mahnamahna
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Posts posted by mahnamahna
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20 minutes ago, CJohn said:
48M OD lmao. There is a real chance it ends as the biggest comic-book movie of the
year.More like a slight chance.
Deadpool would have to finish $375 million+ DOM to have a legitimate chance at being the biggest superhero movie of the year. And even then, I'd imagine either Civil War or BvS (or even both) will likely cross $400 million DOM. Plus, Suicide Squad has a minor outside chance at GotG/Deadpool numbers (I'm thinking $200-250 million, since Bourne 5/Star Trek 3 are much bigger competition than KFP3/Zoolander 2 )
Deadpool should finish with $275-315 million DOM... phenomenal for a $58 million-budgeted R-rated spin-off of the X-Men franchise released in February.
But 2nd place is the highest I see it going among SH films for 2016... 3rd place more likely IMO (when everybody expected it to finish 6th)
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24 minutes ago, a2knet said:
47.5m => 12.7m + 34.8m
Do you guys think Saturday will increase from non-preview Friday (34.8m)? Normally it should increase 10-15% for ~40m. But with Deadpool behaving so insanely I am automatically being conservative and trying to temper it's future performance. Should stay flat at 35m. At worst go down by ~10% for 32m.
47.5
37.5
35
22
$142 million 4-day
$285-305 million DOM finish, because X-Men films tend to be extremely frontloaded (so a 2x-2.2x from the 4 day is pretty reasonable)
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2 hours ago, a2knet said:
Deadpool 4-day Over GL Dom
12.7
32.3
34 (79)
32 (111)
21 (132)
IN
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2/12-2/15
- Deadpool: $86.5 million/$102 million
- Zoolander 2: $30.5 million/$37 million
- How to Be Single: $23 million/$26.5 million
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $18 million/$22.5 million ($97 million)
- Hail, Caesar!: $8 million/$9 million ($25 million)
- The Revenant: $7 million/$8 million ($160 million)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $6 million/$7 million ($916 million)
- The Choice: $5 million/$5.5 million ($13 million)
- The Finest Hours: $3.5 million/$4 million ($24 million)
- Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $3 million/$3.5 million ($10 million)
- The Boy: $3 million/$3.5 million ($31 million)
- Ride Along 2: $2.5 million/$3 million ($80 million)
2/19-2/21
- Deadpool: $30 million ($148 million)
- Risen: $22 million
- Zoolander 2: $16.5 million ($61 million)
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $12 million ($111 million)
- How to Be Single: $11 million ($41 million)
- Race: $8.5 million
- The Revenant: $5.5 million ($167 million)
- Hail, Caesar!: $5 million ($31 million)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $4 million ($921 million)
- The Witch: $3 million
2/26-2/28
- Deadpool: $18 million ($175 million)
- Risen: $16 million ($44 million)
- Gods of Egypt: $12 million
- Zoolander 2: $10 million ($76 million)
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $9 million ($122 million)
- How to Be Single: $6.5 million ($51 million)
- Race: $5 million ($16 million)
- Triple Nine: $4.5 million
- Eddie the Eagle: $4 million
- The Revenant: $3.5 million ($172 million)
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1 hour ago, tribefan695 said:
Man, February looks like it's gonna suck this year
Other than Deadpool/Zoolander 2/How to Be Single, the BO should be pretty weak. Zoolander 2 may miss $60 million DOM and HTBS may miss $45 million DOM. Only Deadpool looks primed to perform well.
March looks well-rounded, though:
Batman vs. Superman - $425 million
Zootopia - $250 million
Miracles From Heaven - $115 million
Allegiant - $100 million
MBFGW2 - $80 million
10 Cloverfield Lane - $65 million
The Brothers Grimsby - $50 million
Not to mention the other 8-10 wide releases
A lot stronger than March 2015... and if a few films other than Jungle Book do well in April (The Boss, Rings, Barbershop 3, Huntsman 2), 2016 should stay on track to be a solid year.
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Hail, Caesar!: $18 million
The Choice: $10 million
Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $7 million
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2/5-2/7
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $25 million ($71 million)
- Hail, Caesar!: $18 million
- The Choice: $10 million
- The Revenant: $8 million ($150 million)
- Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $6.5 million
- Star Wars Episode VII: $6 million ($904 million)
- The Finest Hours: $5 million ($17 million)
- The Boy: $4.5 million ($28 million)
- Ride Along 2: $4 million ($76 million)
- 13 Hours: $3.5 million ($48 million)
2/12-2/15
- Deadpool: $76 million/$93 million
- Zoolander 2: $30.5 million/$37 million
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $21 million/$27 million ($104 million)
- How to Be Single: $20.5 million/$24 million
- Hail, Caesar!: $14 million/$16.5 million ($42 million)
- The Choice: $9 million/$10 million ($25 million)
- The Revenant: $8.5 million/$10 million ($164 million)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($912 million)
- The Finest Hours: $4 million/$4.5 million ($23 million)
- Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $3.5 million/$4 million ($12 million)
2/19-2/21
- Deadpool: $26.5 million ($133 million)
- Risen: $22 million
- Zoolander 2: $16 million ($60 million)
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $13 million ($120 million)
- How to Be Single: $9 million ($37 million)
- Hail, Caesar!: $8 million ($53 million)
- Race: $7 million
- The Revenant: $6.5 million ($173 million)
- The Choice: $4.5 million ($30 million)
- The Witch: $4 million
2/26-2/28
- Risen: $16 million ($46 million)
- Deadpool: $15 million ($156 million)
- Gods of Egypt: $12 million
- Zoolander 2: $10.5 million ($76 million)
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $9.5 million ($132 million)
- Hail, Caesar!: $6 million ($62 million)
- How to Be Single: $5 million ($44 million)
- The Revenant: $4.5 million ($180 million)
- Triple Nine: $3.5 million
- Eddie the Eagle: $3 million
3/4-3/6
- Zootopia: $72 million
- London Has Fallen: $13 million
- Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $11.5 million
- Risen: $10 million ($61 million)
- Deadpool: $9 million ($170 million)
- Desierto: $6 million
- Gods of Egypt: $5 million ($20 million)
- Zoolander 2: $4.5 million ($83 million)
- Hail, Caesar!: $4 million ($68 million)
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $3.5 million ($137 million)
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1 minute ago, Maxmoser3 said:
2016 is a year that will be so-so in comparison to last year. This January looked flat because Star Wars was locked to make some money in January, Ride Along 2 wasn't a surprise(at least to me) to drop from its predecessor like Think Like A Man Too did back in the summer of 2014. 13 Hours was expected to do modest numbers. Really the big film that surprised this month was The Revenant. February has one big release (Deadpool) Zoolander 2 will probably make about 55-65 million domestic. Hail, Caesar! Will make 30-35 million domestic. Risen might make some profit. How To Be Single will be front-loaded. Pride & Prejudice:Zombies, Gods Of Egypt, Triple 9, and the others will bomb. March has two big hits Zootopia, and BVS:Dawn Of Justice. Allegiant, London Has Fallen, and Brothers Grimsby will bomb. 10 Cloverfield Lane might surprise or break even for Paramount. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 will take a large dive from its predcessor. April has two potential hits (Jungle Book, and maybe Huntsman) as well as some possible surprise hits such as The Boss. The summer looks decent . The fall looks bland. November and December look eh. 2016 will fall short of the record.
Fall 2016 looks solid!
- Storks: $165 million
- The Girl on the Train: $150 million
- The Magnificent Seven: $135 million
- Inferno: $105 million
- Sully: $100 million
- A Monster Calls: $80 million
- Jack Reacher 2: $70 million
- Underworld 5: $60 million
- The Accountant: $50 million
- Ouija 2: $45 million
Nothing mind-boggling, but still solid
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19 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:
Early impression from 2016 (even in a notoriously weak month historically)... This is going to be one of the least attended years in recent movie history. Schedule is weak & performance will match that.
I wouldn't write off 2016 until May-June.
The first big film of 2016 was released this weekend... Deadpool, Zootopia, BvS, Jungle Book, CA3, Alice 2, X-Men Apocalypse on the horizon... Finding Dory, Central Intelligence, ID42, Pets, Star Trek 3, Ghostbusters, Bourne 5, SS, Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts, Moana, Rogue One, Sing.... the lineup is a lot stronger than you think. Instead of being top-heavy, it might be more well-rounded where nothing tops $450 million, but 15 films cross $190-210 million DOM.
If Deadpool does less than Kingsman, Zoolander 2 misses $80 million and Zootopia does Good Dinosaur #s, then 2016 is in trouble.
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On 1/22/2016 at 5:49 PM, WrathOfHan said:
10 nominees for acting would be really excessive.
10 nominees could work... at the very least, it would prevent blatant snubs, since there's rarely more than 10 serious contenders. With 40 nominees, nearly every great performance from that year should be included.
Best Actor
- Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
- Michael B. Jordan - Creed
- Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
- Steve Carell - The Big Short
- Matt Damon - The Martian
- Jacob Trembley - Room
- Ian McKellen - Mr. Holmes
- Johnny Depp - Black Mass
- Will Smith - Concussion
Best Actress
- Brie Larson - Room
- Charlize Theron - Mad Max: Fury Road
- Cate Blanchett - Carol
- Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
- Amy Schumer - Trainwreck
- Saorise Ronan - Brooklyn
- Emily Blunt - Sicario
- Lily Tomlin - Grandma
- Alicia Vidnakier - The Danish Girl
- Rooney Mara - Carol
Best Supporting Actor
- Sylvester Stallone - Creed
- Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
- Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation
- Bencio del Toro - Sicario
- Oscar Issac - Ex Machina
- Samuel L. Jackson - The Hateful Eight
- Paul Dano - Love and Mercy
- Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
- Christian Bale - The Big Short
- O'Shea Jackson - Straight Outta Compton
Best Supporting Actress
- Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight
- Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
- Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs
- Alicia Vidnakier - Ex Machina
- Tessa Thompson - Creed
- Mya Taylor - Tangerine
- Jennifer Hudson - Chi-Raq
- Kristen Stewart - Clouds of Sils Maria
- Helen Mirren - Trumbo
- Rebecca Ferguson - Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation (because why not )
With 40 nominees instead of 20, you get a wide variety of people represented. I don't necessarily want the Academy to do this, but I wouldn't be upset if they did. The AMPAS can nominate however many they like since it's their ceremony
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2 hours ago, Kalo said:
Do you have amazon instant? Ex Machina is free to stream there right now... and it must be including on your list.
I personally don't, but I know people who do. Maybe I can get them to watch with me haha.
I love sci-fi, so it's definitely one I'm interested in!
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Way too many unseen 2015 films for me to submit an accurate list lol
Ones I haven't seen (ones that might actually make my list)
- The Hunting Ground
- It Follows
- Ex Machina
- Spy
- Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
- Dope
- Mr. Holmes
- Straight Outta Compton
- Shaun the Sheep Movie
- The Gift
- The Visit
- Black Mass
- Everest
- 99 Homes
- Sicario
- The Walk
- Room
- Goosebumps
- Bridge of Spies
- Brooklyn
- Spotlight
- Mockingjay Part 2
- Creed
- Joy
- The Revenant
- The Big Short
- Anomalisa
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January-April
- Batman vs. Superman: $430 million
- The Jungle Book: $310 million
- Zootopia: $245 million
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $185 million
- Deadpool: $170 million
- Miracles From Heaven: $120 million
- Zoolander 2: $115 million
- Allegiant Part 1: $100 million
May-August
- Finding Dory: $520 million
- Captain America - Civil War: $385 million
- Suicide Squad: $305 million
- The Secret Lives of Pets: $280 million
- X-Men - Apocalypse: $260 million
- Ghostbusters: $230 million
- Independence Day - Resurgence: $205 million
- Star Trek Beyond: $185 million
- Central Intelligence: $180 million
- Bourne 5: $160 million
- Alice Through the Looking Glass: $155 million
- Neighbors 2 - Sorority Rising: $125 million
- Ice Age 5: $120 million
- TMNT 2: $115 million
- The Conjuring 2: $110 million
- Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $105 million
- Pete's Dragon: $100 million
September-October
- Rogue One: $475 million
- Moana: $330 million
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $215 million
- Sing: $200 million
- Doctor Strange: $150 million
- Storks: $145 million
- The Magnificent Seven: $135 million
- The Girl on the Train: $125 million
- Passengers: $110 million
- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk: $115 million
- The Founder: $110 million
- Gambit: $105 million
- Sully: $100 million
- Silence: $100 million
2016 has a much stronger Spring lineup and Sept-Oct is much more well-rounded. If Summer 2016 is well-rounded and a few more end up doing $100 million DOM (Warcraft, Angry Birds, NYSM2 and BFG being the primary wildcards), I'd say this club should happen!
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$36 million 3 day OW
$44 million 4 day
$110 million DOM
Less than Anchorman 2, but more than Dumb and Dumber To. Pretty reasonable.
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3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
Honestly, TFA's number is fantastic considering the storm. I don't see how it wouldn't have done at least 17m this weekend without that, I'm sure the big city shutdowns cost it a solid 2-3m. So next weekend's drop should be very light.
Revenant, SW7 and Big Short should have sub-30% drops to make up for this week.
Revenant could even do $14-14.5m (makes up for 49% drop this week) while Big Short might stay flat.
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1/29-1/31
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $57 million
- 50 Shades of Black: $20 million
- The Finest Hours: $17 million
- The Revenant: $14 million ($140 million)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $11 million ($896 million)
- Ride Along 2: $7.5 million ($69 million)
- 13 Hours: $5.5 million ($41 million)
- Dirty Grandpa: $4.5 million ($18 million)
- The Boy: $3.5 million ($15 million)
- The 5th Wave: $3 million ($13 million)
2/5-2/7
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $34 million ($101 million)
- Hail, Caesar!: $24 million
- The Choice: $11 million
- The Revenant: $9.5 million ($154 million)
- The Finest Hours: $8.5 million ($30 million)
- 50 Shades of Black: $7 million ($31 million)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $6.5 million ($906 million)
- Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $6 million
- Ride Along 2: $4 million ($75 million)
- 13 Hours: $2.5 million ($46 million)
2/12-2/15
- Deadpool: $72 million/$91.5 million
- Zoolander 2: $36 million/$44 million
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $27 million/$33.5 million ($142 million)
- How to Be Single: $18 million/$21.5 million
- Hail, Caesar!: $16 million/$19 million ($51 million)
- The Revenant: $10.5 million/$12 million ($170 million)
- The Choice: $9 million/$10 million ($25 million)
- The Finest Hours: $6 million/$6.75 million ($40 million)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($915 million)
- 50 Shades of Black: $4 million/$4.5 million ($37 million)
2/19-2/21
- Risen: $25 million
- Deadpool: $24 million ($128 million)
- Zoolander 2: $16 million ($68 million)
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $14 million ($159 million)
- Hail, Caesar!: $9 million ($63 million)
- The Revenant: $8.5 million ($181 million)
- Race: $7.5 million
- How to Be Single: $7 million ($31 million)
- The Witch: $4.5 million
- The Choice: $4 million ($30 million)
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On 1/11/2016 at 0:51 AM, langer said:
I'm not saying it's impossible. Finding Nemo's original run adjust to around 470M$ and it didn't have much competition in its demographic aside from a Rugrats movie and POTC in its 7th week and Spy Kids in its 9th week.
This one is gonna have Tarzan in its 3rd week, Secret life of Pets in its 4th week and Ice Age in its 6th week. This is a very different market than 13 years ago.
?
POTC 1: $440 million (adjusted)
Spy Kids 3D: $160 million (adjusted)
Rugrats Go Wild: $57 million (adjusted)
SoLP: $275 million (reasonable predict)
Ice Age 5: $130 million (decline from IA4 is expected)
Tarzan: $65 million (bomb waiting to happen)
And 2015 taught us that audiences will reject the other tentpoles if there's 4-5 that REALLY get them excited (Avengers 2/JW/IO/Minions accounting for a large amount of summer 2015 BO)
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On 1/14/2016 at 9:36 PM, pieman said:
Can Sisters reach 100M?
At this point, no.
It really needed to be at $80 million by January 3rd to have a decent chance at $100 million DOM. Ride Along 2 and Bad Grandpa are now here to take its screens away.
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$17 million ($884 million)
$12.5 million ($903 million)
$7 million ($914 milion)
$6 million/$7 million ($924 million)
$3.5 million ($929 million)
$2 million ($932 million)
$1 million ($934 million)
$935-940 million
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$25 million ($36 million 5-day debut)
$19 million ($68 million)
$13 million ($89 million)
$10 million ($104 million)
$6.5 million ($113 million)
$5 million ($120 million)
$4 million ($125 million)
$2 million ($128 million)
$134 million DOM
Could become a big sleeper hit
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- Silence
- Sully
- The Founder
- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
- Story of My Life
- Passengers
- The Girl on the Train
- The Circle
- The Promise
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Phenomenal for The Revenant. On its way to $175 million+. If it weren't for the $140 million budget
Ride Along 2 should get $95-105 million... not bad for a comedy sequel
SW7 on its way to $950 million, potentially
Daddy's Home quietly reaches $150 million
Big Short on its way to $75-85 million DOM
Sisters just might reach $95-100 million.. Alvin 4 did great considering how much competition it had
Spotlight may reach $40 million+ if it continues expanding each week.
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1/22-1/24
- The Revenant: $20 million ($120 million)
- Ride Along 2: $17 million ($61 million)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $16 million ($878 million)
- Dirty Grandpa: $14 million
- 13 Hours: $10 million ($32 million)
- The 5th Wave: $7 million
- Daddy's Home: $5 million ($137 million)
- The Big Short: $4.5 million ($57 million)
- Norm of the North: $4 million ($13 million)
- The Boy: $4 million
1/29-1/31
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $64 million
- The Finest Hours: $24 million
- The Revenant: $16 million ($144 million)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $10.5 million ($893 million)
- Ride Along 2: $10 million ($76 million)
- Fifty Shades of Black: $6.5 million
- 13 Hours: $6 million ($41 million)
- Dirty Grandpa: $5.5 million ($23 million)
- The Big Short: $4 million ($63 million)
- Jane Got a Gun: $3.5 million
2/5-2/7
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $34 million ($108 million)
- Hail, Caesar!: $19.5 million
- The Finest Hours: $13 million ($44 million)
- The Revenant: $10 million ($159 million)
- Pride and Prejudice and Zombies: $7.5 million
- The Choice: $7 million
- Ride Along 2: $6 million ($85 million)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $5.5 million ($902 million)
- The Big Short: $3 million ($67 million)
- 13 Hours: $3 million ($46 million)
2/12-2/15
- Deadpool: $65 million/$78 million
- Zoolander 2: $30.5 million/$35.5 million
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $27 million/$34 million ($150 million)
- How to Be Single: $22 million/$25.5 million
- Hail, Caesar!: $12 million/$14 million ($39 million)
- The Revenant: $9.5 million/$11 million ($174 million)
- The Finest Hours: $7 million/$8 million ($56 million)
- The Choice: $6 million/$6.5 million ($17 million)
- Ride Along 2: $5 million/$5.75 million ($93 million)
- Star Wars Episode VII: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($910 million)
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1/15-1/18
- Ride Along 2: $42 million/$51 million
- Star Wars Episode VII: $35 million/$44 million ($873 million)
- The Revenant: $30.5 million/$37 million ($93 million)
- 13 Hours: $25 million/$30 million
- Daddy's Home: $10.5 million/$14 million ($133 million)
- Norm of the North: $8.5 million/$12 million
- The Big Short: $8 million/$9.5 million ($56 million)
- Sisters: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($82 million)
- The Hateful Eight: $4 million/$4.75 million ($47 million)
- Spotlight: $3 million/$3.5 million ($33 million)
1/22-1/24
- Star Wars Episode VII: $21 million ($903 million)
- Ride Along 2: $19.5 million ($80 million)
- The Revenant: $18 million ($120 million)
- Dirty Grandpa: $11.5 million
- 13 Hours: $11 million ($45 million)
- The 5th Wave: $7 million
- The Big Short: $5.5 million ($63 million)
- Daddy's Home: $5 million ($140 million)
- Norm of the North: $4.5 million ($17 million)
- The Boy: $3.5 million
1/29-1/31
- Kung Fu Panda 3: $62 million
- The Finest Hours: $20.5 million
- Star Wars Episode VII: $15 million ($926 million)
- The Revenant: $13 million ($139 million)
- Ride Along 2: $10 million ($95 million)
- Fifty Shades of Black: $7 million
- 13 Hours: $5 million ($53 million)
- The Big Short: $4.5 million ($70 million)
- Dirty Grandpa: $3.5 million ($17 million)
- The 5th Wave: $3 million ($12 million)
Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby
in Box Office Derby
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