Juby
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Posts posted by Juby
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DOM won't go higher. $930-940 mln. China won't do more than $180 mln. So, TFA needs at least $1.07 mld OS to beat Titanic.
Titanic is not safe yet, right, but chances to beat Cameron's movie getting smaller every day.
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32 minutes ago, Elessar said:
We don't know yet what it will actually do. Let's wait for some numbers at least. With a $33m OD, i don't think it'll go bellow $125m, though. Even that may very well be all it needs to top Titanic.
How?
Domestic gross won't be higher than $950 mln. OS looks like $1.02-1.05 mld. It needs over $185 mln from China to beat Titanic worldwide perfomence, maybe more.
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5 minutes ago, Ash Skywalker said:
$1B is dead. TFA will finish with around $930-940 mln DOM.
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TFA under $40 mln in it's fourth weekend! Big drop.
I hope Revenant will win!
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$940 mln DOM + $1,020 mln OS + $210 mln China = $2,170 mln WW
Beating Titanic still ins't locked!
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53 minutes ago, pieman said:
1941 and 1942 are still part of the first run release. It was just released in new areas i.e. outside of New York and Los Angeles.
Yes, but av. ticket price were diffrent in each year.
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GONE WITH THE WIND (Budget $3.977 mln) ......... /ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION/ (ATP $8.34, Dec. 2015)
1939 .......... $20,000,000 ...................................... /$695 mln/
1941 .......... $11,000,000 ........... $31,000,000 ..... /$366.96 mln/
1942 .......... $4,000,000 ............. $35,000,000 ..... /$123.56 mln/
1947 .......... $???
1954 .......... $???
1961 .......... $???
1967 .......... $???
1974 .......... $??? ............ $189,523,031
1989 .......... $2,403,316 ............ $191,926,347 .... /$5.05 mln/
1998 .......... $6,750,112 ............ $198,676,459 .... /$12 mln/
ALL ........... $198,676,459 .................................... /$??/
Over $1.2 mld DOM adjusted only from 6 of 10 releases! Mojo has wrong data, adjusted number for Gone with the Wind should be more than $1.7 mld, and today average ticket price is $8,61 not $8,34 when I calculate this!
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Mine to. Next to BvS.
Matt looks grat. I want trailer!
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$850 mln DOM? After this weekend i will say $900 mln is locked!
DOM - $900 mln
+OS - $1.2 mld
=WW - $2,1 mld
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Thanks for answer.
So, $850-900 mln from current markets + $150-200 mln from China = $1-1,1 mld OS?
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How far this can go OS? $900 mln in current markets (locked?) +$300 mln China = over $1,2 mld OS? Less / More ??
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With $247 mln OW it needs only Jurasshit World legs to beat Avatar!
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On 13.12.2015, 20:45:15, Juby said:
I repeat. Only 2 movies in the history crossed one billion in domestic box office (adjusted) in their first theatrical releases! Titanic (1997) - $1,072.7 mln, and E.T. (1982) - $1,010.6 mln (according to my calculation).
TFA won't be THAT big!! I think Avatar adjusted ($811,1 mln) is a huge challenge. First Star Wars original run ($220 mln before July 1978 re-release) adjusted is 'only' about $820 mln (biggest in the history of the series). I'm afraid that even with 3D and IMAX TFA won't beat that.
I was wrong. Star Wars (1977) original run wasn't precisely $220 mln. According to IMDb the movie had $234,629,663 on July 23rd 1978. 21-23 July weekend (1st re-release opening weekend) was $10,166,336, so SW original run (till July 20th 1978) was $224,463,327. About $200-201 mln were from 1977, the rest from January 1st - July 20th 1978. Average ticket price in 1997 was $2.23, in 1978 - $2.34.
It means that original Star Wars theatrical run adjusted is between $835-840 mln, and TFA cannot exceed this numbers, no chance!
STAR WARS THEATRICAL RUNS (forget about shitty mojo numbers)
1977 - $224,463,327 ($839.46 mln adjusted)
1978 (1st re-release) - $33,908,317 ($120.82 mln adjusted)
1979 (2nd re-release) - $10,345,657 ($34.38 mln adjusted)
1981 (3rd re-release) - $38,546,556 ($115.64 adjusted)
1982 (4th re-release) - $15,476,285 ($43.9 mln adjusted)
1997 (Special Edition) - $138,257,865 ($251.22 mln adjusted)
all = $460,998,007 ($1,405.42 mln adjusted - 2nd of all time!)
boxoffice.com weekend forecast - $229 mln OW!
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Great news! I've never saw T2 on a big screen (it's my favourite movie of all time!), and 3D re-release means new blu-ray transfer (current blu-ray transfers are pretty bad = just old HD DVD transfers + DNR in Skynet Edition). I hope for new look of the movie like Cameron did with The Terminator, Aliens and Titanic (better contrast, new color-timing, much more details).
40 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:T2's WW is at $519M WW. How high will this re-release push it too?
I think $630 mln WW is in the game. About $35 mln DOM + $60-65 mln China + more than $10 mln from the rest of markets. It might finish under $600M of course, but it also might go much higher thanks to China.
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http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/terminator-2-3d-release-set-849272
How big this can be in China? $50 mln? $100 mln? $150 mln?
T2 was the first (or second, dependent on source) movie in history with over $300 mln OS, but never was released in China! Titanic made there $145 mln in 3D version, Terminator: Genisys $112,8 mln! I think +$100 mln is possible. $30-35 mln DOM + $10-15 mln rest of the markets.
I'm so excited!!
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http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-preview-star-wars-848331
+4100 theaters in December!!
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2 hours ago, No Prisoners said:
considering that it only need to sell 10% more tickets than TPM to get to 1B, I say its quite possible. TPM had mixed reviews and WOM. Plus you have another generation to sell to while the first generation is still alive and kicking
As I said, the very first Star Wars original run adjusted is only about $820 mln, after that there was 5 more Star Wars movies and none of them, even with the re-releases, got close to that. TFA might go little big higher than TPM* adjusted thanks to 3D and IMAXes, but will not exceed SW'77 original run.
*TPM had pretty good reviews and WOM (great legs). It was the most anticipated movie of all time, remember that!
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I change my predictions:
OW: $219,8 mln
DOM: 776 mln (OW x3,53)
+OS: $1230 mln
=WW: $2.006 bln
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6 hours ago, No Prisoners said:
Jaws did
Nope! Jaws were re-relesed in 1979 ($26,860,259 according to IMDb). In 1975 Spielberg's hit made $191,741,308 (according to IMDb), so: $260 mln (all) minus $191,74 mln (1975), minus $26,86 mln (1979) = $41,4 mln in 1976! $191,74 mln + $41,4 mln = about $233,14 mln in film's first theatrical run. It's $942,3 mln adjusted ($1,031.5 mln all - still less than Titanic did in 1997-1998)!
I've done my research, and as I said, only two films would cross $1 billion domestically with today's ticket prices in their first theatrical run (Titanic and E.T.)!
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6 minutes ago, Chewy said:
DOM 1.275B
I repeat. Only 2 movies in the history crossed one billion in domestic box office (adjusted) in their first theatrical releases! Titanic (1997) - $1,072.7 mln, and E.T. (1982) - $1,010.6 mln (according to my calculation).
TFA won't be THAT big!! I think Avatar adjusted ($811,1 mln) is a huge challenge. First Star Wars original run ($220 mln before July 1978 re-release) adjusted is 'only' about $820 mln (biggest in the history of the series). I'm afraid that even with 3D and IMAX TFA won't beat that.
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57 minutes ago, druv10 said:
I'm changing my WW prediction
306 OW/1105 Domestic/2200 WW
I remind you that only 2 movies in the history crossed one billion in domestic box office (adjusted) in their first theatrical releases!!
1. Titanic (1997) - $1,072.7 mln
2. E.T. (1982) - $1,010.6 mln
^ According to my calculation.
TFA won't be THAT big!! I think Avatar adjusted ($811,1 mln) is a challenge. First Star Wars original run ($220 mln before July 1978 re-release) adjusted is 'only' about $820 mln (biggest in the history of the series). I'm afraid that even with 3D and IMAX TFA won't beat that!
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Yes. The Force is strong in this one.
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Today, I say it's not missing $700 mln! I think TPM adjusted ($707,45 mln) is the minimum.
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STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS | 1131.6 M overseas | 2068.2 M worldwide
in International Box Office
Posted
$2.1B worldwide is dead. Titanic is safe.