Shawn Robbins

Gonna try, but will use a placeholder post if I need to split it later when I'm home.

Spider-Verse official Friday $51.75M (includes previews) Mermaid: $11.8M Boogey: $4.8M GOTG3: $2.9M Quantumania $13,000

And it's no coincidence, IMO, that they have arguably the two deepest rogues galleries in comic lore.

We'll see! Not gonna claim any victories, it's early like @keysersoze123 mentioned about the walkups and people seem to love this movie. Hoping to catch it this weekend myself.

And even though Garfield's films were seen as disappointing at the box office, under the circumstances, I think they went to show just how strong the brand was to still do the business they did in the shadow of Raimi + poor reception of SM3 and rebooting. Batman and Spider-Man. Two incredibly durable characters.

If Spidey holds, that's probably 110-115 wknd. Won't be surprised if it goes up, but summer is here so project at your own caution.

Including

$48.5m Spider $12.5m TLM $3.9m Boogey Posted these on Twitter, direct from an industry source (not Sony).

I'm just being devil's advocate. 😆 If I'm trying to get inside their head, they're weighing the risk of undershooting by 10-20% and not getting in trouble for it, versus overshooting by even a small margin -- and getting Monday morning quarterback-ed by some angry executive alongside readers who nitpick -- or even worse, by overshooting 10-20%. This after 2 of the most recent 3 tentpoles came in on the low end of expectations and the third barely hit them. It's a "hate the game, not the player" situation, fortunately or unfortunately... depending on one's view.

Sony doesn't usually adjust their weekend expectations until Saturday unless previews are just bonkers beyond expectations. The math for $95-100m is still there, which is higher than their number but not egregiously so, if it were to play out as frontloaded as other summer Marvel movies like Thor: L&T. I say that as someone still expecting much more, but just offering some perspective as to why they aren't deviating from what they're telling trades at this point. Best case scenario to me looks like a Jurassic World Dominion-type pattern that would get it to $135-140M, but Spider-Verse's share of Thursday sales compared to Friday were higher than JWD (again, this is the Marvel factor we have to consider) even though word of mouth is obviously more positive for SV. TL;DR -- This might just carve its own path given the severe lack of true comparisons for a fan-driven animated tentpole. Incredibles 2 is tempting to look at, I know, but even Pixar at its peak did not have the kind of massive rush-out audience that the Marvel and Spider-Man brands do.

Spider-Verse Official Previews: $17.35M

I love the idea. Let me try to look, but it will mainly depend on the ability to have a sticky post out of chronological order at the top of page 1 so that we can link to all previous thread as a sort of official archive. In essence, the "previous" page of the most recently archived thread will be immediately linked at the start of page 1. Without that, splitting at a certain page (which is doable itself) would basically mean the new thread starts with a random post instead of a quick explainer and link to historical threads, which are helpful for SEO and whatnot. I may not get a chance to dig into that before we split, but, if one of the mods knows or can poke around, please PM me and we'll give it a shot.

Was already going to wait until after preview numbers are out Friday morning.

I think that was in reply to @cannastop, but I agree -- Dunkirk is mostly outdated from a presales standpoint.

PSA: As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum. Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box office forum as usual). Nothing else will change. ***ADDITIONALLY*** If anyone has readily available links to all of the past tracking threads, please reply to this post. We're going to keep them linked in the top post of the new thread for archival and easy access purposes.

Nope might be worth looking at ("original" film + director fan base + male-driven + near identical release pattern + same studio).

I felt $11 million was in the bag earlier this week too, but let's see how the weekend plays out. We're all convinced it won't pull an Aladdin in terms of daily holds, but maybe it can surprise and at least get a little closer than we think. That, or I'm just gonna wish I'd stuck with previous long range numbers.

Thank you, but I also want to reflect that back to all the people here as well who keep this thread thriving with their insights. It's nice to see this community so active and engaged again after the dark days of 2020-2021.

$10.3m from Disney, includes $850K from Wed

The updated range for Flash in tomorrow's long range on BOP is going to frustrate the lot of you and I apologize in advance. 🤪 I'm not saying tracking these June releases is going to break me, but it might break me. My eyes and brain hurt. I just want to go outside and enjoy the sunlight. Happy Memorial Day!

Haven't done a deep dive into the numbers posted here, but if anyone's looking for optimism about The Flash after one day it might be worth looking at Black Adam ($7.6M actual previews) as a more reliable analog than a Marvel movie. The samples I have access to at the moment are spitting out these super-duper-uber preliminary Flash previews in my models: Black Adam (Thu vs. Thu only for Flash): $9.52M Black Adam (Thu vs. all previews for Flash): $15.63M And that's with an extra week of lead time + way more presales competition working against Flash at this very moment. At the very least, I think we need to get Spider-Verse out of the way before Flash has a shot to build momentum when weighed against Marvel or The Batman comps.

Amid the doom and gloom for Flash's first day, just a reminder in bold here. It's very possible Flash misses high expectations and early tracking, but we have to remember -- at least in terms of presales -- that all of the appropriate comps being used for the movie so far were films that faced significantly less market-crowding. There are literally two other fan-driven movies opening before Flash and whose tickets have been on sale already, with another film (Indy) having a similar audience crossover and going on sale the day before. Most people are not in an economical situation to buy and hold advance tickets for 3 or 4 movies at once, and people outside die hard fans are even less inclined to do so. TL;DR -- I stand by the aforementioned headache scenario of comparing June's presales (and probably July's) too strictly to much of anything that's opened post-pandemic -- at least until closer to each film's respective release. If the data aligns, it aligns, but there isn't enough of a sample size to be as confident that it will yet, even though the comps are still the best waypoint there is and at least offer a baseline. The upside is that this grouping of similar audience films will be useful for the future the next time a similar release calendar comes along.

Fast X 7.5 from studio

I misread Lightyear by a mile by a lightyear, for sure. Couldn't resist.

And to your point, a close industry friend of mine said a very recent screening didn't impress. Very subjective, though, so take that for what its worth. I was bearish on the movie even before they passed along that nugget. (Same person had good things to say about The Flash, though.)