[Weekend Estimates (pg44): Spectre 73 | Peanuts 45 | Martian 9.3 | Goosebumps 6.9 | Spies 6.09 | Important forum announcement in first post.]

10 minutes ago, movieboner said:

The Martian hold is incredible. It's predicted to drop only 19% against two new huge releases. I change my prediction to $230 million.

It's not that incredible, when you consider there's nothing to see right now except Peanuts/Spectre. Two new releases won't remove many of Martian's screens when everything else except BoS and Goosebumps is sub-$5 million. It also has strong WOM and Oscar buzz. All three of those and HT2 to a lesser degree should benefit next weekend from everything underperforming the last two weekends of October. 

 

19% is extremely impressive, but the lack of compelling October releases certainly helped in the face of Spectre/Peanuts. 

6 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Same goes for BoS' continued incredible holds in the face of Spectre, and HT2 and Goosebumps' impressive ones with Halloween being over and Peanuts opening. 

Bridge of Spies is a critically-acclaimed Oscar targeting drama, so Spectre/Peanuts were never going to hurt it much at all.

 

Goosebumps is extremely impressive, though. Should hold great next weekend as well since there's zero major releases and other than Spectre/Peanuts, not much for audiences to go see.

 

Martian should do $225-230 million, Bridge of Spies should do $80-85 million, while Goosebumps could leg its way to $85-90 million. Spectre and Peanuts should both do $175 million+ DOM. Maybe Nov-Dec will finish strong for 2015. 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

11/6-11/8

1. Spectre: $93 million
2. The Peanuts Movie: $55.5 million 
3. The Martian: $7.5 million ($194 million) 
4. Bridge of Spies: $7 million ($55 million) 
5. Goosebumps: $6 million ($65 million) 
6. Hotel Transylvania 2: $2.5 million ($159 million)
7. Burnt: $2 million ($7 million) 
8. The Last Witch Hunter: $1.5 million ($20 million)
9. Steve Jobs: $1.5 million ($16 million)
10. Woodlawn: $1.5 million ($12 million)

11/13-11/15

1. Spectre: $44 million ($167 million) 
2. The Peanuts Movie: $40.5 million ($125 million) 
3. The 33: $17 million 
4. Love the Coopers: $11 million 
5. The Martian: $6 million ($203 million)
6. Bridge of Spies: $6 million ($65 million)
7. Goosebumps: $4 million ($71 million)
8. My All-American: $2.5 million 
9. Hotel Transylvania 2: $1.5 million ($161 million)
10. Woodlawn: $1 million ($13 million)

11/20-11/22

1. Mockingjay Part 2: $162 million 
2. The Peanuts Movie: $22.5 million ($153 million) 
3. Spectre: $20 million ($197 million)
4. The Night Before: $16 million 
5. The 33: $10 million ($32 million) 
6. Love the Coopers: $8 million ($23 million)
7. The Secret in Their Eyes: $4 million 
8. Bridge of Spies: $4 million ($71 million) 
9. The Martian: $3 million ($207 million) 
10. Goosebumps: $1.5 million ($70 million)

11/25-11/29

1. The Good Dinosaur: $80.5 million/$126 million 
2. Mockingjay Part 2: $78 million/$117 million ($303 million) 
3. Creed: $27 million/$42 million 
4. The Peanuts Movie: $18 million/$26 million ($183 million) 
5. The Night Before: $14 million/$19 million ($38 million) 
6. Spectre: $13.5 million/$18 million ($218 million) 
7. Victor Frankenstein: $7 million/$11 million 
8. The 33: $6.5 million/$10 million ($44 million)
9. Love the Coopers: $6 million/$9 million ($34 million) 
10. Bridge of Spies: $3.5 million/$5 million ($77 million)

 

[The Peanuts Movie | November 6, 2015]

2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

I don't like the look of this. I also think it won't do well.

It should at least do $30-35 million OW due to Goosebumps/HT2 winding down, Pan bombing, and everything else minus Spectre being sub-$10 million. HT2 benefited similarly its OW.

Peanuts should do fine. 

 

[Weekend Estimates (pg14): Martian 11.4 | Goosebumps 10.21 | Spies 8.06 | Burnt 5.04 | Crisis 3.43 | Scouts 1.77]

13 hours ago, filmlover said:

By the Sea has been changed to a limited release (aka it's most likely being dumped given that there has been very little promotion for it to begin with).

Ahh, well if anything I could see that weekend being strong enough to do $95 million+.

1. Spectre: $44 million (from $93 million OW) 
2. The Peanuts Movie: $39 million (from $55 million OW) 
3. The 33: $16.5 million 
4. Love the Coopers: $10.5 million 
5. Bridge of Spies: $5.5 million 
6. The Martian: $5 million
7. My All-American: $3.5 million
8. Goosebumps: $3 million 
9. Burnt: $2.5 million 
10. Our Brand is Crisis: $1 million 

Yeah Nov 13 will be rough lol  but Nov. 20, 27, 4th (due to GD and MJ2 and Krampus all potentially doing $20 million+), 18th and 25th should all be excellent. 11th will be slow because there's only one major wide release. 

[Weekend Estimates (pg14): Martian 11.4 | Goosebumps 10.21 | Spies 8.06 | Burnt 5.04 | Crisis 3.43 | Scouts 1.77]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

They are gonna dump it over Thanksgiving instead, lmao. 

At least if they dumped it over October 30th, it probably could have gotten $13-18 million with how weak the frame is.

Over Thanksgiving, GD/MJ2/Creed/Night Before/Spectre/Peanuts combine for potentially $275 million+ 5 day. There's really no room for Frankenstein when there's also By the Sea, Love the Coopers and The 33 vying for audiences. 

I think this weekend's epic bombage may help Spectre/Peanuts breakout beyond what's expected of them. 

[Monday numbers: The Martian 1.22M | Spies 984k | Steve Jobs and Paranormal 535k]

8 hours ago, zackzack said:

No, just not enough good movies in the multiplex.

Martian strikes me as the kind of movie that would make $120M, or $150M at best. Since this Fall is full of lousy offerings, 

people have no other choice but to check out The Martian

 

Black Mass?

Everest?

The Walk?

Sicario?

Bridge of Spies?

Goosebumps? 

Steve Jobs? 

There's plenty of solid movies this fall... they just had a poorly conceived release date/pattern, or had poor marketing. 

[2015 100M Films - 29 down, 7 to go (Leo Bears the Blockbuster Burden!)]

On 10/26/2015, 7:38:20, CJohn said:

Lmao at your Creed, The Night Before and Daddy's Home numbers.

If WB can get Blind Side to $250 million+ DOM (in a similar release date to Creed) and American Sniper to $350 million+ DOM during January/February, I don't see how $120-125 million DOM for the only broadly appealing drama this holiday season is that ridiculous. In fact, it'd only be above Rocky Balboa and Rocky V in terms of admissions. 

Creed should benefit greatly from MJ2 + GD combining for potentially $200 million+ over the 5 day... the sellouts should cause some spillover for Creed, and also Peanuts/Spectre. Not to mention By the Sea, The 33 and Secret in Their Eyes should all do middling numbers - leaving plenty of room for an adult-skewing drama to breakout. This fall's adult dramas underperforming also helps Creed. 

The Night Before is the first major broad comedy since Vacation (Intern is a light-hearted dramedy), and with its Christmas theme, it should have sub-50% drops until Dec 25. Even against post-Thanksgiving and Star Wars/Sisters, it should hold well. With a high teens-low 20s OW, Night Before ought to be able to leg its way to $90-110 million DOM. I can see $60-70 million if it has a sub-$15 million OW, though. Should have at least a 3.5x because of its theme and release date. 

Daddy's Home is a longshot, but if SW7 has enough sellouts, it and Alvin 4 should get quite a bit of spillover, since every other movie will be an adult-skewing drama or comedy. Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg combined to $120 million DOM in their last effort, so $100 million DOM isn't that bad.

I agree none of those three are locks, but they all have breakout potential. And if they miss, there's other $100 million DOM+ contenders waiting (Sisters, Alvin 4, The Big Short, Concussion, etc) 

[2015 100M Films - 29 down, 7 to go (Leo Bears the Blockbuster Burden!)]

1. Star Wars Episode VII: $803 million
2. Jurassic World: $652 million 
3. Avengers - Age of Ultron: $459 million 
4. Mockingjay Part 2: $442 million
5. The Good Dinosaur: $376 million 
6. Inside Out: $355 million 
7. Furious 7: $352 million 
8. Minions: $335 million 
9. Spectre: $274 million 
10. The Peanuts Movie: $223 million
11. The Martian: $216 million 
12. Cinderella: $201 million 
13. Mission Impossible - Rogue Nation: $195 million 
14. Pitch Perfect 2: $184 million
15. Ant-Man: $179 million 
16. Home: $177 million
17. Hotel Transylvania 2: $169 million 
18. 50 Shades of Grey: $166 million
19. SpongeBob 2: $163 million
20. Straight Outta Compton: $161 million
21. San Andreas: $155 million 
22. Mad Max - Fury Road: $154 million 
23. Joy: $137 million
24. Insurgent: $130 million
25. Kingsman - The Secret Service: $128 million 
26. Creed: $124 million 
27. The Night Before: $113 million 
28. Spy: $111 million
29. Trainwreck: $110 million 
30. The Hateful Eight: $108 million 
31. The Revenant: $103 million 
32. Daddy's Home: $100 million 

Should be able to do 30, since November looks strong (4 strong $100 million+ contenders and 2-3 sleepers) while December has Star Wars and Oscar bait (3-4) 

[Weekend estimates: 15.90 M THE MARTIAN | 15.50 M GOOSEBUMPS | 11.37 M BOS | 10.83 M TLWH | 9.00 M HT II | 8.20 M PA: TGD | 7.27 M STEVE JOBS]

Next weekend we will be saying that about Burnt compared to Scout. 

Followed by Peanuts/Spectre combining for $140 million+ as a result of a sub-$80 million Oct 30th weekend. I really think both of those films picked the PERFECT weekend to debut. 2 straight weeks of nothing and Martian/HT2 near the end of their runs. Both should perform better than expected as the first major/must-see films in a month. 

I think November/December's broadly appealing films should benefit greatly from the underperformance of most October releases this year. However, I wouldn't be surprised if only 6-8 films do $100 million+ DOM with 5 of them doing $200 million+ DOM  and 4 of them doing $300 million+ DOM (with Spectre obviously doing $300-320 million if it does make it) 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

Updated

10/30-11/1

1. The Martian: $13 million ($187 million)
2. Goosebumps: $12 million ($59 million)
3. Our Brand is Crisis: $10 million 
4. Bridge of Spies: $9.5 million ($46 million) 
5. Hotel Transylvania 2: $7 million ($156 million)
6. Burnt: $5.5 million 
7. Steve Jobs: $5 million ($18 million) 
8. The Last Witch Hunter: $4.5 million ($18 million)
9. Scouts Guide to Zombie Apocalypse: $4 million 
10. Paranormal Activity - The Ghost Dimension: $3 million ($13 million)

11/6-11/8

1. Spectre: $102.5 million
2. The Peanuts Movie: $62,5 million 
3. Bridge of Spies: $8 million ($58 million) 
4. The Martian: $7.5 million ($198 million)
5. Our Brand is Crisis: $6.5 million ($20 million) 
6. Goosebumps: $5.5 million ($66 million)
7. The Outskirts: $4.5 million 
8. Burnt: $4 million ($11 million) 
9. Steve Jobs: $3.5 million ($23 million) 
10. Hotel Transylvania 2: $2.5 million ($160 million) 

11/13-11/15

1. Spectre: $56 million ($197 million) 
2. The Peanuts Movie: $47 million ($140 million)
3. The 33: $16.5 million 
4. Love the Coopers: $12 million 
5. By the Sea: $8.5 million 
6. Bridge of Spies: $6.5 million ($69 million) 
7. The Martian: $5.5 million ($207 million) 
8. My All-American: $3.5 million 
9. Goosebumps: $3 million ($70 million) 
10. Steve Jobs: $2.5 million ($27 million)

11/20-11/22

1. Mockingjay Part 2: $166 million 
2. The Peanuts Movie: $26 million ($175 million) 
3. Spectre: $23 million ($234 million) 
4. The Night Before: $18.5 million 
5. The 33: $9.5 million ($31 million) 
6. Love the Coopers: $7 million ($23 million)
7. Bridge of Spies: $5 million ($76 million) 
8. By the Sea: $4.5 million ($15 million)
9. The Secret in Their Eyes: $4 million 
10. The Martian: $2.5 million ($211 million)

11/25-11/29

1. Mockingjay Part 2: $79 million/$120 million ($315 million) 
2. The Good Dinosaur: $77 million/$111 million 
3. Creed: $30.5 million/$46 million 
4. The Peanuts Movie: $20.5 million/$29 million ($209 million) 
5. The Night Before: $16 million/$21.5 million ($43 million) 
6. Spectre: $15 million/$20 million ($257 million)
7. The 33: $8 million/$11.5 million ($45 million) 
8. Victor Frankenstein: $6 million/$10 million 
9. Love the Coopers: $5.5 million/$8 million ($33 million) 
10. Bridge of Spies: $4 million/$6 million ($83 million) 

 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

That be awesome for Bond and Snoopy!

These awful last two weekends of October should help out Spectre and Peanuts considerably. 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

10/30-11/1

1. Goosebumps: $14 million ($64 million) 
2. The Martian: $11.5 million ($180 million) 
3. Our Brand is Crisis: $9.5 million 
4. Bridge of Spies: $9 million ($44 million) 
5. PA5: $7 million ($24 million) 
6. Steve Jobs: $6.5 million ($22 million) 
7. Hotel Transylvania 2: $6 million ($155 million) 
8. The Last Witch Hunter: $5.5 million ($18 million) 
9. Scouts vs. Zombies: $5 million 
10. Crimson Peak: $3.5 million ($27 million) 

11/6-11/8

1. Spectre: $102.5 million
2. The Peanuts Movie: $62.5 million
3. Bridge of Spies: $7 million ($54 million) 
4. The Martian: $6.5 million ($190 million) 
5. Goosebumps: $6 million ($71 million) 
6. The Outskirts: $5.5 million 
7. Our Brand is Crisis: $5 million ($17 million)
8. Steve Jobs: $4.5 million ($29 million) 
9. The Last Witch Hunter: $2.5 million ($22 million) 
10. Hotel Transylvania 2: $2 million ($158 million) 

[The Peanuts Movie | November 6, 2015]

This has more sell-outs in the Chicago area than SPECTRE

Peanuts and Spectre both doing $75 million+ on the same weekend would be jaw dropping...

Curious to see how that turns out

[SPECTRE | 11/6/15 | Final Trailer on Page 126! | Twitter reactions coming in, STID 2.0?]

Mission Impossible 5 tracked at $35 million a week before opening lol and ended up at $55 million OW.

 

Spectre will skew slightly older than the average tentpole, so it could still do $85-95 million OW. 

 

There's still two weeks for Sony to ramp up Spectre's marketing campaign

[Cars 3 | 6.16.2017 | Trailer Page 14]

You know what, scratch that, just include the entirety of Tokyo DisneySea.

 

the upcoming Kong attraction at Islands of Adventure and Mystic Manor at Hong Kong Disneyland should probably be included as well 

[Official Weekend Estimates: Goosebumps - 23.5M; The Martian - 21.5M; Bridge of Spies - 15.4M; Crimson Peak - 12.9M (Page 1)]

what's #1 next weekend? seems a lackluster line-up.

Steve Jobs easily. Should be able to at least do $21-23 million next weekend. Goosebumps and Martian will probably be 2nd and 3rd, too. 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

Might as well also go for it:

Bridge of Spies: $25.5M

Goosebumps: $32.3M

Crimson Peak: $14.6M

The Last Witch Hunter: $12.4M

Paranormal: $23.4M

Jem: $7.6M

Scouts: $5.6M

Our Brand: $7.1M

Spectre: $102.5M

Peanuts: $61.1M

The 33: $14.7M

Love the Coopers: $11.1M

By the Sea: $8.3M

MockingJay: $162M

The Night Before: $17.8M

The Good Dinosaur: $62/89M

Creed: $22/34M

Victor Frankenstein: $13/20M

Krampus: $20M

Heart of the Sea: $29M

Star Wars: $215M

Sisters: $19.2M

Alvin: $16/25M

Concussion: $14M

Joy: $19M

Point Break: $9.8M

Daddy's Home: $12.5M

The Revenant: $30M

Hateful Eight: $26.7M

The Forest: $8M

13 Hours: $39.6M

Ride Along: $31M

5th Wave: $20.8M

Norm: $14.6M

Nut Job: $8.8M

Risen: $17.6M

Dirty Grandpa: $23.2M

The Boy: $5.5M

The Finest Hours: $27.3M

KFP3: $57.9M

10/23

1. Steve Jobs: $30.5 million 
2. Last Witch Hunter: $11 million
3. Paranormal Activity - The Ghost Dimension: $10 million 
4. Rock the Kasbah: $6.5 million 
5. Jem and the Holograms: $5.5 million 

10/30

1. Our Brand is Crisis: $8 million 
2. Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse: $5 million 

11/6

1. Spectre: $97 million 
2. The Peanuts Movie: $58 million 
3. The Outskirts: $5 million 

11/13

1. The 33: $14.5 million 
2. By the Sea: $10.5 million 
3. Love the Coopers: $8 million 
4. My All American: $3.5 million 

11/20

1. Mockingjay Part 2: $164 million 
2. The Night Before: $22 million 
3. The Secret in Their Eyes: $4 million 

11/27

1. The Good Dinosaur: $76 million/$110 million 
2. Creed: $31 million/$48 million 
3. Victor Frankenstein: $10 million/$15 million 

12/4

1. Krampus: $20.5 million 

12/11

1. In the Heart of the Sea: $23 million 
2. Legend: $7 million

12/18

1. Star Wars Episode VII: $152.5 million 
2. Sisters: $24 million 
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks - The Road Chip: $18 million 

12/25

1. Joy: $27 million 
2. Daddy's Home: $20.5 million
3. Concussion: $17 million 
4. The Big Short: $8 million/$14 million 
5. Point Break: $7.5 million 

1/8

1. The Hateful Eight: $27.5 million 
2. The Revenant: $23 million
3. Blumhouse Horror: $12 million 
4. The Forest: $5 million 

1/15

1. 13 Hours: $39.5 million/$51 million 
2. Ride Along 2: $30.5 million/$38 million 
3. The 5th Wave: $21 million/$26 million 
4. Norm of the North: $8 million/$10 million 
5. The Nut Job 2: $6 million/$7.5 million 

1/22

1. Risen: $22 million
2. Dirty Grandpa: $13 million 
3. The Boy: $7 million

1/29

1. Kung Fu Panda 3: $43 million 
2. The Finest Hours: $16 million 
3. Lights Out: $11 million 

[Official Weekend Estimates: Goosebumps - 23.5M; The Martian - 21.5M; Bridge of Spies - 15.4M; Crimson Peak - 12.9M (Page 1)]

That's not all that great of a drop for The Martian given its still relatively competition deprived. If it's already dropping 40%, the holds will not be good come November and Spectre. 

This weekend has the most competition for October.

 

23rd: the openers should combine to $40-45 million (most of which is Steve Jobs) 

30th: $10-15 million between the openers 

 

Martian is still heading for $175 million+ DOM, which is a excellent finish for it. 

[Official Weekend Estimates: Goosebumps - 23.5M; The Martian - 21.5M; Bridge of Spies - 15.4M; Crimson Peak - 12.9M (Page 1)]

At least wait for Friday #s before determining Goosebumps' fate!

Pan is a $150m fantasy tentpole dumped on a random October weekend, while Goosebumps is a $58m horror comedy released two weeks before Halloween. Goosebumps doesn't need a big OW as much as Pan did, since the budget is much smaller and it'll hold great over its second and third weekends

Goosebumps also has positive reception and minimal comedic competition.

It could still do $9-11 million on Friday even with $600k previews

Bridge should be leggy so a $20-25 million OW would be excellent for it.

[Official Weekend Estimates: Goosebumps - 23.5M; The Martian - 21.5M; Bridge of Spies - 15.4M; Crimson Peak - 12.9M (Page 1)]

Lol at everyone thinking Bridge of Spies and Goosebumps are locks for sub-$20 million

Goosebumps could easily do $25-30 million for the weekend since kids movies rarely do well in previews

Bridge could do $20-25 million since older adults aren't usually ones to attend previews.

Crimson is looking rough though

[The Good Dinosaur | Peter Sohn | BR/DVD release 2-23-2016 | Pixar's first BO flop]

If this actually manages to be bigger than IO, I'm calling TDK numbers for Dory.

Not exactly the toughest call unless Good Dinosaur does more than TS3, I don't see it significantly increasing Dory's BO potential. Finding Dory already has a very small amount of $500 million+ potential if it becomes an acclaimed zeitgeist hit

[The Peanuts Movie | November 6, 2015]

With Goosebumps targeting older kids/nostalgic young adults, Pan flopping and HT2 being over a month into its run, I wouldn't be super surprised by a $50 million+ OW for Peanuts

The weekend before looks pretty empty, so Spectre and Peanuts have plenty of room for a potential $125 million+ between the two.

Plus Peanuts Movie has had a solid marketing campaign. Looking forward to Nov 6-8 to see how the two openers (with a third nonfactor) do.

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

Oct 16-18
1. Goosebumps: $38 million
2. Bridge of Spies: $27.5 million
3. The Martian: $24.5 million ($147 million)
4. Crimson Peak: $19.5 million
5. Hotel Transylvania 2: $13 million ($135 million)
6. Pan: $8 million ($30 million)
7. The Intern: $7 million ($61 million)
8. Sicario: $5 million ($34 million)
9. Maze Runner 2: $3.5 million ($75 million)
10. Steve Jobs: $2 million ($3 million)

10/23-10/25
1. Steve Jobs - $30.5 million ($34 million)
2. Goosebumps - $27 million ($74 million)
3. Paranormal Activity - The Ghost Dimension: $23 million
4. Bridge of Spies - $17 million ($53 million)
5. The Martian - $16 million ($171 million)
6. Hotel Transylvania 2 - $10.5 million ($148 million)
7. Last Witch Hunter - $8 million
8. Crimson Peak - $7 million ($30 million)
9. Jen and the Holograms - $6 million
10. The Intern - $5.5 million ($69 million)

 

10/30-11/1

1. Steve Jobs: $22.5 million ($68 million)
2. Goosebumps: $21 million ($101 million)
3. Scouts Guide: $17 million 
4. The Martian: $12 million ($189 million) 
5. Bridge of Spies: $11.5 million ($70 million) 
6. Hotel Transylvania 2: $9.5 million ($160 million) 
7. Paranormal Activity - The Ghost Dimension: $9 million ($39 million) 
8. Our Brand is Crisis" $7 million 
9. Crimson Peak: $4 million ($37 million) 
10. The Intern: $3.5 million ($74 million)

[Weekend Estimates (pg31): The Martian 37 | HT2 20.3 | Pan 15.5 | Intern 8.66 | Sicario 7.35 | The Walk 3.65 | Steve Jobs 521k]

Pan should do low to high 20s - not awful considering it's been dumped into Fall 2015 lol and HT2/Goosebumps look to be more compelling family fare

[Monday 5 Oct # Martian 4.4|Transyl2 1.39|Sicario 1.05|Intern 941k|BlackMass 500k|Maze2 475k|Ever.422k|WarR 270k|Visit 230k|PG 180k]

Fox did incredible last year with X-Men Days of Future Past, Apes 2, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Rio 2, Penguins & Gone Girl, totaling $5.4B WW

This year they stumbled with Fantastic 4 & Maze Runner 2. Martian will be their highest grossing title but people will still complain the movie does not

do as well as Gravity or the overrated Interstellar. This is not Fox's year.

Lol it still has a solid shot at doing better than Interstellar domestically

Martian has minimal competition until Spectre. Crimson Peak and The Walk are minor since neither is a straight sci-fi tent pole.

It could leg its way to $215-220 million. But anything over $150 million+ I'd excellent considering the budget and inevitable $200 million+ OS gross