mahnamahna
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Posts posted by mahnamahna
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Spoiler
- The Lion King: $245 million/$775 million
- Star Wars Episode IX: $255 million/$720 million
- Avengers 4: $230 million/$560 million
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Frozen 2: $110 million 3-day/$155 million 5-day/$440 million
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Wonder Woman 2: $155 million/$390 million
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Spider-Man - Homecoming 2: $145 million/$350 million
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Jumanji 2: $70 million/$315 million
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It Chapter 2: $130 million/$310 million
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Toy Story 4: $90 million/$290 million
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Wicked: $45 million/$270 million
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Captain Marvel: $95 million/$260 million
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Secret Life of Pets 2: $80 million/$255 million
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Shazam: $80 million/$190 million
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Bond 25: $75 million/$180 million
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Glass: $60 million/$165 million
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With a $110-113 million 2nd weekend, BP could feasibly be #1 for 5 or 6 weeks in a row. Wrinkle in Time might not go any higher than $35-40 million OW (its biggest competition during the 5-6 week period), Tomb Raider looks like a non-starter, same goes for Pacific Rim 2. I think people will gladly pick BP over either at this point, akin to Wonder Woman's stellar holds last summer against some of the lesser action tentpoles.
Spoiler3/2-3/4
Black Panther: $65 million ($500 million)
Red Sparrow: $22 million
Game Night: $12 million ($35 million)
3/9-3/11
Black Panther: $42.5 million ($565 million)
A Wrinkle in Time: $40.5 million
Red Sparrow: $10 million ($38 million)
3/16-3/18
Black Panther: $31 million ($613 million)
A Wrinkle in Time: $24 million ($75 million)
Love, Simon: $21.5 million
3/23-3/25
Black Panther: $21 million ($647 million)
Pacific Rim - Uprising: $20.5 million
Paul, Apostle of Christ: $17.5 million
$700 million DOM doesn't sound insane at this point.
$12 million ($669 million)
$9 million ($683 million)
$7.5 million ($694 million)
$4.5 million ($701 million)
$3.5 million ($706 million)
$2.5 million ($710 million)
$2 million ($713 million)
$1 million ($714 million)
$0.75 million/$1 million ($715 million)
$720 million DOM
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Spoiler
3/2-3/4
- Black Panther: $58 million ($481 million)
- Red Sparrow: $22.5 million
- Game Night: $10.5 million ($31 million)
- Peter Rabbit: $10 million ($84 million)
- Death Wish: $8 million
- Annihilation: $4 million ($17 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $4 million ($392 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $3.5 million ($94 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $2 million ($164 million)
- The 15:17 to Paris: $2 million ($35 million)
3/9-3/11
- A Wrinkle in Time: $40.5 million
- Black Panther: $37.5 million ($538 million)
- Red Sparrow: $10 million ($38 million)
- Game Night: $6.5 million ($41 million)
- Gringo: $6 million
- Peter Rabbit: $5 million ($90 million)
- The Hurricane Heist: $4 million
- Death Wish: $3 million ($13 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $2.5 million ($395 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $2 million ($98 million)
3/16-3/18
- Black Panther: $26 million ($579 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $25.5 million ($77 million)
- Love, Simon: $21.5 million
- Tomb Raider: $18.5 million
- Red Sparrow: $5 million ($46 million)
- Game Night: $4.5 million ($48 million)
- Peter Rabbit: $4 million ($95 million)
- I Can Only Imagine: $3.5 million
- Gringo: $3 million ($11 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $1.5 million ($397 million)
3/23-3/25
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $21 million
- Pacific Rim - Uprising: $19.5 million
- Black Panther: $18.5 million ($609 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $16 million ($102 million)
- Love, Simon: $14 million ($44 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $13 million
- Unsane: $4 million
- Midnight Sun: $3.5 million
- Game Night: $3 million ($53 million)
- Red Sparrow: $2.5 million ($50 million)
3/30-4/1
- Ready Player One: $50 million ($62 million)
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $17.5 million ($53 million)
- Acrimony: $16 million
- Black Panther: $12 million ($630 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $10.5 million ($120 million)
- Love, Simon: $9 million ($60 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $8.5 million ($27 million)
- God's Not Dead - A Light in Darkness: $4 million
- Peter Rabbit: $2.5 million ($102 million)
- Unsane: $2 million ($7 million)
4/6-4/8
- A Quiet Place: $30.5 million
- Blockers: $25 million
- Ready Player One: $23.5 million ($98 million)
- Black Panther: $9 million ($644 million)
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $7.5 million ($64 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $7 million ($130 million)
- Love, Simon: $6 million ($69 million)
- Acrimony: $5.5 million ($25 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $5 million ($34 million)
- Chappadaquick: $3.5 million
4/13-4/15
- A Quiet Place: $21 million ($62 million)
- Blockers: $17 million ($50 million)
- Ready Player One: $14.5 million ($120 million)
- Truth or Dare: $13 million
- Black Panther: $7.5 million ($655 million)
- Overboard: $7 million
- A Wrinkle in Time: $5 million ($136 million)
- Love, Simon: $4 million ($75 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $3.5 million ($38 million)
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $3 million ($68 million)
4/20-4/22
- Rampage: $54 million
- A Quiet Place: $14 million ($83 million)
- Blockers: $10.5 million ($65 million)
- Tully: $7.5 million
- Ready Player One: $7 million ($131 million)
- Black Panther: $5 million ($663 million)
- Truth or Dare: $4.5 million ($20 million)
- Overboard: $4 million ($13 million)
- Super Troopers 2: $4 million
- A Wrinkle in Time: $3.5 million ($140 million)
4/27-4/29
- Rampage: $29 million ($97 million)
- I Feel Pretty: $23 million
- A Quiet Place: $9 million ($96 million)
- Traffik: $6 million
- Blockers: $5.5 million ($73 million)
- Ready Player One: $5 million ($139 million)
- Bad Samaritan: $4.5 million
- Black Panther: $4 million ($669 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $2.5 million ($143 million)
- Overboard: $2.5 million ($17 million)
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Spoiler
$4.5 million ($162 million)
$3.75 million ($168 million)
$3.25 million ($173 million)
$2.5 million ($177 million)
$2 million ($180 million)
$1.5 million ($182 million)
$1 million ($184 million)
$185-188 million DOM
With the Blu-Ray moved to Apr 17, $170-175 million DOM isn't the ceiling anymore... wouldn't be shocked if Jumanji moves to 3/27, so Sony can get an extra week in the top 10.
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This might become the #1 MCU DOM. And if its Sunday hold is really that spectacular, a 2nd weekend drop closer to 40% than 50% might happen... could get into the 650-700 range with this WOM.
200.5/233
100 (365)
57 (452)
38 (510)
26.5 (552)
17 (580)
10 (597)
8 (609)
6 (618)
3 (623)
2 (626)
1.25 (628)
$632 million DOM
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3 hours ago, KP1025 said:
No Avatar on your revised list? There was no precedent for it doing nearly as well as it did other than the success of Titanic 12 years earlier.
The James Cameron factor and build-up of buzz for its 3D and visuals put it somewhere in the 26-28 range for me. It's a surprise, but not enough for a top 25 IMO
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If I were to expand into a top 25 for 2000-present, I'd say:
Spoiler- My Big Fat Greek Wedding (an indie film with next-to-no Oscar buzz doing $380 million DOM adjusted is nothing short of a WOM phenomenon; unlike TGS, it didn't have a major studio capable of releasing tons of ads for the film; it became a grassroots movement)
- The Greatest Showman
- Fahrenheit 9/11 (slightly more impressive since Michael Moore's previous output hadn't done anywhere close to $120 million DOM; also as a documentary, no matter how entertaining and inaccurate it was, its audience would be limited)
- The Passion of the Christ (much more out of the blue than Sniper; Sniper had WB's marketing efforts, Eastwood as a respected director and Bradley Cooper as a likable lead; Passion had a relatively unknown cast and a slightly less respected than Eastwood (back in 2004) releasing at the end of February in a time before Deadpool, LEGO Movie, LEGO Batman, Fifty Shades, SB2, Kingsman 1 and Black Panther made it passe to release a big film; $370 million for a mid-budget epic is remarkable)
- The Blind Side
- American Sniper
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle
- The Ring ($130 million DOM from a $15 million OW is unheard of for the horror genre; for 15 years, this film's performance stood out as the only non-PA1 horror to get a 5x from a typical wide release from the get-go)
- March of the Penguins (nearly $100 million DOM when adjusted for inflation... Morgan Freeman's narration just had that kind of draw, but a nature doc has never before and likely never again achieved this kind of success)
- The Polar Express (despite its extremely disappointing OW sandwiched between The Incredibles and National Treasure/SpongeBob, it pulled a mini-mini-mini Greatest Showman and achieved high enough numbers via late legs, re-releases and home video to become the last true modern Christmas favorite)
- Get Out
- Paranormal Activity (this film's unique distribution makes its legs a little less impressive than The Ring or Get Out, but very much a grassroots sensation spawning a franchise)
- Frozen
- Zootopia
- The Proposal
- Paul Blart - Mall Cop
- Wild Hogs (a guilty pleasure of mine, but seriously, how did this reach nearly $170 million DOM?)
- Taken
- Shrek (the surprise factor goes down significantly when you consider how fresh it felt, its stellar WOM and lack of family-friendly competition; its 6x+ is striking)
- Night at the Museum (before Jumanji, there was NATM; it captured the big-spectacle whimsy of Chris Columbus' earlier efforts like Home Alone and Mrs. Doubtfire back in 2006/2007; Ben Stiller in his prime, but still, $140-160 million DOM would have been the ceiling using normal holiday projections)
- Borat (a hard-R indie comedy on the verge of NC-17 doing $25 million OW from around 800 theaters is crazy; its subsequent 2nd-weekend increase even crazier)
- National Treasure (how'd a guilty pleasure starring Nicolas Cage get $200 million+ DOM adjusted? I love the movie, but in one of the most crowded family marketplaces of the 21st century along with November 2011, its success and the success of Incredibles/Polar Express/Kranks/SpongeBob/Lemony Snicket is quite remarkable - probably the last year movie attendance came close to matching 2002/2003 levels)
- Wedding Crashers (Even $120-130 million DOM would have been a solid performance; this also paved the way for more R-rated comedies to get the greenlight, and once Judd Apatow hit the scene in 2007, it became consistently offered until The Hangover in 2009)
- Gran Torino (the premise and potential for this to be Clint Eastwood's final film makes this much less of a surprise than the other 2 January 2009 breakouts, but still crazy, nonetheless)
- Chicken Run (considering most stop-motion films stop at $50 million DOM or so, this film's performance is definitely surprising)
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My top 15 for 2009-2018's most surprising box-office performances:
- The Greatest Showman (I don't care about its OW only being $8.8 million - with next-to-no Oscar buzz and a 3.5x being considered 'great' legs in 2017-2018, this is handily on its way to nearly a 20x; don't think we'll see a performance like this from a non-Oscar contender ever again)
- The Blind Side (totally unexpected blockbuster - if it had gotten more serious Oscar buzz beyond Best Actress, it might have legged its way to $300-305 million DOM and finished above New Moon despite opening a good $108 million lower; $300 million+ DOM for a feel-good, sentimental sports and family drama is crazy)
- American Sniper (almost no one predicted more than $150-170 million DOM for this; it did $350 million DOM as an R-rated war drama in an era when adult-skewing dramas only do $75 million+ DOM with Oscar buzz, for the most part)
- Get Out (while The Conjuring changed the narrative about horror films not being able to go beyond a 2.5x, this ended up being the first horror film with spectacular legs (4.5x or above) since The Ring in 2002. Even with its Oscar buzz, $175 million DOM for a low-budget horror comedy thriller tackling race issues is crazy to think about - 2017 will be remembered as the year of horror breakouts with 4 huge hits, Annabelle 2 counting as one since who woulda thought $100 million+ DOM was a possibility for a horror sequel where the original did $84 million DOM?)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle (since this is a crowdpleasing family film released in the holidays and given essentially 5 weekends to itself since Paddington 2 fell flat and nothing else until Feb 9 had any real family appeal, I put Get Out ahead of it, but this has performed like NATM on steroids. This hit the perfect zeitgeist of TLJ's middling WOM and Greatest Showman's unlikely success story creating enough sellouts to make Jumanji a good alternative for its first 8-9 weekends; it'll likely stay in the top 10 until 3/9 or 3/16, so this has performed remarkably well)
- Frozen (since this was a Disney princess film that opened to $95 million over its 5-day, I didn't think it started low enough to put it into the top 5 surprises, but its performance is still shocking; its first few weeks of release indicated very little about what its run from Christmas week on would be like, but then it had a nearly 50% increase and never really slowed down afterwards, like Jumanji; its holds against LEGO Movie and Mr. Peabody were especially impressive)
- Zootopia (this film's run is similar to Finding Nemo, so I wouldn't say it should go any higher than this, but its 4.5x from a $75 million OW stands out in an era when critically-acclaimed animated films can't seem to get a 4x like they used to; despite opening to less than half of BvS's OW, it finished $11 million above it)
- The Proposal (this is the first of three baffling box-office runs for me; it had mediocre reviews, it came out as Up and The Hangover were two original films with higher acclaim achieving success at the box office, TF2 opened to $200 million DOM for its 5-day... yet this managed nearly a 5x from a $33 million OW... really would like to know how such a vanilla rom-com became a mini-phenomenon)
- Paul Blart - Mall Cop (this run is almost as surprising, but most everything from January-February 2009 succeeded, so it's not as impressive as The Proposal's success in a busy Summer 2009 slate; as a critically-panned comedy, even with family appeal and a MLK-inflated OW, $90-100 million DOM should have been its ceiling; somehow it got to nearly $150 million DOM...)
- Taken (this run is the least surprising of the three smaller breakouts lost in the shadow of The Blind Side and The Hangover back in 2009, but its roughly 6x as an above-average action thriller launched a trilogy, a TV series and Liam Nesson's emergence as an action star in his mid-50s/early-60s)
- The Hangover (while lots of people expected it to do 30/110, its 6x from a $45 million OW wasn't really expected; it proved to be a catalyst for why almost every comedy today gets an R rating when the 2000s had been defined by comedies, horrors and action thrillers treading the thin line between PG-13 and R, just barely sneaking in as a PG-13)
- Wonder Woman (while the best 2nd weekend drop for a SH movie since Spidey 1 and The Incredibles certainly stood out, and its staying power stands out in the current frontloaded era, I can't really be utterly shocked by a big-budget tentpole with critical acclaim and stellar WOM doing $400 million+ DOM)
- Jurassic World (same as WW, it's hard to be shocked at a crowdpleaser doing $450 million+ DOM; the biggest surprise was its OW and finishing above Avengers 1; it proved to be the most casual of any of the $175 million+ openers so far)
- Bridesmaids (in a disappointing box-office year where every major hit seemed to do $175-225 million DOM, this became a huge success despite Hangover 2 and Bad Teacher threatening to significantly reduce its late legs; it also proved to be one of the rare comedies today to actually receive Golden Globe nods and get some Oscar nods as well)
- Guardians of the Galaxy (only surprising because it happened in August and did so as an unknown property, unknown to be almost akin to some of Pixar's earliest - critically acclaimed, but a new world and story to explore; its 3.6x was impressive, even if earned in the August-September frame where it's easier to hold well)
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Spoiler
2/23-2/25
- Black Panther: $102 million ($375 million)
- Game Night: $21 million
- Peter Rabbit: $11 million ($67 million)
- Annihilation: $10 million
- Fifty Shades Freed: $8 million ($89 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $6.5 million ($388 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $5 million ($163 million)
- The 15:17 to Paris: $4.5 million ($33 million)
- Early Man: $2.5 million ($8 million)
- Every Day: $2 million
3/2-3/4
- Black Panther: $57.5 million ($463 million)
- Red Sparrow: $29 million
- Game Night: $13 million ($40 million)
- Peter Rabbit: $8 million ($77 million)
- Death Wish: $7 million
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $5 million ($395 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $4.5 million ($169 million)
- Annihilation: $4 million ($17 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $3.5 million ($94 million)
- The 15:17 to Paris: $2 million ($36 million)
3/9-3/11
- A Wrinkle in Time: $52 million
- Black Panther: $39 million ($522 million)
- Red Sparrow: $14 million ($51 million)
- Game Night: $8.5 million ($53 million)
- Gringo: $6 million
- Peter Rabbit: $4.5 million ($84 million)
- The Hurricane Heist: $3.5 million
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $3.5 million ($400 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $3 million ($174 million)
- Death Wish: $3 million ($12 million)
3/16-3/18
- A Wrinkle in Time: $33 million ($104 million)
- Black Panther: $28 million ($566 million)
- Love, Simon: $24.5 million
- Tomb Raider: $22 million
- Red Sparrow: $6.5 million ($62 million)
- Game Night: $5 million ($61 million)
- Peter Rabbit: $3.5 million ($89 million)
- Gringo: $3 million
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $2.5 million ($404 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $2 million ($177 million)
3/23-3/25
- A Wrinkle in Time: $21.5 million ($138 million)
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $20.5 million
- Black Panther: $19 million ($597 million)
- Love, Simon: $16 million ($50 million)
- Pacific Rim - Uprising: $14.5 million
- Sherlock Gnomes: $13.5 million
- Tomb Raider: $9.5 million ($37 million)
- Red Sparrow: $4 million ($68 million)
- Midnight Sun: $3.5 million
- Game Night: $3 million ($66 million)
3/30-4/1
- Ready Player One: $53 million ($66 million)
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $20 million ($55 million)
- Acrimony: $18 million
- A Wrinkle in Time: $15 million ($162 million)
- Black Panther: $11 million ($616 million)
- Love, Simon: $10.5 million ($67 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $9 million ($28 million)
- Pacific Rim - Uprising: $5 million ($22 million)
- Tomb Raider: $4.5 million ($44 million)
- Red Sparrow: $2.5 million ($72 million)
4/6-4/8
- A Quiet Place: $31.5 million
- Ready Player One: $25.5 million ($107 million)
- Blockers: $24 million
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $10 million ($70 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $9.5 million ($175 million)
- Black Panther: $8 million ($629 million)
- Love, Simon: $7.5 million ($78 million)
- Acrimony: $7 million ($28 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $6 million ($36 million)
- Pacific Rim - Uprising: $3 million ($27 million)
4/13-4/15
- A Quiet Place: $22 million ($64 million)
- Ready Player One: $17 million ($133 million)
- Blockers: $16.5 million ($49 million)
- Truth or Dare: $14 million
- A Wrinkle in Time: $8 million ($185 million)
- Black Panther: $7 million ($639 million)
- Love, Simon: $6 million ($87 million)
- Overboard: $5.5 million
- Sherlock Gnomes: $4.5 million ($41 million)
- Acrimony: $3 million ($33 million)
4/20-4/22
- Rampage: $53 million
- A Quiet Place: $15 million ($87 million)
- Blockers: $10 million ($64 million)
- Ready Player One: $8 million ($145 million)
- Tully: $7.5 million
- A Wrinkle in Time: $6 million ($192 million)
- Truth or Dare: $5.5 million ($22 million)
- Black Panther: $5 million ($647 million)
- Love, Simon: $4.5 million ($94 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $3.5 million ($45 million)
4/27-4/29
- Rampage: $30.5 million ($99 million)
- I Feel Pretty: $24.5 million
- A Quiet Place: $10 million ($102 million)
- Ready Player One: $6 million ($154 million)
- Traffik: $5.5 million
- Blockers: $5 million ($72 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $4.5 million ($197 million)
- Black Panther: $4 million ($653 million)
- Tully: $3.5 million ($13 million)
- Love, Simon: $3 million ($98 million)
5/4-5/6
- Avengers - Infinity War: $216 million
- I Feel Pretty: $13 million ($43 million)
- Rampage: $10 million ($115 million)
- A Quiet Place: $5.5 million ($110 million)
- Black Panther: $2.5 million ($656 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $2.5 million ($200 million)
- Ready Player One: $2 million ($157 million)
- Traffik: $2 million ($8 million)
- Blockers: $2 million ($75 million)
- Love, Simon: $1.75 million ($101 million)
5/11-5/13
- Avengers - Infinity War: $97 million ($364 million)
- Life of the Party: $13 million
- Breaking In: $10 million
- I Feel Pretty: $9.5 million ($57 million)
- Rampage: $8 million ($127 million)
- A Quiet Place: $4 million ($116 million)
- Black Panther: $2 million ($659 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $2 million ($202 million)
- Ready Player One: $1.5 million ($159 million)
- Love, Simon: $1.25 million ($103 million)
5/18-5/20
- Deadpool 2: $154 million
- Avengers - Infinity War: $44.5 million ($432 million)
- Book Club: $12 million
- I Feel Pretty: $6.5 million ($67 million)
- Life of the Party: $6 million ($22 million)
- Breaking In: $4.5 million ($17 million)
- Rampage: $4.5 million ($134 million)
- Show Dogs: $4 million
- A Quiet Place: $2.5 million ($120 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $1.5 million ($204 million)
5/25-5/28
- Solo - A Star Wars Story: $109 million/$133 million
- Deadpool 2: $58 million/$74.5 million ($260 million)
- Avengers - Infinity War: $25 million/$32.5 million ($477 million)
- Book Club: $9 million/$10.5 million ($27 million)
- I Feel Pretty: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($76 million)
- Life of the Party: $4 million/$4.75 million ($29 million)
- Breaking In: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($23 million)
- Rampage: $3.25 million/$4 million ($139 million)
- Show Dogs: $3 million/$4 million ($9 million)
- A Quiet Place: $1.5 million/$2 million ($123 million)
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Jumanji
$8.4 million/$10.3 million ($380.9 million)
$6.7 million ($389.3 million)
$5.1 million ($396.4 million)
$3.2 million ($400.9 million)
$1.8 million ($403.5 million)
$0.8 million ($404.7 million)
$406 million DOM
Greatest Showman
$5.5 million/$6.7 million ($157.0 million)
$4.7 million ($162.8 million)
$3.5 million ($167.9 million)
$2.3 million ($171.5 million)
$1.4 million ($173.7 million)
$0.9 million ($175.1 million)
$0.5 million ($175.9 million)
$177.5 million DOM
Crazy for both and they're honestly limited by the early HV releases. I'd say $185-192 million DOM for TGS and $410-413 million DOM for Jumanji if they weren't going to drop significantly from 3/2 and 3/16 on, respectively.
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33 minutes ago, KP1025 said:
That's a phenomenal hold for Jumanji given the new openers. It will be interesting to see how everything drops when Black Panther opens.
At this point, Jumanji and Greatest Showman will be more likely to keep screens than Maze Runner, Winchester, Den of Thieves or 12 Strong, so I still expect sub-30% drops. Theaters are just reaping too much of the profit to take much of any screens away from either film. It'll be even crazier when 15:17 to Paris starts losing more screens faster than either
Fifty Shades, Early Man and Samson might be in less theaters than either by March 2nd...
Black Panther sellouts may actually help Jumanji since it's the closest thing in the marketplace to a tentpole right now. $8.3 million/$10.2 million ($381 million thru 2/19) sounds about right.
I'm predicting this as the top 12 this coming weekend.
- Black Panther: $142.5 million/$175 million
- Peter Rabbit: $16.5 million/$22 million ($57 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $14 million/$16.75 million ($72 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $8 million/$10 million ($381 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $5.25 million/$6.5 million ($157 million)
- Early Man: $5 million/$6.5 million
- The 15:17 to Paris: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($21 million)
- Samson: $4.5 million/$5.5 million
- The Post: $3 million/$3.75 million ($78 million)
- The Shape of Water: $2.5 million/$3 million ($55 million)
- Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $2.5 million/$3 million ($53 million)
- Winchester: $2 million/$2.35 million ($21 million)
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Going off its estimated 8th weekend total:
Spoiler$5.3 million/$6.6 million ($156.8 million)
$4.4 million ($162.5 million)
$3.4 million ($167.6 million)
$2.2 million ($171.1 million)
$1.3 million ($173.2 million)
$0.8 million ($174.4 million)
$176 million DOM
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Spoiler
2/16-2/18
- Black Panther: $142.5 million/$174 million
- Peter Rabbit: $15.5 million/$21 million ($52 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $15 million/$18 million ($76 million)
- Samson: $9 million/$10.5 million
- Early Man: $6.5 million/$8 million
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $6.5 million/$8 million ($376 million)
- The 15:17 to Paris: $5.25 million/$6.5 million ($23 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $5 million/$6 million ($156 million)
- The Post: $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($77 million)
- The Shape of Water: $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($55 million)
2/23-2/25
- Black Panther: $61.5 million ($255 million)
- Game Night: $21 million
- Annihilation: $14.5 million
- Peter Rabbit: $10 million ($64 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $8 million ($87 million)
- Samson: $4.5 million ($17 million)
- Early Man: $4.5 million ($13 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $4.5 million ($381 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $4 million ($161 million)
- The 15:17 to Paris: $2.5 million ($26 million)
3/2-3/4
- Black Panther: $38 million ($313 million)
- Red Sparrow: $29.5 million
- Game Night: $13 million ($40 million)
- Death Wish: $10.5 million
- Peter Rabbit: $7.5 million ($74 million)
- Annihilation: $7 million ($25 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $4 million ($93 million)
- Early Man: $3.5 million ($17 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $3 million ($386 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $3 million ($166 million)
3/9-3/11
- A Wrinkle in Time: $53 million
- Black Panther: $26 million ($353 million)
- Red Sparrow: $17.5 million ($56 million)
- Game Night: $8 million ($52 million)
- Gringo: $6 million
- The Hurricane Heist: $5 million
- Peter Rabbit: $3.5 million ($79 million)
- Annihilation: $3 million ($30 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $2.25 million ($96 million)
- Early Man: $2 million ($20 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $2 million ($389 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $2 million ($169 million)
3/16-3/18
- A Wrinkle in Time: $32.5 million ($105 million)
- Tomb Raider: $21.5 million
- Black Panther: $18 million ($382 million)
- Love, Simon: $16.5 million
- Red Sparrow: $9 million ($70 million)
- Game Night: $5.5 million ($61 million)
- I Can Only Imagine: $4 million
- Gringo: $3 million ($11 million)
- The Hurricane Heist: $2.5 million ($9 million)
- Peter Rabbit: $2.5 million ($83 million)
3/23-3/25
- A Wrinkle in Time: $21 million ($138 million)
- Pacific Rim - Uprising: $20 million
- Sherlock Gnomes: $13.5 million
- Black Panther: $11 million ($400 million)
- Love, Simon: $10.5 million ($33 million)
- Tomb Raider: $10 million ($37 million)
- Red Sparrow: $5 million ($78 million)
- Midnight Sun: $4 million
- Game Night: $3.5 million ($66 million)
- Unsane: $3 million
3/30-4/1
- Ready Player One: $68 million ($82 million)
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $21 million ($34 million)
- Acrimony: $17 million
- A Wrinkle in Time: $15 million ($162 million)
- Black Panther: $7 million ($411 million)
- Love, Simon: $6.5 million ($44 million)
- Pacific Rim - Uprising: $6 million ($30 million)
- Tomb Raider: $4 million ($44 million)
- God's Not Dead - A Light in Darkness: $3.5 million
- Red Sparrow: $3 million ($83 million)
4/6-4/8
- A Quiet Place: $33 million
- Ready Player One: $32.5 million ($132 million)
- Blockers: $23.5 million
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $11.5 million ($51 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $10.5 million ($177 million)
- Acrimony: $6.5 million ($27 million)
- Black Panther: $5.5 million ($419 million)
- Love, Simon: $4.5 million ($51 million)
- Pacific Rim - Uprising: $3 million ($34 million)
- Tomb Raider: $2 million ($47 million)
4/13-4/15
- A Quiet Place: $22 million ($67 million)
- Ready Player One: $21 million ($163 million)
- Blockers: $15 million ($45 million)
- Truth or Dare: $13.5 million
- Overboard: $8 million
- A Wrinkle in Time: $7.5 million ($187 million)
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $6.5 million ($61 million)
- Black Panther: $4.5 million ($426 million)
- Love, Simon: $3.5 million ($56 million)
- Acrimony: $3 million ($32 million)
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45 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
170-190 is my range. Shame it could get so close to 200 but probably still nearly impossible to make it. But with this movie who knows. Its Thu number is going to be nearly flat with last Thu, so if it stays flat this weekend and then has a very small drop for the holiday weekend next week, 200 might not be impossible after all.
$7.5 million ($147.6 million)
$7.1 million/$8.5 million ($160.5 million)
$6.2 million ($168.7 million)
$5.3 million ($176.7 million)
$4.2 million ($183.5 million)
$3.3 million ($188.6 million)
$2.6 million ($192.8 million)
$1.9 million ($195.7 million)
$1.4 million ($198.0 million)
$1.0 million ($199.5 million)
$0.7 million ($200.5 million)
$0.5 million ($201.2 million)
$0.35 million ($201.7 million)
$203 million DOM
I think $175-180 million DOM is the most likely scenario, though. To stay flat for two consecutive weeks and then keep up the sub-20% drops until end of March/beginning of April would be insane, considering it'll likely be in less than 2,000 theaters by Feb 16. However, its entire run has defied convention, moreso than Frozen IMO in terms of staying power. Frozen at least opened big, had a 50% 2nd weekend drop and had a few 25-30% drops before its crazy holding power kicked in.
Greatest Showman just continues performing the way WOM hits of the 1980s and early 1990s did. Theater owners might just keep it until mid-to-late March since they make so much of a profit once a film gets this far into its run.
-
How high could this go? If it manages $7-7.3 million this weekend and $6.3-6.7 million the following 3-day, $185 million+ DOM wouldn't be out of the question.
$165 million DOM appears to almost be the floor.
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1
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Spoiler
January
none...
February
Fifty Shades Freed - $41 million/$100 million
Peter Rabbit - $28 million/$104 million
Black Panther - $138 million/$427 million
March
Red Sparrow - $31.5 million/$101 million
A Wrinkle in Time - $53 million/$194 million
Ready Player One - $80 million/$245 million
April
A Quiet Place - $31 million/$128 million
Rampage - $52 million/$136 million
May
Solo - A Star Wars Story: $124 million/$286 million
Deadpool 2 - $153 million/$358 million
Avengers - Infinity War: $227 million/$554 million
June
Ocean's 8 - $48 million/$182 million
Incredibles 2 - $127 million/$428 million
Jurassic World - Fallen Kingdom - $175 million/$473 million
July
The Nun - $37 million/$103 million
Skyscraper - $46 million/$123 million
Hotel Transylvania 3 - Summer Vacation - $38 million/$139 million
Mission: Impossible - Fallout - $49 million/$166 million
Ant-Man and the Wasp - $71 million/$189 million
August
The Meg - $44 million/$102 million
Scarface - $73 million/$186 million
September
probably none, but something might surprise - should be a lot in the $50-85 million range
October
A Star is Born - $30 million/$102 million
Halloween - $58 million/$128 million
First Man - $27 million/$143 million
Venom - $62 million/$178 million
November
Dark Phoenix - $47 million/$106 million
Creed 2 - $35 million/$107 million
Widows - $23 million/$111 million
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-it Ralph 2: $43 million/$141 million
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald - $89 million/$227 million
Dr. Seuss' The Grinch - $118 million/$442 million
December
Holmes and Watson - $26 million/$114 million
Aquaman - $54 million/$238 million
Mary Poppins Returns - $47 million/$403 million
-
Spoiler
2/9-2/11
- Fifty Shades Freed: $41 million
- Peter Rabbit: $28 million
- The 15:17 to Paris: $16 million
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $7.5 million ($364 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $6.5 million ($147 million)
- Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $6 million ($49 million)
- The Post: $4.5 million ($74 million)
- Hostiles: $4 million ($27 million)
- The Shape of Water: $3.5 million ($49 million)
- 12 Strong: $3 million ($42 million)
2/16-2/18
- Black Panther: $138.5 million/$170 million
- Peter Rabbit: $17 million/$23.5 million ($63 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $16 million/$19 million ($79 million)
- The 15:17 to Paris: $9 million/$11 million ($32 million)
- Samson: $8 million/$10 million
- Early Man: $6 million/$7.75 million
- The Greatest Showman: $5 million/$6.25 million ($157 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $5 million/$6.5 million ($372 million)
- The Post: $3.5 million/$4 million ($80 million)
- The Shape of Water: $3 million/$3.5 million ($55 million)
2/23-2/25
- Black Panther: $57 million ($248 million)
- Game Night: $22 million
- Annihilation: $17.5 million
- Peter Rabbit: $11 million ($77 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $7 million ($88 million)
- The 15:17 to Paris: $4.5 million ($38 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $4 million ($162 million)
- Early Man: $4 million ($13 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $3.5 million ($376 million)
- Samson: $3.5 million ($15 million)
- The Post: $3 million ($84 million)
- The Shape of Water: $3 million ($59 million)
3/2-3/4
- Black Panther: $36.5 million ($304 million)
- Red Sparrow: $31 million
- Game Night: $14 million ($43 million)
- Annihilation: $10.5 million ($33 million)
- Peter Rabbit: $8 million ($87 million)
- Death Wish: $7.5 million
- Fifty Shades Freed: $4 million ($94 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $3.25 million ($167 million)
- Early Man: $3 million ($17 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $2.5 million ($379 million)
- The Post: $2 million ($87 million)
- The Shape of Water: $2 million ($62 million)
3/9-3/11
- A Wrinkle in Time: $53 million
- Black Panther: $25 million ($343 million)
- Red Sparrow: $18 million ($59 million)
- Game Night: $9 million ($58 million)
- Annihilation: $7 million ($44 million)
- Gringo: $6 million
- The Hurricane Heist: $4.5 million
- Peter Rabbit: $4 million ($93 million)
- Death Wish: $3.5 million ($13 million)
- Strangers - Prey at Night: $3 million
- The Greatest Showman: $2.25 million ($171 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $1.5 million ($381 million)
3/16-3/18
- A Wrinkle in Time: $33 million ($107 million)
- Tomb Raider: $23 million
- Black Panther: $17 million ($371 million)
- Love, Simon: $16 million
- Red Sparrow: $10.5 million ($75 million)
- Game Night: $5.5 million ($66 million)
- Annihilation: $4.5 million ($51 million)
- Gringo: $3.5 million ($11 million)
- Peter Rabbit: $3 million ($98 million)
- The Hurricane Heist: $2.5 million ($10 million)
- Death Wish: $2 million ($16 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $1.5 million ($173 million)
3/23-3/25
- A Wrinkle in Time: $22.5 million ($145 million)
- Pacific Rim - Uprising: $20 million
- Sherlock Gnomes: $16 million
- Black Panther: $11.5 million ($390 million)
- Love, Simon: $11 million ($34 million)
- Tomb Raider: $10.5 million ($40 million)
- Red Sparrow: $6.5 million ($86 million)
- Midnight Sun: $5 million
- Unsane: $3.5 million
- Game Night: $3.5 million ($71 million)
3/30-4/1
- Ready Player One: $82 million ($98 million)
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $20.5 million ($33 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $16 million ($171 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $10.5 million ($33 million)
- Black Panther: $7 million ($402 million)
- Pacific Rim - Uprising: $6.5 million ($30 million)
- Love, Simon: $6 million ($44 million)
- God's Not Dead 3 - A Light in Darkness: $5 million
- Tomb Raider: $4.5 million ($47 million)
- Red Sparrow: $4 million ($92 million)
4/6-4/8
- Ready Player One: $37.5 million ($157 million)
- A Quiet Place: $31 million
- Blockers: $23 million
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $12 million ($50 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $11 million ($185 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $7 million ($42 million)
- Black Panther: $5 million ($410 million)
- Pacific Rim - Uprising: $4 million ($36 million)
- Love, Simon: $3.5 million ($49 million)
- Chappadaquick: $3 million
4/13-4/15
- Ready Player One: $25.5 million ($196 million)
- A Quiet Place: $22.5 million ($65 million)
- Truth or Dare: $16.5 million
- Blockers: $15.5 million ($46 million)
- Overboard: $10.5 million
- A Wrinkle in Time: $8 million ($195 million)
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $7.5 million ($60 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $5 million ($48 million)
- Isle of Dogs: $4.5 million ($9 million)
- Black Panther: $4 million ($416 million)
4/20-4/22
- Rampage: $52 million
- A Quiet Place: $14.5 million ($86 million)
- Ready Player One: $13 million ($217 million)
- Blockers: $10 million ($61 million)
- Tully: $7.5 million
- Overboard: $6.5 million ($21 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $6 million ($192 million)
- Truth or Dare: $6 million ($26 million)
- Super Troopers 2: $4.5 million
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $4 million ($65 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $3.5 million ($52 million)
- Isle of Dogs: $3 million ($14 million)
4/27-4/29
- Rampage: $28.5 million ($95 million)
- A Quiet Place: $10.5 million ($102 million)
- Ready Player One: $9 million ($231 million)
- Blockers: $8 million ($73 million)
- Traffik: $6.5 million
- Tully: $5 million ($15 million)
- Overboard: $5 million ($29 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $4.5 million ($198 million)
- Untitled Entertainment Studios Animation: $4 million
- Truth or Dare: $3 million ($31 million)
5/4-5/6
- Avengers - Infinity War: $227 million
- Rampage: $10 million ($111 million)
- A Quiet Place: $6 million ($111 million)
- Blockers: $5 million ($81 million)
- Ready Player One: $4 million ($237 million)
- Traffik: $3.5 million ($11 million)
- Overboard: $3 million ($34 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $3 million ($202 million)
- Tully: $2.75 million ($11 million)
- Untitled Entertainment Studios Animation: $2 million ($6 million)
5/11-5/13
- Avengers - Infinity War: $96 million ($374 million)
- Life of the Party: $17.5 million
- Breaking In: $14 million
- Rampage: $7.5 million ($122 million)
- A Quiet Place: $4.5 million ($118 million)
- Blockers: $3 million ($86 million)
- Ready Player One: $3 million ($242 million)
- Overboard: $2.5 million ($38 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $2.25 million ($205 million)
- Traffik: $2 million ($14 million)
5/18-5/20
- Deadpool 2: $153 million
- Avengers - Infinity War: $43.5 million ($440 million)
- Book Club: $12 million
- Life of the Party: $8 million ($29 million)
- Show Dogs: $6.5 million
- Breaking In: $5.5 million ($23 million)
- Rampage: $4 million ($128 million)
- A Quiet Place: $2.5 million ($122 million)
- Ready Player One: $1.5 million ($244 million)
- Blockers: $1.5 million ($88 million)
5/25-5/28
- Solo - A Star Wars Story: $124 million/$153 million
- Deadpool 2: $58 million/$76 million ($261 million)
- Avengers - Infinity War: $25 million/$33 million ($487 million)
- Book Club: $8 million/$10 million ($26 million)
- Life of the Party: $5.5 million/$6.75 million ($39 million)
- Show Dogs: $5 million/$6.75 million ($14 million)
- Breaking In: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($29 million)
- Rampage: $3 million/$4 million ($133 million)
- A Quiet Place: $2 million/$2.5 million ($125 million)
- Blockers: $1 million/$1.35 million ($90 million)
6/1-6/3
- Solo - A Star Wars Story: $48.5 million ($215 million)
- Deadpool 2: $27 million ($300 million)
- Action Point: $17 million
- Avengers - Infinity War: $14.5 million ($508 million)
- Adrift: $8 million
- Book Club: $5.5 million ($33 million)
- Life of the Party: $3.5 million ($44 million)
- Show Dogs: $3.5 million ($18 million)
- Breaking In: $2 million ($32 million)
- Rampage: $2 million ($136 million)
6/8-6/10
- Ocean's 8: $48.5 million
- Solo - A Star Wars Story: $22.5 million ($251 million)
- Deadpool 2: $16 million ($326 million)
- Avengers - Infinity War: $9 million ($523 million)
- Hereditary: $8 million
- Action Point: $7.5 million ($29 million)
- Book Club: $2.5 million ($37 million)
- Life of the Party: $2 million ($47 million)
- Show Dogs: $2 million ($21 million)
- Rampage: $1.5 million ($138 million)
6/15-6/17
- The Incredibles 2: $127 million
- Ocean's 8: $31 million ($100 million)
- Tag: $13 million
- Superfly: $11.5 million
- Solo - A Star Wars Story: $11 million ($269 million)
- Avengers - Infinity War: $6 million ($533 million)
- Untitled Entertainment Studios Film: $5.5 million
- Hereditary: $3 million ($13 million)
- Action Point: $3 million ($35 million)
- Book Club: $1.5 million ($40 million)
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On 1/25/2018 at 6:49 PM, That One Guy said:
The Post...Shape of Water, and...Darkest Hour?
We're fucked.SpoilerThe Post
$6.6 million ($68 million)
$5.7 million ($77 million)
$4.6 million/$5.3 million ($86 million)
$3.5 million ($90 million)
$2.4 million ($94 million)
$1.5 million ($97 million)
$0.9 million ($98 million)
$0.5 million ($99 million)
$100 million
Shape of Water
$5.6 million ($46 million)
$5.2 million ($54 million)
$5.4 million/$6.5 million ($65 million)
$4.3 million ($70 million)
$3.1 million ($74 million)
$2.2 million ($78 million)
$1.3 million ($80 million)
$0.8 million ($82 million)
$0.4 million ($83 million)
$85 million
Darkest Hour
$2.4 million ($48 million)
$2.2 million ($52 million)
$2.1 million/$2.6 million ($56 million)
$1.7 million ($58 million)
$1.1 million ($59 million)
$0.7 million ($60 million)
$63 million
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Spoiler
2/2-2/4
- Winchester - The House That Ghosts Built: $16 million
- Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $11 million ($41 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $10.5 million ($351 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $7.5 million ($137 million)
- The Post: $6.5 million ($68 million)
- Hostiles: $4.5 million ($18 million)
- The Shape of Water: $4.5 million ($44 million)
- Paddington 2: $4 million ($37 million)
- 12 Strong: $3.5 million ($34 million)
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $3.25 million ($42 million)
2/9-2/11
- Fifty Shades Freed: $41 million
- Peter Rabbit: $28 million
- The 15:17 to Paris: $17 million
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $8 million ($362 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $6.5 million ($146 million)
- Winchester - The House That Ghosts Built: $6.5 million ($27 million)
- The Post: $5.5 million ($76 million)
- The Shape of Water: $5 million ($52 million)
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $4 million ($47 million)
- Paddington 2: $2.5 million ($40 million)
2/16-2/19
- Black Panther: $136.5 million/$163 million
- Peter Rabbit: $18.5 million/$26.5 million ($64 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $16 million/$19 million ($79 million)
- Samson: $11 million/$13.5 million
- The 15:17 to Paris: $9 million/$10.5 million ($33 million)
- Early Man: $8 million/$10 million
- The Post: $6 million/$7.25 million ($87 million)
- The Shape of Water: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($63 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $5 million/$6.5 million ($371 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $4.5 million/$5.75 million ($155 million)
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($54 million)
2/23-2/25
- Black Panther: $53 million ($233 million)
- Game Night: $21 million
- Annihilation: $17 million
- Peter Rabbit: $11 million ($77 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $8 million ($90 million)
- Samson: $6 million ($21 million)
- Early Man: $5.5 million ($16 million)
- The 15:17 to Paris: $5 million ($40 million)
- The Post: $4.5 million ($93 million)
- The Shape of Water: $4 million ($68 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $3.5 million ($375 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $3 million ($158 million)
3/2-3/4
- Black Panther: $32.5 million ($282 million)
- Red Sparrow: $29 million
- Game Night: $13 million ($41 million)
- Annihilation: $10.5 million ($33 million)
- Death Wish: $8 million
- Peter Rabbit: $7.5 million ($87 million)
- Early Man: $4.5 million ($22 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $4 million ($96 million)
- Samson: $3 million ($26 million)
- The Post: $2.5 million ($97 million)
- The Shape of Water: $2.5 million ($72 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $2 million ($378 million)
- The 15:17 to Paris: $2 million ($43 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $1.5 million ($160 million)
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2018 $100 million DOM performer predicts
Jan-Apr
Spoiler- Black Panther: 130/375
- Ready Player One: 85/235
- A Wrinkle in Time: 55/185
- A Quiet Place: 40/130
- Rampage: 45/125
- Peter Rabbit: 30/110
- Blockers: 25/105
- Fifty Shades Freed: 40/100
May-Aug
Spoiler- Avengers - Infinity War: 230/550
- Jurassic World - Fallen Kingdom: 180/445
- The Incredibles 2: 125/385
- Deadpool 2: 130/310
- Solo - A Star Wars Story: 100/270
- Ocean's 8: 55/200
- Ant-Man and the Wasp: 70/190
- Scarface: 65/175
- Mission - Impossible 6: 50/155
- Hotel Transylvania 3: 40/130
- The Nun: 40/110
- Skyscraper: 40/105
- The Meg: 40/100
- Barbie: 20/100
Sep-Dec
Spoiler- Dr. Seuss' The Grinch: 120/455
- Mary Poppins Returns: 45/390
- Fantastic Beasts - The Crimes of Grindelwald: 80/220
- Aquaman: 40/185
- Venom: 55/150
- Ralph Breaks the Internet - Wreck-it Ralph 2: 40/145
- First Man: 30/130
- Dark Phoenix: 50/120
- Mowgli: 40/115
- Bohemian Rhapsody: 20/115
- Creed 2: 35/110
- A Star is Born: 35/105
- Holmes and Watson: 35/105
- The House With a Clock in Its Walls: 30/100
-
Spoiler
1/26-1/28
- Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $26 million
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $17 million ($338 million)
- 12 Strong: $11 million ($32 million)
- The Post: $10.5 million ($63 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $10 million ($127 million)
- Paddington 2: $7 million ($33 million)
- Den of Thieves: $7 million ($24 million)
- Star Wars - The Last Jedi: $4.5 million ($611 million)
- The Commuter: $4 million ($32 million)
- Insidious - The Last Key: $3 million ($63 million)
2/2-2/4
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $11.5 million ($357 million)
- Winchester - The House That Ghosts Built: $11 million
- Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $10.5 million ($42 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $8 million ($138 million)
- The Post: $7 million ($74 million)
- Paddington 2: $6 million ($42 million)
- 12 Strong: $5 million ($39 million)
- Den of Thieves: $3 million ($29 million)
- Star Wars - The Last Jedi: $2.5 million ($615 million)
- The Commuter: $1.5 million ($34 million)
2/9-2/11
- Fifty Shades Freed: $41 million
- Peter Rabbit: $27 million
- The 15:17 to Paris: $23 million
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $7.5 million ($367 million)
- Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $6.5 million ($52 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $6 million ($147 million)
- The Post: $5.5 million ($82 million)
- Paddington 2: $5 million ($48 million)
- 12 Strong: $3.5 million ($44 million)
- Den of Thieves: $2 million ($32 million)
2/16-2/19
- Black Panther: $127 million/$153 million
- Peter Rabbit: $18 million/$24 million ($62 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $16 million/$19 million ($78 million)
- The 15:17 to Paris: $15 million/$19 million ($51 million)
- Samson: $10 million/$12 million
- Early Man: $8 million/$10.5 million
- The Post: $5 million/$6 million ($91 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $4.5 million/$5.75 million ($376 million)
- Paddington 2: $4 million/$5.5 million ($55 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $3.75 million/$5 million ($155 million)
2/23-2/25
- Black Panther: $52 million ($214 million)
- Game Night: $21 million
- Annihilation: $17 million
- Peter Rabbit: $11 million ($76 million)
- The 14:17 to Paris: $9 million ($64 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $8 million ($88 million)
- Samson: $5.5 million ($19 million)
- Early Man: $5.5 million ($17 million)
- The Post: $3.5 million ($96 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $3 million ($380 million)
3/2-3/4
- Black Panther: $29.5 million ($260 million)
- Red Sparrow: $28.5 million
- Game Night: $13 million ($41 million)
- Annihilation: $10 million ($32 million)
- Peter Rabbit: $8.5 million ($87 million)
- Death Wish: $8 million
- The 15:17 to Paris: $5.5 million ($72 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $5 million ($96 million)
- Early Man: $4.5 million ($23 million)
- Samson: $3.5 million ($24 million)
3/9-3/11
- A Wrinkle in Time: $53 million
- Black Panther: $20 million ($293 million)
- Red Sparrow: $17 million ($55 million)
- Game Night: $8 million ($53 million)
- Gringo: $7 million
- The Hurricane Heist: $5 million
- Annihilation: $5 million ($40 million)
- Strangers - Prey at Night: $4.5 million
- Peter Rabbit: $4 million ($93 million)
- The 15:17 to Paris: $3 million ($77 million)
3/16-3/18
- A Wrinkle in Time: $32.5 million ($105 million)
- Tomb Raider: $23.5 million
- Love, Simon: $17 million
- Black Panther: $13.5 million ($315 million)
- Red Sparrow: $10 million ($71 million)
- Game Night: $5.5 million ($61 million)
- Gringo: $4 million ($14 million)
- A24 Horror #1: $3.5 million
- The Hurricane Heist: $3 million ($10 million)
- Peter Rabbit: $3 million ($98 million)
3/23-3/25
- Pacific Rim - Uprising: $24 million
- A Wrinkle in Time: $21 million ($139 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $17.5 million
- Love, Simon: $10.5 million ($35 million)
- Tomb Raider: $10 million ($41 million)
- Black Panther: $9 million ($331 million)
- Red Sparrow: $6 million ($81 million)
- Midnight Sun: $4.5 million
- Unsane: $4 million
- Game Night: $3.5 million ($67 million)
3/30-4/1
- Ready Player One: $81 million ($98 million)
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $18 million ($28 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $13 million ($161 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $10.5 million ($35 million)
- Pacific Rim - Uprising: $7.5 million ($37 million)
- Love, Simon: $6.5 million ($46 million)
- God's Not Dead 3 - A Light in Darkness: $5 million
- Acrimony: $4.5 million
- Tomb Raider: $4 million ($48 million)
- Black Panther: $4 million ($338 million)
4/6-4/8
- A Quiet Place: $36 million
- Ready Player One: $35.5 million ($163 million)
- Blockers: $23.5 million
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $10 million ($44 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $9 million ($175 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $7 million ($46 million)
- Chappadaquick: $5.5 million
- Love, Simon: $4.5 million ($53 million)
- Pacific Rim - Uprising: $4 million ($43 million)
- God's Not Dead 3 - A Light in Darkness: $2.5 million ($9 million)
4/13-4/15
- A Quiet Place: $24 million ($73 million)
- Ready Player One: $22 million ($197 million)
- Truth or Dare: $16 million
- Blockers: $15.5 million ($47 million)
- Overboard: $6.5 million
- A Wrinkle in Time: $6 million ($183 million)
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $5 million ($51 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $5 million ($53 million)
- Love, Simon: $3 million ($58 million)
- Chappadaquick: $2.5 million ($9 million)
4/20-4/22
- Rampage: $53 million
- A Quiet Place: $16 million ($97 million)
- Ready Player One: $11.5 million ($214 million)
- Blockers: $10 million ($62 million)
- Tully: $7 million
- Truth or Dare: $6.5 million ($26 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $4.5 million ($189 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $4 million ($58 million)
- Super Troopers 2: $4 million
- Paul, Apostle of Christ: $3 million ($55 million)
4/27-4/29
- Rampage: $31 million ($100 million)
- A Quiet Place: $12 million ($115 million)
- Ready Player One: $8.5 million ($227 million)
- Blockers: $8 million ($74 million)
- Traffik: $7.5 million
- Tully: $5 million ($15 million)
- Truth or Dare: $4 million ($32 million)
- A Wrinkle in Time: $3.5 million ($193 million)
- Sherlock Gnomes: $3 million ($62 million)
- Untitled Entertainment Studios Animation: $3 million
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2
-
With its glowing reviews and high marks from audiences on RT, coupled with the snowstorm this weekend, maybe Paddington 2 can have unprecedented legs. Still, even with a 5x from the 4-day, it'd only reach $75-80 million DOM.
I think it'll get to the $45-55 million DOM range. It'll have three more weekends of no competition (two with only one new wide release) for its demo and, for all we know, could stay flat or get a 5-10% increase next weekend because of backloading from the snowstorm and an surprising amount of non-playoff regulars in the NFL Divisional Round. $10-12 million 3-day makes anything more than $55-60 million DOM highly improbable, but Greatest Showman recently showed box office trends can be defied sometimes ($8 million OW at Christmas time for a film with average reviews meaning a $65-75 million DOM finish during the calendar configuration for 2017's Christmas/New Year's period).
-
Spoiler
1/19-1/21
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $15.5 million ($308 million)
- 12 Strong: $14.5 million
- The Post: $13.5 million ($43 million)
- Paddington 2: $8 million ($24 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $7.5 million ($107 million)
- The Commuter: $6 million ($23 million)
- Star Wars - The Last Jedi: $6 million ($602 million)
- I, Tonya: $5.5 million ($18 million)
- Darkest Hour: $4.5 million ($43 million)
- Insidious - The Last Key: $4.5 million ($54 million)
- Den of Thieves: $4 million
- Proud Mary: $3.5 million ($17 million)
1/26-1/28
- Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $27 million
- The Post: $11.5 million ($61 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $11 million ($323 million)
- 12 Strong: $9.5 million ($29 million)
- Paddington 2: $7 million ($33 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $6 million ($116 million)
- Darkest Hour: $5.5 million ($52 million)
- I, Tonya: $5 million ($26 million)
- The Shape of Water: $4.5 million ($38 million)
- Lady Bird: $3 million ($42 million)
2/2-2/4
- Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $12 million ($46 million)
- Winchester - The House That Ghosts Built: $11 million
- The Post: $8.5 million ($74 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $7 million ($333 million)
- Paddington 2: $5 million ($40 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $3.5 million ($121 million)
- Darkest Hour: $3.5 million ($57 million)
- I, Tonya: $3 million ($30 million)
- 12 Strong: $3 million ($34 million)
- The Shape of Water: $2.5 million ($42 million)
2/9-2/11
- Fifty Shades Freed: $41 million
- Peter Rabbit: $24.5 million
- The 15:17 to Paris: $23 million
- The Post: $7 million ($85 million)
- Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $6.5 million ($56 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $4 million ($338 million)
- Darkest Hour: $3 million ($62 million)
- Paddington 2: $3 million ($44 million)
- I, Tonya: $3 million ($35 million)
- The Shape of Water: $3 million ($47 million)
2/16-2/19
- Black Panther: $114 million/$141 million
- Peter Rabbit: $16 million/$22 million ($56 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $15 million/$19 million ($79 million)
- The 15:17 to Paris: $14.5 million/$18 million ($50 million)
- Early Man: $8 million/$10 million
- Samson: $7 million/$8.5 million
- The Post: $6 million/$7.5 million ($97 million)
- The Shape of Water: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($55 million)
- Darkest Hour: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($69 million)
- Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $3 million/$3.75 million ($62 million)
- I, Tonya: $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($40 million)
- Paddington 2: $2 million/$2.75 million ($48 million)
2/23-2/25
- Black Panther: $51 million ($212 million)
- Annihilation: $17 million
- Game Night: $16 million
- Peter Rabbit: $10.5 million ($69 million)
- The 15:17 to Paris: $9 million ($62 million)
- Fifty Shades Freed: $7.5 million ($89 million)
- Early Man: $5.5 million ($17 million)
- Samson: $4 million ($14 million)
- The Post: $4 million ($102 million)
- The Shape of Water: $2.5 million ($58 million)
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1
-
Spoiler
1/12-1/15
- The Post: $35.5 million/$45 million ($49 million)
- Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $29 million/$37 million ($293 million)
- Paddington 2: $24.5 million/$33 million
- Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $13 million/$17.5 million ($596 million)
- The Greatest Showman: $10.5 million/$14.5 million ($97 million)
- Proud Mary: $9 million/$10.5 million
- Insidious - The Last Key: $8.5 million/$10 million ($40 million)
- The Commuter: $8 million/$9.5 million
- Darkest Hour: $7 million/$8.5 million ($40 million)
- Pitch Perfect 3: $6.5 million/$7.75 million ($97 million)
- Ferdinand: $5.25 million/$7.75 million ($81 million)
- Coco: $4.5 million/$6.5 million ($200 million)
- The Shape of Water: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($29 million)
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2
Fifty Shades, Early Man and Samson might be in less theaters than either by March 2nd...
Weekend Prediction thread 5/3-5/5 Play the Derby
in Box Office Derby
Posted · Edited by mahnamahna
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