[Monday: Zootopia makes $3.72 million, Allegiant $2.02M, Heaven $1.35M, 10 Cloverfield $1.23M, Deadpool $0.87M]

$28 million would be an excellent hold for this... making nearly $30 million in the 4th weekend is solid especially since Spring Break weekdays have lowered upfront demand for Fri-Sun

[WEEKEND THREAD | B.O numbers Page 28: Final Divergent movie opens at $29m, Zoo: $38m]

6 hours ago, DamienRoc said:

 

Hmm. Top ten animated films each recent year.

 

2015:

1. Inside Out - 356.5
2. Minions - 336.0
3. Home - 177.4
4. Hotel Translyvania 2 - 169.7
5. Spongebob - 163.0
6. Peanuts - 130.1
7. The Good Dinosaur - 122.8
8. Shaun the Sheep - 19.4
9. Strange Magic - 12.4
10. Un Gallo con Muchos Huevos - 9.1

1496.5m top 10 total.

 

19 total films released. 

Two others had grosses above 1m: DBZ Resurrection F (8.0), and Anomalisa (3.4)

 

2014: 

1. The LEGO Movie - 257.8
2. Big Hero 6 - 222.5
3. How to Train Your Dragon 2 - 177.0
4. Rio 2 - 131.5
5. Mr. Peabody & Sherman - 111.5
6. Penguins of Madagascar - 83.4
7. The Nut Job - 64.3
8. Planes: Fire & Rescue - 59.2
9. The Box Trolls - 50.8
10. Book of Life - 50.2

1208.2m top 10 total.

33 total films released.

Three others had a gross above 1m: Legands of Oz (8.5), The Wind Rises (5.2), and DBZ: Battle of the Gods (2.6).

 

2013:

1. Frozen - 400.7
2. Despicable Me 2 - 368.1
3. Monsters University - 268.5
4. The Croods - 187.2
5. Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 - 119.8
6. Epic - 107.5
7. Places 90.3
8. Turbo - 83.0
9. Escape From Planet earth - 57.0
10. Free Birds - 55.8

1737.9 top 10 total.

19 total films released.

One other had a gross above 1m: From Up on Poppy Hill (1.0)

 

2012

1. Brave - 237.3
2. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - 216.4
3. The Lorax - 214.0
4. Wreck-It Ralph - 189.4
5. Ice Age: Continental Drift - 161.3
6. Hotel Transylvania - 148.3
7. Rise of the Guardians - 103.4
8. Paranorman - 56.0
9. Frankenweenie - 35.3
10. The Pirates! Band of Misfits - 31.1

1392.5m top 10 total.

22 total films released.

One other had a gross above 1m: The Secret World of Arrietty (19.2)

 

2011

1. Cars 2 -191.5
2. Kung Fu Panda 2 - 165.2
3. Puss in Boots - 149.3
4. Rio - 143.6
5. Rango - 122.5
6. Gnomeo and Juliet - 100.0
7. The Adventures of Tintin - 77.6
8. Happy Feet 2 - 64.0
9. Arthur Christmas - 46.5
10. Winnie the Pooh - 26.7

943.3m top 10 total.

16 total films released.

2 others above 1m: Mars Needs Moms (21.4), Hoodwinked Too! (10.1)

 

2010

1. Toy Story 3 - 415.0
2. Despicable Me - 251.5
3. Shrek Forever After - 238.7
4. How to Train Your Dragon - 217.6
5. Tangled - 200.8
6. Megamind - 148.4
7. Legend of the Guardians - 55.7
8. Alpha and Omega - 25.1
9. The Illusionist - 2.2
10. The Secret of Kells - 0.7

1555.7

15 total films released.

No others above 1m.

 

 

 

So 2013 is currently well in the lead for biggest animated years.

 

2016's top 10 is probably going to be something like this:

1. Finding Dory
2. Zootopia
3. Secret Life of Pets
4. Moana
5. Angry Birds
6. KFP 3
7. Ice Age Collision Course
8. Trolls
9. Storks
10. Kubo

Sing and Sausage Party could also be in the mix. It might challenge 2013 and 2014 for the number of 50m grossing films, and 2012 and 2015 for the number of 100m grossers. I don't think it'll challenge 2010 for the 200m record, though.

 

Sing is definitely going to be top 10 DOM... Illumination + Rogue One counterprogramming=$100 million+ DOM. Kubo will be lucky to get $50 million with Pete's Dragon the week before. All of the other Laika films minus Coraline did $50 million or so. Anything more than $60 million would surprise me. 

 

It'll definitekly finish ahead of Kubo and Trolls... I'd even say IA5 and Angry Birds. There's also a good chance it finishes above KFP3 if audiences really dig it, since Rogue One won't consume the Christmas BO the way Episode VII did. 

 

My guess for the top 10 would be 

1. Finding Dory - $450 million
2. Moana - $340 million 
3. Zootopia - $315 million 
4. The Secret Lives of Pets - $265 million 
5. Sing - $205 million 
6. Storks - $150 million 
7. Kung Fu Panda 3 - $140 million 
8. Angry Birds - $115 million 
9. Ice Age 5 - $110 million 
10. Sausage Party - $85 million 

[WEEKEND THREAD | B.O numbers Page 28: Final Divergent movie opens at $29m, Zoo: $38m]

Well, $250 million+ appears to be a near-lock for Zootopia, so long as it doesn't drop more than 60-65% next weekend. 

 

Allegiant bombed... not surprised. People are either making sure they see Zootopia or saving for BvS. 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

3/25-3/27

1. Batman vs. Superman: $167 million 
2. Zootopia: $23 million ($246 million) 
3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $15 million 
4. Miracles From Heaven: $10 million ($34 million) 
5. Allegiant: $9 million ($48 million)
6. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $5 million ($55 million)
7. London Has Fallen: $2.5 million ($53 million) 
8. Deadpool: $2.5 million ($343 million)
9. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $1.5 million ($21 million) 
10. The Perfect Match: $1 million ($9 million)

4/1-4/3

1. Batman vs. Superman: $69 million ($280 million) 
2. Zootopia: $17.5 million ($269 million) 
3. God's Not Dead 2: $16 million 
4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $11 million ($32 million) 
5. Allegiant: $7 million ($59 million) 
6. Miracles From Heaven: $6 million ($43 million) 
7. Collide: $4.5 million 
8. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $4 million ($61 million)
9. London Has Fallen: $1.5 million ($55 million) 
10. Deadpool: $1.5 million ($346 million) 

4/8-4/10

1. Batman vs. Superman: $37 million ($336 million) 
2. The Boss: $28 million 
3. Zootopia: $14 million ($286 million) 
4. God's Not Dead 2: $10 million ($30 million)
5. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $7.5 million ($43 million) 
6. Before I Wake: $6 million 
7. Allegiant: $5.5 million ($67 million) 
8. Hardcore Henry: $5 million
9. Everybody Wants Some: $4 million ($5 million) 
10. Miracles From Heaven: $3.5 million ($48 million) 

4/15-4/17

1. The Jungle Book: $97.5 million 
2. Barbershop - The Final Cut: $23 million 
3. Batman vs. Superman: $17 million ($361 million) 
4. The Boss: $15.5 million ($51 million) 
5. Zootopia: $7.5 million ($295 million) 
6. Criminal: $6 million 
7. God's Not Dead 2: $5.5 million ($37 million) 
8. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $5 million ($51 million) 
9. Allegiant: $3.5 million ($72 million) 
10. Before I Wake: $2.5 mililon ($9 million) 

4/22-4/24

1. The Jungle Book: $65 million ($185 million) 
2. The Huntsman Winter's War: $34 million 
3. Barbershop - The Final Cut: $10 million ($38 million) 
4. The Boss: $9 million ($64 million) 
5. Batman vs. Superman: $8 million ($373 million) 
6. Zootopia: $5.5 million ($302 million) 
7. Elvis and Nixon: $4.5 million 
8. God's Not Dead 2: $4 million ($42 million) 
9. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $3.5 million ($56 million) 
10. Criminal: $3 million ($10 million)

4/29-5/1

1. The Jungle Book: $43 million ($242 million) 
2. The Huntsman Winter's War: $18 mlilion ($61 million) 
3. Keanu: $16 million 
4. Mother's Day: $13 million 
5. Ratchet and Clank: $8 million 
6. Batman vs. Superman: $5 million ($381 million) 
7. The Boss: $4.5 million ($71 million) 
8. Zootopia: $3 million ($306 million) 
9. Elvis and Nixon: $2.5 million ($8 million)
10. God's Not Dead 2: $2 million ($45 million)

 

[Box Office 3:16: Zootopia 4.6, Heaven 1.9, 10CL 1.8, DP 1.2]

1 minute ago, BK007 said:

Uh...is that not a bad number for Miracles from Heaven?

It's not the kind of film that does huge on a weekday.

 

Plus it has a $35 million budget, so it'll at least make a small profit

[Tuesday Numbers: 6.10 M ZOOTOPIA | 2.57 M 10 CLOVERFIELD LANE | 1.41 M DEADPOOL]

42 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

Even with a bigger weekend than IO it's still going to be tough going to get to the 4x point (300m) but I understand your concern - I would much rather it peter out at like 270 than get to 295 lol

Its already $41 million ahead of BH6 at the same point - which puts it on pace for $264 million DOM, currently.

 

Since its 3rd weekend should be much stronger than BH6, the lead should just continue growing until mid-April. 

[Weekend Thread: Grimsby Bros leads the way with massive 3.1M, 10CL has decent 25.2M, Zootopia crumbles to $50M ;) P.31]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

How is Zootopia edgy?

It's very bold to make an original $150 million animated caper with political/societal commentary, adult-skewing humor (almost all of the jokes rely on sarcasm, irony, puns or slow build-ups) and minimal kid appeal (most of the laughter at my screening came from teens/adults). 

 

BH6, WiR, Frozen and Tangled all had hefty doses of kid-friendly comic relief and easy-to-understand plots. Zootopia doesn't really pander to little kids. 

 

Zootopia aims for an older demographic, which can be risky with animation, depending on marketing and WOM (HTTYD2 for example). 

[Best Picture predictions-2016!]

• Silence
• Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
• Birth of a Nation
• The Girl on the Train
• La La Land
• Passengers
• Story of Your Life
• The Promise
• Sully
• The Founder

My guess at the top 10 (in no particular order)... could obviously change over the next 8-9 months 

[Weekend Thread: Grimsby Bros leads the way with massive 3.1M, 10CL has decent 25.2M, Zootopia crumbles to $50M ;) P.31]

4 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

Wouldn't it be awesome if Zoo were still #1 next week?

Sent from my Z667T using Tapatalk

Zootopia: $38.5 million ($210 million)

Allegiant: $37 million

Miracles From Heaven: $21 million ($27 million)

10 Cloverfield Lane: $14 million ($50 million)

Deadpool: $8 million ($341 million)

 

I'm expecting it. Unlike CF, Insurgent wasn't well-liked. The drop-off for Allegiant will be very noticeable. 

 

Maze Runner 2 #s wouldn't be very surprising

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

3/18-3/20

1. Zootopia: $38.5 million ($210 million) 
2. Allegiant: $37 million 
3. Miracles From Heaven: $24 million ($32 million) 
4. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $14 million ($50 million) 
5. Deadpool: $8 million ($341 million)
6. London Has Fallen: $7 million ($50 million)
7. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $3 million ($19 million)
8. The Perfect Match: $2.5 million ($7 million) 
9. The Young Messiah: $2 million ($7 million)
10. The Brothers Grimsby: $1.5 million ($6 million) 

3/25-3/27

1. Batman vs. Superman: $162 million 
2. Zootopia: $23 million ($253 million)
3. Miracles From Heaven: $18 million ($64 million)
4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $14.5 million 
5. Allegiant: $11 million ($58 million) 
6. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $6 million ($61 million) 
7. London Has Fallen: $3 million ($55 million)
8. Deadpool: $2 million ($345 million)
9. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $1.5 million ($22 million) 
10. The Perfect Match: $1 million ($8 million)

4/1-4/3

1. Batman vs. Superman: $67 million ($283 million)
2. Zootopia: $17 million ($281 million)
3. God's Not Dead 2: $14 million 
4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $10.5 million ($33 million) 
5. Miracles From Heaven: $10 million ($81 million) 
6. Allegiant: $8 million ($72 million)
7. Collide: $4.5 million 
8. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $4 million ($68 million) 
9. Everybody Wants Some: $3.5 million 
10. London Has Fallen: $2 million ($58 million) 

4/8-4/10

1. Batman vs. Superman: $35.5 million ($339 million)
2. The Boss: $28 million 
3. Zootopia: $13.5 million ($299 million)
4. God's Not Dead 2: $10 million ($29 million) 
5. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $7 million ($44 million)
6. Miracles From Heaven: $6.5 million ($90 million)
7. Allegiant: $6 million ($81 million)
8. Before I Wake: $4.5 million 
9. Hardcore Henry: $3.5 million 
10. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $3 million ($72 million)

4/15-4/17

1. The Jungle Book: $96 million 
2. Barbershop - The Next Cut: $23 million 
3. Batman vs. Superman: $17 million ($365 million) 
4. The Boss: $16 million ($52 million) 
5. Zootopia: $7 million ($308 million) 
6. God's Not Dead 2: $6.5 million ($38 million) 
7. Criminal: $6 million 
8. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $4.5 million ($51 million) 
9. Miracles From Heaven: $4 million ($95 million) 
10. Allegiant: $3.5 million ($86 million) 

4/22-4/24

1. The Jungle Book: $63 million ($181 million)
2. The Huntsman Winter's War: $30.5 million 
3. The Boss: $10.5 million ($68 million) 
4. Barbershop - The Next Cut: $10 million ($38 million) 
5. Batman vs. Superman: $8 million ($377 million) 
6. Zootopia: $5 million ($314 million)
7. God's Not Dead 2: $4.5 million ($44 million)
8. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $3.5 million ($56 million) 
9. Miracles From Heaven: $3 million ($99 million) 
10. Criminal: $2.5 million ($10 million) 

4/29-5/1

1. The Jungle Book: $40.5 million ($235 million)
2. Keanu: $18 million 
3. The Huntsman Winter's War: $15 million ($54 million) 
4. Mother's Day: $10 million 
5. Ratchet and Clank: $7.5 million 
6. Batman vs. Superman: $5 million ($384 million) 
7. Same Kind of Different As Me: $4.5 million 
8. Barbershop - The Next Cut: $4 million ($44 million) 
9. Zootopia: $3.5 million ($318 million)
10. God's Not Dead 2: $3 million ($48 million)

5/6-5/8

1. Captain America - Civil War: $168 million 
2. The Jungle Book: $18 million ($259 million)
3. Mother's Day: $9 million ($23 million) 
4. The Huntsman Winter's War: $5 million ($62 million) 
5. Ratchet and Clank: $4 million ($12 million)
6. Same Kind of Different as Me: $2.5 million ($8 million) 
7. Zootopia: $2 million ($320 million) 
8. God's Not Dead 2: $2 million ($50 million) 
9. Barbershop - The Next Cut: $1.75 million ($47 million) 

5/13-5/15

1. Captain America - Civil War: $71 million ($275 million) 
2. The Jungle Book: $14 million ($277 million)
3. Money Monster: $9 million 
4. Kidnap: $7 million 
5. Mother's Day: $5 million ($30 million) 
6. The Darkness: $4 million 
7. The Huntsman Winter's War: $3.5 million ($67 million)
8. Ratchet and Clank: $3 million ($16 million) 
9. Zootopia: $1.5 million ($322 million) 
10. Same Kind of Different As Me: $1.25 million ($10 million) 

 

[Weekend Thread: Grimsby Bros leads the way with massive 3.1M, 10CL has decent 25.2M, Zootopia crumbles to $50M ;) P.31]

5 hours ago, picores said:

 

Lego had 27% drop on second weekend. It missed the 4x multiplier overall, which is what Zoo requires. Not saying it wont happen, but is far from easy. Could happen that BvS hit it harder than we expect....dont know. I'll go conservative and say 275m DOM. But yeah, 300m would be awesome.

2

I think Zootopia will do it... unlike LEGO, Zootopia doesn't have any major competition for over a month. LEGO had Frozen/Nut Job the couple weeks before and Muppets/Peabody not too long after. 

 

Zootopia's direct competition is Jungle Book (as a Disney film, it'll be paired in double features until Civil War) and R&C (a low-budget, likely sub-$25 million DOM grosser). It's also been over a month since KFP3, too. 

 

If it does $50 million+ this weekend and drops sub-30% next weekend, I'd say it's on pace for $300 million+ DOM due to Spring Break-boosted weekdays until early April. 

 

3rd weekend drop will determine where it ends up. 

 

[Weekend Thread: Grimsby Bros leads the way with massive 3.1M, 10CL has decent 25.2M, Zootopia crumbles to $50M ;) P.31]

Would love to see Zootopia do:

$12.5 million

$24 million 

$17 million 

 

$53.5 million 2nd weekend, $145.8 million after 10 days. 

 

That would put the film on pace for $280-320 million DOM. 

 

[Best director predictions-2016]

Nate Parker (Birth of a Nation)

Ang Lee (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk) 

Denis Villeneuve (Story of Your Life) 

Morten Tydium (Passengers) 

Damien Chazelle (La La Land) 

 

 

[Weekend Estimates (Page 25): Zootopia 73.7M | London Has Fallen 21.71M | Deadpool 16.4M | WTF 7.6M]

12 minutes ago, cookie said:

 

Thing about Lego was that it had an extremely good second weekend hold because it was President Day and Valentine's fell on that Friday, which then allowed it to do $30m+ on it's third week.

 

Zootopia's drops would have to average about 30% to keep it above $35m.

LEGO didn't have a holiday weekend its 3rd week.

 

I can see Zootopia doing this... especially with no offerings for kids during the relatively continuous Spring Break period of March to early April.

 

$76 million

$54 million ($171 million) 

$36 million ($240 million)

 

 

[Weekend Estimates (Page 25): Zootopia 73.7M | London Has Fallen 21.71M | Deadpool 16.4M | WTF 7.6M]

$1.7 million 

$17.7 million ($19.4 million) 

$32.5 million ($51.9 million) 

$24 million ($75.9 million)

 

$75.9 million OW

 

With how little family competition there is until mid-April, it might even get a 4x and reach $320-340 million DOM. 

 

 

[2016: Year of Animation?]

1. Finding Dory: $475 million 
2. Moana: $335 million 
3. Zootopia: $320 million 
4. The Secret Lives of Pets: $270 million 
5. Sing: $185 million 
6. Storks: $150 million 
7. Kung Fu Panda 3: $145 million 
8. Ice Age 5: $110 million 
9. The Angry Birds Movie: $95 million 
10. Trolls: $85 million 
11. Sausage Party: $70 million 
12. Kubo and the Two Strings: $50 million 
13. Ratchet and Clank: $40 million 
14. The Little Prince: $15 million 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

3/11-3/13

1. Zootopia: $51 million ($165 million) 
2. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $32 million 
3. London Has Fallen: $11 million ($39 million) 
4. The Young Messiah: $11.5 million 
5. The Brothers Grimsby: $11 million 
6. Deadpool: $10.5 million ($330 million) 
7. The Other Side of the Door: $7 million 
8. The Perfect Match: $5 million 
9. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $3.5 million ($13 million)
10. The Revenant: $2.5 million ($180 million)

3/18-3/20

1. Allegiant: $42 million 
2. Zootopia: $36.5 million ($236 million)
3. Miracles From Heaven: $27 million ($36 million)
4. London Has Fallen: $8 million ($53 million) 
5. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $7.5 million ($47 million) 
6. Deadpool: $7.5 mililon ($343 million) 
7. The Young Messiah: $7 million ($24 million) 
8. The Brothers Grimsby: $6 mililon ($21 million)
9. The Other Side of the Door: $3 million ($12 million) 
10. The Perfect Match: $3 million ($10 million) 

3/25-3/27

1. Batman vs. Superman: $167 million 
2. Zootopia: $20.5 million ($277 million) 
3. Miracles From Heaven: $20 million ($72 million) 
4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $14 million 
5. Allegiant: $13 million ($68 million) 
6. The Young Messiah: $6 million ($35 million) 
7. London Has Fallen: $4 million ($66 million) 
8. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $3 million ($68 million) 
9. The Brothers Grimsby: $2.5 million ($25 million)
10. Deadpool: $2.5 million ($347 million) 

4/1-4/3

1. Batman vs. Superman: $68 million ($297 million)
2. Zootopia: $16 million ($304 million)
3. God's Not Dead 2: $14 million 
4. Miracles From Heaven: $11 million ($90 million) 
5. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $9.5 million ($30 million) 
6. Allegiant: $9 million ($83 million) 
7. Collide: $6 million
8. Amityville - The Awakening: $5 million 
9. The Young Messiah: $3.5 million ($41 million) 
10. London Has Fallen: $2 million ($69 million)

4/8-4/10

1. Batman vs. Superman: $36 million ($353 million) 
2. The Boss: $27 million 
3. Zootopia: $12.5 million ($322 million) 
4. God's Not Dead 2: $9 million ($28 million) 
5. Miracles From Heaven: $8 million ($102 million) 
6. Before I Wake: $7 million 
7. Allegant: $6.5 million ($93 million) 
8. Hardcore Henry: $6 million 
9. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $5.5 million ($39 million) 
10. Collide: $2.5 million 

4/15-4/17

1. The Jungle Book: $86.5 million 
2. Barbershop - The Final Cut: $24 million 
3. Batman vs. Superman: $17 million ($379 million) 
4. The Boss: $13 million ($46 million) 
5. Criminal: $7.5 million 
6. Zootopia: $6 million ($329 million) 
7. God's Not Dead 2: $5 million ($35 million)
8. Miracles From Heaven: $4.5 million ($108 million) 
9. Alliegant: $4 million ($99 million)
10. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $3.5 million ($44 million) 

4/22-4/24

1. The Jungle Book: $57 million ($165 million) 
2. The Huntsman Winter's War: $34 million 
3. Barbershop - The Final Cut: $11 million ($40 million) 
4. The Boss: $8.5 million ($59 million) 
5. Batman vs. Superman: $8 million ($391 million)
6. Zootopia: $4.5 million ($335 million) 
7. Criminal: $3.5 million ($13 million) 
8. Elvis and Nixon: $3.5 million 
9. God's Not Dead 2: $3 million ($39 million) 
10. Miracles From Heaven: $2.5 million ($111 million) 

4/29-5/1

1. The Jungle Book: $38 million ($216 million) 
2. Keanu: $20.5 million 
3. The Huntsman Winter's War: $16 million ($58 million) 
4. Mother's Day: $12.5 million 
5. Ratchet and Clank: $12 million 
6. Same Kind of Different As Me: $5.5 million 
7. Barbershop - The Final Cut: $5 million ($48 million) 
8. Batman vs. Superman: $4.5 million ($398 million) 
9. The Boss: $4 million ($65 million) 
10. Zootopia: $2 million ($337 million) 

5/6-5/8

1. Captain America - Civil War: $157 million 
2. The Jungle Book: $18 million ($240 million) 
3. Going in Style: $9 million 
4. Keanu: $8.5 million ($33 million) 
5. Ratchet and Clank: $7 million ($21 million) 
6. Mother's Day: $6.5 million ($22 million) 
7. The Huntsman Winter's War: $6 million ($67 million) 
8. Same Kind of Different as Me: $3 million ($10 million) 
9. Barbershop - The Final Cut: $2.5 million ($52 million) 
10. Zootopia: $1.5 million ($339 million) 

 

 

 

[Weekend Estimates (Page 25): Zootopia 73.7M | London Has Fallen 21.71M | Deadpool 16.4M | WTF 7.6M]

I'm thinking it'll end up with $19.5-20.5 million for Friday. 

 

Deadline, Variety and the others released projections far too early. They've already gone up $3 million and the day hasn't even finished. 

 

Anything over $16 million is excellent considering it's an original animated film in March. It could possibly get a 4x-4.25x from its $60 million+ OW if WOM is phenomenal - especially with no competition until April 15th. 

[Weekend Estimates (Page 25): Zootopia 73.7M | London Has Fallen 21.71M | Deadpool 16.4M | WTF 7.6M]

$1.7 million 

$24.3 million 

$35 million 

$25 million

 

$86 million OW

 

It'd be nice to see this size of an OW! 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

3/4-3/6

1. Zootopia: $78 million 
2. Deadpool: $20 million ($319 million) 
3. London Has Fallen: $16 million 
4. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $6.5 million 
5. The Other Side of the Door: $6 million 
6. Gods of Egypt: $5.5 million ($22 million) 
7. Risen: $5 million ($31 million) 
8. Kung Fu Panda 3: $3 million ($133 million) 
9. Eddie the Eagle: $4.5 million ($13 million) 
10. The Revenant: $4 million ($177 million) 

3/11-3/13

1. Zootopia: $51 million ($161 million) 
2. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $34 million 
3. The Young Messiah: $12.5 million 
4. Deadpool: $12 million ($339 million) 
5. The Brothers Grimsby: $8 million 
6. London Has Fallen: $7.5 million ($29 million) 
7. The Perfect Match: $4.5 million 
8. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $3.5 million ($12 million) 
9. Gods of Egypt: $3 million ($27 million) 
10. The Revenant: $2.5 million ($181 million) 

3/18-3/20

1. Zootopia: $38 million ($225 million) 
2. Allegiant: $37 million 
3. Miracles From Heaven: $25 million ($33 million) 
4. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $10 million ($54 million) 
5. Deadpool: $8 million ($353 million) 
6. The Young Messiah: $7 million ($24 million) 
7. London Has Fallen: $5 million ($38 million) 
8. The Brothers Grimsby: $3.5 million ($14 million) 
9. The Perfect Match: $3 million ($9 million) 
10. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $2.5 million ($16 million)

3/25-3/27

1. Batman vs. Superman: $164 million 
2. Zootopia: $21 million ($262 million) 
3. Miracles From Heaven: $18 million ($66 million) 
4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $14 million 
5. Allegiant: $12 million ($59 million) 
6. The Young Messiah: $5.5 million ($34 million) 
7. Deadpool: $3 million ($359 million) 
8. !0 Cloverfield Lane: $3 million ($60 million) 
9. London Has Fallen: $2 million ($41 million) 
10. The Brothers Grimsby: $1.5 million ($16 million) 

[Weekend Estimates: (Page 18): Deadpool 31.5M | Gods 14M | KFP 9M | Risen 7M | Eddie 6.3M | Triple 9 6.1M | Spectre 16k (lol)]

5 hours ago, picores said:

Kung Fu Panda 3 has rebounded nicely last weekends. 150m seems locked, will end close to KFP2's 165m.

... it could drop 60-70% against Zootopia's $60 million+ OW since that's the first film targeting its demo in a month. 

 

$145-150 million is the best case for it. $140-145 million more likely. 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

You need to revise your Witch and KFP 3 predictions  

Witch is getting some critical acclaim and didn't have a large marketing campaign. It should be a leggy WOM hit.

 

KFP3 has no competition and it's the last weekend before Zootopia takes away most of its screens. 

 

If it does $14.8 million this weekend, $11-12 million is plausible considering its WOM 

 

 

[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

2/26-2/28

1. Deadpool: $33 million ($286 million)
2. Gods of Egypt: $12 million 
3. Kung Fu Panda 3: $12 million ($133 million)
4. Risen: $8.5 million ($24 million) 
5. The Witch: $7 million ($19 million)
6. How to Be Single: $6 million ($41 million) 
7. Eddie the Eagle: $4.5 million 
8. Race: $4 million ($13 million) 
9. Triple Nine: $3.5 million 
10. Star Wars Episode VII: $2.75 million ($925 million) 

3/4-3/6

1. Zootopia: $80.5 million
2. Deadpool: $19 million ($315 million)
3. London Has Fallen: $14 million 
4. The Other Side of the Door: $7 million 
5. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $6.5 million 
6. Risen: $6 million ($33 million) 
7. Gods of Egypt: $5 million 
8. Kung Fu Panda 3: $4.5 million ($139 million) 
9. The Witch: $4 million ($25 million)
10. How to Be Single: $3.5 million ($47 million)

3/11-3/13

1. Zootopia: $47 million ($154 million)
2. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $42 million 
3. The Young Messiah: $11 million 
4. The Brothers Grimsby: $10 million 
5. Deadpool: $9 million ($330 million)
6. The Perfect Match: $6.5 million 
7. London Has Fallen: $6 million ($24 million) 
8. Risen: $3.5 million ($39 million) 
9. Kung Fu Panda 3: $3 million ($144 million) 
10. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $3 million ($11 million)

3/18-3/20

1. Allegiant: $40.5 million 
2. Zootopia: $34 million ($211 million) 
3. Miracles From Heaven: $24 million ($36 million) 
4. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $11 million ($62 million)
5. The Young Messiah: $6 million ($21 million) 
6. Deadpool: $5.5 million ($340 million)
7. The Brothers Grimsby: $3.5 million ($16 million) 
8. London Has Fallen: $3 million ($29 million) 
9. The Perfect Match: $2.5 million ($11 million) 
10. Risen: $2 million ($42 million) 

3/25-3/27

1. Batman vs. Superman: $162 million 
2. Miracles From Heaven: $18.5 million ($68 million) 
3. Zootopia: $18 million ($245 million) 
4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $15 mililon 
5. Allegiant: $13 million ($64 million) 
6. The Young Messiah: $4 million ($28 million) 
7. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $3.5 million ($69 million) 
8. Deadpool: $2 million ($344 million)
9. The Brothers Grimsby: $1.5 million ($19 million)
10. Risen: $1.5 million ($45 million)

4/1-4/3

1. Batman vs. Superman: $61 million ($267 million) 
2. God's Not Dead 2: $20.5 million 
3. Zootopia: $14 million ($267 million) 
4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $11 million ($35 million) 
5. Miracles From Heaven: $10 million ($84 million) 
6. Allegiant: $9 million ($81 million) 
7. Collide: $5 million
8. Amityville - The Awakening: $4 million 
9. The Young Messiah: $2 million ($31 million)
10. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $1.5 million ($72 million) 

4/8-4/10

1. Batman vs. Superman: $31 million ($316 million) 
2. The Boss: $27 million 
3. God's Not Dead 2: $12 million ($38 million)
4. Zootopia: $11 million ($283 million)
5. Miracles From Heaven: $7 million ($94 million) 
6. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $6.5 million ($46 million)
7. Allegiant: $6 million ($91 million) 
8. Hardcore Henry: $5.5 million 
9. Before I Wake: $3.5 million 
10. Collide: $2.5 million ($9 million) 

4/15-4/17

1. The Jungle Book: $83 million 
2. Barbershop - The Final Cut: $21 million 
3. Batman vs. Superman: $14.5 million ($338 million) 
4. The Boss: $14 million ($49 million) 
5. God's Not Dead 2: $8 million ($49 million)
6. Criminal: $7 million 
7. Zootopia: $5 million ($290 million) 
8. Miracles From Heaven: $4.5 million ($100 million) 
9. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $4 million ($52 million) 
10. Allegiant: $3.5 million ($97 million) 

[DEADPOOL WEEKEND THREAD | Deadpool 152.193 actual. Daily breakdown on page 159]

35 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Civil War and BvS might open below 150M which means opening below Deadpool.

 

Worst case for Civil War is probably $115-120 million OW (if it's Avengers 2 or Thor 2 quality), while BvS is probably $135-140 million 

 

The lack of competition should get BvS to $150-155 million OW, since it's the first PG-13 tentpole of 2016 (Allegiant doesn't count since it could have a $25-30 million OW ) 

 

I doubt Civil War does less than $140-150 million OW, unless the film is subpar. Early test screenings have been positive, so the Russos may have kept up the quality from CA2. 

 

Personally, I'm expecting the superhero films to turn out as:

1. Batman vs. Superman: $430 million 
2. Captain America - Civil War: $375 million 
3. Deadpool: $335 million 
4. Suicide Squad: $230 million 
5. X-Men - Apocalypse: $215 million 
6. Doctor Strange: $145 million 

If Deadpool holds better than I expect, it may finish #1 if BvS/Civil War underperform. But I think one of the two will cross $400 million and keep Deadpool from being the #1 CBM of 2016. 

 

 

 

[DEADPOOL WEEKEND THREAD | Deadpool 152.193 actual. Daily breakdown on page 159]

$47.5 million

$45 million (WC goes berserk)

$50 million

$29.5 million 

 

$142.5 million 3 day

$172 million 4 day

 

A tad optimistic ($150-155 million 4 day is more likely) but it should increase Sunday