Needle Nose Ned

I thought Games had to bow out by tomorrow. Never mind.

Of course I don't think it's likely, but it's not that often such a popular movie is out of its IMAX run on the Wednesday after it opens. Just saying I think Wednesday dailies will surprise.

Last night for THG IMAX right? Wednesday might actually turn into a bump, but I suspect a better drop regardless.

What about the 3D?

Didn't Alice drop 71 and have a 2.9 multi?

Serious Question: Why do people believe Games won't be able to duplicate Alice's 2.9x from here? The big open? The perceived frontloadedness of the movie? Burton/Depp giving Alice stronger legs? Because 400 is just too big to project? I'm really just asking because there's a lot of smart people here. Personally, I have no idea how it will hold up, but I can't see a reason why it wouldn't hold up to at least a 2.5.

Virtually all shows before 8:45 sellouts (at about 90% capacity online.) After 9 still a little soft with only one show above 40%.

Just scrolled the Hollywood Arclight which allows you to pick your seat so you can see the sold tickets. They have 23 screenings today. As of 10am:4 between 10:15 and 12:30: Currently about 40% full.5 between 1 and 3:45: 70%8 between 4:45 and 8:40: 80%6 after 9: 10%Obviously these are presales and there will be walkups. Pretty amazing given the number of screens.

No way was Lionsgate going to put out a projection that had it beating TDK. THG has not performed like any March movie so I don't think it should still be modeled after March movies with an Alice 30% drop. TDK is going down.

I seriously wonder how good Sunday could be for this movie.

All I can say is wow. To think it could still break the record is unbelievable. But this movie is a one of a kind sensation that's been fun to watch and it will be interesting to see where it goes from here an every day on its run.

Really? I always thought she came in with an evening and final in the am. But I guess I've never tracked BO as closely as I have Games. It's just such a unique phenomenon and with other movies you usually have a pretty solid ballpark figure.

Off topic: does everybody agree with Titanic doing 40ish? I feel like there's already a 3d backlash brewing and it will only get worse for an old property. I get younger audiences wanting to see the film in 3D, but I'm having trouble believing older audiences will be that excited about it.

Has Nikki really been this late before? This seems unusual to me.

Marketing can't be understated. Their understanding of social media and how to manipulate it for their core audience will become a model every rival studio follows. 3 million facebook likes prior to release? The insane twitter trending? There's already a new industry tracking service at HP Labs which has posted results better than the industry leaders just tracking social media as a predictor of box office.

For what it's worth, I've got two totally unsubstantiated, completely back of the napkin theories on why THG has had this OW.1. A synergy effect between Twilight/Potter: Not perfect crossover. But those audiences grew up with two event franchises and were ready to embrace a 3rd when they got older which combined with the new young base THG enjoys. So it's base was actually larger than Potter/Twilight before you add in the 4 Quad. Maybe this is too obvious.2. The books: Not a new theory, but a new twist. Everyone talks about the volume of books. Tons of movies have had more books in print in print prior to a movie release than THG. I think timing is the more important factor. HELP had a high number of active readers in addition to big sales when it was released. TWILIGHT the same. But I'll bet if you could quantify it, THG had the highest volume of active readership in the 6 months prior to its release than any film in memory, maybe in history.

I have no info that you guys don't have, but I smell a record. Increased domestic BO plus the massive Friday with only 20 midnights makes me think this movie will continue to do things no other movie has. Can't wait for Nikki to give us something. I'm hungry.

You're absolutely right. Lionsgate undoubtedly had this in mind when they set their date. I agree it's very underrated for both the midweek and weekend, and quite strategically timed.

Heard this, but I question how much depth it adds to the audience so late in the run. But you can imagine rewatch biz.

This has been talked about amongst people I know. Squeezing the midweeks funnels audiences into the weekends. The downside of that is usually the comp (death in the summer) But THG, like AIW, doesn't have great comp in the coming weeks. So it makes me think it could play stronger weeks into its run (although admittedly, AIW had a great setup -- Green Zone in wk 2, then Wimpy and BHunter in Wk 3, whereas THG has Wrath and Titanic/Reunion)

Newbie Question: Why do I have a 'Warn Status' bar?

I'm just trying to imagine how THG could have a 2.7 plus multiplier in March, without summer midweeks. But I've seen all the tracking and I've never seen a non-sequel track this well into its open. I also wonder if the lack of comp is clearing out its audience and it will be frontloaded, but it's playing so strong right now across demos. My gut feeling is this goes past 400, but it's so crazy to predict that.

Newbie here, work at one of the studios. Really impressed with everyone's knowledge of box office and I've been lurking in the THG threads for a while. I know it's a little off topic, but if THG does 150 - 160 with impressive quadrant splits, what do you think of its total run?