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MattW

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    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

    10m on OD for Little Women? 
     

    I hope so but that seems a bit much? Unless the trackers here can say otherwise, I’m being more conservative with 5-6m

    Yeah 5-6 would be plenty good. Wolf of Wall Street did 9m opening day and through Sunday the 5th had made 63m and 116 total dom. Same ratios with a 6m OD is 42 and 75m. And I suspect little women is less OD loaded.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    10 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

    ohh so I posted it. I thought I deleted it 😛

    basically the Friday hourly numbers suggest $65mn plus number at least. I went to TFA thread and yeah both RTH and Deadline had it over 125+ OD.

     

    Now I am not saying Disney fudged it. Just that they gave $57mn numbers, actuals might have come lower. At end of day $119.xx is actual opening day and since no one really care about previews reporting, they didn't bother correcting it and we assumed that $62mn is true Friday.

     

    That would make sense in lot of areas.

    Interesting. I've wondered for a while how precise preview numbers actually are. Do you have access to see more accurately for past movies or just the current numbers?  What were IW and EG's true Thurs/Fri split?

    THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

    Took my son tonight and had a strange experience i've never had before. They didn't show any previews before the movie started.

     

    We got to our seats at 8:25 for an 8:30 movie. The pre-show stuff ended at 8:30, then we had about 8 min worth of commercials - coca cola bears, girl talking to reindeer, disney+ and a couple of others. After that I was expecting 10-15 min of previews but the LucasFilm card came up and the movie started. 

     

    This will be an interesting movie to follow over the holidays. There are parts of the movie I loved, and parts I didn't care for as much. Something of a mixed bag, but the highs were really high. Will be interesting to see where WOM lands over the next week. i can see why the critics were somewhat harsh, want to see if the GA feels the same way. They might, but they might enjoy it alot more than the critics did. It feels like a SW movie and moves quickly.

     

    FWIW, we were at a 16 screen multi-plex that we haven't been to before because my son had a fundraiser before the movie - so we weren't at the theaters by our house. Of the 16 screens, they were showing SW on 11 of them. Had 1 each for Jumanji, Cats, Richard Jewell, Queen & slim and Knives Out.

     

    Before this year it was just a commercial for popcorn and coke after the trailers. Earlier this year it became one commercial in the middle of the trailers, and the last few movies I've been to there were 3 or 4 commercials with 4 or 5 trailers.  This is at the local chain and Cinemark theaters I go to.

    THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by MattW

    So disney ends the year with 3.75-3.80b dom and 7.20-7.25b os

    $11billies worldwide for a single studio.

    August 2015 Universal surpassed the record single year gross that Fox set the previous year of $5.5 billion.

    https://variety.com/2015/film/news/universal-box-office-jurassic-world-record-1201557246/

    Four  Five years later it has doubled.

    Spoiler

     

    OS estimates for the calendar year

    Ralph 150

    Poppins 100

    Ep9 450

    Frozen 800

    375.13

    238.52

    695.13

    701.445

    639.356

    1112.92

    1939.43

     

     

    THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, bleachella said:

    It's funny that it's performing weaker than TLJ in the most markets but randomly set opening day record in my country. I guess it's up to us to save the international box office, who needs China when you have Finland!

    If every man, woman, child and squirrel in Finland goes four times it should be fine.

     

    • Like 1
    • Haha 4

    THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Spoiler

    12/19/2019 36 36
    12/20/2019 82 46
    12/21/2019 134 52
    12/22/2019 176 42
    Weekend 1   140
    Week 1   176
         
    12/23/2019 201 25
    12/24/2019 216 15
    12/25/2019 241 25
    12/26/2019 268 27
    12/27/2019 296 28
    12/28/2019 324 28
    12/29/2019 344 20
    Weekend 2   76
    Week 2   168
         
    12/30/2019 358 14
    12/31/2019 368 10
    1/1/2020 384 16
    1/2/2020 392 8
    1/3/2020 402 10
    1/4/2020 415 13
    1/5/2020 423 8
    Weekend 3   31
    Week 3   79
         
    1/6/2020 425.5 2.5
    1/7/2020 429 3.5
    1/8/2020 431 2
    1/9/2020 433 2
    1/10/2020 437 4
    1/11/2020 444 7
    1/12/2020 448.5 4.5
    Weekend 4   15.5
    Week 4   25.5

    This feels too low, I think I'm getting swept up in the negative wave.  

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by MattW

    Here's a rough guess at what level star wars will be at through the holidays.

    Spoiler

     

    12/19/2019 40 40
    12/20/2019 90 50
    12/21/2019 145 55
    12/22/2019 192 47
    Weekend 1   152
    Week 1   192
         
    12/23/2019 222 30
    12/24/2019 242 20
    12/25/2019 277 35
    12/26/2019 315 38
    12/27/2019 349 34
    12/28/2019 384 35
    12/29/2019 409 25
    Weekend 2   94
    Week 2   217
         
    12/30/2019 427 18
    12/31/2019 441 14
    1/1/2020 461 20
    1/2/2020 471 10
    1/3/2020 484 13
    1/4/2020 501 17
    1/5/2020 511 10
    Weekend 3   40
    Week 3   102
         
    1/6/2020 514.5 3.5
    1/7/2020 519.5 5
    1/8/2020 522.5 3
    1/9/2020 525.3 2.8
    1/10/2020 530.3 5
    1/11/2020 539.3 9
    1/12/2020 544.9 5.6
    Weekend 4   19.6
    Week 4   33.9

     

    Edit: The 25-29th is probably too high. I loosely modeled it after hobbit2 but even pushing things down a bit, those days still look a bit too rich.  

     

     

    • Like 1

    Weekend Thread: Actuals - Jumanji 2 $59.25M | Frozen 2 $19.07M | Knives Out $9.14M | Richard Jewell $4.68M | Black Christmas $4.24M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 hour ago, edroger3 said:

    If true, for the first time (in forever) F2 is under F1 same day in release. Overall F2 is up 174,96 M$ 

     

    F1 F2
        15.504.088    
        11.037.812    
        26.840.236       42.205.262  
        25.343.182       50.041.031  
        15.207.908       38.017.065  
          2.504.648       12.771.012  
          2.500.537       20.791.791  
          1.831.849       24.080.546  
          1.867.176       14.960.468  
          6.723.820       34.130.914  
        15.063.237       32.363.967  
          9.829.173       19.482.892  
          2.051.152         3.187.895  
          2.463.619         5.336.670  
          1.720.122         2.824.629  
          1.715.514         2.730.406  
          5.097.211         7.816.054  
        10.144.815       16.050.532  
          7.326.112       11.298.128  
          1.598.740         1.890.910  
          2.032.330         3.585.256  
          1.790.607         2.034.899  
          2.198.122         1.760.000  

    Dec 19 vs Dec 12. I think lining them up by the exact day would be better.

     

    Friday $66,498 $42,205,262
    Saturday $92,698 $50,041,031
    Sunday $84,194 $38,017,065
    Monday $47,725 $12,771,012
    Tuesday $51,724 $20,791,974
    Wednesday $15,161,249 $24,080,546
    Thursday $11,037,812 $14,960,468
    Friday $26,840,236 $34,130,914
    Saturday $25,343,182 $32,363,967
    Sunday $15,207,908 $19,482,892
    Monday $2,504,648 $3,187,895
    Tuesday $2,500,537 $5,336,770
    Wednesday $1,831,849 $2,824,699
    Thursday $1,867,176 $2,730,406
    Friday $6,723,820 $7,816,954
    Saturday $15,063,237 $16,050,532
    Sunday $9,829,173 $11,298,128
    Monday $2,051,152 $1,890,910
    Tuesday $2,463,619 $3,585,256
    Wednesday $1,720,122 $2,034,899
    Thursday $1,715,514 $1,760,000
    Friday $5,097,211  
    Saturday $10,144,815  
    Sunday $7,326,112  

     

    Not that I think F2 will have as big of a holiday, but F2 is ahead every day except Monday the 9th despite opening earlier.  This weekend will probably be lower, but it's still doing impressively well.

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1

    Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Since this used to be the franchise wars thread here's a little franchise of a different sort:

    - Inside Job (2010)

    - Too Big to Fail (2011)

    - Margin Call (2011)

    - The Big Short (2015)

    Too Big to Fail is an HBO movie and clearly on slightly lower level as far as the overall feel and flow of it, but I still enjoy it.  Margin Call and The Big Short are some of my favorites.

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