mahnamahna

Have you read the reviews? They've flat out said, unlike the first two DMs, Minions doesn't even try to entertain adults. Where's the thematic depth? Where's the narrative substance? Pixar, most WDAS, Studio Ghibli, some DreamWorks, Laika and Aardman have this in spades. Somehow, I can't imagine Minions has this, just based off reviews and the trailers. If you can find that, I might admit Minions have artistic integrity. Visually, it may look good, but the story is almost non-existent. Decent animation doesn't make a film great. It could have easily been written over 2-3 days, like Rocky. "Minions look for greatest supervillain to serve". Way too easy to come up with that idea.

DM1-2 were solid enough... just good enough for kids movies. Minions is mediocre, but if it were a solid spinoff with enough for teens/adults to enjoy, I wouldn't mind it. 'Cash grabs' aren't bad, but some effort needs to be put into them.

Did you even read my response? I flat-out said all sequels are cash-grabs. But not all movies are. David Lynch, PTA, Kubrick, David Cronenberg, Inarritu, etc... none of them make their movies solely to make money. In fact, most of their films weren't remotely mainstream-friendly. But like others have pointed out, just because something is intended to make money doesn't mean you should provide a second-rate product. Pixar is generally first-rate. Minions appears to be bottom-of-the-barrel. The original Star Wars trilogy may be a cash-grab, but effort was put into the film to make it compelling. Same goes for Jaws, Raiders, BTTF, E.T., Ghostbusters, Roger Rabbit, JP, T2, Aliens, etc. All I was saying is that Minions puts zero effort into actually giving the audience over the age of 7 something remotely enjoyable, while countless other animated films (non-Pixar ones included) bother to give teens/adults something to enjoy. It's a 'bad' cash grab because it has no real thematic depth or worth. Other sequels (Pixar or non-Pixar) have more to offer to their respective franchises. I'm not screaming in rage about Minions making money. I was just responding to Baumer's anti-Pixar/pro-Minions remark. I honestly want both to do well. But I'm just trying to point out how Minions is a 'bad' cash grab, while IO is a 'good' cash grab. One has artistic depth/merit, while the other is complete fluff. ^this. Just because you're trying to make money doesn't mean to provide mediocre garbage on the pretense that 'audiences will eat it up'. Is it really crazy to expect a half-way decent movie? No one ever said that. I even said multiple times that Pixar does cash-grabs. I was just pointing out how Pixar actually gives the audience something of high-quality or decent quality to back up that 'cash grab'. Minions appears to have zero substance... hence why it's a mediocre 'cash grab'.

It's a bad attempt at a cash grab because it adds NOTHING to the DM universe. The Minions are still morons at the end. Scarlett Overkill probably won't be in DM3, so any development of her character is a wash. No one really grows in the film. Any sequel is a cash grab. I won't deny it. But doing it solely to make money is what makes it bad. Putting zero effort into the story is what makes it bad. Regardless of how much money Pixar makes, all of their films except Cars 2 had at least some effort put into the story. Same goes for Studio Ghibli, Laika, Aardman and some of DreamWorks. It doesn't really do anything except give little kids something stupid to laugh at for 90 minutes - there's nothing for adults, based on early reviews. Even the first two DM had Gru's personal development and his relationship with the girls to keep adults interested. I won't deny that Toy Story 2-3 were conceived as cash grabs. However, unlike Illumination, Pixar bothered to give the audience something a little more than 'just what they want' (more Woody/Buzz) and as a result, created one of the best trilogies of all time, just going off general consensus (your opinion about the TS trilogy is in the minority). Minions certainly doesn't add anything. There's nothing deep about it. There's no real character arc. The Minions stay the same and appear to always remain mere simpletons. Same goes for Kung Fu Panda, HTTYD, MU, Puss in Boots and the first Shrek sequel. Even DM2 had more to offer than Minions. They were all cash grabs, but the creative teams behind them actually put some effort into giving teens/adults something to enjoy, while still entertaining kids. The Cars franchise is awful - so I'm not just a Pixar loony. Both are blatant cash grabs. But the first Cars has enough for adults where I wouldn't equate it with Minions. Cars 2 is equally awful as the Minions spinoff though. Shrek the Third, Shrek Forever After, Ice Age 2-4, Madagascar 2-3, Rio 2, Penguins of Madagascar, Cars 2 - all examples of how NOT to do a cash grab. Not just Pixar, but any animation studio. A cash grab sequel is fine if well-done (Toy Story 2-3, Empire Strikes Back, TDK, Last Crusade, JW, Captain America 2, Godfather Part II, etc)

It's for older adults who normally wouldn't go see a silly kids movie. Not kids/teens/parents lol. There might be someone without kids and has zero interest in the Minions - "Oh, Sandra Bullock's in this? I liked her in that Blind Side and Gravity. This could be cute." Maybe not a huge effect, but for those who don't like the Minions necessarily, but like her, she might push a few of the older casual moviegoers towards it. Maybe $10-12 million, but without her, the movie would decline very slightly. Sandra Bullock has the Midas touch, for whatever reason, over the last 5 years.

Considering how mediocre it is, that would be phenomenal. It's also a spinoff, which makes that number solid.

Agreed. Most of the time, audiences/critics agree. JW, IO, Avengers 2, Furious 7, Mad Max, PP2, SpongeBob 2, Kingsman, American Sniper, Paddington, Cinderella... all Fresh with critics and GA. Yes, there's outliers, but they generally agree aside from stuff like Michael Bay, Tyler Perry, Adam Sandler, etc.

Identity Thief was more of a solo than Spy lol. Jason Bateman is not a draw. Put him in a film by himself and it will do $20-30 million. McCarthy at least guarantees $75 million at this point. I'd say Identity Thief was her first $100 million solo. Spy is an ensemble, and Heat had Bullock It is a cash grab, though... and regardless of how much you hate Pixar, you can't deny that they're objectively far more ambitious than Illumination. Even if the film falls flat, they put a lot more effort into the storytelling aspect. Without DM, Illumination is really nothing. I would say the same about Pixar if Toy Story and Cars were the only things they ever did. Unlike Studio Ghibli, Aardman, Laika or WDAS and some DreamWorks (KFP, HTTYD) - not even bringing up Pixar, there's nothing remotely intelligent or ambitious about this spinoff. Based on early reviews, all of the jokes are in the trailer, and the ones they don't show fall flat on adults. This spinoff had absolutely nothing substantial to add to the DM universe... even Puss in Boots added a little something to Shrek's popular supporting character's backstory. Hence, why it's a cash grab. If it doesn't give the DM characters further development, it has no real thematic reason for existing. And the RT rating just confirms that. Yes, kids under the age of 7 will like it... but they'll like almost anything you put in front of them with something remotely funny. $110-130 million OW. I see this being the most frontloaded animated OW by a considerable margin. Don't you mean if Smurfs 2/Turbo/Planes had never been made? Because what comes before doesn't hurt a film as much as what comes after. Without those three, MU legs its way to $290-310 million DOM, DM2 possibly surpasses CF to win the year. Summer 2013 simply had way too many kids movies. Don't you mean $25 million? IO/Minions/Pixels/Ant-Man covers the family demo. And Underdogs opens the week after. Both animated releases will be lucky to combine to $50 million DOM Watch Shaun do Chicken Run unadjusted out of the blue... Umm... her name is plastered all over the trailers she'll be what brings in unsuspecting older adults who are expecting an intelligent animated film like IO or Shaun Without her, this would probably do $30-50 million less. She's one of the few draws left today.

I think Minions being mediocre and the heavy family competition for summer 2017 (GotG2, Star Wars Episode VIII, Toy Story 4) will hurt DM2. This will perform like DM3. while DM3 will perform like DM4. I'm thinking $280-300 million for DM3 unless Minions does $400-450 million DOM. Then $310-330 million DOM.

Shrek the Third was pretty frontloaded And yes, because there's only so high you can go for the weekend after $15-20 million previews. If Minions were to reach that amount, $200-220 million is the absolute highest it would go. Avengers/JW weren't frontloaded for that matter they played like kids/family films throughout their OWs. We've never had an animated film open to $125 million unadjusted, so we really have no clue how a $150 million+ animated OW would look like in terms of frontloading. Shrek the Third is the only one that comes close.

Shrek the Third. Both are the third installment in their franchise. Both have steep drop-offs in terms of critics. Both will have huge OWs ($120 million+ OW) Both will have a 2.6x (less than $400 million DOM)

If its previews are over $6.5-7 million, that suggests frontloading to me. With $8.7 million in previews, my guess would be $40.5 million Fri, $44 million Sat, $36.5 million Sun. So a $130 million OW. It would probably need $15-20 million in previews to reach $200 million+ this weekend.

All I was trying to say is that IO isn't locked for a 50%+ drop with $21 million from weekdays and the fact that it's drawing in older adults that wouldn't go see something like Minions. I'd say $15.5-16.5 million is the reasonable prediction, with $16.5-17.5 million the less reasonable, and $17.5-18.5 million a best case scenario for the weekend. Especially if Minions opens to $130-150 million. I do overpredict a lot but I've actually gotten most of the big films right this year. American Sniper (kinda... I was thinking $200-220 million once everyone I knew on FB started posting 'I'm going to see that' a week or so before OW) Kingsman SpongeBob 2 Furious 7 ($325-350 million when everyone thought I was bonkers for thinking $300 million+ DOM) Pitch Perfect 2 ($170-200 million is the range I was thinking) Jurassic World (I predicted $425 million 3-4 weeks before OW. I knew it'd be a big crowdpleaser... but even $650 million was beyond my wildest dreams ) Inside Out ($350-370 million has been my predict for the last couple of months... especially after the Cannes buzz) I was way off on 50 Shades and Avengers 2, but my bullish predictions have either been equaled, slightly surpassed, or completely blown to smithereens for the most part, lol.

$212.3 million

Agreed. Cut PP2's gross for that weekend in half and you've got JW's actual OW. So $212 million.

No Minions is opening to $110-130 million. In mid-summer, that's not enough to bring everything to its knees. Especially after a deflated July 4th frame and Ted 2/Terminator disappointing big-time. But your Friday increase is clearly influenced by your love for Minions, because there's no way IO's Friday is below its Wednesday. So at least $5 million for Fri... I reckon $5.2-5.4 million, so a 25-30% Fri increase. Pretty reasonable, considering last Friday was inflated and Minions will hurt it. Your Saturday jump is awful considering IO's previous Sat jumps, Minions' frontloadedness towards Thurs/Fri, and how awful your IO Friday jump predict is. Only 20%? More like 30-35%. So $6.6-7 million Sat. Pretty reasonable, considering Minions will burn up a lot of upfront demand on OD, and last Sat was extremely deflated. Figure a regular 20% Sun drop... $5.2-5.5 million Sun. $17-17.9 milion for the weekend, with relatively average projections. I'm not expecting something ridiculous like a 65% Fri increase, 45% Sat increase and 5% Sun drop. $16-18 million is the range for IO, due to older adults simply not caring about Minions its great WOM, and the fact that the BO is relatively dead beyond Minions. Also, the $21 million weekdays makes $14 million for the weekend seem a little ridiculous. Even with Minions hurting it, it shouldn't only do 65% of its weekdays over the weekend.

Star Wars Episode VII sGould at least do close to TDK unadjusted with zero major competition

I don't even have to see Minions to know the following animated films are better than it Inside Out Princess Kaguya Song of the Sea LEGO Movie HTTYD 1/2 BH6 Frozen Monsters University The Wind Rises Ernest and Celestine When Marine Was There Up There on Poppy Hill DM1/2 Rango Arthur Christmas The Pirates! Band of Misfits The Secret World of Arriety Para Norman Wreck it Ralph Franken weenie Rise of the Guardians Kung Fu Panda 1/2 Toy Story 1-3 The Illusionist Mary and Max Tangled Ponyo Up Coraline Fantastic Mr. Fox Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs WALL-E Princess and the Frog The Secret of Kells Horton Hears a Who Ratatouille Surfs Up The Simpsons Movie Persepolis Monster House A Scanner Darkly Wallace and Gromit: Curse of the Were Rabbit Howls Moving Castle Corpse Bride The Incredibles Shrek 1-2 SpongeBob SquarePants Movie Finding Nemo Triplets of Belleview Ice Age Lilo and Stitch Spirited Away Waking Life Monsters Inc Chicken Run ...that's just the 21st century. I can think of another 40-50 from the 20th. Minions is just a silly adventure. Nothing phenomenal. It looks completely vanilla to me just from the trailers

Shrek the Third had a 2.6x

$17.5 million is fine. It would put IO on pace for $350-370 million DOM

One person isn't a standard for whether something is four-quadrant. I can tell you right now the vast majority of adults over the age of 25 would only go see Minions if they had a kid with them. Minions is predominantly under 25. It's going to draw older adults out like JW/IO due to how childish/immature it is. While Inside Out is more 50-50 in adult/kid appeal Sherlock Holmes 2 did $185 million so it wasn't really four quad if your dad had gone to see Sniper, JW, IO, Avengers 1, Frozen and GotG, I might see your point. I do think Minions will do phenomenal, but not to the point of hurting IO completely.

$21 million weekdays $8.5 million weekend Seems legit

$350 million+ DOM is already a foregone conclusion IMO. After Minions, it's smooth sailing, unlike MU's late run in 2013. I'm thinking 10-30% drops until after Labor Day. with $20-21 million in weekdays, I don't see how IO does any less than $17-18 million for the weekend. Even if Minions hurts it, there won't be a massive drop over the weekend from its weekdays. That doesn't really happen during summer. I'm thinking $19-20 million now. Last weekend being deflated should help.

Why not July 15th, if IA5 moves to November? BFG is the week before, and Dory is two weeks before that. Pets should either stay there or move to 7/15 if IA5 moves.

Being the only tentpole for the fall should help. However, HT2/Goosebumps will take away some of the family demo. I think it has a better chance at $100 million DOM here than in June/July, though.