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MattW

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    THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    A conservative guess from here:

    Sunday gets a 40% drop (sonic and dumbledore last year both did around 40%)

    ~50m weekdays this week (16+14+10.5+9.5), more like Furious 7 than sonic, I don't see a mega opener following sonics weekdays which was in its 2nd week.

    ~70m next FSS (+110%, +50%, -30%)

    = 325 ish

     

    • Like 2

    Weekend Thread - 3/17-19 | Weekend Est. - Shazam II $30.5M, Scream VI $17.5M, Creed III $15.4M, LXV $5.8M, #AintMan $4.1M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, excel1 said:

    Can we all admit WB somehow squeezing $67m opening weekend out of BLACK ADAM was actually extremely good for what it was? Had the films reception been better, sequel would be looking at serious increase. 

    I think shazam is a victim of the dc announcements earlier this year. Had they switched places......

    Weekend Thread - 3/17-19 | Weekend Est. - Shazam II $30.5M, Scream VI $17.5M, Creed III $15.4M, LXV $5.8M, #AintMan $4.1M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

    If SHAZAM 2 is as preview heavy as the first one then $19.8m OW is on the cards.

    I think a big part of the reason the preview number is this low is because it's less fan heavy which should help the multiplier somewhat compared to other cbms from the last 2 years. Probably not that much though, I think 10x is being generous.

    Ant-Man & The Wasp: Quantumania -- Domestic Opening Weekend Contest!!

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by MattW

    On 2/8/2023 at 11:14 AM, keysersoze123 said:

    Missing 100m at this point is just not an option. I could see this finish closer to 110m than say 130m which is also a possibility. 

     

    if I have to guess I would put 111,111,111  105,234,567. PR takes it above 100m 🙂

     

    On 2/14/2023 at 8:51 AM, Goldenhour36 said:

    $105,900,000

     

    On 2/8/2023 at 7:11 PM, MattW said:

    105250750

     

    Looks like it's between these three. Gonna be a nailbiter.

     

    Edit, also titanic2187

    On 2/9/2023 at 11:25 AM, titanic2187 said:

    $106,147,385

    2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    The nominal average of 2016-2019 was $11,425m and 2022 is going to come in at 7360, about 64.4% of the average.

    RRB6KLY.png

     

    7BYu2S9.png

     

    2023's schedule looks pretty decent month by month, shouldn't have nearly as soft of a start as this year had. We'll see if Avatar can prop up january better than spiderman did last year, but from February on there seems to be very promising hits fairly evenly spread out through every month. I say maybe 70% of the 11.4b average which would put the year right at $8 billion.

    2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    I overpredicted by 100m as well but for me it was more about the underperforming thanksgiving releases... 

     

    For December I think holdovers will be in the 100-150m range, new releases other than avatar around 175-225m.

    My first guess from the limited info we have in the tracking thread is that avatar will open in the 170-200 range and from there could land anywhere from 450-550 by Dec 31st, putting the month in the low 800s probably.

     

    Year will end up at about $7.5 billion. Not bad.

     

    On 12/27/2021 at 9:24 PM, MattW said:

    For 2022 I'll predict $7.5 billion or more

    • Like 1
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