz]

half of the world has underdeveloped markets. 10B increase in WW theatrical revenues from 2002, foreing box office is 50 percent bigger than 10 years ago. it has nothing to do with franchises, it is just the way HW works now. if it did original movies, it would be similar.

[peludo]

dezorz has given a very important factor. In 2001 or 2002 the number of developed markets was lower than today. If I am not wrong, there are 83 movies released after 2001 in top 100 WW. And in few months the number will have rised to 86 because #96, #98 and #99 are from 90s decade.In my opinon, this expansion started in 2001, with the superb success of Harry Potter and LOTR (adding others like Monsters Inc and Shrek). Since that moment, franchises started to have a huge importance.The factors of the OS numbers are already known: expanding markets (for a big success, China+Russia+Brazil+Mexico can add 150-200 million more than 10 years ago), 3D (if I am not wrong, it adds a 15%), and exchange rates from the main markets. Euro, Yen and Australian Dollar have increased between 50% (Euro and Yen) and 100% (AUD) this decade. If we adjust to actuals exchange rates the biggest hits of 2001 and 2002 (FOTR, TTT, HP1 and HP2), we have that OS numbers of the 4 movies would move between 750-850 OS. That number is just considering today's exchange rates. I do not consider inflation, 3D or expanding markets.Main expanding markets seems to decelerate their rising, but there are another markets in South America (Argentina's case is evident) or some Asian southeast countries which are growing quickly. That countries are not as high as China or Russia, but can contribute to another jump next years. We can start to see 1 billion OS grossers very soon.

Edited September 21, 2012 by peludo

[Rudolf]

Exchange rates and growing markets. There will of course be a point where franchises will stop growing, we're just in the midst of an expansion period.

Exchange rates can go in both directions. At the moment Pound and Euro are weaker than they were.

[peludo]

Exchange rates can go in both directions. At the moment Pound and Euro are weaker than they were.

Both are weaker than in 2009, but they have grown since 2001, which is the moment where I see the start of this jump. And of course, inflation compensates a possible drop in exchange rate Edited September 21, 2012 by peludo

[lab276]

Exchange rates can go in both directions. At the moment Pound and Euro are weaker than they were.

But not weaker than the in the early 00's. And then you've got the Yen and the Australian Dollar which are significantly stronger then they were.

[Rudolf]

In the Japan thread it was mentioned that Japan is deliberately waiting for the release of movies to get some traction. I think people around the world are interesed in movies that were a success somewhere else. "Let us see why they liked it". I think ( I may be wrong) hat people in America are more selfcentered and pay less attention to what others do. ShawnMR once wrote that Americans would listen ony what people in New York or LA are interested in and only the elites in NY or LA would pay some heat to what is going on in Europe or Japan. In Austria AVATAR (and Star Wars in the 70s) was mostly marketed with the BO success in America (and around the word later). So when a new sequel to an already successful franchise comes along it has a big headstart in advertizing.That 2nd and 3rd sequels are still growing (at least relatively) after that is a mystery to me too. Expanding markets alone is not sufficient reason for me. Perhaps more brand fidelity outside NA?

[Rudolf]

half of the world has underdeveloped markets. 10B increase in WW theatrical revenues from 2002, foreing box office is 50 percent bigger than 10 years ago. it has nothing to do with franchises, it is just the way HW works now. if it did original movies, it would be similar.

I disagree : take Despicable Me , a new franchise with an OS percentage of meager 53.7% . Nothing in the movie would suggest that it is more suited for American audiences than Cars 2 with 65.7% (after Cars had 47.2%). Nobody doubts that DM2 will have an OS percentage of 65%+

[peludo]

In the Japan thread it was mentioned that Japan is deliberately waiting for the release of movies to get some traction. I think people around the world are interesed in movies that were a success somewhere else. "Let us see why they liked it". I think ( I may be wrong) hat people in America are more selfcentered and pay less attention to what others do. ShawnMR once wrote that Americans would listen ony what people in New York or LA are interested in and only the elites in NY or LA would pay some heat to what is going on in Europe or Japan. In Austria AVATAR (and Star Wars in the 70s) was mostly marketed with the BO success in America (and around the word later). So when a new sequel to an already successful franchise comes along it has a big headstart in advertizing.That 2nd and 3rd sequels are still growing (at least relatively) after that is a mystery to me too. Expanding markets alone is not sufficient reason for me. Perhaps more brand fidelity outside NA?

Good point. You are right. That is something I have always thought but I have never tried to quantify. The advertising and success of a movie in Spain is very usually linked to its success in USA. Of course, there are exceptions, but it is a general rule that is very usually acomplished. Edited September 21, 2012 by peludo

[lab276]

Take Pirates for example, in selected markets:AWE : OSTAustralia $29m : $29m (despite $6m drop in AUD)China $16.9m : $70m+ (market expansion)France $48m : $49m (1m fewer admissions)Germany $59m : $62m (despite 1.7m fewer admissions)Japan $91m : $108.9m (favourable exchange rate, lost 2b Yen)Russia $38.9m : $63.7m (market expansion)There are a whole host of reasons why franchise increase, as you can see, and in this case, the most significant reason for the increase is market expansion. In developed markets, we can see a similar pattern to how it is in the US.

[dezorz]

I disagree : take Despicable Me , a new franchise with an OS percentage of meager 53.7% . Nothing in the movie would suggest that it is more suited for American audiences than Cars 2 with 65.7% (after Cars had 47.2%). Nobody doubts that DM2 will have an OS percentage of 65%+

i think a beteer question would be - why franchise movies work better than ever before. (in 80s-90s sequels did about 70-75 percent of the first instalment, of course we talk about US box office, foreign box office was not that important back then) now sequels/triqels/etc work better or at least at about same level than first in the series. (i still talk about US market) why? what happened? why people today preffer series more than before? is it because of less variety in cinemas, because age of average cinemagoer went radically down from 80s and young people are more afraid of new ideas?

and now there is foreign market. it has doublled in last decade. russia and china became much more important. those coutries (and many more, post socialist countries) could see US movies before 90s. in case of china, they could only few of them and on a small scale. young people around the world now finally have no barriers. question is, do they really preffer sequels? or they go to see them because HW makes sequels and there is nothing else (on a big scale, a blockbuster kind of film) to see? would they go to see original HW blockbuster as well? we will never know. my guess, they would. they care less about sequels because they are just about to start to explore HW cinematic universe. teenegers in my country do not go to see total recall because it is a rework, most of them didnt see original, never heard of it. they go to see it because it is one of few action FX films at a time in a cinema. for them it is NEW, not a rework or another part of series. kids in here didnt see batman from 1989, they dont care, they dont want to see it. it is an old movie for them. many of them havent see first nolan batman instalment. so why they go to see TDKR? because it is a big scale atraction with no comptetion at the time it has a premiere. look what happens when tere is a dircet competeion (china, TDKR vs TASM vs Prometheus) people chose what they like more, if they cannot afford to see all of them. most of teenegers havent seen previous spideys movies eventough they are not that old. tahy havent seen the alien (and will not, because these films are old - some of them might when they grow up - but then they will not go to cinema as often as they do now, there will be a new bread of teenegers who by the time i am talking about will have not even seen prometheus)

[Rudolf]

Take Pirates for example, in selected markets:

AWE : OST

Australia $29m : $29m (despite $6m drop in AUD)

China $16.9m : $70m+ (market expansion)

France $48m : $49m (1m fewer admissions)

Germany $59m : $62m (despite 1.7m fewer admissions)

Japan $91m : $108.9m (favourable exchange rate, lost 2b Yen)

Russia $38.9m : $63.7m (market expansion)

There are a whole host of reasons why franchise increase, as you can see, and in this case, the most significant reason for the increase is market expansion. In developed markets, we can see a similar pattern to how it is in the US.

valid point but OST decreased 22% DOM

OST increadsed everywhere but in

Denmark -49%

Iceand -45%

Indonesia -39%

UK -3%

New Zealand -26%

DOM -22%

Thailand -20%

South Korea -19%

East Africa -16%

Belgium -16%

Spain -14%

Australia -0%

in all other 48 markets it increased from 1% to 383%

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I would say brand effect is a factor as big as expanding markets. The two factors reinforce each other. Exchange rate is another one.

[Rudolf]

i think a beteer question would be - why franchise movies work better than ever before. (in 80s-90s sequels did about 70-75 percent of the first instalment, of course we talk about US box office, foreign box office was not that important back then) now sequels/triqels/etc work better or at least at about same level than first in the series. (i still talk about US market) why? what happened? why people today preffer series more than before? is it because of less variety in cinemas, because age of average cinemagoer went radically down from 80s and young people are more afraid of new ideas?and now there is foreign market. it has doublled in last decade. russia and china became much more important. those coutries (and many more, post socialist countries) could see US movies before 90s. in case of china, they could only few of them and on a small scale. young people around the world now finally have no barriers. question is, do they really preffer sequels? or they go to see them because HW makes sequels and there is nothing else (on a big scale, a blockbuster kind of film) to see? would they go to see original HW blockbuster as well? we will never know. my guess, they would. they care less about sequels because they are just about to start to explore HW cinematic universe. teenegers in my country do not go to see total recall because it is a rework, most of them didnt see original, never heard of it. they go to see it because it is one of few action FX films at a time in a cinema. for them it is NEW, not a rework or another part of series. kids in here didnt see batman from 1989, they dont care, they dont want to see it. it is an old movie for them. many of them havent see first nolan batman instalment. so why they go to see TDKR? because it is a big scale atraction with no comptetion at the time it has a premiere. look what happens when tere is a dircet competeion (china, TDKR vs TASM vs Prometheus) people chose what they like more, if they cannot afford to see all of them. most of teenegers havent seen previous spideys movies eventough they are not that old. tahy havent seen the alien (and will not, because these films are old - some of them might when they grow up - but then they will not go to cinema as often as they do now, there will be a new bread of teenegers who by the time i am talking about will have not even seen prometheus)

you are right sequels dominate in a way DOM and OS as never beforeIf I understood you, your point is that in the new markets they are perceived less than fanchises than in NA? - I doubt that

[lab276]

valid point but OST decreased 22% DOMOST increadsed everywhere...

But how much of that is the exchange rate? The USD amount is not indicative of actual performance, unless it's 1:1 all the time, which it isn't. For example:

Australia -0%

It decreased by 18% in Australia Edited September 21, 2012 by lab276

[dezorz]

you are right sequels dominate in a way DOM and OS as never beforeIf I understood you, your point is that in the new markets they are perceived less than fanchises than in NA? - I doubt that

not really. my point is that average moviegoer dosent really care too much about franichses or original movies. he thinks only about what he likes/preffers. of course, awarness of a franchise film (next volume of pirates, for example) helps, but if there was a big enough variety of original films (as it was in 80s-90s, - mike mendelson in one of his blogs said he would preffer to see a new comedy from makers of ted and not ted 2 - this is the way it was done before) people/teeneagers would see it anyway.it think studios now can do better sequels as they did 30 years ago and because of expanding markets these sequles dont make domestically what first instalments did (resident evil for example), abroad they can still make enough. it is a safe bet for studios, this is why they have switched to franchises. to mitigate the risk. you know, when it works, dont change it.even blockbusters which are not part of a franchise, they are made to become one. (john carter, prince of persia, battleship) and because these films today are mostly done in FX studios, directors have less and less to do do with it, this is why we see so many underexperienced directors directing 200M+ films today. original ideas simple do not resonate in a good tune for studios today. a person has to be a nolan-size to demand 2D original blockbuster, which is insane. times whe spielberg and lucas did indiana jones are over. even spielberg with tin tin has gone to this franchise run of your own tail. we desperataly need smaller studio to suceed with a original big budget film (something like cloud atlas). we need a similar effect as LOTR did 10 years ago. a prove that big budget films can be done with a heart and succed. Edited September 21, 2012 by dezorz

[Rudolf]

It is a vicious circle: they make sequels because there is success and the success follows the know franchise.

[dezorz]

http://www.vulture.c...park-lines.htmlhttp://www.vulture.com/2012/07/peter-jackson-michael-bay-james-cameron-sequels.html Edited September 22, 2012 by dezorz