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mahnamahna

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    Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Kudos to @baumer for calling a $35 million+ 3rd weekend for Jumanji. From a $36 million 3rd weekend, I'll predict: 27.5/35.5 ($289 million), 17 ($310 million), 11.5 ($326 million), 7 ($336 million), 3.5 ($341 million), 2/2.5 ($345 million), $350-355 million DOM range. Strangely, I might actually be lowballing its 4th, 5th and 6th weekend holds.

     

    Insidious 4 is doing solidly. $50-55 million DOM is decent for the fourth installment in a dwindling franchise. 

     

    Last Jedi will finish just under Avengers. Only bad if you thought it would do what ESB and AOTC couldn't do in avoiding a 30%+ drop from the first installment of a new trilogy. 

     

    Utterly spectacular for Greatest Showman. Considering it has almost no awards buzz minus Best Original Song if "Remember Me" loses momentum, it's become a true WOM monster. Thinking 10.5/14.5 ($97 million), 6.5 ($105 million), 5 ($112 million), 3.5 ($117 million), 1.5 ($119 million), $120-125 million DOM range. 

     

    PP3 and Ferdinand both rebounded nicely. For PP3, I'm thinking 6/7.25 ($97 million), 2.5 ($100 million), 1.5 ($102 million), $105-108 million DOM range. For Ferdinand, I'm thinking 5.5/8 ($81 million), 3.5 ($85 million), 2.5 ($88 million), 1.5 ($90 million), $93-96 million DOM range. 

     

    MLK weekend should be interesting. Jumanji, Paddington 2 and The Post could all be in a three-way race for 1st place. I expect all three to do $25 million+ for the 4-day, with Last Jedi bringing in $15 million+ at a distant fourth place. 

     

     

     

     

     

    • Like 3

    Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle | December 22 2017 | Special showings for Amazon Prime members on December 8

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    With a $50 million+ 3-day, I think Jumanji could do this, given the fairly weak family tentpole competition from now until Feb 16. Paddington 2 and Peter Rabbit are the only major releases targeting at least part of its demo for the next 6 weeks. 

     

    $29.5 million ($230 million)

    $18 million/$24.5 million ($260 million)

    $10 million ($272 million)

    $7.5 million ($283 million)

    $4 million ($289 million)

    $2 million ($292 million)

    $1 million ($293 million)

    $297 million DOM 

     

    Of course, it could have sub-40% drops its 3rd and 4th weekends, depending on its WOM. It could potentially glide past Thor 3 DOM if it gets $32-33 million 3rd weekend and $21-22 million 4th weekend on its way to a $27-30 million 4-day. At this point, $250-260 million is the floor since even 45-50% drops the rest of its run get it there. 

     

    $32 million ($235 million) 

    $20.5 million/$27 million ($269 million) 

    $11.5 million ($283 million) 

    $8.5 million ($294 million) 

    $5 million ($301 million) 

    $2.5 million ($305 million) 

    $1 million ($307 million)

    $311 million DOM 

    • Like 1

    Weekend Prediction thread 5/3-5/5 Play the Derby

    in Box Office Derby

    Posted · Edited by mahnamahna

    Spoiler

    1/5-1/7

    1. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $33 million ($241 million)
    2. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $22.5 million ($571 million)
    3. Insidious - The Last Key: $12 million
    4. The Greatest Showman: $10.5 million ($73 million) 
    5. Pitch Perfect 3: $9.5 million ($85 million) 
    6. Ferdinand: $7 million ($69 million) 
    7. Molly's Game: $5.5 million ($12 million) 
    8. Coco: $4.5 million ($190 million) 
    9. Darkest Hour: $3.5 million ($25 million) 
    10. All the Money in the World: $3 million ($19 million)

    1/12-1/15

    1. The Post: $36 million/$45 million ($48 million)
    2. Paddington 2: $25.5 million/$34 million
    3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $22 million/$29 million ($278 million) 
    4. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $13 million/$17.5 million ($594 million) 
    5. Proud Mary: $10.5 million/$12.5 million
    6. The Greatest Showman: $7.5 million/$10.5 million ($87 million) 
    7. The Shape of Water: $6.5 million/$8 million ($34 million) 
    8. The Commuter: $5.5 million/$6.5 million 
    9. Pitch Perfect 3: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($93 million) 
    10. Ferdinand: $4 million/$6 million ($76 million) 

    1/19-1/21

    1. The Post: $23 million ($78 million)
    2. Paddington 2: $17 million ($55 million)
    3. 12 Strong: $14 million 
    4. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $12 million ($293 million) 
    5. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $7.5 million ($604 million) 
    6. The Shape of Water: $5.5 million ($41 million) 
    7. Phantom Thread: $5 million ($7 million) 
    8. Den of Thieves: $4 million 
    9. The Greatest Showman: $4 million ($92 million) 
    10. Proud Mary: $3 million ($17 million) 

    1/26-1/28

    1. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $24.5 million
    2. The Post: $17.5 million ($104 million) 
    3. Paddington 2: $14.5 million ($73 million) 
    4. 12 Strong: $9 million ($28 million) 
    5. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $8 million ($304 million) 
    6. The Shape of Water: $5 million ($48 million) 
    7. Phantom Thread: $4 million ($13 million) 
    8. The Greatest Showman: $3 million ($96 million) 
    9. Lady Bird: $2.5 million ($40 million) 
    10. Den of Thieves: $2 million ($7 million) 

    2/2-2/4

    1. The Post: $11 million ($121 million) 
    2. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $10.5 million ($41 million) 
    3. Paddington 2: $9.5 million ($85 million) 
    4. Winchester - The House That Ghosts Built: $8.5 million 
    5. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $4 million ($309 million) 
    6. 12 Strong: $3.5 million ($33 million) 
    7. The Shape of Water: $3 million ($53 million) 
    8. Phantom Thread: $2.5 million ($17 million) 
    9. The Greatest Showman: $2 million ($99 million) 
    10. Lady Bird: $1.5 million ($42 million) 

    2/9-2/11

    1. Fifty Shades Freed: $41.5 million 
    2. The 15:17 to Paris: $30.5 million
    3. Peter Rabbit: $19 million 
    4. The Post: $8 million ($133 million) 
    5. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $6.5 million ($51 million) 
    6. Paddington 2: $5.5 million ($92 million) 
    7. Winchester - The House That Ghosts Built: $3 million ($13 million) 
    8. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $2 million ($312 million) 
    9. The Shape of Water: $2 million ($56 million) 
    10. 12 Strong: $2 million ($36 million) 

    2/16-2/19

    1. Black Panther: $102 million/$125 million 
    2. The 15:17 to Paris: $19 million/$24 million ($66 million) 
    3. Fifty Shades Freed: $15 million/$18.5 million ($77 million) 
    4. Peter Rabbit: $13 million/$17 million ($41 million) 
    5. Early Man: $8 million/$10 million 
    6. The Post: $6.5 million/$8 million ($145 million) 
    7. Samson: $5.5 million/$6.5 million 
    8. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $3 million/$3.5 million ($57 million) 
    9. Paddington 2: $3 million/$4.25 million ($98 million) 
    10. The Shape of Water: $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($62 million) 

    2/23-2/25

    1. Black Panther: $49.5 million ($190 million)
    2. Annihilation: $12 million 
    3. Game Night: $10 million 
    4. The 15:17 to Paris: $9.5 million ($79 million) 
    5. Fifty Shades Freed: $8 million ($88 million) 
    6. Peter Rabbit: $7 million ($50 million) 
    7. Early Man: $5.5 million ($17 million) 
    8. The War With Grandpa: $4.5 million 
    9. The Post: $4 million ($150 million) 
    10. Samson: $3 million ($11 million) 

    3/2-3/4

    1. Black Panther: $30 million ($226 million) 
    2. Red Sparrow: $27 million
    3. Death Wish: $11 million 
    4. Annihilation: $6 million ($22 million) 
    5. Game Night: $5.5 million ($18 million) 
    6. The 15:17 to Paris: $5 million ($87 million) 
    7. Peter Rabbit: $4.5 million ($56 million) 
    8. Fifty Shades Freed: $4.5 million ($95 million) 
    9. Early Man: $4 million ($22 million) 
    10. The Post: $3 million ($155 million) 

    3/9-3/11

    1. A Wrinkle in Time: $34 million 
    2. Black Panther: $20.5 million ($259 million) 
    3. Red Sparrow: $13 million ($48 million) 
    4. Gringo: $6 million 
    5. The Upside: $5.5 million 
    6. Death Wish: $4 million ($18 million) 
    7. The Hurricane Heist: $4 million 
    8. Game Night: $3 million ($23 million) 
    9. Peter Rabbit: $2.5 million ($60 million) 
    10. The 15:17 to Paris: $2.5 million ($91 million)

    3/16-3/18

    1. Tomb Raider: $32 million 
    2. A Wrinkle in Time: $21.5 million ($68 million) 
    3. Love, Simon: $15 million 
    4. Black Panther: $12 million ($279 million) 
    5. Red Sparrow: $8 million ($61 million) 
    6. Gringo: $3.5 million ($12 million) 
    7. The Upside: $3.5 million ($12 million) 
    8. Death Wish: $2.5 million ($22 million) 
    9. The Hurricane Heist: $2.5 million ($8 million) 
    10. Game Night: $2 million ($26 million) 

    3/23-3/25

    1. Pacific Rim Uprising: $25 million 
    2. Sherlock Gnomes: $15.5 million 
    3. Tomb Raider: $13 million ($54 million) 
    4. A Wrinkle in Time: $12.5 million ($88 million) 
    5. Love, Simon: $8.5 million ($29 million) 
    6. Black Panther: $8 million ($293 million) 
    7. Midnight Sun: $6.5 million 
    8. Red Sparrow: $5 million ($69 million) 
    9. Unsane: $3.5 million 
    10. The Upside: $2.5 million ($16 million) 

    3/30-4/1

    1. Ready Player One: $94 million 
    2. Paul, Apostle of Christ: $17 million ($25 million) 
    3. Sherlock Gnomes: $9.5 million ($32 million) 
    4. A Wrinkle in Time: $8.5 million ($102 million) 
    5. Pacific Rim Uprising: $7 million ($37 million) 
    6. God's Not Dead 3: $5.5 million 
    7. Tomb Raider: $5 million ($62 million) 
    8. Love, Simon: $4 million ($36 million) 
    9. Black Panther: $3.5 million ($299 million) 
    10. Red Sparrow: $3 million ($74 million) 

    4/6-4/8

    1. Ready Player One: $42.5 million ($160 million) 
    2. Blockers: $24 million 
    3. A Quiet Place: $17.5 million 
    4. Paul, Apostle of Christ: $10 million ($40 million) 
    5. Sherlock Gnomes: $5.5 million ($40 million) 
    6. A Wrinkle in Time: $4.5 million ($109 million) 
    7. Pacific Rim Uprising: $4 million ($43 million) 
    8. Chappadaquick: $3.5 million 
    9. Tomb Raider: $3 million ($67 million) 
    10. God's Not Dead 3: $3 million ($10 million) 

    4/13-4/15

    1. New Mutants: $54.5 million 
    2. Ready Player One: $25 million ($199 million) 
    3. Blockers: $15 million ($46 million) 
    4. A Quiet Place: $7 million ($29 million) 
    5. Paul, Apostle of Christ: $6.5 million ($50 million) 
    6. Sherlock Gnomes: $4 million ($45 million) 
    7. A Wrinkle in Time: $3 million ($113 million) 
    8. Pacific Rim Uprising: $2 million ($46 million) 
    9. Tomb Raider: $2 million ($70 million) 
    10. Chappadaquick: $2 million ($6 million) 

    4/20-4/22

    1. Rampage: $38 million 
    2. New Mutants: $22.5 million ($89 million) 
    3. Ready Player One: $12 million ($218 million) 
    4. Blockers: $9 million ($60 million) 
    5. Overboard: $7.5 million 
    6. Super Troopers: $7 million 
    7. Paul, Apostle of Christ: $4 million ($56 million) 
    8. A Quiet Place: $3.5 million ($34 million) 
    9. Tully: $3 million 
    10. Sherlock Gnomes: $3 million ($49 million) 

    4/27-4/29

    1. Truth or Dare: $30.5 million
    2. Rampage: $24 million ($75 million) 
    3. New Mutants: $13.5 million ($109 million) 
    4. Ready Player One: $9 million ($232 million) 
    5. Blockers: $6.5 million ($70 million) 
    6. Traffik: $6 million 
    7. Overboard: $5 million  ($15 million) 
    8. Super Troopers 2: $4.5 million ($14 million) 
    9. Paul, Apostle of Christ: $3 million ($60 million) 
    10. Sherlock Gnomes: $2 million ($51 million) 

     

    Top 15 DOM for Jan-Apr

    1. Black Panther: $310 million 
    2. Ready Player One: $245 million
    3. New Mutants: $135 million
    4. A Wrinkle in Time: $120 million 
    5. Paddington 2: $105 million 
    6. Rampage: $100 million 
    7. Fifty Shades Freed: $100 million
    8. The 15:17 to Paris: $95 million 
    9. Blockers: $85 million
    10. Red Sparrow: $80 million
    11. Tomb Raider: $75 million 
    12. Peter Rabbit: $65 million
    13. Paul, Apostle of Christ: $65 million
    14. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $65 million 
    15. Truth or Dare: $60 million 

    Runner-up - Sherlock Gnomes at $50-55 million DOM 

     

     

     

    • Like 3

    Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle | December 22 2017 | Special showings for Amazon Prime members on December 8

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, BK007 said:

    Why are people so quick to say this will make it to $250m (some even at $300m now)?

     

    I don't think it will have the staying power to get that far, but it should get to $200m and that's really good.

    It doesn't need all that great of legs to get to $250 million DOM

     

    $43 million/$59 million ($178 million)

    $23.5 million ($210 million)

    $13 million/$17.5 million ($232 million)

    $7 million ($240 million)

    $4 million ($246 million)

    $2 million ($249 million)

    $1 million ($250 million)

     

    While I agree it's not a lock, even the usual post-holidays holds get it to $235 million+ DOM. 

     

    Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Jumanji is still doing solid. Thinking 13.6/14.2/16.5/17.8/10.7/16.1 - $177.9 million after 13 days. $240-270 million DOM is fantastic for Sony, giving them a new franchise beyond Spidey and Hotel Transylvania. While IT, Get Out and Wonder Woman were bigger surprise hits, Jumanji definitely ranks high considering many were predicting $90-110 million DOM. 

     

    TLJ did fine enough. $640-670 million DOM is still likely.

     

    PP3 rebounded nicely. Thinking 5.5/5.8/7.1/7.9/4.1/5.7 - $73.7 million after 11 days. If it holds a little better than I expect, it could get to $75-77 million DOM, putting it in the $95-100 million DOM range. 

     

     

     

    • Like 2

    4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Just now, LonePirate said:

     

    Poppins hands down. Bumblebee will be DOA. Engines is an unknown, IMO. The others are tiresome extensions we do not need but will outpace Bumblebee.

    Agreed. 

     

    Nov-Dec 2018 actually looks quite strong. I think Bumblebee will be a bomb, Dark Phoenix a major disappointment, Spidey not as strong as people think since Aquaman and Poppins will split both the tentpole and family audiences. I could see $120-150 million DOM, depending on WOM, though. 

     

    Grinch and Poppins could easily be 2 of the top 3 films next year IMO. I think they have the highest ceiling of any major films being released other than Black Panther. 

     

    Spoiler
    1. Dr. Seuss' The Grinch: $420 million 
    2. Mary Poppins Returns: $375 million  
    3. Aquaman: $225 million 
    4. Fantastic Beasts - The Crimes of Grindelwald: $220 million 
    5. Ralph Breaks the Internet - Wreck-it Ralph 2: $140 million 
    6. Dark Phoenix: $115 million 
    7. Spider-Man - Into the Spider-Verse: $110 million 
    8. Bohemian Rhapsody: $105 million 
    9. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: $85 million 
    10. Holmes and Watson: $70 million 
    11. Widows: $65 million 
    12. Mortal Engines: $60 million 
    13. Bumblebee: $55 million 
    14. Untitled Robert Zemeckis Project: $50 million
    15. Mary, Queen of Scots: $35 million  

     

     

    • Like 1

    4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by mahnamahna

    $19 million is excellent for Jumanji - I think $200 million DOM is a done deal, $225 million DOM fairly likely, $250 million DOM most likely, $275 million certainly plausible depending on Tues-Thurs (would need $15.5-16 on Wed IMO to make this reachable), $300 million a longshot, but a $65 million+ 4-day and sub-40% 3rd weekend/4th weekend drops could change that quickly. 

     

    TLJ did fine enough, but if it ends up short of Jurassic World, that would be slightly disappointing yet not unexpected since Star Wars has a history of second parts in the trilogies declining by 25-35% from the first film, only to see the finale increase from the second, but wind up below the first. $650-670 million DOM for TLJ likely means Episode IX will end up in the $760-810 million DOM range IMO. 

     

    Greatest Showman is holding on strong. $70-75 million DOM wouldn't be too bad for a non-Oscar contender targeting families already being reached by TLJ, Jumanji, Wonder, Coco and Ferdinand. 

     

    Pitch Perfect 3 held better than expected. Unless it drops 40%+ next weekend, it should be able to crawl just above PP2's OW, which is still a massive disappointment, but the fairly low budget makes this a slight success through cable airings on Freeform or USA during a Pitch Perfect marathon a year or so from now.  

     

    Ferdinand is underperforming, but it was a bad idea to release a PG-rated adaptation of a preschool picture book when there are 3-5 other family-friendly films older adults would enjoy more. I think Fox should have moved it to April or May 2018 and edited it to get a G rating like Blue Sky's other successful films of late (3 of their last 4 to reach $100 million DOM were rated G). 

     

    Coco and Wonder are doing well. Coco should likely cross the $200 million DOM mark while Wonder should reach $130-135 million DOM. 

    • Like 1

    Weekend Prediction thread 5/3-5/5 Play the Derby

    in Box Office Derby

    Posted

    Spoiler

    12/29-1/1

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $65.5 million/$90 million ($552 million) 
    2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $42.5 million/$56.5 million ($179 million)
    3. The Greatest Showman: $13.5 million/$18 million ($49 million) 
    4. Ferdinand: $11.5 million/$16 million ($56 million) 
    5. Pitch Perfect 3: $11 million/$14.5 million ($50 million) 
    6. Coco: $10.5 million/$14.5 million ($188 million) 
    7. Darkest Hour: $5.5 million/$7.25 million ($21 million) 
    8. The Shape of Water: $4.5 million/$6 million ($20 million) 
    9. Wonder: $3 million/$4 million ($123 million) 
    10. Downsizing: $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($13 million) 
    11. Father Figures: $2 million/$2.5 million ($8 million) 
    12. Lady Bird: $1.5 million/$2 million ($31 million) 
    13. Call Me By Your Name: $1.5 million/$2 million ($6 million) 
    14. Thor - Ragnorak: $1.25 million/$2 million ($313 million) 
    15. Justice League: $1.25 million/$2 million ($227 million)

    1/5-1/7

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $31 million ($597 million) 
    2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $23.5 million ($214 million) 
    3. Insidious - The Last Key: $13 million 
    4. The Greatest Showman: $7.5 million ($60 million) 
    5. Molly's Game: $7 million ($8 million) 
    6. Coco: $6.5 million ($197 million) 
    7. Ferdinand: $6 million ($65 million) 
    8. The Shape of Water: $5.5 million ($28 million) 
    9. Pitch Perfect 3: $4.5 million ($57 million) 
    10. Darkest Hour: $4 million ($27 million) 

    1/12-1/15

    1. The Post: $35.5 million/$44 million ($51 million) 
    2. Paddington 2: $25.5 million/$34 million 
    3. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $17.5 million/$24 million ($630 million) 
    4. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $13 million/$17.5 million ($237 million) 
    5. Proud Mary: $10.5 million/$12 million 
    6. The Shape of Water: $8 million/$10 million ($41 million) 
    7. The Commuter: $6 million/$7.25 million
    8. Coco: $4 million/$6 million ($204 million) 
    9. The Greatest Showman: $4 million/$5.5 million ($67 million) 
    10. Ferdinand: $3.5 million/$5.25 million ($71 million) 

    1/19-1/21

    1. The Post: $23.5 million ($81 million) 
    2. Paddington 2: $17 million ($55 million) 
    3. 12 Strong: $15.5 million
    4. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $10 million ($643 million) 
    5. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $7 million ($246 million) 
    6. The Shape of Water: $5.5 million ($48 million) 
    7. Den of Thieves: $4 million 
    8. Proud Mary: $3.5 million ($17 million) 
    9. Coco: $2.5 million ($207 million) 
    10. The Commuter: $2 million ($10 million) 

    1/26-1/28

    1. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $24.5 million
    2. The Post: $17.5 million ($107 million) 
    3. Paddington 2: $14.5 million ($73 million) 
    4. 12 Strong: $9.5 million ($29 million) 
    5. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $6.5 million ($653 million) 
    6. The Shape of Water: $5 million ($55 million)
    7. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $4.5 million ($252 million) 
    8. Den of Thieves: $2 million ($7 million) 
    9. Coco: $1.5 million ($209 million) 
    10. Proud Mary: $1.5 million ($19 million) 

    2/2-2/4

    1. The Post: $11 million ($123 million) 
    2. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $10.5 million ($40 million) 
    3. Paddington 2: $9.5 million ($85 million) 
    4. Winchester - The House That Ghosts Built: $7 million 
    5. 12 Strong: $4.5 million ($36 million) 
    6. The Shape of Water: $3.5 million ($60 million) 
    7. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $3 million ($658 million) 
    8. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $2 million ($255 million) 
    9. Lady Bird: $1.5 million ($41 million) 
    10. Coco: $1 million ($210 million) 

    2/9-2/11

    1. Fifty Shades Freed: $41.5 million
    2. The 15:17 to Paris: $28 million 
    3. Peter Rabbit: $20.5 million 
    4. The Post: $8 million ($135 million) 
    5. Paddington 2: $5.5 million ($92 million) 
    6. The Shape of Water: $3 million ($64 million) 
    7. Winchester - The House That Ghosts Built: $2.5 million ($11 million) 
    8. 12 Strong: $2 million ($39 million) 
    9. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $1.5 million ($660 million) 
    10. Lady Bird: $1.5 million ($43 million) 

    2/16-2/19

    1. Black Panther: $113 million/$137 million
    2. The 15:17 to Paris: $20.5 million/$25.5 million ($65 million) 
    3. Fifty Shades Freed: $16 million/$19.5 million ($77 million) 
    4. Peter Rabbit: $14.5 million/$19 million ($45 million) 
    5. Early Man: $8.5 million/$11 million 
    6. The Post: $6.5 million/$8 million ($148 million) 
    7. Paddington 2: $4 million/$5 million ($99 million) 
    8. The Shape of Water: $4 million/$4.75 million ($72 million) 
    9. Samson: $3.5 million/$4.25 million 
    10. Lady Bird: $1.75 million/$2.25 million ($47 million) 

    2/23-2/25

    1. Black Panther: $55 million ($208 million) 
    2. Annihilation: $12 million 
    3. The 15:17 to Paris: $10.5 million ($78 million) 
    4. Peter Rabbit: $8 million ($54 million) 
    5. Fifty Shades Freed: $7.5 million ($87 million) 
    6. Game Night: $7 million 
    7. Early Man: $5 million ($17 million) 
    8. The Post: $4.5 million ($154 million) 
    9. The War With Grandpa: $3.5 million
    10. The Shape of Water: $2.5 million ($75 million) 

    3/2-3/4

    1. Black Panther: $33.5 million ($260 million) 
    2. Red Sparrow: $26 million
    3. Alpha: $10.5 million 
    4. The 15:17 to Paris: $6 million ($87 million) 
    5. Peter Rabbit: $5.5 million ($61 million) 
    6. Death Wish: $5 million 
    7. Fifty Shades Freed: $4.5 million ($94 million) 
    8. Early Man: $4 million ($22 million) 
    9. Annihilation: $4 million ($18 million) 
    10. The Post: $3 million ($159 million) 

     

     

     

    • Like 2

    4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by mahnamahna

    Jumanji

    9 ($37.5 million 3-day)

    18.3 ($55.8 million 4-day/$72.6 million running total) 

    19.1 

    14.6

    14.8 ($121.1 million 9-day) 

    16.4

    17.1

    9.6 ($43.1 million 3-day)

    13.4 ($56.5 million 4-day/$177.6 million running total)

     

    $22.5 million ($210 million)

    $12 million/$16.5 million ($231 million)

    $7 million ($240 million)

    $4 million ($246 million)

    $2 million ($249 million)

    $254 million DOM 

     

     Of course, it could hit $20-20.5 million for today and tomorrow, remaining around $15-16 million for Wed-Thurs, then $17-19 million for Fri-Sat and $10-11 million on Sun. In which case, $275 million+ DOM might be in play. 

    • Like 2

    4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    49 minutes ago, The Shape of Pasta said:

    I think we’re gonna see some glorious recovery this coming week - Pitch Perfect 3 was naturally a bit frontloaded, but I can see something like this:

     

    The Last Jedi - 66m

    Jumanji - 35m

    Pitch Perfect 3 - 17m

    Greatest Showman - 11m

    Ferdinand - 10.3m

    Coco - 7.5m

    All The Money in The World - 6.7m

    Downsizing - 6m

    Darkest Hour - 5.4m

    The Shape of Water - 3.9m

    I'd think Jumanji will perform slightly stronger than that. Its WOM has steadily grown over the last week and most everyone who wants to see TLJ will have seen it by 12/26, so that leaves room for Jumanji to grow and become a surprise blockbuster hit like NatM. 

     

    $38 million/$51 million is my guess ($159 million DOM by 1/1) 

    Best films of 2017!

    in Lights, Camera, Favorites!

    Posted

    A+

    Logan

    Get Out

    Captain Underpants - The First Epic Movie 

     

    A

    Spider-Man - Homecoming

    Star Wars - The Last Jedi 

    Thor - Ragnorak 

     

    A-

    Split

    Wonder Woman

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 

    The Big Sick 

     

    B+

    The Case for Christ 

    The LEGO Batman Movie  

    Coco

    Dunkirk 

     

    B

    Cars 3

    Logan Lucky

    A Dog's Purpose

     

    B-

    Monster Trucks

    Despicable Me 3

     

    C+

    Justice League 

    Kong - Skull Island

     

    C

    The Boss Baby

     

    C-

    Going in Style 

     

    D+

    Beauty & the Beast 

     

    F

    Wish Upon 

     

    Still to See

    Spoiler
    1. IT
    2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle 
    3. War for the Planet of the Apes
    4. The Post
    5. Wonder
    6. Baby Driver
    7. Murder on the Orient Express 
    8. Daddy's Home 2
    9. The Shape of Water 
    10. Lady Bird 
    11. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri 
    12. Darkest Hour 
    13. 47 Meters Down
    14. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
    15. The Star
    16. Wind River
    17. Gifted
    18. Victoria and Abdul
    19. Paris Can Wait
    20. The Zookeeper's Wife
    21. Phantom Thread
    22. The Florida Project 
    23. I, Tonya
    24. Goodbye Christopher Robin
    25. The Breadwinner
    26. Mary & the Witch's Flower
    27. Ferdinand
    28. The Greatest Showman
    29. Pitch Perfect 3
    30. All the Money in the World 

     

     

     

    Weekend Prediction thread 5/3-5/5 Play the Derby

    in Box Office Derby

    Posted

    Spoiler

    12/29-1/1

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $55 million/$76 million ($544 million)
    2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $39 million/$51 million ($146 million)
    3. Pitch Perfect 3: $20 million/$27 million ($84 million)
    4. The Greatest Showman: $13 million/$17.5 million ($50 million)
    5. Ferdinand: $11.5 million/$16.5 million ($60 million) 
    6. Coco: $10.5 million/$14.5 million ($193 million)
    7. Downsizing: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($20 million) 
    8. Wonder: $4 million/$5.5 million ($128 million) 
    9. Darkest Hour: $3.5 million/$5 million ($17 million)
    10. The Shape of Water: $3.25 million/$5 million ($17 million)

    1/5-1/7

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $27 million ($586 million) 
    2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $21 million ($175 million)
    3. Insidious - The Last Key: $13.5 million 
    4. Pitch Perfect 3: $9 million ($98 million) 
    5. The Greatest Showman: $8 million ($62 million) 
    6. Coco: $6.5 million ($203 million) 
    7. Ferdinand: $6 million ($69 million) 
    8. Molly's Game: $5 million ($7 million) 
    9. The Shape of Water: $3.5 million ($22 million) 
    10. Wonder: $2.5 million ($132 million) 

    1/12-1/15

    1. The Post: $34 million/$47 million ($52 million) 
    2. Paddington 2: $25.5 million/$33.5 million 
    3. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $17 million/$23.5 million ($618 million) 
    4. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $12.5 million/$16.5 million ($196 million)
    5. Proud Mary: $11 million/$13.5 million 
    6. The Commuter: $7.5 million/$9.5 million 
    7. The Shape of Water: $7 million/$9.5 million ($34 million) 
    8. The Greatest Showman: $4.5 million/$6.5 million ($70 million) 
    9. Insidious - The Last Key: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($21 million) 
    10. Pitch Perfect 3: $4 million/$5 million ($105 million) 
    11. Coco: $3.75 million/$5.5 million ($210 million) 
    12. Ferdinand: $3 million/$4.5 million ($74 million)

    1/19-1/21

    1. The Post: $23 million ($82 million)
    2. Paddington 2: $17 million ($54 million) 
    3. 12 Strong: $15 million 
    4. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $9.5 million ($630 million) 
    5. The Shape of Water: $9 million ($46 million) 
    6. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $7 million ($205 million) 
    7. Den of Thieves: $4.5 million 
    8. Proud Mary: $4 million ($18 million) 
    9. The Commuter: $3 million ($13 million) 
    10. Lady Bird: $3 million ($41 million) 

    1/26-1/28

    1. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $24.5 million 
    2. The Post: $17.5 million ($108 million) 
    3. Paddington 2: $14.5 million ($73 million) 
    4. The Shape of Water: $10.5 million ($62 million) 
    5. 12 Strong: $9 million ($28 million) 
    6. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $7 million ($641 million) 
    7. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $4.5 million ($212 million)  
    8. Lady Bird: $4 million ($47 million) 
    9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $2.5 million ($39 million) 
    10. Den of Thieves: $2 million ($7 million) 

    2/2-2/4

    1. The Post: $11 million ($124 million) 
    2. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $10 million ($40 million) 
    3. Paddington 2: $9 million ($85 million) 
    4. The Shape of Water: $7 million ($73 million) 
    5. Winchester - The House That Ghosts Built: $6.5 million 
    6. 12 Strong: $4 million ($34 million) 
    7. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $3.5 million ($646 million) 
    8. Lady Bird: $3 million ($51 million) 
    9. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $2 million ($215 million) 
    10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $1.5 million ($41 million) 

    2/9-2/11

    1. Fifty Shades Freed: $41 million 
    2. The 15:17 to Paris: $33.5 million 
    3. Peter Rabbit: $23.5 million 
    4. The Post: $8 million ($136 million) 
    5. Paddington 2: $5.5 million ($92 million) 
    6. The Shape of Water: $5 million ($80 million) 
    7. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $5 million ($48 million) 
    8. Winchester - The House That Ghosts Built: $2.5 million ($11 million) 
    9. 12 Strong: $2.5 million ($38 million) 
    10. Lady Bird: $2.5 million ($55 million) 

    2/16-2/19

    1. Black Panther: $136 million/$167 million 
    2. The 15:17 to Paris: $20 million/$25.5 million ($70 million) 
    3. Peter Rabbit: $16.5 million/$22.5 million ($52 million) 
    4. Fifty Shades Freed: $15.5 million/$19.5 million ($76 million) 
    5. Early Man: $7.5 million/$10 million 
    6. The Post: $7 million/$9 million ($150 million) 
    7. The Shape of Water: $4 million/$5.25 million ($88 million) 
    8. Samson: $3.5 million/$4.5 million 
    9. Paddington 2: $3 million/$4.25 million ($97 million) 
    10. Lady Bird: $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($60 million) 

     

     

    • Like 1

    Thursday #s: TLJ 17.8M, Jumanji 7.55M, TGS 2.1M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Jumanji is performing solidly. Given the slightly divisive nature of TLJ, Greatest Showman's small 2-day opening and the other family films losing screens come today, I think it's on track for a $150 million+ DOM run. It depends on its jumps the next two weekends. Since most kids were in school this last week, it might see a bigger Fri/Sat than expected. 

     

    $2 million

    $7.2 million

    $7.6 million

    $11.2 million

    $12.1 million

    $6 million

    $12.8 million ($29.3 million 3-day/$42.1 million 4-day/$58.9 million 6-day) 

    $12.4 million 

    $8.3 million

    $8.6 million 

    $11.7 million ($100.9 million 10-day) 

    $13.1 million 

    $6.9 million

    $12.0 million ($31.7 million 3-day/$43.7 million 4-day/$132.9 million 13-day) 

    • Like 2

    Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Spoiler

    Top 25 of 2018

     

    Making a bold predict with Grinch

    1. Avengers - Infinity War: $540 million 
    2. How the Grinch Stole Christmas: $470 million 
    3. Jurassic World - Fallen Kingdom: $445 million
    4. The Incredibles 2: $420 million
    5. Black Panther: $355 million 
    6. Deadpool 2: $325 million 
    7. Solo - A Star Wars Story: $305 million 
    8. Ready Player One: $270 million 
    9. Mary Poppins Returns: $245 million 
    10. Ocean's 8: $225 million 
    11. Fantastic Beasts 2: $220 million 
    12. Aquaman: $215 million 
    13. Ant-Man and the Wasp: $205 million 
    14. Mission Impossible 6: $165 million 
    15. Scarface: $155 million 
    16. Venom: $150 million  
    17. Ralph Breaks the Internet: $145 million 
    18. First Man: $140 million 
    19. New Mutants: $130 million 
    20. Dark Phoenix: $125 million 
    21. Barbie: $115 million 
    22. The Meg: $110 million 
    23. Spider-Man - Into the Spidey-Verse: $110 million 
    24. A Star is Born: $105 million 
    25. A Wrinkle in Time: $100 million 

     

    Weekend Prediction thread 5/3-5/5 Play the Derby

    in Box Office Derby

    Posted

    Spoiler

    12/22-12/25

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $113 million/$154 million ($490 million) 
    2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $27 million/$41 million ($57 million) 
    3. Pitch Perfect 3: $25.5 million/$36 million 
    4. The Greatest Showman: $16.5 million/$23.5 million ($34 million)
    5. Ferdinand: $14 million/$18.5 million ($45 million) 
    6. Coco: $10 million/$13.5 million ($174 million) 
    7. The Shape of Water: $7.5 million/$10 million ($17 million) 
    8. Downsizing: $6.5 million/$8.5 million 
    9. Wonder: $6 million/$8.5 million ($123 million) 
    10. Father Figures: $4.5 million/$5.5 million 
    11. The Disaster Artist: $4 million/$5.5 million ($21 million) 
    12. Lady Bird: $3 million/$4.5 million ($32 million) 
    13. Daddy's Home 2: $2 million/$3 million ($101 million) 
    14. Thor - Ragnorak: $2 million/$3 million ($311 million) 
    15. Justice League: $2 million/$3 million ($225 million) 

    12/29-1/1

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $69 million/$94 million ($653 million) 
    2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $30 million/$42 million ($129 million) 
    3. Pitch Perfect 3: $19 million/$25.5 million ($80 million) 
    4. The Greatest Showman: $16 million/$22.5 million ($72 million) 
    5. Ferdinand: $15 million/$18.5 million ($78 million) 
    6. Coco: $12 million/$15 million ($201 million) 
    7. The Shape of Water: $9 million/$12 million ($38 million) 
    8. Wonder: $7 million/$9.5 million ($140 million) 
    9. Downsizing: $5 million/$6.5 million ($20 million) 
    10. The Disaster Artist: $4.5 million/$5.75 million ($31 million)
    11. Lady Bird: $3.25 million/$4.5 million ($40 million) 
    12. Father Figures: $3 million/$4 million ($12 million) 
    13. Thor - Ragnorak: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($315 million)
    14. Justice League: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($229 million)
    15. Daddy's Home 2: $1.25 million/$1.75 million ($104 million)

    1/5-1/7

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $34 million ($704 million) 
    2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $15.5 million ($150 million) 
    3. Insidious - The Last Key: $14.5 million
    4. Pitch Perfect 3: $9 million ($93 million) 
    5. Ferdinand: $7.5 million ($88 million) 
    6. Coco: $6.5 million ($209 million) 
    7. Molly's Game: $6 million ($8 million) 
    8. The Shape of Water: $5 million ($45 million) 
    9. Wonder: $4 million ($145 million) 
    10. The Disaster Artist: $2.5 million ($35 million) 

    1/12-1/15

    1. The Post: $32.5 million/$41 million ($46 million) 
    2. Paddington 2: $25 million/$33.5 million 
    3. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $19 million/$26 million ($740 million) 
    4. The Shape of Water: $12.5 million/$15.5 million ($63 million) 
    5. Proud Mary: $10.5 million/$13 million
    6. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $8 million/$11 million ($164 million) 
    7. The Commuter: $7.5 million/$9 million 
    8. Coco: $4 million/$6 million ($216 million) 
    9. Ferdinand: $4 million/$6 million ($95 million) 
    10. Pitch Perfect 3: $4 million/$5 million ($100 million) 
    11. The Disaster Artist: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($42 million) 
    12. Wonder: $3 million/$4 million ($150 million) 

    1/19-1/21

    1. The Post: $22 million ($74 million) 
    2. Paddington 2: $15.5 million ($52 million) 
    3. 12 Strong: $13.5 million 
    4. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $10.5 million ($753 million) 
    5. The Shape of Water: $8 million ($73 million) 
    6. Den of Thieves: $5.5 million 
    7. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $4.5 million ($170 million) 
    8. Proud Mary: $4 million ($18 million) 
    9. Coco: $3 million ($220 million) 
    10. The Commuter: $3 million ($13 million) 
    11. The Disaster Artist: $2.5 million ($45 million) 
    12. Ferdinand: $2.5 million ($98 million) 

    1/26-1/28

    1. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $24 million 
    2. The Post: $16.5 million ($98 million) 
    3. Paddington 2: $12.5 million ($68 million) 
    4. The Shape of Water: $8 million ($85 million) 
    5. 12 Strong: $7.5 million ($24 million) 
    6. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $6.5 million ($763 million) 
    7. Lady Bird: $3.5 million ($56 million) 
    8. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $3 million ($174 million) 
    9. The Disaster Artist: $3 million ($49 million) 
    10. Den of Thieves: $2.5 million ($10 million) 
    11. Coco: $2 million ($222 million) 
    12. Ferdinand: $1.5 million ($100 million) 

    2/2-2/4

    1. Cloverfield 3: $22 million 
    2. The Post: $11 million ($115 million) 
    3. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $10.5 million ($40 million) 
    4. Paddington 2: $8.5 million ($79 million) 
    5. The Shape of Water: $5 million ($93 million) 
    6. Winchester - The House That Ghosts Built: $4 million 
    7. 12 Strong: $3.5 million ($30 million) 
    8. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $3 million ($767 million) 
    9. Lady Bird: $2.5 million ($60 million) 
    10. The Disaster Artist: $1.5 million ($51 million) 

     

    • Like 2

    THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 hours ago, filmlover said:

    It looks like death. Everything from December + expanding Oscar players should reap the benefits.

    With WB distributing Paddington 2 in the US, it might also end up doing $80 million+ DOM like it deserves as opposed to the $50-65 million DOM from being a Weinstein production. With how awful Peter Rabbit looks, I hope Paddington 2 sneaks its way to $100 million DOM. 

     

    If The Post get serious Oscar buzz (Best Picture + Best Actress frontrunner status), I could see Hidden Figures or Lincoln numbers, not Blind Side, though, since that was a zeitgeist phenomenon and 15:17 to Paris will kill some of its pre-Oscar momentum, I think. Still, $100 million DOM seems like a lock, given how empty MLK weekend and the following three weeks look. 

    • Like 2

    Weekend Prediction thread 5/3-5/5 Play the Derby

    in Box Office Derby

    Posted

    Spoiler

    12/15-12/17

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $224.5 million 
    2. Ferdinand: $14.5 million 
    3. Coco: $12 million ($152 million) 
    4. Wonder: $6.5 million ($110 million) 
    5. The Disaster Artist: $4 million ($14 million) 
    6. Justice League: $3.5 million ($218 million) 
    7. Daddy's Home 2: $3 million ($95 million) 
    8. Thor - Ragnorak: $3 million ($305 million) 
    9. Murder on the Orient Express: $2.5 million ($97 million) 
    10. Lady Bird: $2.25 million ($26 million) 

    12/22-12/25

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $112 million/$155 million ($491 million) 
    2. Pitch Perfect 3: $27.5 million/$39 million 
    3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $25 million/$39 million ($55 million)
    4. The Greatest Showman: $17 million/$24.5 million ($36 million)
    5. Ferdinand: $16 million/$24 million ($54 million)
    6. Coco: $14 million/$19.5 million ($186 million) 
    7. Wonder: $8 million/$12 million ($130 million) 
    8. Downsizing: $6.5 million/$8.5 million 
    9. The Disaster Artist: $5.5 million/$7.25 million ($25 million) 
    10. Father Figures: $5 million/$6.5 million 
    11. The Shape of Water: $4.5 million/$5.75 million ($8 million) 
    12. Lady Bird: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($33 million) 
    13. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $2.75 million/$3.75 million ($28 million) 
    14. Daddy's Home 2: $2.5 million/$3.75 million ($101 million) 
    15. Justice League: $2 million/$3 million ($223 million) 

    12/29-1/1

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $65 million/$92 million ($653 million) 
    2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $27 million/$38 million ($123 million) 
    3. Pitch Perfect 3: $20.5 million/$27 million ($86 million) 
    4. The Greatest Showman: $17.5 million/$23 million ($77 million) 
    5. Ferdinand: $16.5 million/$21 million ($92 million) 
    6. Coco: $15.5 million/$20 million ($221 million) 
    7. Wonder: $10 million/$13.5 million ($154 million) 
    8. The Disaster Artist: $6 million/$7.5 million ($38 million) 
    9. The Shape of Water: $5.25 million/$6.5 million ($19 million) 
    10. Downsizing: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($18 million) 
    11. Lady Bird: $4 million/$5 million ($42 million) 
    12. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $3.25 million/$4 million ($35 million) 
    13. Father Figures: $3 million/$3.5 million ($14 million) 
    14. Justice League: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($227 million) 
    15. Thor - Ragnorak: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($313 million) 

     

    • Like 3

    Weekend Prediction thread 5/3-5/5 Play the Derby

    in Box Office Derby

    Posted

    Spoiler

    12/8-12/10

    1. Coco: $22.5 million ($139 million)
    2. Wonder: $13.5 million ($108 million) 
    3. Justice League: $10 million ($212 million) 
    4. Thor - Ragnorak: $7.5 million ($302 million) 
    5. Daddy's Home 2: $6.5 million ($92 million) 
    6. The Disaster Artist: $6 million ($7 million) 
    7. Murder on the Orient Express: $5.5 million ($94 million) 
    8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $4.5 million ($20 million) 
    9. Lady Bird: $4.25 million ($23 million) 
    10. The Star: $3.75 million ($32 million) 

    12/15-12/17

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $225.5 million
    2. Ferdinand: $13.5 million 
    3. Coco: $12 million ($155 million) 
    4. Wonder: $8 million ($119 million) 
    5. Daddy's Home 2: $3.5 million ($97 million) 
    6. The Disaster Artist: $3.25 million ($12 million) 
    7. Justice League: $2.75 million ($216 million) 
    8. Thor - Ragnorak: $2.5 million ($306 million) 
    9. Murder on the Orient Express: $2.5 million ($98 million) 
    10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $2.5 million ($24 million) 
    11. Lady Bird: $2.5 million ($26 million) 
    12. The Star: $2 million ($34 million) 

    12/22-12/25

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $114 million/$165 million ($504 million) 
    2. Pitch Perfect 3: $27 million/$39 million
    3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $22.5 million/$37 million ($54 million) 
    4. The Greatest Showman: $15.5 million/$23 million ($35 million)
    5. Ferdinand: $14.5 million/$20 million ($48 million) 
    6. Coco: $13.5 million/$18.5 million ($187 million) 
    7. Wonder: $10.5 million/$14.5 million ($145 million) 
    8. The Disaster Artist: $6.25 million/$8.5 million ($22 million) 
    9. Downsizing: $6 million/$7.5 million
    10. Father Figures: $4.5 million/$5.5 million 
    11. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $3.75 million/$5 million ($32 million) 
    12. Lady Bird: $3.5 million/$5 million ($34 million) 
    13. Daddy's Home 2: $3 million/$4.5 million ($105 million) 
    14. Murder on the Orient Express: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($102 million) 
    15. Justice League: $1.5 million/$2.25 million ($220 million) 

    12/29-1/1

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $68 million/$104 million ($676 million) 
    2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $26 million/$37.5 million ($118 million) 
    3. Pitch Perfect 3: $19 million/$26 million ($72 million) 
    4. The Greatest Showman: $16.5 million/$22.5 million ($73 million) 
    5. Ferdinand: $16 million/$20.5 million ($84 million) 
    6. Coco: $15.5 million/$20 million ($222 million) 
    7. Wonder: $13 million/$17 million ($175 million) 
    8. The Disaster Artist: $5.5 million/$7 million ($34 million) 
    9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $4.5 million/$6 million ($42 million) 
    10. Lady Bird: $4.5 million/$6 million ($45 million) 
    11. Downsizing: $4 million/$5 million ($16 million) 
    12. Father Figures: $3 million/$3.75 million ($12 million) 
    13. Daddy's Home 2: $1.5 million/$2 million ($108 million) 
    14. Murder on the Orient Express: $1 million/$1.5 million ($105 million) 
    15. Justice League: $1 million/$1.5 million ($223 million) 

     

    • Like 1

    THE Incredibles 2 | June 15, 2018 | NO SPOILERS!!!!

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    If it weren't for Avengers 3/Solo/Deadpool 2 likely combining for $1 billion DOM the month before and JW2 likely aiming for $425 million+ DOM the weeks after, I'd say $450 million+ DOM should definitely happen. I know it'll be a PG-rated family film whereas the above are PG-13 or R, but The Avengers, Star Wars and Jurassic Park hold tremendous appeal with kids/families compared to other tentpoles. May-June 2018 reminds me of May-June 2007: 5 films likely doing $275 million+ DOM, plus a few smaller films vying for $100 million+ DOM (Ocean's 8, Tag). 

     

    Still, even with 'just' above-average reception (75-80% on RT), $275-325 million DOM should happen, but that crowded marketplace could keep it from surpassing Inside Out's $355 million DOM. 

    • Like 1

    Weekend Prediction thread 5/3-5/5 Play the Derby

    in Box Office Derby

    Posted · Edited by mahnamahna

    Spoiler

    12/1

    1. Coco: $24 million ($101 million)
    2. Justice League: $16 million ($196 million)
    3. Wonder: $13 million ($87 million)
    4. Thor - Ragnorak: $8 million ($289 million) 
    5. Murder on the Orient Express: $7 million ($85 million) 
    6. Daddy's Home 2: $6.5 million ($81 million) 
    7. The Star: $5 million ($29 million) 
    8. A Bad Moms Christmas: $3 million ($63 million) 
    9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $3 million ($12 million) 
    10. Lady Bird: $2.5 million ($14 million) 

    12/8

    1. Coco: $20 million ($128 million)
    2. Wonder: $13.5 million ($105 million)
    3. Justice League: $9.5 million ($210 million)
    4. The Disaster Artist: $6.5 million ($8 million) 
    5. Thor - Ragnorak: $6 million ($298 million) 
    6. Murder on the Orient Express: $5 million ($92 million)
    7. Daddy's Home 2: $5 million ($88 million)
    8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $4.5 million ($18 million) 
    9. The Star: $4 million ($34 million) 
    10. Lady Bird: $3.5 million ($19 million) 
    11. Just Getting Started: $3 million 
    12. A Bad Moms Christmas: $2 million ($66 million) 

    12/15

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $224.5 million 
    2. Ferdinand: $13 million 
    3. Coco: $12 million ($144 million) 
    4. Wonder: $8.5 million ($117 million) 
    5. The Disaster Artist: $4 million ($15 million) 
    6. Murder on the Orient Express: $2.5 million ($96 million) 
    7. Justice League: $2.5 million ($214 million) 
    8. Daddy's Home 2: $2.5 million ($91 million) 
    9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $2.5 million ($21 million) 
    10. The Star: $2 million ($36 million) 
    11. Lady Bird: $2 million ($22 million) 
    12. Thor - Ragnorak: $2 million ($301 million) 

    12/22

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $110 million/$158 million ($492 million) 
    2. Pitch Perfect 3: $26.5 million/$38 million 
    3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $23.5 million/$37.5 million ($54 million) 
    4. The Greatest Showman: $18 million/$27 million ($43 million) 
    5. Ferdinand: $14 million/$21 million ($48 million) 
    6. Coco: $13.5 million/$20 million ($177 million) 
    7. Wonder: $11 million/$17 million ($145 million) 
    8. The Disaster Artist: $7 million/$10 million ($28 million) 
    9. Downsizing: $6.5 million/$9 million 
    10. Father Figures: $5 million/$6.75 million 
    11. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $3 million/$4.5 million ($28 million) 
    12. Lady Bird: $2.75 million/$4 million ($29 million) 
    13. The Star: $2.25 million/$3.75 million ($43 million) 
    14. Daddy's Home 2: $2 million/$3.25 million ($97 million) 
    15. Murder on the Orient Express: $2 million/$3 million ($101 million) 

    12/29

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $65 million/$97 million ($654 million) 
    2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $25 million/$36 million ($115 million) 
    3. Pitch Perfect 3: $19 million/$25.5 million ($82 million)
    4. The Greatest Showman: $17 million/$23 million ($83 million)
    5. Ferdinand: $15.5 million/$20 million ($83 million)
    6. Coco: $14 million/$17.5 million ($208 million)
    7. Wonder: $13 million/$17 million ($175 million)
    8. The Disaster Artist: $9 million/$12 million ($49 million)
    9. Downsizing: $5 million/$6.25 million ($21 million)
    10. Father Figures: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($15 million) 
    11. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $3 million/$4 million ($35 million) 
    12. Lady Bird: $2.5 million/$3.5 million ($35 million) 
    13. Murder on the Orient Express: $1.5 million/$2 million ($104 million) 
    14. Justice League: $1.5 million/$2 million ($219 million)
    15. Daddy's Home 2: $1.25 million/$1.75 million ($100 million)

    1/5

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $30.5 million ($699 million)
    2. Insidious - The Last Key: $16.5 million 
    3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $12 million ($131 million)
    4. Pitch Perfect 3: $9 million ($96 million) 
    5. The Greatest Showman: $8 million ($95 million) 
    6. Ferdinand: $8 million ($94 million)
    7. Coco: $7.5 million ($219 million) 
    8. Wonder: $7 million ($186 million) 
    9. Molly's Game: $6 million ($8 million) 
    10. The Disaster Artist: $5.5 million ($58 million) 
    11. The Shape of Water: $4 million ($10 million)

    1/12

    1. Paddington 2: $23 million/$32 million 
    2. The Post: $21 million/$27.5 million ($31 million)
    3. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $18.5 million/$25 million ($733 million) 
    4. Proud Mary: $17 million/$21.5 million 
    5. The Commuter: $12 million/$14.5 million 
    6. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $7 million/$9.5 million ($144 million) 
    7. Wonder: $6 million/$8.5 million ($197 million) 
    8. Coco: $6 million/$8.5 million ($229 million) 
    9. The Shape of Water: $5.5 million/$7 million ($18 million) 
    10. The Disaster Artist: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($66 million)

    1/19

    1. 12 Strong: $18 million 
    2. Paddington 2: $14 million ($49 million) 
    3. The Post: $13.5 million ($50 million) 
    4. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $10 million ($748 million) 
    5. The Shape of Water: $8 million ($27 million) 
    6. Den of Thieves: $7.5 million 
    7. Proud Mary: $6 million ($31 million) 
    8. The Disaster Artist: $5 million ($72 million) 
    9. The Commuter: $4 million ($20 million) 
    10. Wonder: $4 million ($202 million) 
    11. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $3.5 million ($148 million) 
    12. Coco: $3.5 million ($233 million) 

    1/26

    1. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $24 million 
    2. Paddington 2: $12.5 million ($65 million) 
    3. The Post: $12 million ($68 million) 
    4. The Shape of Water: $10.5 million ($41 million) 
    5. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $7 million ($759 million) 
    6. The Disaster Artist: $5.5 million ($79 million) 
    7. Phantom Thread: $4 million ($11 million) 
    8. Den of Thieves: $3 million ($12 million) 
    9. Wonder: $3 million ($206 million) 
    10. Coco: $2.5 million ($236 million) 
    11. Proud Mary: $2 million ($34 million) 
    12. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $2 million ($151 million) 

    2/2

    1. Cloverfield 3: $31 million 
    2. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $10.5 million ($40 million) 
    3. Paddington 2: $8.5 million ($76 million) 
    4. The Post: $7.5 million ($79 million) 
    5. The Shape of Water: $7 million ($52 million) 
    6. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $4 million ($765 million) 
    7. The Disaster Artist: $3.5 million ($84 million) 
    8. Winchester - The House That Ghosts Built: $3 million 
    9. Phantom Thread: $2.5 million ($15 million) 
    10. Wonder: $2 million ($209 million) 
    11. Den of Thieves: $1.5 million ($14 million) 
    12. Coco: $1.5 million ($238 million) 

    2/9

    1. The 15:17 to Paris: $42 million
    2. Fifty Shades Freed: $41.5 million
    3. Peter Rabbit: $23.5 million 
    4. Cloverfield 3: $15 million ($54 million) 
    5. The Post: $6 million ($88 million) 
    6. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $6 million ($49 million) 
    7. Paddington 2: $5.5 million ($83 million) 
    8. The Shape of Water: $5 million ($59 million) 
    9. The Hurricane Heist: $3.5 million 
    10. The Disaster Artist: $2.5 million ($88 million) 
    11. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $2 million ($768 million) 
    12. Phantom Thread: $1.75 million ($17 million) 

    2/16

    1. Black Panther: $134 million/$158 million 
    2. The 15:17 to Paris: $23 million/$29.5 million ($86 million) 
    3. Fifty Shades Darker: $16 million/$20 million ($75 million) 
    4. Peter Rabbit: $15 million/$20 million ($48 million) 
    5. Cloverfield 3: $8 million/$10 million ($69 million) 
    6. Early Man: $6 million/$7.5 million 
    7. Samson: $5 million/$6 million 
    8. The Post: $5 million/$6 million ($97 million) 
    9. Paddington 2: $4 million/$5.25 million ($90 million) 
    10. The Shape of Water: $4 million/$5 million ($67 million) 
    11. Maze Runner - The Death Cure: $2 million/$2.5 million ($53 million) 
    12. The Disaster Artist: $2 million/$2.5 million ($92 million) 

     

     

    • Like 3

    Weekend Prediction thread 5/3-5/5 Play the Derby

    in Box Office Derby

    Posted

    Spoiler

    11/22-11/26

    1. Justice League: $52 million/$74 million ($186 million) 
    2. Coco: $42.5 million/$61 million 
    3. Wonder: $33.5 million/$48 million ($85 million) 
    4. Thor - Ragnorak: $17 million/$26 million ($279 million) 
    5. Daddy's Home 2: $13.5 million/$19.5 million ($73 million) 
    6. Murder on the Orient Express: $12.5 million/$18 million ($73 million) 
    7. The Star: $11 million/$15 million ($27 million) 
    8. A Bad Moms Christmas: $7.5 million/$10.5 million ($63 million) 
    9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $4 million/$6 million ($7 million)
    10. Lady Bird: $3.5 million/$5.25 million ($11 million) 

    12/1-12/3

    1. Justice League: $21 million ($218 million) 
    2. Wonder: $18.5 million ($110 million) 
    3. Coco: $18 million ($85 million) 
    4. Thor - Ragnorak: $8 million ($291 million) 
    5. Daddy's Home 2: $7 million ($83 million) 
    6. The Star: $6.5 million ($35 million) 
    7. Murder on the Orient Express: $6 million ($82 million) 
    8. A Bad Moms Christmas: $4.5 million ($70 million) 
    9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri: $2.5 million ($11 million) 
    10. Lady Bird: $2 million ($14 million) 

    12/8-12/10

    1. Wonder: $17 million ($133 million) 
    2. Coco: $15 million ($105 million) 
    3. Justice League: $12.5 million ($237 million) 
    4. Thor - Ragnorak: $6.5 million ($301 million) 
    5. Daddy's Home 2: $6 million ($91 million) 
    6. The Star: $6 million ($43 million) 
    7. The Disaster Artist: $5.5 million ($7 million) 
    8. Murder on the Orient Express: $4.5 million ($90 million) 
    9. A Bad Moms Christmas: $3.5 million ($75 million) 
    10. Just Getting Started: $3 million

    12/15-12/17

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $224 million 
    2. Ferdinand: $14.5 million 
    3. Wonder: $10 million ($147 million) 
    4. Coco: $7.5 million ($116 million) 
    5. Justice League: $3.5 million ($243 million) 
    6. Daddy's Home 2: $3 million ($95 million) 
    7. The Star: $3 million ($47 million) 
    8. The Disaster Artist: $3 million ($11 million) 
    9. Murder on the Orient Express: $2 million ($93 million) 
    10. A Bad Moms Christmas: $2 million ($78 million) 

    12/22-12/25

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $113 million/$160 million ($497 million) 
    2. Pitch Perfect 3: $27 million/$38 million 
    3. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $23 million/$36 million ($51 million) 
    4. Ferdinand: $18 million/$27.5 million ($59 million) 
    5. The Greatest Showman: $13.5 million/$19.5 million ($29 million) 
    6. Wonder: $12 million/$17 million ($176 million) 
    7. Coco: $9 million/$13 million ($138 million) 
    8. Downsizing: $8 million/$11 million 
    9. The Disaster Artist: $6.5 million/$8.5 million ($24 million) 
    10. Father Figures: $5.5 million/$7 million 
    11. The Star: $3 million/$4.5 million ($54 million) 
    12. Daddy's Home 2: $2.5 million/$3.75 million ($101 million) 
    13. Justice League: $2.5 million/$3.5 million ($249 million) 
    14. A Bad Moms Christmas: $1.5 million/$2.5 million ($82 million) 
    15. Murder on the Orient Express: $1.25 million/$1.75 million ($96 million) 

    12/29-1/1

    1. Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi: $62 million/$93 million ($652 million) 
    2. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $26 million/$37 million ($114 million) 
    3. Pitch Perfect 3: $20 million/$26 million ($85 million) 
    4. Ferdinand: $18.5 million/$24 million ($101 million) 
    5. Wonder: $13.5 million/$18 million ($207 million) 
    6. The Greatest Showman: $11.5 million/$16 million ($56 million) 
    7. Coco: $11 million/$14 million ($163 million) 
    8. Downsizing: $7 million/$9.5 million ($28 million) 
    9. The Disaster Artist: $6 million/$7.5 million ($38 million) 
    10. Father Figures: $4.5 million/$5.75 million ($18 million) 
    11. Justice League: $2 million/$2.75 million ($254 million) 
    12. The Star: $1.5 million/$2 million ($57 million) 
    13. Daddy's Home 2: $1.5 million/$2 million ($104 million) 
    14. Murder on the Orient Express: $1 million/$1.35 million ($98 million) 
    15. A Bad Moms Christmas: $0.75 million/$1 million ($83 million) 

     

     

    • Like 1

    Monday Numbers: Justice League 7.5M | Wonder 4M | Thor 2.5M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Wonder over JL would require a lot, I think. 

     

    Justice League

    $38 million/$57 million ($163 million)

    $16 million ($186 million)

    $9 million ($200 million)

    $2.5 million ($204 million)

    $1 million/$1.5 million ($207 million)

    $0.75 million/$1 million ($209 million)

    $210 million DOM 

     

    Wonder

    $32 million/$45 million ($81 million)

    $17 million ($104 million)

    $15.5 million ($125 million)

    $9 million ($137 million)

    $10 million/$14.5 million ($161 million)

    $12 million/$15.5 million ($189 million)

    $6.5 million ($197 million)

    $4.5 million/$6.25 million ($205 million)

    $2.5 million ($208 million)

    $1.5 million ($210 million)

    $215 million DOM

     

    Of course, it would require stronger legs than The Blind Side, but the A+ CinemaScore and the dearth of quality, appealing family movies since DM3 may give Wonder a boost to $200 million+ DOM. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
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