Needle Nose Ned

I'm not a box office expert so I'm just throwing out a wild theory about the alleged Skyfall drop: Is it possible there is a Twilight effect? When BD1 was released, Immortals was in its 2nd weekend and fell 61.6. For Eclipse, 2012 dropped 59.5 in its second week.There is minor crossover in the audiences, and you don't see the same impact on drops with broad comedies or family films (that I can see). I still assume Skyfall will improve substantially on its 65% drop, but maybe the drop is an anomaly related to Twilight?

Taste aside, doing 1 million on your 5th Monday and Tuesday is very impressive, especially outside summer. It's going to be interesting to see how THG holds on post Avengers, but I think it's going to creep for a while, not die off.

The huge potential X Factor in this is still the book readers. When a movie audience has a book that is actively being read, the legs are hard to figure.I think The Help is a great example. That movie was already a huge bestseller when it debuted, but I don't think it held on just because its older audience got to the movie in their sweet time. I think it held because, with the movie out there, a number of people picked up the book for the first time and filled out the later weeks. Games could do the same and I think it gets past 400.

She did say she was on vacation this week. So I'm guessing reports will be sparse.

Hear Hear.

According to Wiki at least, Lionsgate paid 12 million for the film. MGM may have taken a bath on it, but I'd say its a guaranteed earner for them. But maybe there's a lot more details to the story.

Gotta love Nicky. Her 8:15 update (when has she ever done 3 updates at 1, 3, and 8?) has her now saying Games to come out on top with Stooges 2 and Cabin 3. She's straight shilling at this point.By tomorrow this will be Games/Cabin and Stooges in 3.

Good work!

A 4:15 update on her previous report? Nikki clearly has a rooting interest here, though I appreciate her nod to objectivity in revising her statement about reviews of Cabin from 'decent' to 'extremely well-reviewed.' And she at least acknowledges the night edge Cabin holds over Stooges.We'll see what happens, but I think Nikki is on the stump for Stooges until she's forced off of it by the numbers.

There is no way Stooges does good night business. I think Cabin will be the surprise because it should fare pretty well in walkups.

Variety says, "Not Horrendous!!!"The LA Times says, "It wasn't painful!!!"The Chicago Tribune says, "I laughed once!!!"Rex Reed says, "It's not total crap!!!"

Since when is 42% good? She says the reviews are "better than expected" for Stooges, while saying Cabin got "decent" reviews. It's at 93%! Nikki is clearly cheerleading for this so I'm not buying any of it for now.

18 to 23 million is not the story for this movie. Even if you assume 20/10 for the next 2 weekends, the question is whether it can put together a couple of 10 million dollar weeks once Avengers hits. I think that's what will become the sexy story. Games will hold on, not fall off the cliff like standard sequels, and surprise with it's creep.

Yeah, but you fail to understand how expert you are. Sports are deluged with "experts," and there's no lack of coverage. Since I've been watching this website, there's all of 15 people who truly understand box office. And there's no expert coverage of this whatsoever (outside pathetic attempts like Pamela McClintock and her type who report box office but don't understand it.)I can't help anyone get a job, but there are people here who could be very useful to prodcos and studios who still don't understand this stuff. My point is this: people here should apply for jobs in hollywood if they want one, because box office science is an emerging science, not a well understood one.

Nothing exactly. I just know that people here know more than a lot of people in the industry do. I've learned quite a deal from you all since I started paying attention. I'm not aware of any books or studies that comprehensively break down how movies perform from OD to OW to the drops and second weekends, etc. It could be that I'm just plain unaware.But I can say that most of what gets talked about here does not get discussed in this level of detail or precision where I work. So my thinking is that this level of knowledge is not common.

I think people here would be highly surprised at how little the studios know about the mathematics of box office.

This movie is going to inch it's way past 400. I hope that's BJ's prediction because it will come true.

Don't know how official it is, but Nikki posting 6.3.

Yeah, late to the joke. Story of my life. I'm hopeful about Saturday though.

If Nikki stays true to form, she'll project 38 million later tonight and then revise to 27.

How would 30 hold up with Thor?

Biggest problem with a movie like this is how hamstrung they are to follow the book. In normal development, adaptations are always dictated by finding the sculpture within the stone. You cut characters and subplots, take poetic license, and build on the essence. Games pacing is off because there's so many scenes that don't need to be there. In the perfect adaptation (which can't exist because of the commercial constraints), the tone is even darker, Panem benefits from a few extra budget bucks, the fight happens sooner, violence creates credible fear, and tension escalates because brutality is stark (not necessarily gory, but not just implied.) The setup is too long, the finish is too emasculated. Lawrence is a major talent and she carries the movie beyond its flaws. Ross did fine, but he's on a tightrope trying to keep the movie from being too dark. Personally, I'm hoping the success of this film allows him to take more liberties going forward. The censors should be more forgiving, and hopefully audiences have bought in enough that they want more than just "seeing" the book.

I finally saw it last night. I liked it a lot, didn't love it. Most of my issues with it have to do with the movie it should have been versus the movie it had to be for commercial purposes. This really can't be helped so I give it a solid A for its ability to work within those limitations.

So what's the percentage chance THG beats Avatar?

I think the hidden variable is how many people who are actively reading these books. The movie is spurring huge current book sales. Games only takes a few days to read. So the book audience is growing as WOM spreads. A perfect storm for legs.