Caladbolg

I don't think $1b is completely dead yet. TFA is $260m away. From this point onward Avatar made $397m more (not including SE release). So even if/when TFA falls behind Avatar in the dailies, and it may starting Monday, as long it doesn't completely collapse it could make that $260m.

I wonder how Disney will estimate Sunday. The first Sunday they were off in a good way, too low. Second Sunday they were off but too high.

RotK opened on a Wednesday as did the rest of the LOTR films. Go back to 1998 to find another year where Christmas and New Year's were on Fridays, You've Got Mail and Prince of Egypt were the 2 new releases for that Dec 18-20th frame, different era for movies though. Still there are some similarities in drops then, 2009(the other year), and now. There are several other movies that opened a week or so before Christmas but since the days don't line up the comparisons can be off.

The bickering in the last few pages of the thread

lol "only" The meltdowns this week are going to be hilarious

34.2m puts on track now for $89-93m. Awesome for a 3rd weekend.

With those OS numbers should be passed HP8 WW. AoU will fall over the weekend with possibly FF7/TA as well putting TFA No 4 world wide in just 18 days.

$100m+ this weekend would be insanely epic. Some more records it could pass this weekend: $89,269,066- Winter and January Weekend Record (American Sniper) New Years Day- $25,274,008 (Avatar) Highest grossing day in January- $34,547,284 (American Sniper)

BOM going more conservative this weekend, not predicting a $100m+ 3rd wknd

It does seem steep but a possibility. Since New Years Eve normally sees 20% or more drops, add in the College Football Playoff it could impact movies. CFP starts at 4pm (Eastern) and another game starts at 8pm ET, so unless a ton people go this morning then yeah. If it does drop that hard hopefully it makes it back up with a bigger than "normal" Friday bump.

If it was like $950m-999m I think Disney would expand it. Hell they let Tangled stay in theaters for 27 weeks just so it could cross $200m.

Titanic adjusted would be neat to see on that chart

#frontloaded #MendelsonVindicated

estimates down from Sunday. Looks like the weather is indeed having a marginal impact

It fail harder than ROTK because of TFA's enormous $57m previews. Take out that and the drop is only 19.5% compared to ROTK's 30%. Still not a good comparison though because ROTK opened on a Wednesday, deflating the weekend some.

How could you not be convinced? It's sitting at $545m with another huge week and weekend coming. It's not about to just disappear....

Yeah but they gave a specific $1.2m previews for Daddy's Home which is normally enough to open a weekend thread

TFA 3rd weekend is going to be just as epic. $100m+

I wouldn't say it's a lock. Some of the biggest December movies Christmas Eve % drops: Titanic 41 Avatar 32 Fellowship of the Ring 54 The Two Towers 42 Return of the King 40 The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe 40 An Unexpected Journey 46 Desolation of Smaug 33 Battle of the Five Armies 39 Meet the Fockers 42 I am Legend 57 It's difficult to contemplate The Force Awakens dropping less than 30% when looking at other films. But if any movie is going to defy Christmas Eve, it will be Star Wars.

From that deadline article. It's the best non opening Wednesday

Why would they want to piss off Sony though? Sony is allowing Spidey to be a part of the MCU,

Disney should consider moving Ep VIII to December in 2017, (it's void of anything major) before WB decides to put Justine League 1 there or another studio.

weekend thread: