mahnamahna

So you think MI5 is going to do better than Minions? How can you think Minions will do $220 million DOM, when you're predicting MI5 to do $250-270 million DOM? It's blatantly obvious Minions has more anticipation among the average Joe than MI5. I just don't feel the hype for MI5 that I feel with Pixels or Minions (among average Joes). I think all 3 will do very well, but MI5 would have to be Skyfall-level quality in order to do $250 million+ DOM. F4 should do decent enough... but you have to remember that it's grittier/darker than TMNT, so the family demo likely won't show up in droves. I'd like to see F4 do $175 million, but unless it's a good movie (with how troubled its production has been I doubt it), I don't see more than $130-140 million DOM. I'd love to see Ant-Man and F4 both do really well, though

You think MI5 is doing $330 million DOM? I'm thinking $190-230 million DOM. Unlike TMNT, F4 isn't looking all that kid-friendly and seems pretty grim/depressing. Pixels is the TMNT this year - a panned tentpole that 'surprises' all of the fanboys by its solid BO performance. I wouldn't be shocked at Ant-Man doing $140 million, but F4 isn't screaming breakout to me. Remember - summer 2014 was void of tentpoles in the second half of the summer. Transformers 4 and Apes 2 was it lol, from early June to GotG. Summer 2015 has plenty of tentpoles throughout, so F4 has its work cut out for it.

Not when Pixels, Ant-Man, MI5, Terminator and JW have all kept tentpole audiences well-satisfied the whole summer... could be $1.5 billion DOM between these 5. Not to mention Minions/IO satisfying families... another $700 million+ DOM. And Trainwreck/Vacation taking away adults... another $200 million+ DOM. Man From UNCLE the week after won't help it in its 2nd weekend, either. But I agree that a lack of competition after August 14th should help F4 hold up decent enough. However, it's going to suffer from tentpole fatigue as the last big release of the summer. I do think Ant-Man will do sub-$200 million DOM, but more $160-180 mlilion DOM. F4 $45 million OW $130 million DOM Solid enough, considering just how bad the first two FFs were. I could see TMNT numbers if Ant-Man and MI5 disappoint, though. August is the month when adult-oriented films do well. Which is why I'm much bigger on Compton than I am on F4.

Then Terminator does $80-85 million for its 5 day , Minions does $135-140 million OW, Ant-Man does $85-90 million OW, Pixels does $60-65 million OW, and MI5 does $75 million OW. Then Fantastic Four comes in to be a buzzkill. The whole month of July is looking to be gigantic. And I didn't even include the mid-level releases (XXL, Trainwreck, Paper Towns, Vacation), or the June holdovers (JW, IO, Ted 2)

Would be amazing if the top 3 does $200 million+ again.

Father's Day and parents having jobs. Ratatouille and WALL-E had their first Mondays during July 4th week, so they're not accurate comps. Cars 2 had horrid WOM but also didn't open over FD. Cars 1 is so long ago that I wouldn't consider it an accurate comp either. Plus, it opened a week before IO, so summer weekdays weren't in full effect yet. TS3 is the best comparison. And I would say it held better than IO on its first Monday because of its immediate teen/adult appeal and slightly more weekend spillover. IO is something a lot of adults weren't actively seeking out and are just hearing about from other adults who went to see it with their kids. IO at the very least isn't going to be frontloaded. 3.75x at the least (TS3 level) to 5x (roughly Finding Nemo) at the maximum

I think this backs up the idea that this isn't a frontloaded, typical Pixar release. Sellouts from this weekend will help it from now until Minions. If it's holding better than every other June Pixar release by a large margin (MU had the same Discount Tuesday boost as IO), I don't see how it misses a 4x. Especially if it holds better than expected this weekend ($55-60 million 2nd weekend, with a 25% drop over the July 4th frame). Even with Minions hitting, I think IO should hold well the rest of the summer. It'll have enough WOM among adults to hold until August IMO.

Ted 2 should hurt it a little. Maybe 40-45% if it's another crazy weekend for sellouts. I think it'll stabilize over July 4th and Minions' OW. Then plummet when Trainwreck comes out. It'll get past $100 million DOM

To be fair, Inside Out also had more sellouts than Ratatouille, WALL-E, Cars 1/2, or Brave. And unlike JW, 40% of IO's audience is kids who can't drive themselves to the theater. This month has shown it doesn't follow BO standards, either. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume IO might get more of a boost from weekend spillover and no new competition, whereas Ted 2 is from the same studio as JW and has more appeal with adults/teens than IO. Either way, I'm thinking $70 million for Ted 2, $60 million for JW, and $55 million for IO. Another $200 million+ weekend - nothing to complain about on these forums other than "JW is going to miss Avatar!!!" I'm a bullish predictor, but those are some HORRIBLE Christmas/New Year's Legs. Only $75-85 million after a $53 million 3rd weekend... really bad lol. Especially since it has no major competition until Jan 29/Feb 12. If SW7 actually does $200-220 million OW ($150-170 million more likely), it's not going to have a 50-60% drop its next weekend even with frontloading. More like 40-45%, and then 25-30% over New Year's. With $220 million OW, $120 million 2nd weekend (with $100 million weekdays), and $85 million 3rd weekend (with $90 million weekdays) - SW7 is at $615 million. $40 million 4th weekend ($679 million) $28 million/$36 million 5th weekend ($729 million) $17 million 6th weekend ($751 million) $11 million 7th weekend ($768 million) $6 million 8th weekend ($777 million) $2.5 million/$3.5 million 9th weekend ($781 million) $790 million-795 mlilion DOM finish Sorry but I just don't see $220 million OW when Christmas is the week after, and Heart of the Sea is the weekend before (likely to do $25-35 million OW). Expect $150-160 million OW with a 4.5x-5x multi than a $200-220 million OW with a 3x. That time of year is leggy. As long as SW7 is a stellar continuation of the franchise rather than dull like the new Hobbit trilogy, it'll have legs.

6/26-6/28 Ted 2: $73 million Jurassic World: $57 million ($509 million) Inside Out: $56 million ($191 million) Max: $10.5 million San Andreas: $6.5 million ($145 million) Spy: $6 million ($87 million) Dope: $5 million ($15 million) Insidious Chapter 3: $2.5 million ($50 million) Pitch Perfect 2: $2.5 million ($182 million) Mad Max - Fury Road: $2 million ($148 million) $220 million for the top 10... a little bullish, but I think a $200 million+ weekend is happening again. July 4th and Minions should keep that streak going until at least July 17th. 7/3-7/5 ($215 million) Terminator Genysis: $52 million ($80 million) Inside Out: $42 million ($276 million) Jurassic World: $38.5 million ($586 million) Ted 2: $32 million ($137 million) Magic Mike XXL: $25 million ($42 million) Max: $8 million ($27 million) Spy: $4 million ($95 million) Dope: $4 million ($23 million) San Andreas: $3.5 million ($152 million) Insidious Chapter 3: $1.5 million ($53 million) 7/10-12 ($235 million) Minions: $127 million Jurassic World: $24 million ($634 million) Terminator Genysis: $23 million ($127 million) Inside Out: $20 million ($316 million) Ted 2: $16 million ($173 million) Magic Mike XXL: $9 million ($60 million) The Gallows: $7 million Self/Less: $4.5 million Max: $4 million ($35 million) Spy: $3 million ($101 million) 7/17-19 ($210 million) Ant-Man: $67 million Minions: $64 million ($255 million) Trainwreck: $29 million Inside Out: $13 million ($342 million) Terminator Genysis: $10.5 million ($148 million) Jurassic World: $10 million ($654 million) Ted 2: $6.5 million ($186 million) Magic Mike XXL: $3.5 million ($67 million) Max: $3 million ($41 million) Gallows: $2.5 million ($12 million) 7/24-26 ($200 million) Pixels: $57 million Minions: $36 million ($327 million) Ant-Man: $31 million ($129 million) Paper Towns: $28 million Trainwreck: $19.5 million ($68 million) Inside Out: $8.5 million ($359 million) Southpaw: $6 million Terminator Genysis: $5.5 million ($159 million) Jurassic World: $4.5 million ($663 million) Ted 2: $3.5 million ($193 million) 7/31-8/2 ($205 million) MI5: $72 million Pixels: $34 million ($125 million) Vacation: $24 million ($38 million) Minions: $23 million ($373 million) Ant-Man: $14 million ($157 million) Paper Towns: $12 million ($52 million) Trainwreck: $10 million ($88 million) Inside Out: $7 million ($373 million) Southpaw: $4.5 million ($15 million) Terminator Genysis: $2.5 million ($164 million) 8/7-9 ($170 million) Fantastic Four: $46 million MI5: $32 million ($136 million) Pixels: $21 million ($163 million) Ricki and the Flash: $18 million Vacation: $16 million ($70 million) Minions: $13 million ($396 million) Paper Towns: $7 million ($66 million) Trainwreck: $6.5 million ($101 million) Ant-Man: $6 million ($169 million) Inside Out: $5.5 million ($383 million) Would be great to see $200 million+ weekends until August 7th

Poor Max... should have released in September like the Dolphin Tale movies. Jurassic World, Inside Out, Minions, Ant-Man and Pixels have the family demo covered until late August.

Ted 2 - $75 million OW Minions - $125 million OW Ant-Man - $65 million OW Pixels - $60 million OW MI5 - $70 million OW Fantastic Four - $45 million OW Straight Outta Compton - $50 million OW Maze Runner 2 - $40 million OW Hotel Transylvania 2 - $40 million OW The Martian - $45 million OW Crimson Peak - $55 million OW Spectre - $105 million OW Mockingjay Part 2 - $175 million OW The Good Dinosaur - $70 million OW (after $90-100 million 5 day) Star Wars Episode VII - $155 million OW (huge multi) 15 more $40 million OWs Peanuts should do $35-40 million, since kid reactions have been poor to the trailers. Terminator's 5 day weekend will hurt it, unless the film has great reviews/WOM. Even then, $45-50 million is the best case for its 3 day IMO. But then a $70-80 million 5 day.

IO doesn't 'belong' in the animated category. Same for Mad Max in the 'technical' categories. The Oscar voters simply won't admit that a few blockbusters or animated films every year (IO/Fury Road, GotG/LEGO/Princess Kaguya, Wind Rises, Avengers/Skyfall, Deathly Hallows 2/Rango, HTTYD, Star Trek, TDK/WALL-E/Iron Man, Enchanted/Bourne Ultimatum/Ratatouille, Howl's Moving Castle/Were-Rabbit, Incredibles/Azkaban/Spider-Man 2, Finding Nemo/POTC 1, Spirited Away/Shrek 1, etc), can be more inspired and higher-quality than their mediocre "based on a true story/war drama/ritzy musical" tripe they nominate every year. Small-scale independent films and blockbusters can both be great without hurting the other. IO and Fury Road missing BP nominations just shows how irrelevant the Oscars are becoming.

One of the greats may not have been my favorite (John Williams), but still.... his orchestrations will be missed.

Minions, Pixels, Spectre, MJ2 and Good Dinosaur should all do well. Same for Ted 2, MI5 and Compton

I'm thinking 37.5% drop for IO, 42% drop for JW. Deflated Sunday due to no FD bump, WOM and minimal competition its 2nd weekend should help. $55 million for IO, $65 million for JW (from $106-108 million 2nd weekend), and $70 million for Ted 2. Not to mention JW could very well end up increasing to $107-109 million in actuals. So its 3rd weekend should be above $50 million.

JW might increase over a $39 million Sat? Would be phenomenal even considering FD when you think about how big Sat is... and lock the 2nd weekend record.

July isn't that big? Terminator - $110 to $120 million Magic Mike XXL - $65 to $85 million Minions - $320 to $420 million Ant-Man - $140 to $190 million Trainwreck - $80 to $130 million Pixels - $150 to $250 million Paper Towns - $70 to $90 million MI5 - $175 to $225 million Vacation - $100 to $150 million Not to mention IO, Ted 2 and JW holding over for the first couple weeks. July is going to be huge... wouldn't underestimate it. There's some solid hits each week except July 4th.

If anything, JW holding well against Inside Out just proves Ted 2, Terminator and Minions won't hurt it too much. Ted 2 is an R comedy, Terminator is a PG-13 tentpole with minimal buzz, while Minions is PG and targets mostly kids. Ted 2 and Max combined should do $75-80 million at the most. Plus the 3rd weekend is when late legs start to develop. 40-45% drop due to inflated Sunday this week is likely. Terminator should do $30-40 million over the 3-day. Nothing compared to IO's $91 million OW. Add in a July 4th frame... 30-40% drop since Terminator isn't as kid-friendly as Jurassic World. Minions should help Jurassic World in the same way JW helped Pitch Perfect 2. Sellouts will cause people to spill over to JW or IO. Another 35-40% drop. I see 30-40% drops until Ant-Man, personally. Then 4 weekends of 45-60% drops due to a new tentpole every week. Inside Out should hold solidly, too. June 2015 might set the record if Ted 2 surpasses the original's BO.

If the studios had known Avengers 2 wasn't going to do $500 million+ DOM, I think San Andreas would have taken Memorial Day, while Spy and IO moved to the last weekend of May. Schedule should have been (with Hot Pursuit moved to April 24th, Tomorrowland moved to October 9th with a $75 million budget, as well as Aloha/Selfless/American Ultra/Underdogs canned) May 1st: Avengers 2 8th: Mad Max - Fury Road 15th: Poltergeist and PP2 22nd: San Andreas and Aloha 29th: Spy and Inside Out June 5th: Insidious Chapter 3, Paper Towns 12th: Jurassic World 19th: Ricki and the Flash 26th: Pan and Ted 2 July 3rd: Terminator and MMXXL 10th: Minions and Gallows 17th: Ant-Man and Trainwreck 24th: Pixels, Southpaw and Max 31st: Mission Impossible 5 and Vacation August 7th: Fantastic Four, Shaun the Sheep 14th: Straight Outta Compton, Man From UNCLE, Masterminds 21st: Hitman, Sinister 2 28th: War Room, Regression, We Are Your Friends If studios hadn't been afraid of Avengers 2 and actually put some appealing films for Memorial Day weekend, 2015 would be on track for one of the most highest attended ever if it kept up the pace through June/July. Similar to 2002-2004, there's a lot of major films with wide appeal that people want to go see.

Ted 2: $76 million Jurassic World: $69 million ($544 million) Inside Out: $64 million ($211 million) Max: $7 million Spy: $6.5 million ($87 million) San Andreas: $6 million ($144 million) Dope: $6 million ($20 million) Insidious Chapter 3: $2.5 million ($51 million) Avengers - Age of Ultron: $2 million ($453 million) Pitch Perfect 2: $2 million ($181 million) $230-260 million next weekend, potentially... that'd require a solid debut for Ted 2, and great holds for IO/JW, though. Over $200 million is likely to happen again with the sheer power of the top 3 next weekend.

Inside Out has zero competition the next two weeks (unless Max's $5-7 million debut is competition lol)... even with summer weekends, I'm thinking a 35-40% drop due to excellent WOM. The lack of a major Father's Day boost should help it. Also, a lot of families could try to see it in this next 3 weeks before Minions, Ant-Man and Pixels come out. If JW gets $110 million+ for its 2nd weekend, I'm thinking $65-75 million for its 3rd. So IO won't get 1st place. Especially since Ted 2 should do $55-85 million OW (anywhere in that range) due to the extra exposure from trailer attachment to Ted 2. Another huge weekend coming up! With an entire huge month to go.

And how sad is that... you have to be a specific kind of film in order to be 'Oscar material'. That jerk Innaritu is a shoe-in, same with O'Russell and Tarantino. The Revenant won't win due to Birdman last year, but I think Tom Hardy will get Supporting Actor. DiCaprio ignored for Redmayne. Inarritu won't get BD twice in a row either. I think Tarantino or O'Russell will get it. Can't forget another by-the-numbers Oscar baity drama by Tom Hooper. In the year of Caitlyn Jenner, I think Redmayne wins 2 years in a row so the Oscars can brag about how 'progressive' they are - even if there's 2 or 3 better lead performances this year. Another vanilla Oscar bait drama by the Spielberg/Tom Hanks combo who used to do brilliant blockbusters (Raiders, E.T., Jaws, JP) alongside brilliant dramas (Close Encounters, Schindler's List, Saving Private Ryan). This is why the Oscars' legitimacy has gone down the toilet... far too many great films that actually found an audience have been overlooked for 'typical' Oscar bait. And when they do nominate blockbusters, they're almost always bland (Blind Side, American Sniper, The Help, Avatar, etc) Inside Out and Fury Road are easily more inventive than the standard Oscar fare; this year or most years... but you're right. They likely won't be nominated. Well, Mad Max should get 5-6 technical nods and possibly a nod for Theron if the Actress category is bad this year, and IO should get BAF, possibly Sound, Screenplay and Score.

The first Potter had legs.. Over a 3x without a Wed opening to help it

If only your sarcasm were funny..