mahnamahna

You mean bland, merely 'decent' Oscar bait like Imitation Game/Theory of Everything, right? Because if so, I agree. GotG and LEGO were far more Oscar-worthy than either of those, or American Sniper (to show that I'm against bland blockbusters getting nods). The 4 you mentioned are inventive enough to where they definitely deserve their nominations, though. However, if Nightcrawler or Princess Kaguya had been nominated in place of Imitation Game/Theory, I wouldn't be upset. Just because something didn't make a ton of money doesn't make it bad. The same goes for blockbusters. It's not great Oscar bait getting nominated that upsets people. It's when by-the-numbers Oscar bait beats a more blockbustery, but brilliantly made film (American Beauty beating Toy Story 2/Matrix, Chariots of Fire beating Raiders, King's Speech beating TS3/Inception, Shakespeare beating SPR, Slumdog beating WALL-E/TDK, etc). But it also works in reverse (Gladiator beating Requiem/Amores Perros, Titanic beating L.A. Confidential/Ice Storm/Funny Games, Forrest Gump beating Pulp Fiction/Shawshank, Dances With Wolves beating Goodfellas, Rocky beating Network/Taxi Driver/All the President's Men, etc)

^this. After having much better Friday increases than IA3/TF2, I don't see why anyone would use either of those or 2009 in general to compare 2015 to. The BO landscape is so much different than it was back then, and July 4th is generally unpredictable. Ice Age 3 and Transformers 2 didn't come close to having the WOM that JW/IO currently have. $32-33 million for each and they're both set for solid holds next weekend despite Minions.

Considering JW/IO have held better than their 2009 comparisons the last few weekends, I wouldn't be shocked if they only drop 20-25% on Sat, and have 25-30% increases on Sunday... both have held insanely well. Wouldn't be surprised if JW/IO both do $30-32 million, and go on to have 30-40% drops in the wake of the Minions sellouts. $650-675 million for JW, $350-375 million for IO.

Waterboy and Big Daddy - $260 to 265 million (adjusted for inflation) Chris Columbus (all adjusted for inflation) Home Alone 1 - $550 million Harry Potter 1 - $450 million Mrs. Doubtfire - $425 million Harry Potter 2 - $365 million Home Alone 2 - $340 million NATM 1 - $295-300 million (producer) NATM 2 - $190-195 million (producer) Stepmom - $150 million Nine Months - $130 million Sandler has never done a film with Chris Columbus, who has a little-known Midas touch when it comes to family-friendly tentpoles. Ant-Man has F4 and MI5 directly targeting its demo, while Pixels has the kid-friendly demo mostly to itself. And unlike Ant-Man, no one is expecting anything from it, so it has a far better chance of breaking out. Best-case scenario for July 2015 Minions - $375 million Pixels - $250 million Ant-Man - $235 million Mission Impossible 5 - $215 million Trainwreck/Vacation (one of the two) - $145 million July 2015 is looking to have an epic top 5, with 6-8 also looking solid (Trainwreck/Vacation, Terminator, Paper Towns) enough. MMXXL okay at 9 ($55-65 million DOM)

Pokemon Fullmetal Alchemist Attack on Titan

7/10-12 Minions: $127 million JW: $20.5 million ($592 million) IO: $19 million ($282 million) TG: $16 million ($71 million) Gallows: $9.5 million MMXXL: $8.5 million ($45 million) Ted 2: $6.5 million ($68 million) Max: $4.5 million ($32 million) Spy: $3 million ($103 million) SA: $1.5 million ($149 million)

TS3 didn't make $150 million+ after its 3rd weekend. Either way, I agree that IO isn't doomed. It'll drop 40-45% this week, and 35-40% next due to Minions spillover. Then 10-30% drops until its inevitable Labor Day boost

But JW/IO have clearly shown they don't follow any sort of BO template

This^. Let the original Pixar take summer 2017 and the sure-fire hit (Incredibles 2) take November 2017. Would love to see Inside Out be what started Pixar's return to greatness (GD, Dory, the next original Pixar, and Incredibles 2 all have great potential)

If summer 2015 had this schedule May 1 - Avengers 2 8 - Fury Road (Avengers 2's underperformance left room for an adult-skewing tentpole) 15 - Pitch Perfect 2, Poltergeist 22 - San Andreas (would have gotten to $175-200 million DOM if not for its release date), Spy (better launch date) 29 - Inside Out, Aloha June 5 - Insidious Chapter 3, Entourage 12 - Jurassic World, Dope 19 - Ted 2, Paper Towns, Max 26 - Ricki and the Flash, UNCLE July 3 - Magic Mike XXL, Minions 10 - Terminator, Trainwreck 17 - Ant-Man, Self/Less 24 - Pixels, Gallows 31 - MI5, Vacation, Shaun the Sheep August 7 - Fantastic Four, Compton 14 - Masterminds, Pan, Sinister 2 21 - Underdogs, American Ultra, Maze Runner 2 28 - Hitman, Regression, We Are Your Friends The BO may not be perfect (August will still have the pre-Labor Day weekend of meh, Terminator will bomb still), but late May/early June wouldn't have been a complete bust, and August would actually have a shot at doing decent numbers.

Exactly.. if Ted 2 had been as good as 22JS, it would have done $50 million OW+. Likewise, if Terminator had been Fury Road quality, a $65-75 million 5 day would happen, especially since JW has now slowed down. I do think either Trainwreck or Vacation will explode at the BO, though. Spy didn't do blockbuster numbers ($110-120 million DOM), while Ted 2 is looking at $80-90 million DOM. PP2 and Pixels are PG-13. Entourage was niche. That and the solid buzz for Trainwreck/Vacation makes me think one of the two will break-out as this year's comedy hit. My actual predicts for July 2015 are closer to: Minions - $350 million Pixels - $240 million MI5 - $210 million Ant-Man - $190 million Vacation - $140 million Trainwreck - $105 million Terminator - $85 million MMXXL - $75 million Paper Towns - $70 million Southpaw - $25 million Gallows - $20 million Self/Less - $15 million I'm probably way too high on Pixels but it's the only tentpole for the rest of the summer that would be a JW/IO sized surprise if it broke out at the BO. And I think the lack of major family-friendly films in August/early-mid September will help Pixels out, more than Ant-Man/MI5

Pixels waits in the corner for the opportune moment to sucker-punch the BO.... I honestly think that the last true BO event for this summer will be something no one sees coming. Minions, Ant-Man and MI5 have plenty thinking $200 million+ DOM, so they're out. Pixels, one of the two July R-rated comedies or Compton should shock some people, though (1 of the 3 - not all 3) To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked if Pixels ends up topping Ant-Man/MI5... it's the last film with family appeal this summer, Adam Sandler is a draw still in the right project, Chris Columbus has the Midas touch with family-friendly tentpoles in terms of BO (HP 1-2, Home Alone 1-2, NATM 1-2, Mrs. Doubtfire all adjust to $200 million+ DOM with 3D and regular inflation), and similar to JW/IO, no one is expecting much from it. Of course Trainwreck or Vacation or Compton doing $175 million+ DOM would be an even bigger shock IMO, since at least Pixels is a tentpole.

Terminator and Ted 2 underperforming is a combo of looking mediocre... and audiences preparing for July 2015's lineup. Minions - $275 million+ DOM Ant-Man - $150 million+ DOM Trainwreck - $75 million+ DOM Pixels - $125 million+ DOM Paper Towns - $60 million+ DOM Mission Impossible 5 - $175 million+ DOM Vacation - $75 million+ DOM Each week is looking to have a solid hit. And I'm really low-balling all of those except possibly Paper Towns. IO - $33 million JW - $31 million They'll do decent enough to keep this weekend afloat. Although XXL has already pretty much made its money back.

That would be absolutely awful for IO/JW. Not even a 25% Friday increase when a 30%+ Sat drop is coming? Realistically: IO - $11.7 million (55% Fri increase like Up) JW - $11 million (typical 60% Fri increase like it's done its whole run) TG - $9.3 million (50% Fri increase) MM - $8 million (40% Fri increase) IO doing $9.5 million Fri would mean: $6.5 million Sat $9.5 million Sun $25.5 million 3rd weekend - no way it drops over 50% this weekend with zero competition. 38-42% makes more sense.

Or it'll be a JW/IO situation where sellouts from Minions benefits IO, and Minions trailers being attached to almost every showing of IO benefits it. Minions has ZERO competition for the rest of the summer (unless Shaun and Underdogs are something...). DM2 had Turbo, Smurfs 2 and Planes - all far more major than the two for August 2015. 2015's been crazy. I think both could still do $350 million+ DOM, but if Minions doesn't have a large enough OW ($85-90 million, instead of $110-130 million), I think IO will end up outgrossing it by a large margin.

Just like IO wasn't going to make more than Minions DOM (very possible at this point)? Or JW wasn't going to make more than Avengers 2? Or Furious 7 wasn't going to top $300 million DOM? Or American Sniper doing more than $100-120 million DOM for its entire run? 2015 has completely defied expectations multiple times already. If there's any year that an Adam Sandler action comedy involving retro arcade games could gross more domestically/internationally than the latest Marvel tentpole, it's 2015.

This club.. Ted 2 and Terminator looked stupid. That's the only reason they're disappointing so bad. Summer 2013 showed there's room for multiple files to do well at the same time MI5, Pixels, Compton, Vacation and Trainwreck will at least play to expectations. I'm expecting a few of those to exceed expectations

IO is,on pace for $350 million+ DOM Minions needs $120-130 million OW to ensure it beats IO

Ice Age 3 destroyed Up's legs, though. IO should hold better since Terminator/Magic Mike aren't remotely targeting its demographic.

I was just saying it's possible. I fully expect $110-130 million OW but because of how adult-skewing Inside Out is, I don't think Minions will cause it to completely collapse. 55-60% drop isn't happening with this kind of WOM. Especially if it drops 25-30% this weekend. 45-50% is more likely. I think both can co-exist quite easily. Especially since the animated film market isn't too crowded this summer 2013: DM2 - $370 million MU - $270 million Epic - $110 million Planes - $90 million Turbo - $80 million Smurfs 2 - $70 million 2015 Minions - $450 million IO - $375 million Underdogs - $35 million Shaun - $20 million $875 million vs. $990 million. So even if both do $350 million+ DOM, the animated film lineup will be $115 million+ behind summer 2013.

If Good Dinosaur truly is Pixar's equivalent of a John Ford film, I think it'll get similar acclaim as IO. The lack of family competition other than SW7, Peanuts' tailend run and..... Alvin 4? should get it to $240-270 million. $220-240 million if it doesn't sit that well with GAs.

$339 million might happen? Even if it does drop 50-52% against Minions, I see it doing $340 million at the very least. My prediction is much higher, though. I'm expecting 10-30% drops from July 17 to August 28, then a 10-30% Labor Day boost. Plus, it looks set to do $34-37 million this weekend, which would put it well above $250 million DOM by July 9 From $36 million ($252 million) $17 million ($285 million) - Minions $14 million ($312 million) - Ant-Man double features $10 million ($330 million) - Pixels will hurt slightly $8.5 million ($346 million) - no competition $6.5 million ($357 million) - only Shaun $4.5 million ($364 million) - only Underdogs $3.5 million ($369 million) - nothing $2.5 million ($372 million) - nothing $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($378 million) - Labor Day boost $383-387 million DOM Of course, IO might defy my $36 million predict for this weekend and do $39-41 million. And have a crazy 40-42% hold against Minions.

Two factors to consider: As Baumer has pointed out, 2009's post July 4th weekend all had sub-50% holds. Even though Bruno was the only competitor, Terminator/MMXXL won't exactly crowd the marketplace, while JW is on the tail end of its phenomenal run. Inside Out/Pixar have far more adult appeal than Minions/Illumination. It's clear that Minions is a fluffy comedy for little kids, while Inside Out is leaving adults in tears. Similar to how Spy and Ted 2 managed to co-exist despite both being R-rated comedies, I could see IO dropping 40-45% against Minions and then having 10-30% drops until Labor Day. IO also has better WOM than Monsters U, so it shouldn't drop 56+% against Minions. Especially if it opens to $80-90 million, instead of the $120-140 million many are expecting. If it holds 25-30% this weekend, and does 40-45% against Minions (48-52% much more likely), then it'll make a run for $400 million DOM. Either way, two animated films are going to do $300 million+ DOM, after a year where none made it to $260 million DOM. Good Dinosaur could still do it, too! Especially if Peanuts ends up disappointing.

Yes. And if Good Dinosaur is Pixar's ode to John Ford like Jim Hill and a few others have hinted from a preview, it might make a run for BP, too. I'd love to see one of the two Pixar films nominated for BP (maybe both if the Oscar bait is just that bad this year...) Unlike Fury Road, Pixar is very Academy friendly, so any critically acclaimed film of theirs has a shot at Oscar gold (not so much BP, but Score, Song, Sound Mixing/Editing, Screenplay, BAF and possibly Art Design for Good Dinosaur due to the photorealistic backgrounds all seem possible.

Intern is the only film with female appeal in a sea of kid/male centric releases. $40-60 million should happen based on a lack of competition