stfletch

Third weekend was a steep fall because last Monday was a holiday so presumably Sunday was inflated. My guess is the drop next weekend will be considerably less than 60%.

Still feeling pretty confident in my Dom under TFA and WW over Avatar prediction for that club.

Final Update of my table showing Fandango Pulse Sales of 2nd Weekend Factor between AEG vs AIW as of Thursday-End. I would have updated to including Friday numbers and made updated estimates for Saturday and Sunday through the weekend but... Pulse went down AGAIN. So this is what we have.... 2019-04-22 2019-04-23 2019-04-24 2019-04-25 MON TUE WED THU 2019-04-26 FRI 3.06 2.30 1.62 1.41 2019-04-27 SAT 3.08 2.49 1.77 1.60 2019-04-28 SUN 3.45 2.77 2.01 1.80 The factors seem to drop about 10% further going into last days or so I'm gonna drop the Sat and Sun number a little correspondingly to get final "day before" factors of: FRI 1.41 SAT 1.60 x 0.9 = 1.44 SUN 1.80 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 1.45 Which if we apply to the Infinity War 2nd Weekend totals we get: AIW Factor AEG Est. FRI $31,456,749 x 1.41 = $44,342,675 SAT $46,676,705 x 1.44 = $67,044,891 SUN $36,644,356 x 1.45 = $53,282,680 TOTAL $114,777,810 $164,670,245 I think this should be pretty close to the weekend total, but we'll see. Friday value seems to be pretty close to the early estimates from @RtheEnd and @Charlie Jatinder are giving us which gives me confidence this presale comparison to AIW is pretty indicative.

Factor of Fandango Pulse pre-sale units between AEG and AIW as of end of Monday and end of Tuesday. Factor is coming down because AIW was able to increase a lot more in relative terms from a much lower level. By Thursday night, the factor might give us a reasonable estimate by comparing to AIW 2nd weekend. 2019-04-22 2019-04-23 MON TUE 2019-04-26 FRI 3.06 2.30 2019-04-27 SAT 3.08 2.49 2019-04-28 SUN 3.45 2.77

12.00 251m So holding at 20m per hour

A little over 3x higher.

I tried comparing Fandango Pulse Sales for this weekend against both AIW second weekend and AEG first weekend, similar to how did things for the first weekend. Unfortunately neither method gave sensible numbers (the former estimates way too high because AEG 2nd weekend presales are so much higher than AIW 2nd weekend presales and the later estimates way too low because the presales were so much higher for AEG first weekend than this weekend). Oh well at least the estimate tell me it will fall somewhere between $21M and $366M! lol

I remember the BOM forum days! I used to post there quite a bit. Then I stopped tracking BO for a bit and when I got back into it, there was no forum, just the main site. Took me a while to find this site and a lot of familiar faces had transposed over. Whatever happened to the BOM forum?

Insane numbers. I know its unlikely but if it hits the top end of that range, that's $400M I'm just 4 days!!

Also. I dont think anyone has mentioned this yet. But with actuals the combined boxoffice for the weekend was over $400 million!

LOL yeah remember that, and the one I did in Brazil forum astronaut on moon with I think holding a beer and looking at earth in the distance and I put something like, forget everything that had come before and everything you've ever known. Something to that effect  Someone mentioned @RtheEnd's last super kick post earlier in the thread and he replied about it. Hope this doesn't mean it's only an 82 Sunday!!

I got tickets for CC2019, first time I ever managed it. But only for the Sunday, so all the reveals will be done by then I imagine. 😞

I just realized that the amount Endgame Actuals end up being above Estimates could be larger that the 2nd place finisher! Its basically reduced all the other movies weekend box office totals to rounding errors, lol.

205 at 10.15

Less than 3 hours till I see Endgame for the first time! Currently grabbing a quick lunch and then hope to be in line 2 hours before the start. Damn you non-reserved seating!

I know right! Who can't predict exactly on the nose! 😉

Thanks! My job is basically financial analysis so it's nice to be also to use those skills on something I enjoy. And yeah, I'm sure there is a reason for the arbitrarily changing cap, but I can't figure out what it is yet.

So the way AKValley's Fandango Pulse tracker so consistently has AIW capping out around 3000 for the top Avengers: Endgame number made me (and some others here @Porthos @VenomXXR @Menor @Stewart) think there is some kind of cap and that certainly seems to be the case. Here is the TOTAL number of units given each hour for all movies for this week so far... Look how often it is capping out at either 3000, or 4000, no way that is random chance. Clearly the number of units sold would actually have been way above those number in some instances. There are a few hours where it does go above 4000, so I'm betting that (for some reason), each hour either caps out at 3,000, 4000, or 5,000. If its below that we see the actual number, if it's above the cap for the hour we are missing some units. Of course this means that Endgame has been doing even better in the last couple of days than we thought. EDIT: Note to say that since I probably wasn't clear, I'm sure it's Fandango Pulse itself that is capping out, rather than AKValley's scraper. 22/04/19 00:00 2738 22/04/19 01:00 1105 22/04/19 02:00 720 22/04/19 03:00 431 22/04/19 04:00 295 22/04/19 05:00 465 22/04/19 06:00 1363 22/04/19 07:00 2905 22/04/19 08:00 3843 22/04/19 09:00 3814 22/04/19 10:00 2886 22/04/19 11:00 3912 22/04/19 12:00 3997 22/04/19 13:00 4010 22/04/19 14:00 4080 22/04/19 15:00 3867 22/04/19 16:00 4119 22/04/19 17:00 3787 22/04/19 18:00 4000 22/04/19 19:00 4000 22/04/19 20:00 4000 22/04/19 21:00 4052 22/04/19 22:00 4254 22/04/19 23:00 4230 23/04/19 00:00 4072 23/04/19 01:00 2618 23/04/19 02:00 1397 23/04/19 03:00 796 23/04/19 04:00 696 23/04/19 05:00 1182 23/04/19 06:00 2638 23/04/19 07:00 2800 23/04/19 08:00 1862 23/04/19 09:00 3931 23/04/19 10:00 3839 23/04/19 11:00 4000 23/04/19 12:00 3000 23/04/19 13:00 4000 23/04/19 14:00 4000 23/04/19 15:00 3000 23/04/19 16:00 3000 23/04/19 17:00 4000 23/04/19 18:00 4000 23/04/19 19:00 3000 23/04/19 20:00 4000 23/04/19 21:00 4000 23/04/19 22:00 3000 23/04/19 23:00 4360 24/04/19 00:00 4286 24/04/19 01:00 3452 24/04/19 02:00 1946 24/04/19 03:00 1153 24/04/19 04:00 1010 24/04/19 05:00 1798 24/04/19 06:00 3493 24/04/19 07:00 3826 24/04/19 08:00 3644 24/04/19 09:00 3999 24/04/19 10:00 4000 24/04/19 11:00 4000 24/04/19 12:00 4000 24/04/19 13:00 4000 24/04/19 14:00 4000 24/04/19 15:00 3000 24/04/19 16:00 4000 24/04/19 17:00 4000 24/04/19 18:00 4000 24/04/19 19:00 4000 24/04/19 20:00 4000 24/04/19 21:00 4000 24/04/19 22:00 4000 24/04/19 23:00 4105 25/04/19 00:00 4399 25/04/19 01:00 3118 25/04/19 02:00 2773 25/04/19 03:00 1769 25/04/19 04:00 1127 25/04/19 05:00 2704 25/04/19 06:00 3687 25/04/19 07:00 2718 25/04/19 08:00 3983 25/04/19 09:00 4000 25/04/19 10:00 4000 25/04/19 11:00 4000 25/04/19 12:00 4000 25/04/19 13:00 4000 25/04/19 14:00 4000 25/04/19 15:00 4000 25/04/19 16:00 3000 25/04/19 17:00 4000 25/04/19 18:00 4000 25/04/19 19:00 4000 25/04/19 20:00 3000

Very much in line with what I estimated based on Fandango Pulse comparison between Endgane and Infinity War. If I had to pick a number I'd say $60M

Thank you! I enjoy the number crunching and glad you and a few others thought it was useful. Now I'm just super hyped to see this thing! Gotta stay spoiler free until Saturday 3pm.

My previous methodology based the Thu-Sun split of the approx. 360,000 tickets that occured while Pulse was down on the first day after Pulse was back up. However, I think that first day probably would have had a much higher proportion of sales for the Thursday showing. So, as an alternative I used the split based on the first couple of days of pre-sales for Infinity War and this is what we get! AIW: MON TUE WED THU THU 135,699 150,926 170,797 204,244 FRI 119,025 136,046 156,701 177,694 SAT 95,621 108,364 123,769 136,023 SUN 51,258 58,847 67,711 74,892 TOTAL 401,603 454,183 518,978 592,853 AEG: THU 277,621 291,403 310,132 FRI 221,351 238,830 260,578 SAT 184,166 197,792 214,937 SUN 101,281 109,966 121,135 TOTAL 784,420 837,992 906,783 Factor: MON TUE WED THU 2.05 1.93 1.82 FRI 1.86 1.76 1.66 SAT 1.93 1.83 1.74 SUN 1.98 1.87 1.79 Estimate: AIW Factor AEG Est. THU $39,000,000 x 1.82 = $70,816,036 FRI $67,334,939 x 1.66 = $111,971,392 SAT $82,131,612 x 1.74 = $142,629,596 SUN $69,231,632 x 1.79 = $123,855,559 TOTAL $257,698,183 $449,272,584 So conclusive proof that previews will be between $58M and $71M! Lol, or not.... But I still think they will come in around $60-65M.

So Final Estimate for Thursday Preview based on my existing Methodology is $58MM. However, see my next post! AIW: MON TUE WED THU THU 135,699 150,926 170,797 204,244 FRI 119,025 136,046 156,701 177,694 SAT 95,621 108,364 123,769 136,023 SUN 51,258 58,847 67,711 74,892 TOTAL 401,603 454,183 518,978 592,853 AEG: MON TUE WED THU 222,280 236,062 254,791 FRI 188,824 206,303 228,051 SAT 175,121 188,747 205,892 SUN 120,786 129,471 140,640 TOTAL 707,010 760,582 829,373 Factor: MON TUE WED THU 1.64 1.56 1.49 FRI 1.59 1.52 1.46 SAT 1.83 1.74 1.66 SUN 2.36 2.20 2.08 Estimate: AIW Factor AEG Est. THU $39,000,000 x 1.49 = $58,179,219 FRI $67,334,939 x 1.46 = $97,994,295 SAT $82,131,612 x 1.66 = $136,627,193 SUN $69,231,632 x 2.08 = $143,798,235 TOTAL $257,698,183 $436,598,942

Last update before we start to get actual numbers! AIW Date Days to Open AIW Tickets AEG Date AEG Tickets AEG/AIW Notes 2018-03-16 41 29,410 2018-03-17 40 16,237 2018-03-18 39 10,631 2018-03-19 38 14,574 2018-03-20 37 9,366 2018-03-21 36 8,281 2018-03-22 35 6,101 2018-03-23 34 3,753 2018-03-24 33 2,426 2018-03-25 32 3,655 2018-03-26 31 5,191 2018-03-27 30 4,647 2018-03-28 29 4,241 2018-03-29 28 3,060 2018-03-30 27 2,134 2018-03-31 26 2,471 2018-04-01 25 3,662 2018-04-02 24 7,257 2018-04-03 23 6,866 2019-04-02 330,000 Pulse down entire day 2018-04-04 22 7,917 2019-04-03 40,000 Pulse down until around 7pm CST 2018-04-05 21 5,692 2019-04-04 30,292 5.3 2018-04-06 20 3,618 2019-04-05 17,428 4.8 2018-04-07 19 3,383 2019-04-06 11,697 3.5 2018-04-08 18 6,363 2019-04-07 16,137 2.5 2018-04-09 17 10,828 2019-04-08 28,219 2.6 2018-04-10 16 8,670 2019-04-09 24,701 2.8 2018-04-11 15 13,960 2019-04-10 25,617 1.8 2018-04-12 14 13,332 2019-04-11 23,680 1.8 2018-04-13 13 7,614 2019-04-12 15,554 2.0 2018-04-14 12 5,602 2019-04-13 11,720 2.1 2018-04-15 11 9,314 2019-04-14 17,436 1.9 2018-04-16 10 18,403 2019-04-15 26,081 1.4 2018-04-17 9 19,431 2019-04-16 28,287 1.5 2018-04-18 8 23,790 2019-04-17 34,783 1.5 2018-04-19 7 18,788 2019-04-18 28,851 1.5 2018-04-20 6 14,281 2019-04-19 23,629 1.7 2018-04-21 5 12,368 2019-04-20 20,956 1.7 2018-04-22 4 27,180 2019-04-21 36,215 1.3 2018-04-23 3 48,861 2019-04-22 55,387 1.1 2018-04-24 2 55,376 2019-04-23 59,396 1.1 2018-04-25 1 68,137 2019-04-24 75,592 1.1 2018-04-26 0 76,734 * Estimate based on using Fandango Comment that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week **Estimate based on the fact we had about 1/4th of the days data

AIW Date Days to Open AIW Tickets AEG Date AEG Tickets AEG/AIW Notes 2018-03-16 41 29,410 2018-03-17 40 16,237 2018-03-18 39 10,631 2018-03-19 38 14,574 2018-03-20 37 9,366 2018-03-21 36 8,281 2018-03-22 35 6,101 2018-03-23 34 3,753 2018-03-24 33 2,426 2018-03-25 32 3,655 2018-03-26 31 5,191 2018-03-27 30 4,647 2018-03-28 29 4,241 2018-03-29 28 3,060 2018-03-30 27 2,134 2018-03-31 26 2,471 2018-04-01 25 3,662 2018-04-02 24 7,257 2018-04-03 23 6,866 2019-04-02 330,000 Pulse down entire day 2018-04-04 22 7,917 2019-04-03 40,000 Pulse down until around 7pm CST 2018-04-05 21 5,692 2019-04-04 30,292 5.3 2018-04-06 20 3,618 2019-04-05 17,428 4.8 2018-04-07 19 3,383 2019-04-06 11,697 3.5 2018-04-08 18 6,363 2019-04-07 16,137 2.5 2018-04-09 17 10,828 2019-04-08 28,219 2.6 2018-04-10 16 8,670 2019-04-09 24,701 2.8 2018-04-11 15 13,960 2019-04-10 25,617 1.8 2018-04-12 14 13,332 2019-04-11 23,680 1.8 2018-04-13 13 7,614 2019-04-12 15,554 2.0 2018-04-14 12 5,602 2019-04-13 11,720 2.1 2018-04-15 11 9,314 2019-04-14 17,436 1.9 2018-04-16 10 18,403 2019-04-15 26,081 1.4 2018-04-17 9 19,431 2019-04-16 28,287 1.5 2018-04-18 8 23,790 2019-04-17 34,783 1.5 2018-04-19 7 18,788 2019-04-18 28,851 1.5 2018-04-20 6 14,281 2019-04-19 23,629 1.7 2018-04-21 5 12,368 2019-04-20 20,956 1.7 2018-04-22 4 27,180 2019-04-21 36,215 1.3 2018-04-23 3 48,861 2019-04-22 55,387 1.1 2018-04-24 2 55,376 2019-04-23 59,396 1.1 2018-04-25 1 68,137 2018-04-26 0 76,734 * Estimate based on using Fandango Comment that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week **Estimate based on the fact we had about 1/4th of the days data

As expected, my Thursday Previews Estimate went down slightly based on Tuesday EOD Fandango figures. Still over $60M though! AIW: MON TUE WED THU THU 135,699 150,926 170,797 204,244 FRI 119,025 136,046 156,701 177,694 SAT 95,621 108,364 123,769 136,023 SUN 51,258 58,847 67,711 74,892 TOTAL 401,603 454,183 518,978 592,853 AEG: MON TUE THU 222,280 236,062 FRI 188,824 206,303 SAT 175,121 188,747 SUN 120,786 129,471 TOTAL 707,010 760,582 Factor: MON TUE THU 1.64 1.56 FRI 1.59 1.52 SAT 1.83 1.74 SUN 2.36 2.20 Estimate: AIW Factor AEG Est. THU $39,000,000 x 1.56 = $60,999,464 FRI $67,334,939 x 1.52 = $102,108,138 SAT $82,131,612 x 1.74 = $143,055,485 SUN $69,231,632 x 2.20 = $152,318,286 TOTAL $257,698,183 $458,481,374 Estimate based on Monday EOD and Methodology in Spoiler Tags below.