[Weekend Actuals (Page 93): TFA 42.35M | The Revenant 39.83M | Daddy's Home 15.02M | The Forest 12.74M | Sisters 7.19M]

$42 million for a 4th weekend is still amazing. A 50-55% drop should have been expected.

 

$39-40 million for The Revenant is excellent - should get a 3.5x-4x if it gets enough Oscar nods.

 

Both should be above $30 million next weekend... Ride Along 2 also. Then 13 Hours possibly going above $20 million. Big MLK weekend ahead 

[8M TFA Rth Monday number!!! SW7 has surpassed TA1 & F7 for 4th alltime WW!!!]

8

9.2

7.4

7.1 (774)

 

15.2

22.8

14 (826) - 52 4th weekend

 

5

6.5

4.5

4.2 (846)

 

10

16

11

8 (891) - 37/45 5th weekend 

 

Might be pretty bullish, but 950m-1 b looks to be its DOM finish 

[2016 100M Films - 30 down, 6 to go! (Passengers Played The Long Game)]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

It won't be weak

 

BVS (March), KFP3 (January), Allegiant (March), Zootopia (March) and Ride Along 2 (January) all should pass 100M easily. That's five films. Last year we had six and the biggest grosser was Cinderella. BVS will be significantly bigger than that.

 

Then we have some potential breakout films:

13 hours

Deadpool

How to be single

Gods of Egypt

Hail, Caesar

London has fallen

 

Of those, I can see Deadpool and/or How to be single grossing 100M thanks to a February without strong tentpoles.

In the 1st quarter, I think the top 10 will be 

1. Batman vs. Superman
2. Zootopia
3. Kung Fu Panda 3
4. Deadpool
5. 13 Hours
6. Ride Along 2
7. Allegiant 
8. Miracles From Heaven
9. Zoolander 2
10. Hail, Caesar!/The Finest Hours 

6-8 of those should do $100 million DOM, if a couple break out. And like others mentioned above, BvS will be significantly above Cinderella DOM, so all 1st Qtr 2016 needs is for everything else to perform solidly... KFP3 and/or Zootopia doing $200 million+ DOM would also be beneficial. 

[Box Office Theory 2015 Oscar nomination Game!-Congrats TST!]

Picture:

1. Spotlight
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Big Short
5. Star Wars Episode VII
6. Carol
7. Room
8. Inside Out 
9. The Revenant 

Alt: Creed 

 

Director: 

1. Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
2. George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Ridley Scott - The Martian
4. Alejandro Gonzalez-Inarritu - The Revenant 
5. Todd Haynes - Carol

Alt: Adam McKay - The Big Short

 

Actor:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant 
2. Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs 
3. Michael B. Jordan - Creed 
4. Matt Damon - The Martian 
5. Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl 

Alt: Bryan Cranston - Trumbo 

 

Actress: 

1. Brie Larson - Room
2. Saorise Roman - Brooklyn  
3. Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
4. Lily Tomlin - Grandma
5. Cate Blanchett - Carol 

Alt:  Charlize Theron - Mad Max: Fury Road

 

Supporting Actor:

1. Sylvester Stallone - Creed
2. Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
3. Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
4. Michael Keaton - Spotlight 
5. Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation 

Alt: Walter Goggins - The Hateful Eight 

 

Supporting Actress: 

1. Rooney Mara - Carol
2. Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight 
3. Alicia Vikandier - The Danish Girl 
4. Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs
5. Rachel McAdams - Spotlight 

Alt: Helen Mirren - Trumbo 

 

Original Screenplay

1. Inside Out
2. Spotlight 
3. Trainwreck
4. Bridge of Spies 
5. The Hateful Eight

Alt: Straight Outta Compton 

 

Adapted Screenplay

1. Steve Jobs
2. The Martian
3. Room
4. Carol
5. The Big Short

Alt: Anomalisa 

 

Animated Feature

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. Shaun the Sheep Movie
4. The Peanuts Movie 
5. The Good Dinosaur 

Alt: The Prophet 

 

Cinematography 

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Sicario 
3. The Hateful Eight 
4. Star Wars: Episode VII
5. The Revenant 

Alt: Carol 

 

Production Design 

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: Episode VII
3. Cinderella
4. Carol 
5. Bridge of Spies

Alt: The Danish Girl 

 

Costumes

1. Carol
2. Star Wars Episode VII
3. Cinderella
4. Crimson Peak
5. Brooklyn

Alt: Mad Max: Fury Road

 

Makeup

1. The Danish Girl
2. Cinderella
3. Star Wars Episode VII 

Alt: Mad Max: Fury Road

 

Film Editing

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant 
3. The Big Short
4. The Martian
5. Spotlight

Alt: Bridge of Spies 

 

Sound Mixing

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars Episode VII
3. Inside Out 
4. The Revenant
5. The Martian 

Alt: Bridge of Spies

 

Sound Editing

1. Star Wars Episode VII
2. Mad Max: Fury Road 
3. Inside Out
4. The Revenant
5. The Martian

Alt: Bridge of Spies

 

Visual Effects

1. Star Wars Episode VII
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Jurassic World 
4. The Walk 
5. The Martian 

Alt: Avengers 2

 

Score

1. Star Wars Episode VII
2. Inside Out
3. The Hateful Eight
4. Bridge of Spies 
5. Carol 

Alt: The Danish Girl

 

Song

1. Furious 7
2. Creed
3. Youth
4. The Hunting Ground
5. Spectre 

Alt: 50 Shades of Grey 

 

 

[2016 100M Films - 30 down, 6 to go! (Passengers Played The Long Game)]

2016

 

1. Finding Dory: $580 million

2. Rogue One: $515 million

3. Captain America - Civil War: $470 million

4. Batman vs. Superman: $435 million

5. Moana: $335 million

6. The Secret Lives of Pets: $310 million

7. Suicide Squad: $290 million

8. The Jungle Book: $275 million

9. X-Men - Apocalypse: $255 million

10. Zootopia: $240 million 

11. Ghostbusters: $230 million

12. Star Trek Beyond: $220 million

13. Fantastic Beasts: $210 million 

14. Sing: $200 million

15. Bourne 5: $195 million

16. Kung Fu Panda 3: $190 million

17. Doctor Strange: $185 million 

18. Independence Day 2: $175 million 

19. Deadpool: $165 million 

20. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $160 million

21. Central Intelligence: $155 million 

22. Storks: $150 million

23. The Magnificent Seven: $145 million

23. TMNT 2: $135 million 

24. 13 Hours: $130 million 

25. The Girl on the Train: $125 million

26. Gambit: $120 million

27. Ice Age 5: $120 million 

28.  Passengers: $120 million

29. Neighbors 2: $115 million 

30.  Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $115 million 

31. Angry Birds: $110 million

32. Zoolander 2: $110 million 

33. The Founder: $110 million

34. Sully: $105 million 

35. Pete's Dragon: $105 million 

35. The Conjuring 2: $105 million 

36. Miracles From Heaven: $100 million 

37. Allegiant: $100 million 

 

 

 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

1/8-1/10

1. Star Wars Episode VII - The Force Awakens: $45 million ($813 million)
2. The Revenant: $33 million ($35 million)
3. Daddy's Home: $16 million ($117 million)
4. The Hateful Eight: $10 million ($45 million)
5. The Forest: $8 million
6. Sisters: $7.5 million ($74 million)
7. Alvin and the Chipmunks - The Road Chip: $6 million ($75 million)
8. The Big Short: $5.5 million ($41 million)
9. Joy: $4.5 million ($45 million)
10. Concussion: $3.5 million ($31 million)

1/15-1/18

1. 13 Hours: $46 million/$57 million
2. Ride Along 2: $37 million/$45 million
3. Star Wars Episode VII: $33 million/$42 million ($871 million)
4. The Revenant: $23.5 million/$29 million ($76 million)
5. Daddy's Home: $9 million/$11.5 million ($131 million)
6. The Hateful Eight: $7 million/$8 million ($57 million)
7. Norm of the North: $6 million/$7.5 million
8. The Big Short: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($49 million)
9. Alvin and the Chipmunks - The Road Chip: $4 million/$5.5 million ($82 million)
10. Sisters: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($80 million)

1/22-1/24

1. 13 Hours: $22 million ($90 million)
2. Star Wars Episode VII: $17.5 million ($895 million)
3. Ride Along 2: $17 million ($70 million)
4. The Revenant: $13.5 million ($95 million)
5. The 5th Wave: $7 million
6. Dirty Grandpa: $6 million
7. The Boy: $4.5 million
8. Daddy's Home: $4 million ($137 million)
9. The Hateful Eight: $3.5 million ($62 million)
10. Norm of the North: $3 million ($11 million)

1/29-1/31

1. Kung Fu Panda 3: $62 million
2. The Finest Hours: $25 million
3. Star Wars Episode VII: $13 million ($914 million)
4. 13 Hours: $12 million ($108 million)
5. The Revenant: $10 million ($110 million)
6. Ride Along 2: $9 million ($83 million)
7. Fifty Shades of Black: $6 million
8. The 5th Wave: $3.5 million ($12 million)
9. Jane Got a Gun: $3 million
10. The Hateful Eight: $2.5 million ($66 million)

2/5-2/7

1. Kung Fu Panda 3: $33 million ($105 million)
2. Hail, Caesar!: $23 million
3. The Finest Hours: $13 million ($45 million)
4. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $11 million
5. Star Wars Episode VII: $7 million ($925 million)
6. The Choice: $6.5 million
7. The Revenant: $5.5 million ($118 million)
8. 13 Hours: $5 million ($116 million)
9. Ride Along 2: $4 million ($89 million)
10. Fifty Shades of Black: $3 million ($11 million)

2/12-2/15

1. Deadpool: $63.5 million/$82 million
2. Zoolander 2: $33 million/$43 million
3. Kung Fu Panda 3: $25 million/$32 million ($144 million)
4. How to Be Single: $18 million/$22.5 million
5. Hail, Caesar!: $15 million/$18 million ($48 million)
6. The Finest Hours: $9 million/$10.5 million ($60 million)
7. Star Wars Episode VII: $7.5 million/$9 million ($938 million)
8. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $6.5 million/$7.5 million ($22 million)
9. The Choice: $6 million/$7 million ($17 million)
10. The Revenant: $4.5 million/$5.25 million ($126 million)

[Best films of 2015]

As

1. Inside Out
2. Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
3. Cinderella
4. The Martian
5. The Peanuts Movie
6. Mission Impossible - Rogue Nation
7. Paddington
8. Jurassic World
9. The Intern

Bs

1. Ant-Man
2. Avengers: Age of Ultron
3. War Room
4. McFarland, USA
5. Minions
6. Max
7. SpongeBob 2
8. The Good Dinosaur
9. Hotel Transylvania 2
10. Tomorrowland
11. American Sniper

Cs

1. Pixels
2. San Andreas
3. A Walk in the Woods
4. Vacation
5. Get Hard
6. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Ds

1. The Wedding Ringer
2. Furious 7
3. Unfriended
4. Mortdecai

Fs

1. Hot Tub Time Machine 2

2015 Films Left to See

1. The Hunting Ground
2. It Follows
3. Home
4. While We're Young
5. Ex Machina
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Spy
8. Dope
9. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
10. Mr. Holmes
11. Paper Towns
12. A LEGO Brickumentary
13. Shaun the Sheep Movie
14. The Gift
15. Straight Outta Compton
16. The Visit
17. Black Mass
18. Captive
19. Everest
20. Sicario
21. 99 Homes
22. The Walk
23. Steve Jobs
24. Bridge of Spies
25. Goosebumps
26. Brooklyn
27. Spotlight
28. Mockingjay Part 2
29. Creed
30. The Lady in the Van
31. Youth
32. The Big Short
33. Sisters
34. Joy
35. Daddy's Home
36. Anomalisa
37. Beasts of No Nation
38. The Revenant

[Monday SW:TFA Estimate - 31.4M (-27%)]

35

33.5

24 

45 

47

32.5

 

$791 million DOM by Jan 3... puts it in on pace for $950 million+ DOM

[Wednesday Star Wars TFA ACTUALS - 38,022,183]

$180.5 million ($569 million)

$120 million ($834 million)

$65 million ($944 million)

$50 million/$64 million ($1.034 billion)

$28 million ($1.074 billion)

$20 million ($1.104 billion)

$11 million ($1.120 billion)

$10 million/$12 million ($1.137 billion)

$6 million ($1.145 billion)

$4 million ($1.150 billion)

 

130m+ tickets in its initial release... whoa

 

 

 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

12/25-12/27

1. Star Wars Episode VII: $184 million ($573 million)

2. Daddy's Home: $20 million

3. The Big Short: $18 million

4. Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $17 million ($46 million)

5. Sisters: $14 million ($39 million)

6. Joy: $8 million

7. MJ2: $6 million ($265 million)

8. Creed: $5.5 million ($97 million)

9. Concussion: $5 million

10. The Good Dinosaur: $5 million ($106 million)

 

[Wednesday Star Wars TFA ACTUALS - 38,022,183]

$30 million

$62 million 

$74 million

$59 million

 

$195 million 2nd weekend... an increase from its OW minus previews... $594 million in 10 days

 

$42 million

$43 million

$37 million

$25 million

$51 million

$47.5 million

$32.5 million 

 

$741 million by NYE... $872 million by Jan 3/17 days 

 

This is crazy 

[Star Wars Tuesday - 37.3M (Tele/baumer bet for Wednesday drop is on page 24...much to learn one of them still has)]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Wednesday - $32M

Thursday - $30M

 

Second Weekend - $140M possible?

(I have no clue I'm just spitballing here)

I dont see how it misses it with a $30 million Thurs

 

$58 million

$66 million

$52 million 

 

176m 2nd weekend 

[Star Wars Tuesday - 37.3M (Tele/baumer bet for Wednesday drop is on page 24...much to learn one of them still has)]

1 hour ago, eddyxx said:

 

Dude wut

Yeah its unlikely

 

$36 million 

$25 million ($376 million)

 

$53.5 million

$61.5 million

$50 million ($541 million)

 

$37 million

$38.5 million

$35.5 million

$25 million ($677 million)

 

$44 million

$45 million

$30 million ($806 million)

 

Pretty bullish, but I think SW7 will be at $750-800m by Jan 3... $650-700 million feels like a certainty. 

[BOT User Tracking 12/25-27 Big Short (wide), Concussion, Daddy's Home, Joy, Point Break,]

Daddy's Home: $28 million

The Big Short: $17 million

Joy: $12 million

Concussion: $10 million

Point Break: $6 million 

[STAR WARS TFA MONDAY ACTUAL - 40.1M, THE FORCE IS STRONGER THAN AVATAR! (pg48)]

54 minutes ago, stripe said:

40M is beyond epic

 

Tuesday could stay flat or see a slight decrease. Wednesday kids are out of school. Can't see a drop over 10%.

 

Maybe... 

 

40M

38M

35M

25M - 138M

 

45M

47M

38M - 130M

 

248 + 268 = 516M 10days

 

41M

42M

38M

30M - 151M (398M) 

63M

65M

52M - 180M (578M) 

41M

38M

34M

26M - 139M (727M) 

51M

46M

33M - 130M (857M) 

 

850M+ by Jan 3

 

 

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

SW: TFA needs to make 765 M plus before 2016 starts to beat Universal for the yearly crown. It should have been easy had TGD not disappointed.

Would be amazing if it happened. $900 million+ after 17 days... just crazy...

[TFA will drop over 50% next weekend]

Out.

 

Christmas Day and zero new films worth going to see other than SW7 should keep it sub-50% 

[Star Wars The Force Awakens: Opening Weekend | Actuals In 1st Post | $247,966,675 | The Force Awoke... and it's not sleeping anytime soon | 119, 68, 60]

5 minutes ago, CJ Ren said:

You are saying New Years Eve will make more money than New Years Day?

Remove the $24.5 million 

 

Still, $800 million+ by Jan 3 is looking good 

[Star Wars The Force Awakens: Opening Weekend | Actuals In 1st Post | $247,966,675 | The Force Awoke... and it's not sleeping anytime soon | 119, 68, 60]

$40 million ($290 million) 

$36.5 million ($326.5 million) 

$32 million ($358.5 million) 

$27 million ($385.5 million)

$62 million ($447.5 million) 

$67 million ($514.5 million) 

$52 million ($566.5 million)

$36.5 million ($603 million)

$34 million ($637 million)

$31 million ($668 million)

$29.5 million ($697.5 million)

$24,5 million ($722 million) 

$53 million ($775 million) 

$45 million ($820 million) 

$30 million ($850 million)

 

$850 million by January 3rd is the dream 

 

 

[2015 Best Picture predictions!]

On 12/18/2015, 6:44:47, Halba said:

star wars out of contention for a nom. its too fantasy oriented not typical oscar fare.

Lol if it grosses $750 million+ DOM, it's locked for a BP nomination. The #1 film of all time at DOM box office won't get denied a nod with 90%+ on RT. 

 

 

[Star Wars The Force Awakens: Opening Weekend | Actuals In 1st Post | $247,966,675 | The Force Awoke... and it's not sleeping anytime soon | 119, 68, 60]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

125

68 (stays flat)

51 -24%

244 Weekend

100 million 4 weekdays

114 -53%

 

458 million in 7 days?

 

Ultron done in  a week? 

 

My predictions are not optimistic? 

Actually a little conservative with how big the 2nd weekend drop is. Weekdays are also kinda soft, considering at least two will be at around $30 million. 

 

 

 

 

[Star Wars The Force Awakens: Opening Weekend | Actuals In 1st Post | $247,966,675 | The Force Awoke... and it's not sleeping anytime soon | 119, 68, 60]

1 hour ago, Dark 33Legend of the Sith said:

I think this can hit $600 million before the new year.

With a $230 million+ OW, I don't see how it misses it.

 

$250-260 million, it might even top JW by Dec 31

[Star Wars The Force Awakens: Opening Weekend | Actuals In 1st Post | $247,966,675 | The Force Awoke... and it's not sleeping anytime soon | 119, 68, 60]

3x is worst case for SW7. 

 

There's zero true competition for families/teens until Jan 29 - its 7th weekend. 

 

There's nothing major opening next week,  now that Joy has middling reviews and its Oscar chances are gone.

 

Christmas Day and New Years Day will keep its 2nd and 3rd weekends at sub-50%. And if it gets some Oscar buzz, it should hold decent enough in Jan/Feb.

 

If JW made it in June, SW7 won't miss it in the most back loaded BO period of the year. 

 

I'm thinking 3.75x-4x

 

 

[Star Wars The Force Awakens: Opening Weekend | Actuals In 1st Post | $247,966,675 | The Force Awoke... and it's not sleeping anytime soon | 119, 68, 60]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

100m??? It's on track for like a 14m weekend. Holiday legs aren't that good. 

$14 million

$19.5 million ($51 million)

$16 million ($87 million)

 

SW7 could have caused some major backloading for Sisters and Alvin 4 

 

[Star Wars The Force Awakens: Opening Weekend | Actuals In 1st Post | $247,966,675 | The Force Awoke... and it's not sleeping anytime soon | 119, 68, 60]

Just now, babz06 said:

Those are solid numbers for Sisters, Alvin is meh. 

Looks like Sisters has a shot at 100m if it holds well. 

It's pretty much locked to increase next week due to Christmas Day and massive backloading from SW7

 

$18 million OW could get it to $22-24 million next weekend. 

[Star Wars The Force Awakens: Opening Weekend | Actuals In 1st Post | $247,966,675 | The Force Awoke... and it's not sleeping anytime soon | 119, 68, 60]

$130 million

$75 million

$50 million

$31 million

$28.5 million

$26 million

$21 million

$52 million

$54 million 

$42 million

$28 million

$30.5 million

$27 million

$23 million

$41 million

$36 million

$24.5 million 

 

$704.5 million by January 3rd 

 

Possibly more if it holds better over the next couple weeks!