mahnamahna
-
Posts
4,044 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by mahnamahna
-
-
$34 million OW
$95 million DOM
Dory before, Pets the week after... BFG really has no shot at a leggy run in its current spot. If Disney had just released Jungle Book in October 2015, they could have given April 8 or 15 to BFG - perfect spot for a mid-level fantasy adventure.
-
$270 million DOM OW
$950 million DOM
$2.7 billion WW
-
4 hours ago, Cochofles said:
Will any film designed to counterprogram work? I mean, Star Wars appeals to pretty much every demo out there, and it's obviously the event film of the season.
Daddy's Home. It'll be the first alternative if SW7 sells out for most families, since it looks slightly more interesting for adults/teens/kids over the age of 10 than Alvin 4
It's the kind of film that does $75 million+ DOM during Christmas time. (Parental Guidance, Little Fockers, Meet the Fockers, Cheaper by the Dozen 1 and 2, Bedtime Stories, etc). The last time this kind of movie did sub-$75 million during Christmas was... Fat Albert.
I also think Revenant and Hateful Eight won't be hurt by SW7 at all due to Oscar buzz and their R ratings. Sisters/Alvin 4 should be successful, too.
My guess for the top 12 December 2015 releases
- Star Wars Episode VII: $875 million
- The Hateful Eight: $150 million
- Daddy's Home: $130 million
- Sisters: $105 million
- The Revenant: $90 million
- Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $80 million
- Joy: $55 million
- Krampus: $45 million
- Concussion: $40 million
- In the Heart of the Sea: $35 million
- The Big Short: $30 million
- Point Break: $15 million
-
12/11-12/13
- Mockingjay Part 2: $15 million ($250 million)
- Creed: $14 million ($86 million)
- The Good Dinosaur: $13.5 million ($93 million)
- In the Heart of the Sea: $13 million
- Krampus: $11 million ($33 million)
- The Night Before: $4.5 million ($39 million)
- Spectre: $4 million ($190 million)
- Spotlight: $3.5 million ($21 million)
- Brooklyn: $3 million ($15 million)
- The Peanuts Movie: $2.5 million ($124 million)
12/18-12/20
- Star Wars Episode VII: $304 million
- Sisters: $16 million
- Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $13 million
- Creed: $8 million ($98 million)
- The Good Dinosaur: $6.5 million ($102 million)
- Mockingjay Part 2: $5 million ($258 million)
- Krampus: $3.5 million ($39 million)
- In the Heart of the Sea: $3 million ($18 million)
- Spotlight: $2.5 million ($25 million)
- The Night Before: $2 million ($42 million)
12/25-12/27
- Star Wars Episode VII: $160.5 million ($592 million)
- Daddy's Home: $30.5 million
- Sisters: $18 million ($50 million)
- Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $16.5 million ($45 million)
- Joy: $13 million
- Concussion: $11 million
- Creed: $10 million ($117 million)
- The Good Dinosaur: $9 million ($119 million)
- The Big Short: $6 million ($11 million)
- Mockingjay Part 2: $5.5 million ($269 million)
- Point Break: $4 million
- Spotlight: $3.5 million ($31 million)
- In the Heart of the Sea: $2.5 million ($23 million)
1/1-1/3
- Star Wars Episode VII: $109 million ($819 million)
- Daddy's Home: $25 million ($86 million)
- Sisters: $14.5 million ($80 million)
- Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $12 million ($73 million)
- Joy: $11 million ($37 million)
- Creed: $10.5 million ($138 million)
- Concussion: $8 million ($30 million)
- The Good Dinosaur: $7.5 million ($135 million)
- The Big Short: $5 million ($22 million)
- Mockingjay Part 2: $4.5 million ($279 million)
- Spotlight: $4 million ($39 million)
- Point Break: $2.5 million ($10 million)
- In the Heart of the Sea: $2 million ($28 million)
1/8-1/10
- Star Wars Episode VII: $52 million ($902 million)
- The Hateful Eight: $37 million ($42 million)
- The Revenant: $22 million ($24 million)
- Daddy's Home: $13 million ($104 million)
- The Forest: $8 million
- Sisters: $7.5 million ($92 million)
- Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $6.5 million ($82 million)
- Creed: $6 million ($148 million)
- Joy: $5 million ($45 million)
- The Good Dinosaur: $4 million ($140 million)
- Concussion: $3.5 million ($35 million)
- Spotlight: $3 million ($43 million)
1/15-1/17
- 13 Hours: $42.5 million/$53 million
- Star Wars Episode VII: $38 million/$46.5 million ($967 million)
- Ride Along 2: $33 million/$39 million
- The Hateful Eight: $28 million/$33.5 million ($84 million)
- The Revenant: $14 million/$17 million ($48 million)
- Daddy's Home: $9.5 million/$12 million ($117 million)
- The 5th Wave: $9 million/$11 million
- Norm of the North: $7 million/$9 million
- Spotlight: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($51 million)
- Creed: $5 million/$6 million ($157 million)
- Sisters: $4 million/$5 million ($99 million)
- Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $3.5 million/$5 million ($87 million)
1/22-1/24
- Star Wars Episode VII: $23.5 million ($1 billion)
- 13 Hours: $20 million ($83 million)
- The Hateful Eight: $16 million ($105 million)
- Ride Along 2: $15 million ($61 million)
- Dirty Grandpa: $9.5 million
- The Revenant: $8.5 million ($59 million)
- The Boy: $5.5 million
- Daddy's Home: $5 million ($123 million)
- Norm of the North: $4.5 million
- Spotlight: $4 million ($56 million)
- The 5th Wave: $3.5 million ($16 million)
- Creed: $3 million ($161 million)
1/29-1/31
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $52 million
- The Finest Hours: $16.5 million
- Star Wars Episode VII: $16 million ($1.024 billion)
- The Hateful Eight: $12 million ($123 million)
- 13 Hours: $10.5 million ($99 million)
- Fifty Shades of Black: $8 million
- Ride Along 2: $7 million ($72 million)
- The Revenant: $6.5 million ($69 million)
- Lights Out: $5.5 million
- Spotlight: $4.5 million ($62 million)
- Dirty Grandpa: $4 million ($16 million)
-
Adjusted predicts
$14 million OW
$65 million DOM
Good reviews would get it $20-25 million OW, but the reception makes it look rough. Bodes well for the other Oscar contenders in January/February
-
1
-
-
(in order of DOM gross)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $550 million+ DOM (being extra conservative!)
- Inside Out: $355 million
- The Martian: $230 million
- Mad Max - Fury Road: $155 million
- Creed: $145 million
- The Hateful Eight: $135 million
- The Revenant: $80 million
- Bridge of Spies: $75 million
- Spotlight: $40 million
- Brooklyn/Carol/Room: $? million
Mad Max and Creed are wild-cards.
-
-
2 hours ago, Blankments said:
Wish Creed held a bit better but good anyway
Sub-50% would be better than Blind Side over the same frame.
Should hold well even against SW7 due to WOM and its Oscar buzz.
$13 million ($83 million)
$8 million ($95 million)
$10.5 million ($114 million)
$9 million ($133 million)
$5 million ($141 million)
$4 million/$5 million ($148 million)
$2.5 million ($151 million)
$2 million ($154 million)
$1.25 million ($156 million)
$1 million ($157 million)
$160-162 million DOM
Of course, I'm also predicting a tiny drop next week, a sub-50% drop against SW7 and a solid increase over Christmas
but if Jordan and Stallone get some Oscar buzz, I could see it legging its way to $140-160 million DOM.
-
1
-
-
4 hours ago, Mojoguy said:
Disney should have switched Zootopia and TGD's release dates.
Release Zootopia over Thanksgiving 2015, and move TGD to March 2016.
I can't see how Zootopia would have done worse, and TGD would have faced less competition in March.More like:
Finding Dory - November 2015
The Good Dinosaur - March 2016
Zootopia - June 2016
Finding Dory would have been a surefire hit, even with MJ2 and SW7 as competition.
Good Dinosaur would benefit from no other kids movies to compete with.
Zootopia has enough buzz to do well even in a competitive June 2016 slot if it's a funny, inventive caper.
-
1
-
-
Possible BP nominees (in no particular order):
- Spotlight
- Carol
- Inside Out
- Joy
- Bridge of Spies
- The Martian
- Creed
- Star Wars - Episode VII: The Force Awakens
- The Revenant
- The Hateful Eight
-
2 minutes ago, misafeco said:
TGD won't do 20M. That would require a massive jump. It can win next weekend with a sub 30% drop if ItHotS flops.
Or Creed if it does $18-20 million this weekend. Even MJ2. All three could be above $15 million next week due to nothing substantial coming out
Meanwhile WB prepares for the inevitable $12-15 million OW... if it finishes 4th with Star Wars the weekend after it may finish at only $30-35 million DOM.
-
7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
It's interesting to see BOM expecting TGD to finish number one.
With a 43% drop too!
It's not Christmas themed, so a sub-50% drop over the post-Thanksgiving frame would be phenomenal.
Not to mention it should hold well next weekend before Star Wars takes most screens from everything, even Heart of the Sea (which normally would keep its screens in the 2nd weekend)
Could it still leg its way past $200 million?
-
- Toy Story 2
- Toy Story
- Inside Out
- Toy Story 3
- The Incredibles
- Monsters, Inc.
- Finding Nemo
- A Bug's Life
- Up
- Cars
- Monsters University
- WALL-E
- Ratatouille
- The Good Dinosaur
- Cars 2
- Brave
-
3 hours ago, RichWS said:
$330M? What the hell are you talking about?
I was just projecting the best case scenario for MJ2 at this point. 3-5% chance of happening
. I'm thinking $305-310 million personally.
I don't see it happening, but if it does $25-26 million this next weekend (50-52% drop), $320 million+ DOM is a possibility.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, misafeco said:
I don't see why is everyone predicting MJ2 a bigger 3rd weekend than MJ1's 3rd weekend.
Because it had a better 2nd weekend hold than MJ1. And also, it's made less than MJ1 so far, so a 50-55% drop isn't that unreasonable.
$22.5 million would give MJ2 a 57-58% drop. Not that hard to achieve.
-
14 minutes ago, misafeco said:
MJ2 vs. MJ1 comparison
MJ1 MJ2 % Fri 55,14 45,58 82,66 Sat 40,91 33,84 82,73 Sun 25,85 23,25 89,92 1st weekend 121,90 102,67 84,22 Mon 8,98 8,54 95,12 Tue 12,13 11,36 93,60 Wed 14,62 13,66 93,45 Thu 11,08 10,31 93,09 1st week 168,71 146,54 86,86 Fri 24,20 21,26 87,87 Sat 21,99 20,22 91,92 Sun 10,78 10,53 97,63 2nd weekend 56,97 52,00 91,28 Gross to date 225,68 198,55 87,98 Legs 1,85 1,93 104,46 Final gross* 337,14 300,28 89,07 *if MJ2 holds the last day's % The Sunday number is awesome.
The good thing is that MJ2 will only continue to improve its legs. Should have a slightly softer post-Thanksgiving drop and a better pre-Star Wars hold the following weekend.
$25 million ($236 million)
$19 million ($264 million)
$7 million ($275 million)
$10 million ($294 million)
$8.5 million ($312 million)
$4.5 million ($319 million)
$2.5 million/$3.25 million ($323 million)
$1.5 million ($326 million)
$1 million ($327 million)
$330-333 million seems to be the best case scenario for MJ2. Worst-case... $280-300 million DOM, which still beats the other 3 for best legs. a 3.3x would be extremely impressive.
I expect $300 million DOM+ as long as its next two weekends are stronger than MJ2's. Even with MJ2 losing a lot of screens to SW7, it'll still have the standard Christmas/New Year's bump to help it rebound. So I don't think SW7 will completely destroy its legs... however it will prevent it from passing MJ1.
-
3
-
-
51 minutes ago, Dexter of Suburbia said:
Peanuts was affect it could have made over 200n domestically.
No...
It's a low-key, G-rated comedy starring Charlie Brown. It was never meant to be a $200 million+ grosser - regardless of SW7. Even without SW7, it would probably end up at $150-170 million DOM.
It may have had a mild effect, but definitely not enough to boost Peanuts' final DOM by $65 million+.
Spectre and Peanuts would have performed marginally better at best ($15-25 million more for each... definitely not enough to call it a drastic improvement) if SW7 were releasing at another date.
-
Krampus: $13 million
The Letters: $2 million
-
Spectre? No, that was middling reception, the lack of 50th and Adele, and a muted marketing campaign by Sony. Universal or WB probably could have gotten it to $230-260 million DOM with their marketing departments.
Peanuts? No, that was HT2 and Goosebumps reducing the need for a family film at the beginning of November. Plus, as a low-key, easy-going G-rated comedy, $125-135 million DOM is about as much as you could reasonably expect.
The 33/Love the Coopers? No, that was both looking like Redbox/Netflix fodder
Mockingjay Part 2? Actually, a little bit. Lionsgate's marketing efforts weren't awful, but SW7's October/November advance ticket sales definitely detracted from MJ2's hype. It could very well end up legging its way past $300 million DOM despite the muted OW.
Night Before? A little bit. Seth Rogen targets a lot of the 20/30 something males that will want to see SW7.
Good Dinosaur? Definitely. Disney's almost treating GD as a write-off while they go full-force into SW7's marketing campaign.
Victor Frankenstein? It would have done $6-8 million max even without SW7
Creed? NO. It's potentially looking at a $150 million+ DOM total if it becomes an Oscar contender.
So SW7 is affecting Night Before, MJ2's OW (but not necessarily its legs) and Good Dinosaur. However, Spectre and Peanuts definitely came close to their realistic max potential. And Creed is becoming a big hit despite SW7.
-
Too bad Creed's chances at a BP nomination seem to be very low
-
5 hours ago, Halba said:
this ones a bomb. for a big budget pixar, its going to end well under 200m.
shocking.
mainly, the ave rating on RT, about 6.6/10 is subpar and well below recent pixar efforts like frozen etc.
There's still a chance at finishing $175 million+ for GD.
$20 million ($81 million) - softer OW allows slightly better hold than other Thanksgiving openers
$17.5 million ($104 million) - no competition + calm before SW7
$11 million ($119 million) - SW7 sellouts + double features should help it hold best against SW7 compared to MJ2, Heart of the Sea, etc.
$15 million ($148 million) - Christmas boost
$13 million ($176 million) - New Year's boost
$7 million ($187 million) - standard post-holiday drop
$5 million/$7 million ($195 million) - MLK
$3 million ($199 million) - post-MLK drop
$7-10 million in dollar-theater
Now I'm being EXTREMELY generous with holds, but even with heavier drops, $170-180 million is still achievable. I wouldn't say it's finished.
-
1
-
-
12/4-12/6
- Mockingjay Part 2: $25 million ($235 million)
- The Good Dinosaur: $20 million ($82 million)
- Creed: $17 million ($68 million)
- Krampus: $13 million
- Spectre: $6.5 million ($186 million)
- The Night Before: $5.5 million ($32 million)
- The Peanuts Movie: $4.5 million ($122 million)
- Spotlight: $2.5 million ($16 million)
- Brooklyn: $2 million ($10 million)
- Love the Coopers: $2 million ($23 million)
12/11-12/13
- In the Heart of the Sea: $28 million
- Mockingjay Part 2: $18.5 million ($263 million)
- The Good Dinosaur: $17.5 million ($105 million)
- Creed: $14 million ($89 million)
- Krampus: $9.5 million ($27 million)
- Spectre: $5 million ($194 million)
- The Night Before: $4.5 million ($39 million)
- Spotlight: $4 million ($21 million)
- Brooklyn: $3.5 million ($14 million)
- The Peanuts Movie: $3 million ($126 million)
12/18-12/20
- Star Wars Episode VII: $228 million
- Sisters: $12.5 million
- Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $11.5 million
- The Good Dinosaur: $10 million ($119 million)
- In the Heart of the Sea: $9 million ($43 million)
- Creed: $8 million ($102 million)
- Mockingjay Part 2: $7 million ($274 million)
- Krampus: $5.5 million ($36 million)
- Spotlight: $3 million ($25 million)
- The Night Before: $2.5 million ($43 million)
12/25-12/27
- Star Wars Episode VII: $139 million ($481 million)
- Daddy's Home: $25 million
- Joy: $21.5 million
- Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $17 million ($42 million)
- Sisters: $15 million ($41 million)
- The Good Dinosaur: $14.5 million ($147 million)
- Creed: $10 million ($121 million)
- Concussion: $8.5 million
- Mockingjay Part 2: $8 million ($289 million)
- The Big Short: $7.5 million ($15 million)
- In the Heart of the Sea: $6 million ($54 million)
- Point Break: $4.5 million
1/1-1/3
- Star Wars Episode VII: $106 million ($697 million)
- Daddy's Home: $21 million ($72 million)
- Joy: $18 million ($60 million)
- Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $15 million ($74 million)
- Sisters: $12 million ($67 million)
- The Good Dinosaur: $11.5 million ($171 million)
- Creed: $10.5 million ($143 million)
- Concussion: $6.5 million ($23 million)
- Mockingjay Part 2: $6 million ($303 million)
- The Big Short: $5.5 million ($28 million)
- In the Heart of the Sea: $4 million ($64 million)
- Point Break: $2.5 million ($9 million)
1/8-1/10
- Star Wars Episode VII: $51 million ($776 million)
- The Hateful Eight: $32 million ($36 million)
- The Revenant: $22 million ($25 million)
- Daddy's Home: $11 million ($88 million)
- Joy: $10.5 million ($76 million)
- Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $8 million ($85 million)
- The Forest: $7 million
- Sisters: $6 million ($76 million)
- The Good Dinosaur: $5.5 million ($179 million)
- Creed: $5 million ($151 million)
1/15-1/18
- 13 Hours: $41 million/$52 million
- Star Wars Episode VII: $36 million/$46 million ($840 million)
- Ride Along 2: $32 million/$39 million
- The Hateful Eight: $22 million/$27 million ($74 million)
- The Revenant: $16.5 million/$20 million ($53 million)
- The 5th Wave: $9.5 million/$11.5 million
- Joy: $8.5 million/$10 million ($90 million)
- Daddy's Home: $8 million/$10 million ($101 million)
- Norm of the North: $7 million/$9 million
- Alvin and the Chipmunks 4: $5 million/$6.5 million ($92 million)
- The Good Dinosaur: $4 million/$5.5 million ($181 million)
- Sisters: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($82 million)
- Creed: $4 million/$5 million ($158 million)
1/22-1/24
- Star Wars Episode VII: $23.5 million ($873 million)
- 13 Hours: $22 million ($82 million)
- Ride Along 2: $15 million ($60 million)
- The Hateful Eight: $13 million ($92 million)
- The Revenant: $10.5 million ($67 million)
- Dirty Grandpa: $8.5 million
- Joy: $5.5 million ($97 million)
- The Boy: $5 million
- The 5th Wave: $4.5 million ($19 million)
- Daddy's Home: $3.5 million ($105 million)
1/29-1/31
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $56 million
- The Finest Hours: $20.5 million
- Star Wars Episode VII: $16 million ($897 million)
- 13 Hours: $12 million ($100 million)
- The Hateful Eight: $10.5 million ($108 million)
- The Revenant: $9 million ($81 million)
- Lights Out: $8.5 million
- Ride Along 2: $8 million ($72 million)
- Fifty Shades of Black: $6.5 million
- Joy: $4.5 million ($104 million)
2/5-2/7
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $30 million ($96 million)
- Hail Caesar!: $21.5 million
- Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $11 million
- The Choice: $10.5 million
- The Finest Hours: $10 million ($36 million)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $9.5 million ($912 million)
- The Hateful Eight: $6.5 million ($118 million)
- 13 Hours: $5.5 million ($109 million)
- The Revenant: $5 million ($89 million)
- Joy: $3 million ($108 million)
2/12-2/15
- Deadpool: $47.5 million/$60 million
- Zoolander 2: $33 million/$41 million
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $25 million/$31.5 million ($135 million)
- How to Be Single: $20.5 million/$26 million
- Hail Caesar!: $14 million/$17.5 million ($46 million)
- The Choice: $9 million/$10.5 million ($26 million)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $7.5 million/$9 million ($924 million)
- Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $7 million/$8 million ($23 million)
- The Finest Hours: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($45 million)
- THe Hateful Eight: $5 million/$6 million ($126 million)
- The Revenant: $4 million/$4.75 million ($96 million)
- Joy: $4 million/$4.75 million ($115 million)
- 13 Hours: $3 million/$3.75 million ($114 million)
2/19-2/21
- Risen: $28.5 million
- Deadpool: $21 million ($91 million)
- Zoolander 2: $16 million ($64 million)
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $14 million ($152 million)
- Race: $12 million
- How to Be Single: $9 million ($38 million)
- Hail Caesar!: $8 million ($58 million)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $5 million ($930 million)
- Shut In: $4.5 million
- The Choice: $4 million ($31 million)
2/26-2/28
- Gods of Egypt: $21 million
- Risen: $19 million ($57 million)
- Deadpool: $11 million ($107 million)
- Zoolander 2: $10 million ($79 million)
- Kidnap: $8 million
- Race: $7 million ($23 million)
- Hail Caesar!: $5.5 million ($66 million)
- How to Be Single: $5 million ($45 million)
- Tripe 9: $4 million
- Star Wars Episode VII: $3.5 million ($935 million)
3/4-3/6
- Zootopia: $57.5 million
- London Has Fallen: $16 million
- Me Before You: $12.5 million
- Risen: $12 million ($76 million)
- Gods of Egypt: $8 million ($34 million)
- Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $6.5 million
- Deadpool: $6 million ($117 million)
- Zoolander: $4.5 million ($87 million)
- Hail Caesar!: $4 million ($73 million)
- Race: $4 million ($29 million)
3/11-3/13
- Zootopia: $38 million ($111 million)
- The Brothers Grimsby: $17 million
- The Other Side of the Door: $11 million
- The Young Messiah: $10.5 million
- London Has Fallen: $7 million ($28 million)
- Me Before You: $6 million ($23 million)
- Risen: $5.5 million ($85 million)
- Valencia: $5 million
- Deadpool: $3.5 million ($123 million)
- Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $3 million ($11 million)
3/18-3/20
- Allegiant: $38 million
- Miracles From Heaven: $27.5 million
- Zootopia: $25.5 million ($152 million)
- The Brothers Grimsby: $8 million ($31 million)
- The Young Messiah: $5.5 million ($20 million)
- The Other Side of the Door: $4.5 million ($19 million)
- London Has Fallen: $4 million ($35 million)
- Me Before You: $3.5 million ($29 million)
- Risen: $3 million ($90 million)
- Valencia: $2.5 million ($9 million)
3/25-3/27
- Batman Vs. Superman: $168 million
- My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $21.5 million
- Miracles From Heaven: $21 million ($64 million)
- Zootopia: $17 million ($181 million)
- Allegiant: $13 million ($61 million)
- The Young Messiah: $4 million ($27 million)
- The Brothers Grimsby: $3 million ($36 million)
- The Other Side of the Door: $2 million ($22 million)
- Risen: $2 million ($94 million)
- London Has Fallen: $1.5 million ($37 million)
-
1
-
1 hour ago, DAJK said:
If Creed does "only" 6.4M that would be on par with Rocky Balboa. Are we looking at 21M 5-day?
No.
1.4
5
5
11.5
10.5
7
40.4 for the 5 day
Should hold better today and Sunday than Good Dinosaur or MJ2 since it's not targeting teens/kids
Great for all 3
-
14
11
22
20
11
Could have a $78 million 5 day. Not bad for MJ2. Should be able to leg its way to $275-305 million
-
1
-
Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby
in Box Office Derby
Posted · Edited by mahnamahna
12/18-12/20
12/25-12/27
1/1-1/3