MattW
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Posts posted by MattW
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Since this used to be the franchise wars thread here's a little franchise of a different sort:
- Inside Job (2010)
- Too Big to Fail (2011)
- Margin Call (2011)
- The Big Short (2015)
Too Big to Fail is an HBO movie and clearly on slightly lower level as far as the overall feel and flow of it, but I still enjoy it. Margin Call and The Big Short are some of my favorites.
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On 11/30/2019 at 7:56 PM, Eric Plus said:
Apparently this means last day of filming for this year, to be continued next year.
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12/13/2019 Jumanji: The Next Level $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $50,000,000 -29% $225,000,000 – $275,000,000 Sony / Columbia I don't see why this will have legs that are so much better than the hobbit movies. Hobbit 2 opened on Dec 13 and didn't have a massive opener the following week and got a 3.5x multi. I full expect Jumanji to be in the 3-4 range, 60/240 is a best case scenario, 50/175 seems much more likely. As a number of other people have said opening the week after TLJ in 2017, esp given the latter's disappointments, is what gave it the edge. This one opening before TRoS is all downside.
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4 minutes ago, a2k said:
i wouldn't say it's easy unless it shows a bump to 35.
34
34
22 (-35%)
= 90
35% drop is very optimistic looking at other animations this sunday.
Outside shot Saturday bumps up, the bad weather yesterday may have kept a few people home who would have otherwise gone out for some shopping/entertainment. My guess is roughly flat with a 40% Sunday drop, 86-88
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https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-frozen-2-rule-thanksgiving-royal-100m-1258349
QuoteFrozen 2 will have no trouble staying atop the chart over the long Thanksgiving corridor (Wednesday-Sunday) with a royally great $100 million to $120 million for the five days.
Rian Johnson's whodunit Knives Out is on course to gross $8 million today — including $3.7 million in Tuesday previews and precious sneaks — for a five day total as high as $30 million to $25 million, ahead of expectations.
Queen & Slim, helmed by acclaimed music video director Melina Matsoukas in her feature directorial debut from a script by Lena Waithe, is on course to gross $2.2 million on Wednesday for a projected five-day haul north of $15 million to $17 million
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Last year grinch dropped a bit on Wed with higher ticket prices meaning admissions were down significantly. Hunger games all went up 20-30% on Wed meaning flat or very slight drop in admissions. So is frozen more similar to grinch or to hunger games
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5 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:
I think I wasn't. I think weekend was just 129.5 range and they adjusted it with Monday.
Disney pulled a Paramount?
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1 hour ago, marveldcfox said:
This will be turned into another Justice League. Lots of reshoots, editing and post release fighting.
I hope you're wrong, unfortunately solid chance you're right.
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59 minutes ago, JB33 said:
I'm thinking $13.6M+ for Frozen II today, followed by a huge $21M+ Tuesday.
EDIT: Maybe not $21M+ on Tuesday. Make that $20M+.
My guess right now is 13/17/22. We'll see.
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Nov 11 is a wednesday, seems like a weird time for a mid-week opening. Wouldn't Nov 20 be more likely, there's nothing big on that date right now except Untitled Amblin Project and Untitled WB Event Film #2.
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A lot of best of the decade lists have gone up, including many for movies:
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It's going to beat dorys IM, 125+ easy.
Even if Charlie's early Friday is 10% too high I come up with over 130
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I've never seen frozen.
Bite me.
Also some November animated Friday openers and some others that may be more or less related.
Th Fr Wkend Th:Fr Th:Wkend Fr:Wkend 2011 Happy 2 Feet -- 5.85 21.2 -- -- 3.62 2012 Wreck It Ralph 0.38 13.51 49 35.55 128.95 3.63 2014 Big Hero 6 1.4 15.81 56.2 11.29 40.14 3.55 2015 Peanuts -- 12.08 44.2 -- -- 3.66 2016 Trolls 0.9 12.37 46.6 13.74 51.78 3.77 2018 Grinch 2.2 18.64 67.6 8.47 30.73 3.63 2016 Zootopia 1.7 19.5 75.1 11.47 44.18 3.85 2016 Storks 0.44 5.8 21.3 13.18 48.41 3.67 2016 Dory 9.2 54.7 135.1 5.95 14.68 2.47
I'm not suggesting F2 will be anywhere close on the thursday ratio as these, but $9m may not be as bad as it seems. In fact I'm leaning towards F2 at least matching Dory's IM, 15+Interestingly, the Friday:Weekend ratio is pretty consistent for Nov animated movies with or without previews.
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https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/box-office-jumanji-2-early-tracking-1203411581/
Jumanji tracking for 40-50, if it does 50 then it would match the first one's 5-day opening plus the pre-previews. Same release date as Hobbit 2 which had a 3.5x multi, 50*3.5 = 175, maybe sidles up to 200 with a little extra summin-summin on both ends. Seems like a reasonable upper bound to me.
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First thing that came to mind was this dog's animation would be great in a Homeward Bound remake.
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10 hours ago, a2k said:
from the wrap article
QuoteBut at the same time, analysts are ruling out a $150 million-plus opening despite record presales on Atom and Fandango because they believe that “Frozen II”‘s key audience, families, will probably wait until Thanksgiving weekend to see the film.
It'll have a good thanksgiving week compared to normal weeks but do they really expect it to be unusually backloaded compared to other pre-thanksgiving releases? Last year the grinch dropped 20% from the weekend before to the weekend after thanksgiving. That would be a phenomenal result for F2 imo. I expect a much harsher drop, closer to hunger games than grinch.
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On 11/12/2019 at 4:32 AM, JamesCameronScholar said:
It has taken me 5 years to realise that the 'like' icon is the one from T2.
I hadn't noticed until your post. Cheers.
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~40m in new openers, 70m for holdovers, 110m total.
Next weekend 60m holdovers, 130-150 for Frozen and another 25-30 for the other two, $215-240m total.
Biggest pre-thanksgiving weekends:
2009: $258m
2011: $222m
2012: $250m
2013: $226m
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OW: $138,752,957
Dom: $468,319,770
OS: $812,555,323
WW: $1,280,875,093
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I enjoyed it quite a bit (aside from some of the dialogue being too on the nose). Worth rewatching at home.
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I wrote down 775 earlier this year but from reading the thread so far that seems low.
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Up to now i was thinking joker is rivaling bohemian rhapsody for how impressive the os run is, but after this week's hold i think joker is clearly more impressive. Here comes 700+ without China
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Is there is any movie star that is as important as strong IP?
ROTHMAN Yeah, I think there are lots of movie stars. It's one of the great myths propagated out there that movie stars don't matter. I would say movie stars in the right role with the right property matter more than ever before.
So you would trade the Spider-Man property for every Leo DiCaprio movie for the rest of his career?
ALL (Laughter.)
ROTHMAN I'd love to have both.
EMMERICH Who is he negotiating with?
ROTHMAN Well, I can tell you this. The event nature of having Leo and Brad [Pitt] and Margot [Robbie] in [Sony's] Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was essential. You had to make a great movie … but that movie was not based on any IP at all. That is a pure original. Came out of the imagination and the headspace of one individual. Because even Disney will run out of animated movies to remake. And we have to be careful not to narrow our audience, not to think that there isn't room for originality. I think there is. In the pursuit of that, movie stars are tremendously valuable.
EMMERICH The thing that we all sit around talking about is "theatricality." IP and movie stars are two huge ingredients. You have to have one or the other. It's even better if you have both.
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You recently said that if Netflix spends $60 million on a movie, to be successful it should be watched by 30 million accounts. That's the first time I have heard you talk about the success metric for a Netflix film. Does that formula apply across the board?
STUBER No. Each film, like for all of us, the P&Ls are different. Having been on both sides — the theatrical business and now streaming — there is so much out there for the consumer that we are fighting for time. The assumption is that it's easier [at Netflix] because I don't [have box office pressure]. But we have our own tracking. We have our own anxiety. We have our own opening weekend. That was a rough estimate, but different things take different marketing aspects.
So what do you look at on Monday morning after a big film debuts on the service?
STUBER We value over a month, basically. We look at 28 days and because we can see where things are opportunistic, we can market toward it. We can market in the second and third weeks as well. We greenlight off of X money and how much we are going to spend. And we hope that this many people watch in that 28 days. And that's our success rate metric.
Take a film like The Irishman. That's been gestating for a long time, it was at several different studios, and you took it on for about $150 million. It's three and a half hours long. What is the success metric for that film?
STUBER There are a lot of variables. When I took the job [in 2017], I was building a new studio. We have no IP, we have no library, we can't remake things. We don't have the great cache that Alan has over there. So you have to say, what is your opportunity? And your opportunity is filmmakers. For us to get Marty [Scorsese] at Netflix was a big thing. It was a big win. So that was one thing. And then the economics. We have enough subscribers that we think the movie can deliver on. Thankfully he over-delivered.
Jim, you are smiling. You gave that film up.
GIANOPULOS Yeah. Well, before my time, but nevertheless. It was very ambitious for a studio to take on a project like that. There is a different perception of the economics. For us, at that level, for a period drama — or for anyone, I would submit — it was ambitious. And it was perhaps too ambitious.
EMMERICH That's where the consumer wins. I don't think any of the studios could make that movie at that cost at that length and come out alive.
GIANOPULOS Right.
EMMERICH But it works for Netflix for the reason that Scott said.
As people who have spent your careers in the theatrical movie business, doesn't it bum you out that you can't make The Irishman?
LANGLEY You know, it actually doesn't. It would bum me out if no one made the movie.
HORN That's right.
LANGLEY That's what's really exciting about our entire ecosystem right now, even though it is giving us the headaches and sleepless nights. It's never been a better time for filmmakers and storytelling and for things to find their way into the world that were getting squeezed over the last five or six years or even longer.
EMMERICH The only difference for us, and maybe for the average consumer — I'll bet everyone at this table wants to see The Irishman in a theater.
LANGLEY Yeah.
EMMERICH And it will be available, to some extent. Or we'll get invited to Scott's house.
STUBER You're all invited. (Laughs.)
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Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
I haven't seen it yet but if you're suggesting it's in the game category I'll bump it up the list to see.