mahnamahna

Pete's Dragon is August 12th, while Kubo is August 19th. So August is a no. September is a no, because of Storks/SPA TBA. Mid October could work, or possibly November 4th (especially with the Ice/Winter theme). Summer 2016 is just too crowded for Ice Age 5 to really have any sort of breathing room.

This is still happening? Pets/BFG should still the family demo pretty easily. Not to mention Dory still holding over. The sad thing is that you can't really move IA5 without encountering another family film (Pete's Dragon/Kubo make August a no, while Dory/BFG/Pets makes June to mid July meh) Should it move to July 22nd or 29th?

Or American Sniper doing $350 million Or Furious 7 doing $350 million (I did, though) Or Avengers just barely crossing $450 million Or Jurassic World doing $650 million+ (nobody did lol... nobody) Or Inside Out doing $350 million+ (after the Cannes buzz, I started thinking $350-370 million) 2015 is just a shocker... With how many people are thinking MBFGW2 is going to bomb hard, I'd love to see it completely shock everyone with Pitch Perfect 2 numbers ($180-190 million DOM) or even top the original unadjusted For the record, I'm not even a big fan. I just like to see utterly shocking BO stories.

2016 is really jam-packed. Easy to fix, though. NYSM2 to May 20th Cancel Uncharted Me Before You to June 24th Ice Age 5 to July 29th King Arthur/Kubo to August 26th

Nah, it would be funnier to see: IO - $395 million Minions - $390 million I actually think Minions won't affect IO's legs at all. If anything, sellouts should boost IO/JW. But those 3 will be 85-90% of the BO this weekend

For now. When the vast majority of Oscar voters are 1990-2010 kids, I think a serious, well-done animated film like Grave of the Fireflies could do it. But that's 25-35 years away. I wouldn't say 'never'. LOTR was the first fantasy film and that took less than 80 yrs. I'd definitely say an animated film will win BP in the next 100 years. Same goes for sci-fi... and foreign... and comedy (not the 'soft chuckle' Woody Allen variety, but the Will Ferrell/Seth Rogen/Monty Python/Mel Brooks kind). Think about how many films could have won BP if the majority of voters weren't elderly men. 2013: Gravity 2012: Life of Pi or Zero Dark Thirty 2010: Social Network or Inception 2009: Inglorious, D9 or Up 2008: WALL-E or TDK 2006: Borat 2005: Wallace and Gromit, Howl's Moving Castle (2005 was pretty awful... both of those deserved BP over Crash) 2004: Eternal Sunshine, Incredibles, Spider-Man 2, Fahrenheit 9/11, Mean Girls 2003: Finding Nemo, Kill Bill Vol. 1, Oldboy 2002: Minority Report, Rabbit-Proof Fence 2001: Shrek, Spirited Away, Mulholland Drive 2000: Amores Perros, Requiem for a Dream 1999: Fight Club, Toy Story 2, The Matrix All of which could have done far better at the Oscars if the voters weren't locked into a certain mentality (only competently-made conventional biopics, ritzy musicals, and 'comedies' that are really depressing deserve the big one).

$4 million previews would be closer to $80-90 million. Especially since Minions is an established franchise. Certainly it'll be at least as frontloaded as IO. $5.5-6.5 million are my guess for previews... But I do agree $10 million previews would mean $140 million+ OW. $10 million $52.5 million $58 million $47 million $167 million OW that's not going to happen with JW/IO still doing $18-20 million, and the other films adding up to $35-45 million.

DM2 with $4.7 million. Minions will be far more frontloaded, since there's no holiday period. $5 to 7 million is the range for its previews. It needs at least $3.5 million for an $80 million OW. That's the worst case scenario right now. $6.5 million $36.5 million $40 million $32 million $105-115 million would be my conservative predict.

$11.4 million Wed: $5.0 million ($16.4 million) Thurs: $4.8 million ($21.2 million) With $21.2 million in weekdays, even a Minions drop locks $17-18 million at this point. I'm personally thinking $19.5-20.5 million because I think IO will shock some people.

Is MJ2 doing less than $337 million being considering a legitimate possibility? MJ2 would have to be horrendous to miss $350 million IMO. 2015 is just a good year at the BO

Some loony holds.. especially with how weak you're predicting Minions to be. Those drops would only happen if Minions has a $160m+ weekend. July 4th deflated this last weekend. 20m+ for weekdays and only $11 million for the weekend? IO isn't going to tank that hard lol

That's a solid increase. Why the long face?

That's actually a solid finish. Ant-Man, Pixels, MI5 and F4 pretty much guarantee it won't have a chance to develop late legs, so $90-95 million DOM is really the best case scenario.

You also have to consider how dead the rest of the BO is. Terminator's set for $10-12 million. Ted 2/Magic Mike both looking at $5-7 million. Max/Spy looking at $3.5-4 million. Gallows and Self/Less looking to open sub-$10 million. Even with Minions doing $125 million, and IO/JW each doing $20 million, the entire BO should be $205-210 million at the highest. JW's OW had $260 million in business, so $205-215 million is reasonable for a behemoth like Minions. After a mediocre July 4th frame, I'd say there's definitely room for Minions sellouts to give JW/IO a slight boost even in the face of major competition. But I do agree that 38-42% is the likely range. 32-34% is possible, but that might require Minions underperforming slightly ($95-105 mlilion OW instead of $120-130 million OW) to be possible.

With how little family competition this summer has beyond Minions/Pixels, I'd say $350 million is already locked. IO has less competition than TS3 or MU had in their late runs (Last Airbender/DM1/Sorcerer's Apprentice/Cats & Dogs 2 for TS3, DM2/Turbo/Smurfs 2/Planes for MU). All Inside Out has until Sep 25 in terms of direct PG-rated competition is Shaun the Sheep/Underdogs. Both will be lucky to combine to $50 million DOM+ IMO so 3.6x-4.2x should happen from this weekend. Especially with Ant-Man double features coming up, and zero competition the weekend after Pixels. Not to mention the last 3 weeks of the summer BO are empty. I think Minions sellouts and the box office being relatively dead beyond IO/JW should help both. Minions, IO and JW should combine for $150 million+, but the rest of the BO will only do $40-50 million, at best. There's room for July to explode if GAs want to see this month's offerings. $18-21 million is the range. Anything more than $18 million is a victory for IO, though. I doubt the weekend would make that much less than the weekdays, even with Minions this weekend. And that 2% Friday increase would be horrible - 20 to 25% is much more likely. You really just presented a worst-case scenario from $20.2 million weekdays. $18 million is the lowest I see IO going this weekend, since it'll either be just under its weekdays, equal them or be just over. So $18-21 million is the range for this weekend IMO. $14-16 million would be horrendous considering how IO has proven to be a weekend film, also. Not to mention its weekdays shouldn't be that much bigger than its weekend, even during summer. $4.5 million Thurs $5.7 million Fri $7.3 million Sat $5.9 million Sun $18.9 million 4th weekend (36% drop) Considering how deflated last weekend was, and the fact that other than Minions, the BO is relatively dead other than JW. Magic Mike, Ted and Terminator are all doing mediocre - so I really think there's more than enough room for Minions, JW and IO to combine for $160-180 million, while the rest of the top 10 completely tanks.

Minions: $130.5 million Inside Out: $21 million ($286 million) Jurassic World: $19 million ($591 million) Terminator Genysis: $13 million ($67 million) The Gallows: $9 million Ted 2: $7 million ($71 million) Magic Mike XXL: $6.5 million ($39 million) Self/Less: $5 million Max: $4.5 million ($33 million) Spy: $4 million ($105 million) 7/17-19 Ant-Man: $72 million Minions: $62 million ($252 million) Trainwreck: $28 million Inside Out: $16.5 million ($317 million) Jurassic World: $12 million ($613 million) Terminator Genysis: $6 million ($78 million) The Gallows: $3.5 million ($15 million) Ted 2: $3 million ($76 million) Max: $3 million ($39 million) Spy: $2.5 million ($109 million) 7/24-26 Pixels: $57 million Ant-Man: $29.5 million ($131 million) Minions: $28 million ($307 million) Paper Towns: $23 million Trainwreck: $19 million ($65 million) Inside Out: $12 million ($340 million) Jurassic World: $7.5 million ($626 million) Southpaw: $6 million Terminator Genysis: $3 million ($83 million) The Gallows: $2 million ($19 million) 7/31-8/2 Mission Impossible 5: $64 million Pixels: $33 million ($121 million) Vacation: $30.5 million ($45 million) Minions: $17 million ($340 million) Paper Towns: $14 million ($50 million) Ant-Man: $13 million ($156 million) Inside Out: $10 million ($359 million) Trainwreck: $9 million ($83 million) Jurassic World: $4.5 million ($634 million) Southpaw: $3.5 million ($12 million) 8/7-9 Fantastic Four: $38 million Mission Impossible 5: $33 million ($128 million) Pixels: $21 million ($159 million) Vacation: $20 million ($82 million) Ricki and the Flash: $18 million Minions: $10.5 million ($358 million) Paper Towns: $8 million ($64 million) Inside Out: $7 million ($371 million) Ant-Man: $6 million ($167 million) Trainwreck: $5.5 million ($93 million) 8/14-16 Straight Outta Compton: $60.5 million Fantastic Four: $20.5 million ($74 million) Mission Impossible 5: $17 million ($158 million) Pixels: $14 million ($182 million) Vacation: $13.5 million ($105 million) The Man From UNCLE: $12 million Ricki and the Flash: $11 million ($38 million) Underdogs: $7 million Minions: $5.5 million ($366 million) Inside Out: $5 million ($379 million) 8/21-23 Straight Outta Compton: $28 million ($102 million) Masterminds: $21 million ($30 million) Fantastic Four: $12 million ($92 million) Sinister 2: $11 million Mission Impossible 5: $10 million ($173 million) Pixels: $9 million ($195 million) Vacation: $8 million ($117 million) Hitman - Agent 47: $7 million Ricki and the Flash: $6.5 million ($48 million) The Man From UNCLE: $5 million ($20 million) American Ultra: $4.5 million Inside Out: $4 million ($384 million) Underdogs: $3.5 million ($12 million) 8/28-30 We Are Your Friends: $22 million Straight Outta Compton: $18 million ($129 million) Masterminds: $14 million ($51 million) Regression: $9 million Fantastic Four: $8 million ($104 million) Pixels: $7 million ($204 million) Mission Impossible 5: $6 million ($182 million) Vacation: $5.5 million ($125 million) Ricki and the Flash: $5 million ($55 million) Sinister 2: $4 million ($17 million) Inside Out: $3.5 million ($388 million) Hitman - Agent 47: $3 million ($11 million) 9/4-7 Straight Outta Compton: $14.5 million/$19 million ($155 million) We Are Your Friends: $12.5 million/$16 million ($44 million) Masterminds: $11 million/$13.5 million ($70 million) Jane Got a Gun: $8.5 million/$10.5 million Pixels: $7.5 million/$9.5 million ($215 million) Fantastic Four: $6.5 million/$8 million ($115 million) Mission Impossible 5: $5.5 million/$7 million ($191 million) Regression: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($17 million) Inside Out: $4.5 million/$6 million ($395 million) Vacation: $4 million/$5 million ($132 million) Ricki and the Flash: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($61 million) No Escape: $3 million/$3.5 million ($5.5 million)

20.2 weekdays... can't see how it would miss $20 million weekend at that point... maybe $19 million? Either way, those weekday holds should help it despite Minions' OW.

$18-20 million is my guess. So $280-285 million is the range for July 12th. MU was far more kiddie than IO, and it had Turbo/Smurfs 2/Planes after DM2 to wreck its late legs. Plus, as you said, Lone Ranger releasing that week didn't help either. Still thinking $350-370 million for IO... the next two weekends' holds will determine where it ends up.

IO 4.9 5.7 4.4 4.0 $19 million in weekdays 6 8 6 $20 million for the weekend

I don't even think Tarantino is a maybe. Everything he's done since Pulp Fiction pales in comparison to that, except Kill Bill Vol. 1. Hateful Eight will essentially be Basterds and Django put together into one movie, with a hint of Magnifcent Seven. Pete Docter, J.J. Abrams and George Miller are the only two directors in the race that would grab my attention on Oscar night. Maybe Ridley Scott if The Martian ends up being phenomenal.

As the Academy gets younger, the closer we'll get to an animated film or a sci-fi or a straight horror or a broad comedy winning Best Picture... bring them on!

With a $150 million OW, a 2.5x-2.7x is happening, especially with Ant-Man and Pixels nipping at some of the family demo and the meh reception so far. $375 million-$405 million is nothing to snuff at, though. Especially since this would be a spinoff becoming the highest grossing of its franchise

Ice Age 3 jumped 16.5% on Sunday - 3.8% more than IO. Anything less than 20% isn't an 'aggressive' jump tbh. But JW will still win the weekend

IO 12.5 9.5 12 34 JW 11.8 10 13 34.8

I'm not going to lie... if Fury Road, Force Awakens, Martian, Inside Out and The Walk were the films nominated for Best Director, I might actually bother to care about the Oscars this year Realistically: Tarantino Inarritu Spielberg Hooper Zemeckis/Scott/O'Russell