MattW
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Posts posted by MattW
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Does not bode well for overseas total in USD.
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9 hours ago, Tinalera said:
I will never not be intrigued when Openings for movie opening predictions that haven't/or barely started selling tickets. That whole thing of trends, observing numbers from trailers ect, combined with using past history to make a call on a movie that is over a month away-theres some really funky demo numbers/trends/math/magic/mojo combination going on to bring forth the numbers, always tickles me to see it.
I think box office pro originally was trying to use social media buzz as a secret sauce on top of normal early tracking data. I don't think it worked out for them but it seemed like a real possibility early on, 7-8 years ago.
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I'd give black adam a decent chance, the dearth of anything in Sept and most of Oct could give it the edge.
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I was looking at september just a couple days ago and came up with a similar 275-300 total. Lower end puts it almost as bad as Jan-Feb were when comparing to pre-pandemic monthly averages. Real feast or famine kind of market.
Edit Sept 7:
300-325 Sept
475-575 Oct
Somewhere around 600 for Nov
Oct 14 edit:
Oct ~480
Nov 700-750
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41 minutes ago, filmlover said:
Septembers for 2016-2019 averaged out to $660m, looking at next month I have a hard time seeing more than $300m which would be 45%. January was worse with 41% and you have to go back to June 2021 to get a lower percentage.
(guessing $500m for Aug and $300m for Sept here)
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On 7/6/2022 at 5:16 AM, stripe said:
I expect bigger numbers for July. Around 1,100M. First month to reach the billion mark.
In fact just the sum of Thor and Minions July grosses can very well be over 700M
Add 100M from TG2, 60M from Elvis, 40-50M from JWD, 30M from BP. And July is already over your 925M prediction.
Then there are some possible breakouts (Nope, Crawdads, which combined should add 100M+ inJuly), and there are two animated films that can add 50M.
Good call, looks like 1125 or so. Not sure how I came up with such a low number even after we saw minions opening.
Puts July at about 90% of the previous average, best month of the recovery so far beating out Oct last year with 88%.
August looks unpleasant to me. This weekend holdovers will do 75-80m, plus 20-30 superpets and maybe a tiny addition from vengeance, 100-110 total. So August holdovers should make 220-250 during the month of August, and new releases I think 250 is being generous. 500m-ish? Hard to say, with a weaker 2nd half of the month very possible a few movies get an expansion the last weekend of the month like Jurassic World did in 2015, but that still wouldn't add that much.
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In what way do the numbers still come from ec, charlie doesn't have his own access?
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21 minutes ago, grim22 said:
It's never been about the numbers, those are good, it's always been about the community.
And even with the numbers it's the buzz and tracking thread that's the real value here. Getting dailies a few hours early is nice but ultimately not as big a deal as what the other users provide with presales tracking.
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11 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:
This is the moment when TG and AVATAR cross paths!I think Top Gun might still be ahead with today's gross by just a hair, 100k or less. Should be close to 2m, 603.9 vs 603.789 for avatar
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52 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:
Yeah I can't see anything higher than low 50's for L&T
50 seems like the over/under to me. It'll be less than 10m on Thursday, and I think +50% then +40% is more than reasonable.
Homecoming +53% then +30%
Far from home +50%, +35%
As likely to go under 50 as it is to go over imo
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Basically the same thing that happened last time.
Anyway, not sure if bigger Tuesday increase is a real thing or a minions fluke last week.
I'll guess
Thor 14-14.5
Minions 8
Top Gun 2.7
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Yeah, with a weekday level this week in the low 2s I'm also thinking 700 is out for top gun, and that's counting on a labor day expansion where it adds another 15-ish million from there to the end the way jurassic world did. Last week it looked like a real possibility after the holiday lasted through tuesday and even wednesday came in really strong.
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14 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:
Yearly rankings:
- Avatar: The Way of Water - $800 million
- Top Gun: Maverick - $700 million
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $600 million
- Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - $410 million
- Jurassic World: Dominion - $380 million
- The Batman - $370 million
- Minions: The Rise of Gru - $350 million
- Thor: Love and Thunder - $330 million
- Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - $190 million
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - $170 million
- DC League of Super Pets - $150 million
- Uncharted - $148 million
- Babylon - $145 million
- Black Adam - $140 million
- Elvis - $130 million
- Ticket to Paradise - $130 million
- Shazam! Fury of the Gods - $125 million
- Lightyear - $120 million
- I Wanna Dance with Somebody - $120 million
- Bullet Train - $110 million
- The Lost City - $105 million
- Nope - $102 million
- Don't Worry Darling - $100 million
Good list. As with everything in the internet age it's a winner take all market, full recovery for the big blockbusters, not so much for the mid-range hits. A couple others might cross the 100m mark but possible some you have going over might not quite make it. 15 seems like a good target.
300+ 100-300 25-100 2022 8 15 2021 1 13 30 2020 2 10 2019 10 21 58 2018 6 28 61 2017 8 25 59 2016 9 21 68 2015 6 23 66 -
The late presale rush might indicate somewhat better walk-ups than I was thinking before, people buying tickets online day of or just a day before. Was thinking 130-145 before, now I think 140 looks like a good bet, maybe up to 155?
29+42+41+33 for an initial guess.
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If it tracks with DM3 for Wed/Thurs that'd put it at 10 to 10.5, but I suspect the holiday/Tuesday effect was a bit bigger this year so I'll guess more like 9.5
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2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Something not right with Minions number.
It should be 18.5-18.75
Deadline wrote it up as 18.9 in the morning at like 10/11am pacific, then edited their article a few minutes later to the 17m studio number.
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That's an incredible tuesday, must be lots of holiday spillover. 18.9 for minions per deadline (they just edited the article to 17.53m). On Monday I was thinking it would be down in the 8-9m range on Wed/Thu but now not so sure, 10-ish might be closer.
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1 hour ago, Jiffy said:
Is that a prediction or insider info?
Nothing insider here, just my guess.
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June ended really strong, 968.8 is 84.7% of the 2016-2019 average june grosses. First half of the year 63.4%.
July to me looks like it'll come in just a bit under June's gross, 925 or so, which would be 73% of the previous average.
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3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:
Theaters here didn’t have late showings yesterday. Many movies stopped at 6ish
Monday still bigger than it would have been without the holiday, so daytime shows were that much stronger to make up for the lack of evening showtimes.
Edit to add since there's no weekday thread yet I'm expecting around 11 for minions today and 3.5-ish for top gun.
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Consensus seemed to be Thurs should have been closer to 9m, that it went significantly above probably means it did a little better outside of metro areas where most of the tracking comes from is my guess.
What kind of friday is minions looking at, high 20s to 30-ish is what I gather from the tracking thread. DM3 basically held even Friday to Saturday, Sunday might be down 5-10%, Monday down 15-25%...
10.75+29+29+27+23 seems reasonable if a little on the conservative side.
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Biggest tuesday increases were animated movies, Finding Dory 2nd Tuesday was +40% and $4.5m all the way back in 2016, Hotel Transylvania 3 always seemed like the most impressive to me, first tuesday was +70% and $3.5m. In 2019 lotta movies did really well, Aladdin +65% and $3m 2nd Tues, Lion King 45% and $9m then 60% and $6m, Toy Story 4 was 45% and $6.5m
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Yeah that's what I have right now, 635-ish with a small labor day bump. Jurassic World expanded the weekend before labor day weekend, made just over a million the week before the expansion, and another 12.3m from there to the end. Top Gun I think will be just a touch higher leading into labor day so I think it depends on how much of a push it gets, could take it up into the 640s, maybe more but I wouldn't bet on it at this point.
Edit: looking again, 660 with another 10-15 if the expansion is bigger.
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I'll guess top gun comes in between 5 and 5.5 today
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I just noticed Friday Nov 11th is veteran's day, so probably a smaller saturday bump than normal.