mahnamahna

6/24-6/26 Finding Dory: $80.5 million ($291 million) Independence Day - Resurgence: $39 million Central Intelligence: $21 million ($75 million) The Shallows: $16 million Free State of Jones: $13 million The Conjuring 2: $7.5 million ($87 million) Now You See Me 2: $5.5 million ($52 million) Me Before You: $3 million ($52 million) Warcraft: $2.5 million ($43 million) The Neon Demon: $2.5 million 7/1-7/4 Finding Dory: $45 million/$57.5 million ($393 million) The BFG: $31 million/$38 million Independence Day - Resurgence: $23 million/$31 million ($93 million) The Purge - Election Year: $16 million/$19.5 million The Legend of Tarzan: $15 million/$18 million Central Intelligence: $13 million/$15.5 million ($103 million) Free State of Jones: $7.5 million/$9 million ($37 million) The Shallows: $6 million/$7 million ($28 million) Now You See Me 2: $3 million/$3.5 million ($58 million) The Conjuring 2: $2.5 million/$3 million ($92 million) 7/8-7/10 The Secret Lives of Pets: $84.5 million Finding Dory: $20.5 million ($421 million) The BFG: $15 million ($60 million) Independence Day - Resurgence: $11 million ($110 million) Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $9 million The Purge - Election Year: $7 million ($31 million) Central Intelligence: $6.5 million ($113 million) The Legend of Tarzan: $6 million ($27 million) Free State of Jones: $4.5 million ($44 million) The Shallows: $3 million ($32 million) 7/15-7/17 Ghostbusters: $67 million The Secret Lives of Pets: $53 million ($191 million) Finding Dory: $12.5 million ($446 million) The BFG: $10 million ($79 million) Independence Day - Resurgence: $5.5 million ($121 million) The Infiltrator: $5 million Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $4 million ($17 million) The Purge - Election Year: $3.5 million ($38 million) Central Intelligence: $3 million ($119 million) Free State of Jones: $2.5 million ($49 million) 7/22-7/24 Star Trek Beyond: $58 million Ghostbusters: $34 million ($136 million) Ice Age - Collision Course: $31 million The Secret Lives of Pets: $27 million ($244 million) Lights Out: $7 million The BFG: $5.5 million ($90 million) Finding Dory: $5.5 million ($456 million) The Infiltrator: $2.5 million ($10 million) Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $2 million ($21 million) The Purge - Election Year: $1.5 million ($41 million) 7/29-7/31 Jason Bourne: $78 million Star Trek Beyond: $27 million ($114 million) Bad Moms: $24 million Ice Age - Collision Course: $17.5 million ($66 million) Ghostbusters: $16 million ($167 million) The Secret Lives of Pets: $14 million ($271 million) Nerve: $4 million The BFG: $4 million ($98 million) Finding Dory: $3.5 million ($463 million) Lights Out: $3 million ($13 million) 8/5-8/7 Suicide Squad: $107 million Jason Bourne: $35 million ($148 million) Bad Moms: $16.5 million ($57 million) The Founder: $14 million Star Trek Beyond: $12.5 million ($139 million) Ice Age - Collision Course: $10 million ($84 million) The Secret Lives of Pets: $9 million ($287 million) Ghostbusters: $8 million ($182 million) Nine Lives: $6 million The BFG: $3 million ($103 million) 8/12-8/14 Suicide Squad: $48 million ($193 million) Pete's Dragon: $34 million Sausage Party: $26 million Jason Bourne: $18.5 million ($179 million) Bad Moms: $11 million ($75 million) Florence Foster Jenkins: $10 million The Founder: $8 million ($27 million) Star Trek Beyond: $6.5 million ($150 million) Ghostbusters: $5 million ($190 million) Ice Age - Collision Course: $4.5 million ($91 million) 8/19-8/21 Suicide Squad: $27 million ($235 million) Ben-Hur: $23 million Pete's Dragon: $20 million ($61 million) Kubo and the Two Strings: $16.5 million Sausage Party: $10.5 million ($43 million) Jason Bourne: $9.5 million ($194 million) War Dogs: $8 million Bad Moms: $7 million ($86 million) Florence Foster Jenkins: $6.5 million ($20 million) The Founder: $5 million ($35 million) 8/26-8/28 Don't Breathe: $23 million Suicide Squad: $17 million ($260 million) Pete's Dragon: $15 million ($81 million) Kubo and the Two Strings: $11.5 million ($32 million) Ben-Hur: $10 million ($38 million) Jason Bourne: $6.5 million ($204 million) Sausage Party: $6 million ($52 million) Bad Moms: $5 million ($93 million) War Dogs: $4.5 million ($15 million) Florence Foster Jenkins: $4 million ($26 million) 9/2-9/5 The Light Between Oceans: $24 million/$32 million Pete's Dragon: $15.5 million/$22 million ($107 million) Suicide Squad: $14 million/$18 million ($285 million) Don't Breathe: $11 million/$13.5 million ($42 million) Kubo and the Two Strings: $10 million/$13.5 million ($49 million) Ben-Hur: $7.5 million/$9.5 mlilion ($51 million) Morgan: $6 million/$7 million Jason Bourne: $5 million/$6 million ($213 million) Bad Moms: $4 million/$5 million ($100 million) Florence Foster Jenkins: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($32 million)

Grave of the Fireflies Watership Down Akira Princess Mononoke The Wind Rises Persepolis The Triplets of Bellevue Paprika Ghost in the Shell Anomalisa Heavy Metal A Scanner Darkly All far more mature and sophisticated than the vast majority of live-action films - Hollywood or foreign. And I didn't even list the countless mature, philosophical anime TV shows that are far more complex than the typical crime procedural.

Even in the low 30s, I would expect it to be leggy enough for $100 million DOM. $1.8 million $11.2 million $12.5 million $11 million $36.5 million. Father's Day should give it a nice Sunday hold

Why wouldn't it get a 3x with zero action comedy competition until Ghostbusters? $36 million $20.5 million ($75 million) $11.5 million/$14 million ($102 million) $6 million ($112 million) $2.5 million ($117 million) $124 million DOM That's a pretty harsh predict, too, since I don't see it having 45-55% drops for its entire run. It should hold decently for July 4th and arguably next weekend if ID42 really has a sub-$40 million OW.

No there'll be more: Conjuring 2 Dory ID42 (should be able to inch across with a low 40s OW) Central Intelligence Pets Ghostbusters Star Trek 3 Ice Age 5 Bourne 5 Bad Moms Suicide Squad Sausage Patty

Don't you mean four or five? Pets, SS and Bourne 5 all have a good chance to do so. Even Ghostbusters could if WOM ends up being decent. There'll be 6 past this mark by July 4th And another 6-8 by Labor Day. Do you mean OW?

But neither were Cars 1/2, Brave, Monsters U or A Bug's Life. And I'm pretty sure he disliked all of those, too.

70%???? This isn't Warcraft

Don't forget Despicable Me!

Different type of film. Those are all tentpoles targeting teens/adults with some family crossover. Finding Dory targets families with some teen/adult crossover. They also opened far higher than Finding Dory will. TDK adjusts to around $200 million OW with inflation and 3D added in. A 3.6x after a $200 million+ OW is a ridiculous expectation (yet SW7 did it), whereas a 3.6x from an OW $50-80 million smaller isn't as outlandish. It's by no means a lock (3.2x-3.4x is a realistic range IMO), but Dory has a better shot at a 3.6x than the other three just because of a smaller OW, less frontloading and a demo that doesn't always rush out OW.

But animated films tend to be leggier than tentpoles, so a 3x is fairly standard. TS3 and Shrek 2 managed a 3x, and I expect Dory to do the same. 3.5x is up in the air, but definitely plausible. 4x will most likely not happen.

Yes, but it's so early I really don't think that's the limit. $55 million+ OD is still possible.

The comparison is remarkably similar - well-received, well-marketed Pixar sequel and well-marketed, light-hearted Illumination original. Both will be in the top 5 DOM for Summer 2016 IMO. I think both will finish above their counterparts. Dory at $450-475 million, Pets at $260-320 million.

If the reshoots don't fix the film's issues, I could see $120 million OW, $425 million DOM. Good for top 3 DOM/WW, but not enough for #1 if Dory opens to $135 million+. Especially since Passengers is gaining buzz and Sing will draw in more families than Alvin 4. Assassin's Creed will take away screens and showtimes from Rogue One, too, even if it manages to do only $40-50 million DOM.

Worst case would be around TS3's OW ($110 million), best case likely $160-165 million. $130-140 million is the safe projection for now.

Considering Zootopia and Jungle Book both did $325 million+ DOM, it would be disappointing if Dory only did $350-370 million DOM. Still a success, but barely above the original unadjusted would have been close to the lower end of expectations.

July and August should be a little more balanced - two big hits (Pets and SS), a few solid hits (Bourne 5, Star Trek 3, Ghostbusters) and I'd say 5 in the $75-125 million range (Ice Age 5, BFG, Bad Moms, Pete's Dragon, Sausage Party). Not to mention Central Intelligence and Conjuring 2 should be mid-level successes, and ID42 should do well OS. September/October should balance things out a bit since there's no Martian or Gravity this year.

With $9.2 million in previews, I don't see how it misses $125 million+ considering Minions did $6.2 million in previews and got $115 million OW.

I'd say it is more sad that only 9 films have done $72 million+ DOM by mid-June than 10 Cloverfield Lane leaving the top 10

I think Pets or Moana have a better shot. Suicide Squad definitely has a decent chance. Anything over $225 million DOM is a huge win, though

Dory and Rogue One make it 7. All it takes is one crowd-pleasing surprise hit to reach the mark.

Central Intelligence?? Fantastic Beasts and Moana have a better shot at $300 million+ DOM than Independence Day 2. That said, I do think there'll be 8-10 $300 million+ DOM grossers this year

Yes, I know. But the Academy loves recognizing solid live-action musicals, too. La-La Land also has a much, much, much better chance than Moana at Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Screenplay. If it has 8-10 other nominations besides Original Song, its chances of winning are far more likely than Moana with possibly only Animated Feature as its other nomination. It'll be a tight race for Best Original Song this year - and Miranda does have the youngest EGOT ever factor going for him, too.

And everyone expected $325-350 million DOM until April 2016 $400-415 million DOM is a great finish - it, Angry Birds, Money Monster and Conjuring 2 are all success stories. NYSM2 and X-Men: Apocalypse are disappointing, but both will end up making a slight profit. Summer 2016 is bad (TMNT 2, Alice 2 and Neighbors 2 shouldn't have opened as low as they did), but there's time for redemption. Every summer of this decade has had a 'down' period (May 14th, 2010-June 10th, 2010, June 2011, May 11th, 2012-June 7th, 2012, July 19th, 2013-August 8th, 2013, July 2014, August 2015). This summer could be following 2010's trajectory - one big hit (CW) and a bunch of underperformers for the first 1.5 months of summer, multiple big hits (Dory, Pets, ID42, Bourne 5, SS) and some mid-level hits (Ghostbusters, Central Intelligence, Conjuring 2, Star Trek 3, Ice Age 5, Bad Moms, Pete's Dragon) the rest of the summer. The lack of noise at the BO should help Dory and Central Intelligence this weekend and turn things around for Summer 2016.

Jason Bourne should do MI4/MI5 DOM numbers if it's decent.