LonePirate

What about Mulan (animated) and Kung Fu Panda? Or is this only live action movies?

So when does TGM hit $400M and pass DS2? Next Tuesday or a later date if the PLF loss hits harder than expected?

$150M would have been a great guess if you were predicting the seven day stretch from June 1 - June 7 as it has grossed roughly $145M in that period. Just pretend its first five days and the next few months are non-existent.

Paramount is estimating a 29.2% drop on Sunday for $25.2M for the day. This would be the second largest daily drop for the film following Tuesday's post-Memorial Day drop. I don't think it's dropping more than 15% let alone almost twice that.

With digital distribution nowadays, the largest cost to Sony would likely have been the time and effort negotiating and arranging the expansion with theaters. Maybe they had some promotional costs as well. I am sure the theaters are receiving a lot more than their normal cut for this expansion but the grosses are just awful. Each screen playing Morbius is one not playing TGM or DS2, which combined with concessions, undoubtedly reduced revenue for the theaters. Nobody benefitted from the expansion.

Eh, it's no Shrek that's for sure.

So that's about a 25% drop from true OD Friday and slightly more than 50% drop if you consider previews. From an inflated holiday weekend at that. I thought $500M was possible after last Friday and now I'm thinking $600M may be possible after this Friday. Of course the PLF loss next weekend may require us all to reign in expectations.

Are the coasts turning out for TGM this weekend after underperforming last weekend?

It is indeed early but we may need to temper expectations for today. Things seems to be noticeably cooler at the theaters around me when compared to last weekend when things were simply insane. I’m guessing the weekend drop will be closer to 50% than 40% but maybe I will be surprised.

Is there anyone besides Deadline that thinks TGM drops more than 50% this weekend? $63.4M or higher is that line. Disregard the fact that the previous weekend was an inflated holiday weekend which would normally add a few points to the drop this weekend.

The WOM for TGM is stratospheric. Dare I say the WOM is probably second only to Titanic during the past 25-30 years. It certainly seems more widely loved than the huge MCU films (NWH, Endgame, BP), TFA, Avatar and RotK. It's not going to spend 15 weeks on top like Titanic and it's not going to match its domestic gross, let alone its worldwide gross. A 4.0 multiplier could certainly happen. There is no competition for the adult audiences that are driving the film. Young women are now eating up the scenes with the young pilots, especially Teller, at least judging by the numerous TikTok videos I have seen of them lusting after him. The film can co-exist with JWD and Lightyear. Maybe even T:L&T. A huge July 4th is on tap and it's very possible the film will remain in the weekend Top 10 through Labor Day, maybe even clawing back some PLFs by then.

Were its Thursday preview numbers more than $6M as it had a $31M Fri vs. a $25M Mon? It definitely happened back in 2017 when Christmas was on a Monday, as Jumanji, Showman and Downsizing (but not Pitch Perfect 3) were all in their first week and grossed more on Christmas Monday than the previous Friday.

So its first Monday is more than its first (true) Friday? When does that ever happen for an opening weekend? I think it's happened for non-openers like Shrek but nothing comes to mind for a film in its first week. Maybe when Christmas landed on a Monday and a film opened on the Friday before?

TGM is the rare movie that if you canceled every showing after 8:45 PM, the day's gross would likely drop by less than 10%.

TGM took all of DS2's PLF screens hence the large hit.

Sunday being essentially flat with Saturday is somehow both very impressive and completely unsurprising. Over $153 for the 4 day is almost a foregone conclusion now.

$150M for the 4 day still seems possible. Surely Sunday and Monday can squeeze out $61M between them.

Is The Lost City the first rom com to break $100M since Crazy Rich Asians?

Well there is the case of Shrek. It opened well for its time but nobody considered it a shocking movie until that eye-popping performance in its second weekend that helped it reach a multiplier north of 6. That was certainly shocking.

Endgame had a shocking opening but it did not have a shocking run. In fact, its run was mediocre given its ho him multiplier of about 2.40. Contrast that with Inception which had a boring opening but a superb run that resulted in a multiplier of roughly 4.7 which is massive for a summer film.

Not since TFA has there been a movie like TGM which has tapped into a movie going audience that hasn't attended a movie in years. While TGM won't sniff TFA's gross, it stands an excellent chance to match its multiplier and may even exceed it. The nostalgia factor, the stellar reviews and WOM, its appeal to ages 14-80+, and the absolute lack of significant adult appealing flicks will allow it to draw audiences all summer long. There is a Regal near me which has several screens in the complex restricted to ages 21 and over due to alcohol sales. It's playing 13 times prior to 9 PM in this block of screens on Saturday. All 13 of those showtimes are already 85%+ full. There are plenty of seats available in almost all of the non-age restricted showings on Saturday.

I caught a 12:30pm IMAX showing of TGM (guessimating 500 of the 600 seats sold). This is the film that will drive older moviegoers back to the cinema. Movies with appeal to the under 30 crowd have pretty much been the only successful films of the pandemic but TGM upends that thanks to that geezer Tom Cruise. This film is going to have some very long legs and it could certainly be the summer champ. Anything but an A+ Cinemascore will surprise the hell out of me. My only uncertainty with the film is how well non-US audiences will respond to it due to its focus on the American military. Once audiences see the aerial scenes, they may no longer care about that, though.

I skimmed through several reviews and I was shocked by how many of them are flat out raves or close to it. I didn't have any expectations for the film but it might actually be a contender for best film of the summer. If audiences love it as much as critics do, it might even be able to surpass DS2 which looks to be limping its way to $400M.

Perhaps the best commentary I have seen about the new trailer: https://twitter.com/VP1099/status/1528743009742770176

The lack of competition the next couple of weeks should help it clear $500M domestically before it is done; but it's not coming close to a 3x domestically. There is nothing about the film to warrant repeat viewings or persuade people on the fence to see it. It will be on Disney+ by July 4th most likely which is fine.