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Netflix probably isn't going to win Best Picture until they figure out how to give their contenders a second wind during the heart of Oscar voting. The Power of the Dog still could take it, but it would be limping to the finish line at this point. I saw a comment along these lines the year Parasite won-it was an October release but didn't play in 1,000+ theaters until late January. A streaming movie can't use that strategy, but maybe Netflix could use a lighter hand with their push? At least at the start, because it seems like Netflix goes pretty hard for months with their number one and voters are just over it by Oscar night. Netflix also might want to go with movies that will be loved vs admired but deemed "cold" by the public and the less auteur-loving voters. It's less an issue of subject matter than tone. I bet their thought was that if they leaned super hard into Very Directed Cinematic Masterpieces, that AMPAS would be won over, despite the Netflix of it all. So far, they've ended up with movies the Academy hasn't really warmed to. Competition is a part of it, too, sometimes the movie to admire can win if they don't really love anything else in the field. But that part of it is out of Netflix’s control.

The next rom-com queen was shaping up to be Katherine Heigl but she publicly trashed her hit TV show and one of her biggest movies, burning bridges in the industry and with fans. The market turned to franchises and young actresses got their big paydays there in the last decade instead of rom-coms. The quality went down and it was a lot of Love Actually wannabes before studios largely gave up on the genre and the cable networks/streamers started dominating it.

People who call CODA a Disney/Hallmark/Lifetime movie haven't really seen what those networks have been releasing for the last decade or two, huh? Then, the protests that a remake winning would be the ruination of the Oscars, when it's happened at least twice already (Ben-Hur and The Departed) and nobody really cared at the time. "A movie with no below-the-line nominations winning Best Picture spits in the face of the crafts, ABC must be thrilled!" People are being soooo melodramatic. They've followed the Oscars for years and are shocked, shocked that the winner isn't always the most technically impressive or the one with the highest Metacritic score? Come on, now. It's really interesting to watch people who typically go on about diversity and inclusion get Big Mad about CODA potentially winning. Not to say that the Deaf community unanimously loves the movie, but the awards junkies gnashing their teeth right now on social media barely know/care about those issues. Also, it's not like there aren't complaints about the way The Power of the Dog portrays gay/queer characters-not in a Sam Elliott way, but about the character arcs/plot being regressive. Like that anonymous ballot said, pretty much every Western since the 1960s has been revisionist, so it's not anything groundbreaking at this point. I liked TPotD but don't see how it's doing anything innovative/fresh in the world of film, either. So, in the end, it's just a matter of which movie the voters like better.

On the bright side for the Oscar producers, no long speeches if all the winners get Covid and can't show up...

It's Anonymous Oscar Ballot time! Super click-baity headline, but this voter seems pretty thoughtful and well-informed about all the categories. And not a total jerk, just a bit snarky: For the record, the voter thinks The Power of the Dog is well-made but didn't connect with it, and finds the Netflix ad campaign in L.A. excessive.

I checked YouTube, and they had Halle Berry introduce a "Bond through the years" clip package, then Shirley Bassey sang Goldfinger. At least 50 or 60 years is an even number, unlike the random Dreamgirls tribute in 2013.

We're getting "a tribute to 60 years of James Bond" and "a Godfather celebration 50 years in the making", and more! Real time savers there... /s A short, simple guide to the preferential ballot, from the Academy:

Even if ABC didn't care about the ceremony length, they would have found a way to work in a performance of super popular song from a nominated movie. I mean, they had a Queen (with Adam Lambert!) medley start the show in the year of Bohemian Rhapsody. At least "We Don't Talk About Bruno" is a new song from a 2021 movie. I think most if not all of the Original Song contenders are slow songs, so none really work for kicking off the show like "Can't Stop the Feeling". Though they are likely going to hold back the Bruno performance as long as possible, like Santa at the Thanksgiving Day Parade. There are Twitter freakouts that "Dos Oruguitas" won't be performed, but Encanto is a Disney movie, so ABC won't cut it completely.

Shawn Mendes should present the #OscarFanFavorite if Cinderella wins. The producers say they want reuinions, heh... There will probably be another 2-3 rounds of presenter announcements before the 27th, plus some surprises during the show. Jessica Chastain plans to be inside when they're presenting makeup, even if it means skipping the red carpet...

More presenters...

LMFAO, he's just an old crank who hates everything...

Power of the Dog about to go 0-for-12... That Marlee Matlin article is from 2016, but if people go digging for other "problematic" incidents from Campion (and they will) or ask Matlin for comment, this week... It's much better to get all controversies out the way early on so it's old news by the time voting starts.

That was fast, but Oscar voting does start on Thursday...

I would love to know who would've won Critics Choice if it had happened on the same night as the Golden Globes, as originally scheduled. They want to be Oscar predictors so bad. At least there weren't any "ties" this year. As for Campion, the old dudes in AMPAS probably care about her calling Sam Elliot a bitch, they’ll relate to him and think she was being uncouth and unladylike. Privileged person sounding privileged (her great-grandfather's house has its own Wikipedia page) is an outrage to Film Twitter, but most voters will think at worse she made an awkward comment and meant no offense. Still, I don't think it'll ruin her Best Director chances.

The Weakness of the Dog? What is the last movie to only win Best Picture and Best Director at the Oscars? Definitely longer ago than the last Best Picture winner missed an editing nomination. I thought Belfast would do better here, but if it can't win big on the "crowdpleaser" narrative in its home territory, where it actually did well at the box office, the Oscar seems like an impossible task. I would be more surprised by it losing the Original Screenplay BAFTA, except someone posted the first page of the Belfast screenplay and it was just so spare, but not in an artsy way voters would appreciate.

Celebrities who don't use social media have staffers or family/friends to keep them filled in. Remember the "controversy" that started when Anne Hathaway said Nolan doesn’t have chairs on the set and doesn’t want people sitting between takes? That had some ugly implications with respect to rest on set, disabilities, etc., and Twitter had strong opinions. His team got it cleared up pretty quickly that the chair thing wasn't true. So, I'm sure that Nolan and/or people at Universal have some awareness of the brewing criticisms about Oppenheimer being very white. Does that mean he'll do anything differently? Not necessarily. He probably knows about the "dead wife" writing for women characters getting slammed and except for Murph (originally a son in the first drafts), it's still not that great. Though character development hasn't been a strong suit for anyone in his last two movies, so...

The casting headlines started with major names in pivotal roles (RDJ! Emily Blunt! Cillian Murphy stars!) and now it's clearly people who'll have about 5-10 lines in the final cut, if that. Think about the Best Cast lineups at the SAG Awards, we're 2-3 times that with the known Oppenheimer cast members. At this point, I don't even think it's the studio sending out press releases, just the media latching onto any news they can get about the new Nolan movie. And now that social media is really noticing the overall racial breakdown of the cast, sites are only going to dig harder and report "casting scoops" on practically every glorified extra and get the outrage click Twitter engagement if it's yet another white person. Coming in the week the Zoe Kravitz/Dark Knight Rises story got a lot of play, you knew Twitter was going to go in on Nolan. The online worm has turned on him anyway and some people are looking for any reason to pick him apart. It would be even worse if Oppenheimer were directly following Dunkirk, rather than Tenet...

Mila accepts the love for Ukraine and she was also in a movie that's nominated this year, cool. Uma Thurman and John Travolta are both announced as presenters, so, a Pulp Fiction reunion. Maybe they get Original Screenplay? Wonder if Kaluuya will bring Heir Holiness as his plus-one...

The red carpet show has always had different cohosts than the main ceremony--it's not like Billy Crystal was outside asking everyone "Who are you wearing?" back in the day. It's been people like Robin Roberts and Ryan Seacrest and someone from the fashion world. A red carpet show is pretty basic and hard to screw up, so I'm sure these producers will find a way.

The SAG Award ratings went up about 100 percent this year without them changing anything from their pre-pandemic format. I never expected such a big spike for this year's Oscars, but a natural improvement because there is more engagement with the movies this year. The ceremonies are more of a normal spectacle vs a glorified Zoom session. That was before they were hell-bent on chasing an audience that no longer exists, but the ratings will still probably increase. I also think the show will go over 3 hours anyway, their time management sucks. AMPAS has gotten spoiled with getting most of income from the ceremony and ABC has had the contract for too long to approach the show in a truly fresh way without being desperate about it. A shame all around... More presenters: Anthony Hopkins, so hopefully the Academy’s ignoring the stans who wanted Gaga to present Best Actress. John Leguizamo to introduce the Encanto song performance?

Even more than Halloween Kills? That's surprising, though more people have Peacock now (especially during the Olympics) vs last October. I wonder how much day-and-date took away from the box office. This one probably wouldn't have set records, but it never helps the box office either and I doubt Marry Me drove that many signups...

I just didn't get her strategy at all. It seems obvious other voters in the acting branch would potentially resent a pop singer being in awards contention again. You can see some Anonymous Ballot person being like, "She gets nominated every time she makes a movie? It's not fair!" Also, she's already won an Oscar, even if it's not for acting, but it shines on a mantle/bookshelf the same way, so were they really ever all that desperate to crown her Best Actress right now? IMO, the way to counteract any industry backlash about her continued movie success was to publicly position herself as humble and let the work speak for itself. They all campaign, but it's about finding a Goldilocks approach: voters have to know you care, but not so much that it seems tryhard. Now, if her goal was to throw out so much fresh PR chum this time around, that the media wouldn't really bother with reexamining her antics (and their fallout) from her last awards season go round...job well done. * There hasn't been a shortage of Batman depictions in the last decade, plus this is a long, rebooted "gritty" approach, the OW is fine.

Ridiculous... Why would the Academy agree to that kind of contract, and what would happen if ABC did cancel the Oscars telecast? Couldn't some other network/streamer swoop in and get the rights? For less money but still a considerable amount, and it would be better to deal with a network/streamer that isn't so stuck in the past. Also diversify your income, AMPAS! The telecast was pretaped and an hour long last year, yet the ratings doubled when it was a live show and twice as long, fancy that. Also, they give out nothing but acting awards on the telecast, none of the "boring" technical categories...and yet, all the people who complain about the Oscars being too long didn't flock to watch the SAGs.

Maybe Kevin Costner is introducing The Power of the Dog, or maybe he's presenting Best Picture: he has the stature for the category and is a former winner there. Hopefully, he's a bit more enlightened than fellow Yellowstone Expanded Universe castmate Sam Elliott and won't look annoyed to announce it. Some messy people on Twitter hope Gaga is presenting Best Actress, but Original Song seems more likely, especially with Will Packer wanting to have cast reunions as presenters.