mahnamahna

it's the last major kid friendly film of the summer. It'll probably get to 75m-80m solely due to Shaun/Underdogs being it's only competition until late September

Southpaw is about to potentially do $20 million+ for the weekend, so there's another bright spot. Anything over $15 million is phenomenal considering it's a low-budget sports drama from the Weinsteins. I do agree that July 2015 is doing almost as bad as last year. Really the meh July 4th frame and Ted 2 underperforming did July 2015 in. Pixels and Paper Towns underperforming is just the death blow. If only BvS had stayed in July lol... Fall 2015 is going to be pretty big, and Nov/Dec should be on par with Holiday 2009/2012, so as long as August isn't an epic fail, 2015 will be alright in the long run.

Oh ok I thought those were projections. Still, I don't see how Southpaw only does $15 million for the weekend. Especially since it came out of nowhere and did similar preview #s to Pixels. Could be 2nd or 3rd for the weekend depending on Minions/Ant-Man holds. Maybe even 1st

$14-16 million from a $1.2 million preview number would be pretty frontloaded for an adult-skewing sports drama. I'd think $20-22 million would be a better range, but maybe Southpaw is just that frontloaded.

It's the only major comedy until October (American Ultra, go to your corner ), so it could open to $25-30 million and leg its way out. Nowhere near a lock, but I have a good feeling about its legs/WOM. Especially if F4 opens to $35 million, UNCLE opens to $15 million, and Compton opens to $20 million. That's my best case scenario predict though $110-140 million is my semi-realistic guess, especially since 2010 is the only year in the last decade without an R-rated comedy grossing at $150 million+ DOM. Plus, summer 2015 is due for one more crazy breakout. Vacation or Compton are the only two that fit the bill. Although Southpaw could do it if it gets a $30-35 million OW out of nowhere.

$2.3 million Fri (50-55% increase) $3.2 million Sat (40% increase) $2.4 million Sun (25% drop) $7.9 million weekend Both IO/JW should end up with $7 m+ for the weekend, especially if Pixels/Paper Towns underperform hard. Seeing both in the $7.5 to $8 million range would be excellent.

Jurassic World: $650 million Avengers 2: $455 million Inside Out: $360 million Minions: $345 million Mission Impossible 5: $190 million Pitch Perfect 2: $185 million Vacation: $175 million Ant-Man: $165 million San Andreas: $150 million Mad Max - Fury Road: $150 million Fantastic Four: $130 million Straight Outta Compton: $120 million Trainwreck: $115 million Spy: $110 million Southpaw: $105 million (with a $25-30 million OW) Pixels: $100 million Terminator Genysis: $95 million Tomorrowland: $90 million Ted 2: $80 million Magic Mike XXL: $70 million Definitely possible... of course, that's my best case scenario for the rest of the summer. MI5 and Ant-Man are locked for $100 million DOM, so they'll be 12th and 13th at best. 4 out of the 6 $100m contenders will have to make it in order for Tomorrowland/Terminator to miss the top 15. Compton F4 Pixels Southpaw (if it does $25-30 million this weekend) Trainwreck (depends on its holds the next two weekends) Vacation

With $2 million in previews, $6-6.5 million for the weekend would make Twilight's legs look like Greek Wedding 4th or 5th for Paper Towns

It would have probably won the weekend with 27-28m It could have stayed on June 26th, too. It'll do $25-30m OW no matter where it opens tbh If it stayed in July, and Jungle Book/Vacation stayed in October, fall 2015 would have had a great chance at breaking fall 2003's attendance record

Until Vacation does $60m 5 day and MI5 does $75m OW Yeah late July kinda died off. Ant-Man and Trainwreck performed as expected. Minions hasnt had amazing holds, Pixels/Paper Towns potentially missing 25m. Finding Dory, BvS and even Pan were sorely missed this summer.. At least Sep-Dec 2015 is looking huge (for that time of year)

I had JW at $425-450m a few weeks before release. I adjusted my predict after hearing it was tracking at $130m OW, and after Tomorrowland/Avengers 2 disappointed, I figured June would be prime territory for JW to break out. I may not have said it in a club, but I did adjust my expectations in late May. I was off by $200m+ but it's not true that no one thought more than $375m. Then again, I'm ridiculously bullish lol

It looks as silly/light-hearted as Minions, SpongeBob 2, Peanuts and Home, and doesn't appear to have a tearjerker moment like IO does. The Little Prince and When Marnie Was There are pretentious, but an animated comedy in 2,000 or so theaters? It will only do $20-30m DOM but it doesn't look like it's trying to emulate Bergman or Godard Shaun is just a cute little kids movie that won't make a lot of money in the US If you were joking, sorry haha

Worse than Mortdecai and Hot Tub Time Machine 2??

If anything, they should have MJ come back in a supporting role. Bringing MJ back would bring in some of the 90s/early 00s kids, while LeBron will bring in the kids of today. If it's well-marketed and gets a good release date, this could do $150 million+ DOM.

Ricki, The Walk, that Seth Rogen X-Mas movie or Goosebumps could surprise and do $90-100 million DOM. Which would be enough to pass Pixels if it opens to $20-25 million.

No. Paper Towns is pre-teen/teen girls Pixels is families and older adults nostalgic for video games One stereotypically rushes out for previews/OD, while the other generally is backloaded. $1.8 million for Pixels and $3.3 million for Paper Towns would still mean roughly the same OW since families can't really go on a Thursday night, even during the summer.

John Green movies are going to be far more front-loaded than family comedies starring Adam Sandler. His fanbase is rabid, while Sandler fans/families are more relaxed about waiting. I think Pixels will finish on top for the weekend, but Paper Towns will do remarkably well in previews, then falter through the rest of the weekend.

My guess for Thurs Minions: 5.0 Ant-Man: 4.7 Paper Towns: 3.3 (previews) Trainwreck: 3.1 Pixels: 1.8 (previews) IO: 1.45 JW: 1.2

I didn't say $65-70 million OW was my predict I just compared it to 8 Mile's OW adjusted , and said that's really the absolute best it can do OW. I know anything over $20 million is a great result for this. I'm thinking $40-45 million OW personally. Maybe $30-35 million if F4 or UNCLE break out somehow. I wouldn't be shocked or upset by $18 million, but I also wouldn't be super-surprised by $58 million, either.

Punch Drunk Love is pretty solid, too. Hotel Transylvania, Spanglish, Funny People and Reign Over Me are also decent enough to not deserve any real hate. They're not fantastic, but definitely not awful. Everything else of his is either a guilty pleasure or absolute garbage, minus Wedding Singer. If they swapped James for Michael Keaton, Sandler for Pratt/Tatum (son of the President, rather than best friend), and Monahagan for really any A-list actress (Chastain, Blunt, Watson, Stone, J-Law, etc) ... and gotten someone other than the Happy Madison crew to produce, it could have been the crowdpleasing sleeper hit of the summer. Sony's bad casting and foolish decision to get Happy Madison involved will cost them. Especially since this is their only big film this summer

$100 million+ OW? The best I think Compton can do OW is 8 Mile's OW adjusted. So $65-70 million OW is best case scenario for this IMO. Maybe $75-80 million since Universal's had a great year so far and 2015 has been host to multiple insane breakouts $100 million+ OW would just be ridiculous, though... Even with a 2.3x-2.4x, that would be at least $230-240 million DOM finish! I'd love to see that happen, though, because August looks like it'll be quite sleepy without a breakout.

a 52% drop isn't too bad for a CBM. If Pixels really does $20-25 mlilion, I could see 46-48%.

I just don't think it'll be as front-loaded as some are expecting. Especially with it being the last compelling film for a good month until Black Mass/MR2/Everest. $50 million OW with a 3x-3.5x. Maybe 2x-2.5x if it doesn't get decent reviews. I do think it'll fly past $100 million DOM either way. And my 3rd weekend and Labor Day drops definitely aren't ridiculous. I do agree that 2nd weekend is more like 55-60%, but 40-45% in the 3rd and 10-15% over Labor Day is definitely reasonable. F4 should open to $40 million... assuming a CBM typical 50-55% 2nd weekend drop... by the third weekend of August, F4 will barely be above $10 million. Rogue Nation is also tracking at $40 million, so by the 3rd weekend of August, it should pretty much be sub-$10 million. Pixels' kid appeal gives it the best chance at staying power until Labor Day. I wouldn't be shocked by a $30-35 million OW on its way to a 4x-4.5x.

For this weekend, I'm thinking Pixels: $38 million (enough kids will get it $30m+ I think) Paper Towns: $34 million Ant-Man: $27 million ($110 million) Minions: $25 million ($264 million) Trainwreck: $22 million ($65 million) Southpaw: $11 million Inside Out: $8.5 million ($321 million) Jurassic World: $8 million ($624 million) Terminator Genysis: $3 million ($86 million) Magic Mike XXL: $3 million ($64 million)

$25 million for this would be awful for Sony Spectre would be their only hope at not having a complete failure of a year.