[Weekend Prediction thread 5/17-5/19 Play the Derby]

Spoiler

8/11-8/13

1. Annabelle - Creation: $34.5 million 
2. Dunkirk: $13 million ($155 million) 
3. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $11 million 
4. The Dark Tower: $10 million ($36 million) 
5. Girls Trip: $8.5 million ($99 million) 
6. The Emoji Movie: $7 million ($60 million) 
7. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $6 million ($305 million) 
8. Kidnap: $5 million ($18 million) 
9. Atomic Blonde: $5 million ($42 million) 
10. The Glass Castle: $4 million 

8/18-8/20

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $41 million
2. Annabelle - Creation: $15 million ($58 million) 
3. Logan Lucky: $12.5 million 
4. Dunkirk: $9.5 million ($169 million) 
5. Girls Trip: $7 million ($109 million) 
6. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $6.5 million ($20 million) 
7. The Dark Tower: $5.5 million ($45 million) 
8. The Emoji Movie: $4 million ($66 million) 
9. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $4 million ($311 million) 
10. Kidnap: $3 million ($23 million) 

8/25-8/27

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $28 million ($84 million) 
2. All Saints: $16.5 million 
3. Annabelle - Creation: $8.5 million ($71 million) 
4. Logan Lucky: $8 million ($25 million) 
5. Dunkirk: $8 million ($181 million) 
6. Leap!: $7 million 
7. Girls Trip: $6 million ($118 million) 
8. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $4 million ($25 million) 
9. The Dark Tower: $3.5 million ($50 million) 
10. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $3 million ($316 million) 

9/1-9/4

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $20.5 million/$27 million ($122 million) 
2. All Saints: $16 million/$22 million ($46 million) 
3. Dunkirk: $7.5 million/$9.5 million ($194 million) 
4. Leap!: $6.5 million/$9 million ($18 million) 
5. Logan Lucky: $6 million/$7.5 million ($36 million) 
6. Annabelle - Creation: $5.5 million/$7 million ($81 million) 
7. Girls Trip: $5 million/$6 million ($126 million) 
8. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $3.5 million/$5 million ($31 million) 
9. The Dark Tower: $2.5 million/$3.5 million ($54 million) 
10. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $2 million/$2.75 million ($319 million) 

 

 

 

[Goodbye Christopher Robin | Oct 13, 2017 | Fox Searchlight | Domhnall Gleeson, Margot Robbie]

On ‎12‎/‎1‎/‎2016 at 0:31 PM, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Since we're getting a live action Winnie the Pooh-live action movie.....could this get a G-rating like the rest of its animated counterpart....or maybe get a PG-rating? (Although a PG-rating would be doubtful).

 

And hopefully they could recapture the innocence, pleasantness & charm of what made the animated films so charming to its audience.

I think Pooh might be the one time Disney would make an exception for their live-action fare getting a PG. 

 

Regardless of whether it's G or PG, people will see it as toddler/preschool/kindergarten fare. Plus, there's nothing in the Winnie-the-Pooh books that comes close to being intense or adult. Since Christopher Robin is going to be an adult in the film, I doubt they'll include the only remotely 'scary' aspect of the 100 Acre Wood (Heffalumps and Woozles). 

 

But if MLP and Finding Dory are rated PG, it seems, unless a film is based on a preschool show like Dora, Doc McStuffins or Sesame Street, it's likely not going to get a G rating. Cars 3, Rio 2 and Monsters U are the only three films from the last five years that don't really fit this innocuous label for a G-rated film. 

[Wednesday Numbers: Dunkirk - $3.52 mil / Wonder Woman - $465k / Girls Trip - $2.04 million / SMH - $1.86 million / The Emoji Movie - $2.82 million / Atomic Blonde - $1.723 million / Apes 3 - $1.285 million / DM3 - $1.262 million / Valerian - $834k /]

With Annabelle 2's early reviews, I wouldn't be shocked if it opens slightly below the first film and ends up doing $5-20 million more. 

 

$33 million/$95 million seems doable, given how empty the rest of August is. 

[Weekend Prediction thread 5/17-5/19 Play the Derby]

Spoiler

8/4-8/6

1. Dunkirk: $20 million ($140 million) 
2. The Dark Tower: $16.5 million 
3. Girls Trip: $14 million ($92 million) 
4. Detroit: $13 million 
5. The Emoji Movie: $12 million ($48 million) 
6. Atomic Blonde: $9 million ($35 million) 
7. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $8.5 million ($294 million) 
8. Despicable Me 3: $6 million ($243 million) 
9. War for the Planet of the Apes: $5.5 million ($130 million) 
10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $3 million ($36 million) 

8/11-8/13

1. Annabelle - Creation: $33 million 
2. Dunkirk: $15 million ($166 million) 
3. Girls Trip: $10.5 million ($110 million) 
4. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $10 million 
5. The Dark Tower: $6.5 million ($28 million) 
6. Detroit: $6 million ($23 million) 
7. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $5.5 million ($303 million) 
8. The Emoji Movie: $5 million ($55 million) 
9. The Glass Castle: $4.5 million 
10. Atomic Blonde: $4 million ($41 million) 

8/18-8/20

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $40.5 million 
2. Annabelle - Creation: $13.5 million ($54 million) 
3. Logan Lucky: $11 million
4. Dunkirk: $10.5 million ($182 million) 
5. Girls Trip: $8 million ($123 million) 
6. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $6.5 million ($19 million) 
7. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $4 million ($309 million) 
8. The Dark Tower: $3.5 million ($33 million) 
9. Detroit: $3 million ($27 million) 
10. The Emoji Movie: $3 million ($59 million) 

8/25-8/27

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $27 million ($81 million) 
2. All Saints: $16 million 
3. Dunkirk: $8.5 million ($195 million) 
4. Logan Lucky: $8 million ($23 million) 
5. Girls Trip: $6.5 million ($133 million) 
6. Leap!: $6 million 
7. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $4 million ($24 million) 
8. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $3 million ($314 million) 
9. Tulip Fever: $2.5 million 
10. The Dark Tower: $2 million ($36 million) 

9/1-9/4

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $20.5 million/$26.5 million ($118 million) 
2. All Saints: $16.5 million/$22 million ($45 million) 
3. Dunkirk: $9 million/$11 million ($210 million) 
4. Logan Lucky: $7.5 million/$8.5 million ($35 million) 
5. Girls Trip: $6 million/$7 million ($143 million) 
6. Leap!: $5 million/$6.5 million ($14 million) 
7. Unlocked: $3.5 million/$4.25 million 
8. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $3 million/$4 million ($29 million) 
9. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $2.5 million/$3.5 million ($319 million) 
10. Wonder Woman: $1.75 million/$2.5 million ($410 million) 

9/8-9/10

1. IT: $83 million
2. Home Again: $12 million 
3. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $9 million ($130 million) 
4. Dunkirk: $5 million ($217 million) 
5. Logan Lucky: $3.5 million ($40 million) 
6. Girls Trip: $2.5 million ($147 million) 
7. Leap!: $2.5 million ($17 million) 
8. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $1.5 million ($31 million) 
9. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $1.5 million ($321 million)
10. Unlocked: $1.5 million ($6 million)

9/15-9/17

1. IT: $38 million ($132 million) 
2. mother!: $21 million 
3. American Assassin: $11 million 
4. Home Again: $7.5 million ($23 million) 
5. All I See is You: $7 million 
6. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $5 million ($137 million) 
7. Dunkirk: $3.5 million ($222 million) 
8. Logan Lucky: $1.5 million ($42 million) 
9. Leap!: $1.5 million ($19 million) 
10. Girls Trip: $1.5 million ($149 million) 

9/22-9/24

1. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $52 million
2. Ninjago: $36.5 million 
3. IT: $17 million ($159 million) 
4. mother!: $12.5 million ($39 million) 
5. Home Again: $4.5 million ($30 million) 
6. American Assassin: $4 million ($17 million) 
7. All I See is You: $3 million ($12 million) 
8. Dunkirk: $2.5 million ($226 million) 
9. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $2 million ($140 million) 
10. Friend Request: $1.5 million 

9/29-10/1

1. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $23.5 million ($88 million) 
2. Ninjago: $23 million ($66 million) 
3. American Made: $16 million
4. Flatliners: $12 million
5. mother!: $8.5 million ($52 million) 
6. IT: $8 million ($172 million) 
7. Home Again: $3 million ($34 million) 
8. American Assassin: $1.5 million ($19 million) 
9. All I See Is You: $1.5 million ($14 million) 
10. Dunkirk: $1.5 million ($228 million) 

10/6-10/8

1. Blade Runner 2049: $51 million
2. My Little Pony - The Movie: $32 million
3. The Mountain Between Us: $22 million 
4. Ninjago: $13.5 million ($83 million) 
5. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $9.5 million ($104 million) 
6. American Made: $7 million ($27 million) 
7. mother!: $4.5 million ($59 million) 
8. Flatliners: $4 million ($19 million) 
9. IT: $3 million ($177 million) 
10. Home Again: $2 million ($37 million) 

10/13-10/15

1. Blade Runner 2049: $27 million ($95 million) 
2. Happy Death Day: $21 million 
3. My Little Pony - The Movie: $15 million ($53 million) 
4. The Mountain Between Us: $14.5 million ($45 million) 
5. Ninjago: $9 million ($95 million) 
6. The Foreigner: $6.5 million 
7. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $5 million ($113 million)
8. Marshall: $3 million 
9. mother!: $3 million ($64 million) 
10. American Made: $2.5 million ($31 million) 

10/20-10/22

1. Geostorm: $25 million 
2. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: $22 million 
3. The Snowman: $13 million 
4. Blade Runner 2049: $12.5 million ($115 million) 
5. Only the Brave: $8 million 
6. The Mountain Between Us: $7.5 million ($57 million) 
7. My Little Pony - The Movie: $7 million ($63 million) 
8. Happy Death Day: $6.5 million ($32 million) 
9. War With Grandpa: $5.5 million 
10. Ninjago: $5 million ($101 million) 

10/27-10/29

1. Jigsaw: $28 million 
2. Suburbicon: $17.5 million 
3. Geostorm: $14 million 
4. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: $13 million 
5. Thank You for Your Service: $8.5 million 
6. Blade Runner 2049: $8 million 
7. The Mountain Between Us: $6 million 
8. The Snowman: $5.5 million ($22 million) 
9. My Little Pony - The Movie: $4.5 million ($70 million) 
10. Happy Death Day: $3.5 million ($38 million) 

 

 

 

[Weekend Prediction thread 5/17-5/19 Play the Derby]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Why are you expecting so much for Dark Tower and so little for Logan Lucky?  

I'm steadily adjusting Dark Tower down, so I may go as low as $23 million OW, depending on how Dunkirk does the next two weekends. Based on the reviews for both, I'm starting to think Dunkirk and Girls Trip will be the two films drawing in adult audiences over the next 7 weeks. Dark Tower looks pretty bad, so I could definitely see it bombing hard if Dunkirk gets phenomenal WOM after a $55-70 million OW

 

Logan Lucky just seems like a minor release to me. I think anything over $20 million DOM would be decent for it. It doesn't help that Hitman's Bodyguard seems to be in position to perform like the first Kingsman, either. 

 

[Weekend Prediction thread 5/17-5/19 Play the Derby]

Spoiler

7/21-7/23

1. Dunkirk: $57 million 
2. Girls Trip: $28 million 
3. War for the Planet of the Apes: $24 million ($104 million) 
4. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $23 million ($254 million) 
5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $16 million 
6. Despicable Me 3: $12.5 million ($214 million) 
7. The Big Sick: $6 million ($28 million) 
8. Baby Driver: $5.5 million ($84 million) 
9. Wonder Woman: $5 million ($390 million) 
10. Cars 3: $2 million ($144 million) 

7/28-7/30

1. Dunkirk: $37.5 million ($129 million) 
2. The Emoji Movie: $36.5 million 
3. Girls Trip: $21 million ($69 million) 
4. Atomic Blonde: $20.5 million 
5. War for the Planet of the Apes: $14 million ($132 million) 
6. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $13.5 million ($282 million) 
7. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $7 million ($31 million)
8. Despicable Me 3: $5.5 million ($226 million) 
9. The Big Sick: $4.5 million ($37 million) 
10. Wonder Woman: $4 million ($398 million) 

8/4-8/6

1. The Dark Tower: $39 million 
2. Dunkirk: $26 million ($178 million) 
3. The Emoji Movie: $21 million ($75 million) 
4. Girls Trip: $14.5 million ($96 million) 
5. Atomic Blonde: $10.5 million ($40 million) 
6. Detroit: $10 million 
7. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $8 million ($297 million) 
8. War for the Planet of the Apes: $6.5 million ($146 million) 
9. Despicable Me 3: $4 million ($234 million) 
10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $3.5 million ($38 million) 

8/11-8/13

1. Annabelle - Creation: $31 million 
2. The Dark Tower: $21 million ($76 million) 
3. Dunkirk: $17 million ($209 million) 
4. The Emoji Movie: $12 million ($95 million) 
5. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $10.5 million 
6. Girls Trip: $9 million ($112 million)  
7. Atomic Blonde: $5 million ($49 million) 
8. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $4.5 million ($305 million) 
9. Detroit: $4 million ($17 million) 
10. The Glass Castle: $3.5 million 

8/18-8/20

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $34 million 
2. The Dark Tower: $12.5 million ($97 million) 
3. Annabelle - Creation: $12 million ($51 million) 
4. Dunkirk: $11 million ($227 million) 
5. The Emoji Movie: $8 million ($106 million) 
6. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $6.5 million ($20 million) 
7. Girls Trip: $5.5 million ($121 million) 
8. Logan Lucky: $5 million 
9. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $3 million ($310 million) 
10. The Glass Castle: $2.5 million ($7 million) 

8/25-8/27

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $23.5 million ($70 million) 
2. All Saints: $16.5 million 
3. Dunkirk: $8.5 million ($240 million) 
4. The Dark Tower: $8 million ($109 million) 
5. The Emoji Movie: $6 million ($114 million) 
6. Annabelle - Creation: $5.5 million ($60 million) 
7. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $4.5 million ($26 million)
8. Girls Trip: $4 million ($127 million) 
9. Polaroid: $3.5 million 
10. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $2 million ($313 million) 

9/1-9/4

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $16.5 million/$22 million ($100 million) 
2. All Saints: $16 million/$21.5 million ($45 million) 
3. Dunkirk: $8 million/$10 million ($254 million) 
4. The Emoji Movie: $6.5 million/$8.5 million ($124 million) 
5. Renegades: $6 million/$7 million 
6. The Dark Tower: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($118 million) 
7. Leap!: $4 million/$5.5 million ($7 million) 
8. Girls Trip: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($133 million) 
9. Annabelle - Creation: $3 million/$3.75 million ($65 million) 
10. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $2.5 million/$3.5 million  ($30 million) 

 

[Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets | July 21, 2017 | FLOP OF THE YEAR]

This should have come out August 11th or 18th. Right now, Spidey, Apes 3 and Dunkirk are all drawing audiences away and Emoji/Dark Tower the following weeks target parts of Valerian's audience. 

 

If it came out as the last tentpole of Summer 2017 during a barren August period, I think it could at least reach $60-80 million DOM. In its current spot, $45-50 million DOM is more likely. 

[Weekend Actuals (Page 150): Apes 56.3M | SMH 44.2M | DM3 19.4M | Baby 8.7M | Big Dick 7.5M | WW 6.8M | Wish Upon 5.5M | Tomatoes losing their power]

Apes should do around $62-64 million OW. While it'll be more frontloaded than Dawn, the franchise skews heavily in the 35-55 demo, so previews aren't as significant an indicator for OW. 

 

$63 million/$180 million seems reasonable since Dunkirk is the last film this summer with potential for a $50 million+ OW. Everything else seems sleeper hit, mid-level hit or bomb to me.  That'll be enough for around a 2.8x-2.85x, I think. 

 

 

[2017 40M OWs - 23 down, 1 to go! (It's Time For The Year to End.)]

Thinking something like this will happen: 

 

Spoiler

 

1. Split
2. The LEGO Batman Movie 
3. Fifty Shades Darker 
4. Logan 
5. Kong: Skull Island 
6. Beauty and the Beast 
7. Power Rangers 
8. The Boss Baby 
9. The Fate of the Furious 
10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 
11. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales 
12. Wonder Woman 
13. Cars 3 
14. Transformers: The Last Knight
15. Despicable Me 3 
16. Spider-Man: Homecoming 
17. War for the Planet of the Apes
18. Dunkirk
19. The Dark Tower 
20. IT
21. Kingsman - The Golden Circle
22. Blade Runner 2049
23. Thor - Ragnorak
24. Murder on the Orient Express
25. Justice League
26. Coco
27. Star Wars - The Last Jedi 

 

 

[Weekend Prediction thread 5/17-5/19 Play the Derby]

Spoiler

7/14-7/16

1. War for the Planet of the Apes: $63.5 million 
2. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $48.5 million ($213 million) 
3. Despicable Me 3: $20 million ($188 million) 
4. The Big Sick: $14.5 million ($23 million) 
5. Baby Driver: $8 million ($72 million) 
6. Wonder Woman: $6 million ($381 million) 
7. Wish Upon: $4 million 
8. Cars 3: $3.5 million ($140 million) 
9. Transformers - The Last Knight: $3 million ($124 million) 
10. The House: $2.5 million ($23 million)

7/21-7/23

1. Dunkirk: $46.5 million 
2. War for the Planet of the Apes: $30 million ($121 million) 
3. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $25 million ($262 million) 
4. Girls Trip: $23.5 million
5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $16.5 million 
6. Despicable Me 3: $13 million ($214 million) 
7. The Big Sick: $10 million ($42 million) 
8. Baby Driver: $4 million ($80 million) 
9. Wonder Woman: $4 million ($388 million) 
10. Cars 3: $2.5 million ($145 million) 

7/28-7/30

1. The Emoji Movie: $37.5 million 
2. Dunkirk: $30.5 million ($105 million) 
3. Atomic Blonde: $20 million 
4. War for the Planet of the Apes: $17 million ($154 million) 
5. Girls Trip: $16 million ($54 million) 
6. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $14 million ($290 million) 
7. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $7 million ($30 million) 
8. The Big Sick: $6.5 million ($55 million) 
9. Despicable Me 3: $6 million ($228 million) 
10. Wonder Woman: $3 million ($394 million) 

8/4-8/6

1. The Dark Tower: $44 million 
2. The Emoji Movie: $23 million ($82 million) 
3. Dunkirk: $21 million ($145 million) 
4. Girls Trip: $11.5 million ($75 million) 
5. Atomic Blonde: $11 million ($41 million) 
6. Detroit: $9.5 million 
7. War for the Planet of the Apes: $8 million ($169 million) 
8. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $7.5 million ($304 million) 
9. The Big Sick: $5 million ($64 million)
10. Kidnap: $4.5 million 

8/11-8/13

1. Annabelle - Creation: $31.5 million 
2. The Dark Tower: $24.5 million ($89 million) 
3. Dunkirk: $15 million ($172 million) 
4. The Emoji Movie: $14.5 million ($106 million) 
5. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $9.5 million 
6. Girls Trip: $8.5 million ($90 million) 
7. Atomic Blonde: $6 million ($52 million) 
8. The Glass Castle: $5 million 
9. War for the Planet of the Apes: $4.5 million ($177 million) 
10. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $4 million ($312 million) 

8/18-8/20

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $33.5 million 
2. The Dark Tower: $13 million ($110 million) 
3. Annabelle - Creation: $12 million ($50 million) 
4. Dunkirk: $11 million ($189 million) 
5. The Emoji Movie: $9.5 million ($118 million) 
6. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $6 million ($17 million) 
7. Logan Lucky: $5.5 million 
8. Girls Trip: $5 million ($98 million) 
9. The Glass Castle: $3 million ($10 million) 
10. War for the Planet of the Apes: $2.5 million ($181 million) 

8/25-8/27

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $22 million ($67 million) 
2. All Saints: $16.5 million 
3. Dunkirk: $8.5 million ($202 million) 
4. The Dark Tower: $8 million ($122 million) 
5. The Emoji Movie: $7 million ($127 million) 
6. Polaroid: $5 million 
7. Annabelle - Creation: $4.5 million ($57 million) 
8. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $4 million ($22 million)
9. Girls Trip: $3.5 million ($102 million) 
10. Logan Lucky: $3 million ($10 million) 

9/1-9/4

1. All Saints: $16 million/$22.5 million ($46 million) 
2. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $15 million/$19 million ($94 million) 
3. Dunkirk: $8 million/$10 million ($215 million) 
4. The Emoji Movie: $7.5 million/$10 million ($138 million) 
5. The Dark Tower: $6.5 million/$7.75 million ($133 million) 
6. Renegades: $5 million/$6 million 
7. Leap!: $4 million/$5 million ($6 million) 
8. Girls Trip: $3 million/$3.5 million ($107 million) 
9. Annabelle - Creation: $2.5 million/$3 million ($61 million) 
10. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($26 million) 

9/8-9/10

1. IT: $76.5 million 
2. All Saints: $10 million ($59 million) 
3. Home Again: $9 million 
4. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $7 million ($103 million) 
5. Dunkirk: $5 million ($222 million) 
6. The Emoji Movie: $4 million ($143 million)
7. Leap!: $2.5 million ($9 million) 
8. Renegades: $2 million ($8 million) 
9. Girls Trip: $1.5 million ($109 million) 
10. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $1.5 million ($28 million) 

9/15-9/17

1. IT: $43 million ($143 million) 
2. American Assassin: $7 million 
3. All Saints: $6.5 million ($68 million) 
4. Home Again: $5.5 million ($17 million) 
5. All I See is You: $5 million 
6. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $4.5 million ($110 million) 
7. Dunkirk: $4 million ($228 million) 
8. The Emoji Movie: $3 million ($147 million) 
9. Leap!: $1.75 million ($11 million) 
10. Girls Trip: $1 million ($110 million) 

9/22-9/24

1. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $48.5 million 
2. Ninjago: $38 million 
3. IT: $22 million ($177 million) 
4. Friend Request: $4 million 
5. All Saints: $3.5 million ($73 million) 
6. Home Again: $3 million ($21 million) 
7. American Assassin: $3 million ($11 million) 
8. Dunkirk: $2.5 million ($232 million) 
9. All I See Is You: $2 million ($8 million) 
10. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $1.5 million ($112 million) 

9/29-10/1

1. Ninjago: $25 million ($70 million) 
2. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $22 million ($82 million) 
3. American Made: $15.5 million
4. Flatliners: $12.5 million 
5. IT: $12 million ($196 million) 
6. All Saints: $2 million ($76 million) 
7. Home Again: $2 million ($24 million) 
8. Dunkirk: $1.5 million ($234 million) 
9. Friend Request: $1.5 million ($6 million) 
10. American Assassin: $1.5 million ($13 million) 

10/6-10/8

1. Blade Runner 2049: $52 million
2. My Little Pony - The Movie: $31 million 
3. The Mountain Between Us: $21.5 million 
4. Ninjago: $14.5 million ($88 million) 
5. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $9.5 million ($97 million) 
6. IT: $7 million ($207 million) 
7. American Made: $6.5 million ($27 million) 
8. Flatliners: $5 million ($20 million) 
9. All Saints: $1.5 million ($78 million) 
10. Home Again: $1.5 million ($26 million) 

 

[Tuesday Numbers: SMH 15M, DM3 6.7M, BD 2.29M, WW 1.64M]

WW looks like it can reach $400 million DOM, depending on its holds the next two weekends. With two more sub-40% drops, I think it'll come close to topping IM3/CA:CW. If they're 25-30% drops, a 4x is in the cards. 

 

 

 

[Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65]

Excellent debut for Spider-Man - Homecoming, considering it had to overcome three consecutive films with mediocre to awful WOM and WW breaking out last month. Since it's the last truly fun summer blockbuster (Apes 3, Dunkirk and Dark Tower are too bleak-looking, Valerian will be lucky to do $75 million DOM IMO), I could see it holding on stronger than the other MCU films of late, perhaps $120 million/$325 million.

 

DM3 is actually holding great - sub-50% drop from an inflated 5-day OW and a $100 million+ opener targeting family audiences. With sorta Valerian, Emoji and Nut Job 2 being the only kid-friendly films from now until September 22nd, I can see it ending up in the $260-275 million DOM range.

 

Baby Driver is doing well and should be able to reach the $85-105 million DOM range. 

 

WW potentially having its best hold yet against SM:H is shocking. At its current pace, $410-420 million DOM is likely where it'll end up.

 

Cars 3 rebounded nicely and should make it to $155-160 million DOM with summer weekdays, two weeks of no new kids movies and the usual Disney Labor Day boost. 

 

TF5 may not even reach $135 million DOM or even $130 million DOM. The House is doing even worse, especially since there isn't any comedy competition, so it should have done much better.

 

Big Sick is becoming a sleeper hit; maybe $50 million+ DOM? 

 

 

 

 

 

[Weekend Prediction thread 5/17-5/19 Play the Derby]

Spoiler

7/7-7/9

1. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $138.5 million
2. Despicable Me 3: $33 million ($147 million)
3. Baby Driver: $12.5 million ($56 million)
4. Wonder Woman: $9 million ($367 million)
5. Transformers - The Last Knight: $6 million ($118 million)
6. Cars 3: $5 million ($133 million)
7. The House: $4.5 million ($18 million)
8. The Big Sick: $4 million ($7 million)
9. The Beguiled: $3.5 million ($9 million)
10. 47 Meters Down: $2.5 million ($38 million)

7/14-7/16

1. War for the Planet of the Apes: $57.5 million
2. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $56 million ($250 million)
3. Despicable Me 3: $20.5 million ($188 million)
4. The Big Sick: $8.5 million ($19 million)
5. Baby Driver: $8 million ($72 million)
6. Wonder Woman: $5.5 million ($378 million)
7. Cars 3: $3.5 million ($140 million)
8. The Beguiled: $3 million ($14 million)
9. Transformers - The Last Knight: $2.5 million ($123 million)
10. Wish Upon: $2 million

7/21-7/23

1. Dunkirk: $46 million
2. War for the Planet of the Apes: $28.5 million ($113 million)
3. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $25.5 million ($301 million)
4. Girls Trip: $23 million
5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $20.5 million
6. Despicable Me 3: $13 million ($215 million)
7. The Big Sick: $6.5 million ($32 million)
8. Baby Driver: $4.5 million ($81 million)
9. Wonder Woman: $3.5 million ($385 million)
10. Cars 3: $2.5 million ($145 million)

7/28-7/30

1. The Emoji Movie: $38 million
2. Dunkirk: $30.5 million ($104 million)
3. Atomic Blonde: $22 million
4. War for the Planet of the Apes: $17 million ($145 million)
5. Girls Trip: $15.5 million ($53 million)
6. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $13.5 million ($328 million)
7. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $11 million ($42 million)
8. Despicable Me 3: $6 million ($228 million)
9. The Big Sick: $4.5 million ($41 million)
10. Wonder Woman: $2.5 million ($390 million)

 

[Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65]

11 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

I think Thor will miss it because of its close proximity to Justice League.

Agreed. The first two Thor films have received middling reception. With Thor 2 barely making it past $200 million DOM, anything over Doctor Strange DOM is a success for it IMO. Not saying it'll 'only' do $230-240 million DOM, but it's better to wait for predictions over $250-270 million DOM until Ragnorak opens at least. However, based on IM2 to IM3 and CA2 to CW jumps, $300-350 million DOM isn't an unprecedented jump between the second and third films for MCU entries, if the scope for the third film is huge.

 

November 2017 does seem crowded, though. I count a possible 6 $100 million DOM performers, with a seventh likely to do $65 million+ DOM.

[5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M]

48 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

I reckon they'll move Tomb Raider or Rampage to May. I don't see them risking RPO in the summer.

They could always arrange their schedule like this:

Spoiler

1/12 - Rampage

1/19 - Horse Soldiers

2/14 - Game Night

3/16 - Ready Player One

4/20 - The Nun

5/11 - Ocean's 8

5/25 (if Han Solo gets delayed/Deadpool 2 remains on 6/1) or 6/1 (if Han Solo gets delayed/Deadpool 2 takes the Memorial Day slot) - Tomb Raider

6/8 - Life of the Party

6/29 - Tag

8/10 - Meg

9/7 - Untitled WB Horror

9/14 - Smallfoot

9/28 - A Star is Born

10/19 - Jungle Book - Origins

11/16 - Fantastic Beasts 2

12/21 - Aquaman

There isn't a blockbuster-type film in January yet, so Rampage, Geostorm and Tomb Raider could all be a good fit for MLK weekend IMO

[2017 100M Films - 33 down, 3 to go! (Pitchslapped!)]

Time to revise projections a little:

Spoiler

Currently there

1. Split
2. The LEGO Batman Movie
3. Fifty Shades Darker
4. Get Out
5. Logan
6. Kong - Skull Island
7. Beauty & the Beast
8. The Boss Baby
9. The Fate of the Furious
10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
11. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales
12. Wonder Woman
13. Cars 3
14. Transformers - The Last Knight

Predictions

1. Despicable Me 3
2. Spider-Man - Homecoming
3. Baby Driver
4. War for the Planet of the Apes
5. Dunkirk
6. The Emoji Movie
7. The Dark Tower
8. Girls Trip
9. The Hitman's Bodyguard
10. IT
11. Kingsman - The Golden Circle
12. Ninjago
13. Blade Runner 2049
14. Thor - Ragnorak
15. Justice League
16. Murder on the Orient Express
17. The Star
18. Coco
19. Daddy's Home 2
20. Star Wars - The Last Jedi
21. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle
22. Pitch Perfect 3
23. The Greatest Showman

Possible top 37

1. Star Wars - The Last Jedi: $845 million
2. Beauty & the Beast: $504 million
3. Wonder Woman: $396 million
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $390 million
5. Justice League: $347 million
6. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $316 million
7. Thor - Ragnorak: $273 million
8. Despicable Me 3: $266 million
9. Coco: $243 million
10. Dunkirk: $229 million
11. Logan: $226 million
12. The Fate of the Furious: $225 million
13. War for the Planet of the Apes: $188 million
14. IT: $182 million
15. The LEGO Batman Movie: $176 million
16. Get Out: $175 million
17. The Boss Baby: $173 million
18. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $172 million
19. Kong - Skull Island: $168 million
20. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $157 million
21. Blade Runner 2049: $154 million
22. Cars 3: $148 million
23. The Star: $143 million
24. Transformers - The Last Knight: $141 million
25. Split: $138 million
26. Murder on the Orient Express: $133 million
27. Pitch Perfect 3: $126 million
28. The Emoji Movie: $122 million
29. Baby Driver: $119 million
30. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $117 million  
31. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $116 million
32. Fifty Shades Darker: $115 million
33. Ninjago: $109 million
34. The Greatest Showman: $107 million  
35. Daddy's Home 2: $104 million
36. The Dark Tower: $103 million
37. Girls Trip: $102 million

 

[5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

Wonder Woman is now only $9 million behind Guardians 2 at the same point, but after the 5th weekend G2 started to get great legs. WW is going to face a massive opener in each of the next 3 weekends: Spider-man, Apes, and of course, Valerian.

 

I think it's going to be an exciting race between the 2. Great year for comic book movies. 

Wonder Woman has a good chance at finishing above Guardians 2 IMO, if it drops in the 45-50% range next weekend.

 

$9 million ($367 million)

$5.5 million ($378 million)

$3.5 million ($385 million)

$2.5 million ($390 million)

$1.5 million ($393 million)

$1 million ($395 million)

 

Add another $5-10 million from the Labor Day boost and second-run theaters... it gets to $400-405 million DOM

[5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M]

DM3 is performing fine for the fourth film in a franchise - $80 million/$270 million seems likely since there's minimal competition for kids. BD is outperforming my expectations at a $27 million 5-day. Should end up with $70-90 million DOM, bigger than any other Wright film. TF5 is just waiting until SM:H and Apes 3 send it out of theaters - $140 million DOM is the ceiling at this point.

 

Wonder Woman continues to hold well. $375-390 million DOM is a welcome surprise for this summer. If it has a sub-50% drop against Spidey, $390-400 million DOM is a possibility. The House is another casualty in this summer's failing comedies. Girls Trip and Hitman's Bodyguard might become hugely successful as a result.

 

Cars 3 plummeted as expected, but summer weekdays should help it get to $140-150 million DOM. 47 Meters Down has become a sleeper hit as it heads to a $40-45 million finish.  Surprised at POTC5 holding on for so long - $170-175 million DOM didn't seem like a possibility after the muted OW.

 

 

[Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle | December 22 2017 | Special showings for Amazon Prime members on December 8]

As long as it's not awful, it should easily be the #2 film DOM for December 2017.

 

Pitch Perfect 3 should decline by at least $50 million from PP2, Greatest Showman will likely do similar as Unbroken and Ferdinand is likely going for the preschool/kindergarten crowd based on Blue Sky going G-rated for everything except Ice Age the past decade.

 

With its broader appeal than the other major December releases, it should benefit the most from Last Jedi sellouts.

[Weekend Prediction thread 5/17-5/19 Play the Derby]

Spoiler

7/7-7/9

1. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $124.5 million
2. Despicable Me 3: $39 million ($164 million)
3. Baby Driver: $10.5 million ($49 million)
4. Wonder Woman: $8.5 million ($365 million)
5. Transformers - The Last Knight: $7 million ($119 million)
6. Cars 3: $6 million ($133 million)
7. The House: $4 million ($18 million)
8. The Beguiled: $3.5 million ($10 million)
9. 47 Meters Down: $2.5 million ($38 million)
10. The Big Sick: $2.5 million ($3 million)

7/14-7/16

1. War for the Planet of the Apes: $67 million
2. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $47 million ($218 million)
3. Despicable Me 3: $22.5 million ($208 million)
4. Baby Driver: $6.5 million ($62 million)
5. Wonder Woman: $5.5 million ($376 million)
6. The Big Sick: $4.5 million ($10 million)
7. Cars 3: $4 million ($141 million)
8. Wish Upon: $3.5 million
9. Transformers - The Last Knight: $3 million ($125 million)
10. The Beguiled: $2.5 million ($14 million)

7/21-7/23

1. Dunkirk: $46 million
2. War for the Planet of the Apes: $31.5 million ($129 million)
3. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $23.5 million ($265 million)
4. Girls Trip: $23 million
5. Despicable Me 3: $13.5 million ($235 million)
6. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $12 million
7. The Big Sick: $6 million ($20 million)
8. Baby Driver: $3.5 million ($69 million)
9. Wonder Woman: $3.5 million ($383 million)
10. Cars 3: $2.5 million ($146 million)

7/28-7/30

1. The Emoji Movie: $37.5 million
2. Dunkirk: $30.5 million ($105 million)
3. Atomic Blonde: $23 million
4. War for the Planet of the Apes: $19 million ($165 million)
5. Girls Trip: $15.5 million ($53 million)
6. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $13 million ($290 million)
7. Despicable Me 3: $6.5 million ($248 million)
8. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $5.5 million ($23 million)
9. The Big Sick: $4.5 million ($29 million)
10. Wonder Woman: $2.5 million ($388 million)

 

[My Little Pony: The Movie | Oct 6 2017 | Emily Blunt. Sia joins voice cast.]

I think Ninjago and MLP can both co-exist, especially since MLP will likely bring in more adults without kids than Ninjago will, due to the vocal adult fanbase for the show.

 

Either way, Fall 2017 looks to be in better shape than Fall 2016. The top 15, at least, looks to have greater potential.

 

Spoiler

1. It: $65 million/$170 million
2. Blade Runner 2049: $50 million/$150 million
3. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $50 million/$135 million
4. Ninjago: $35 million/$115 million
5. The Mountain Between Us: $25 million/$100 million
6. My Little Pony - The Movie: $30 million/$85 million
7. Geostorm: $25 million/$70 million
8. Cloverfield 3: $25 million/$65 million
9. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween: $25 million/$60 million
10. mother!: $15 million/$55 million
11. Happy Death Day: $15 million/$35 million
12. The Snowman: $15 million/$35 million
13. Thank You for Your Service: $10 million/$35 million
14. Jigsaw: $15 million/$30 million
15. Granite Mountain Hotshots: $10 million/$30 million

 

 

[Best films of 2017!]

I'm really far behind on my 2017 releases  hopefully, I'll get a chance to catch up on the Jan-Apr releases through Redbox/Netflix by August.

 

A

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Logan

 

A-

Wonder Woman

The LEGO Batman Movie

 

B+

The Case for Christ

Cars 3

Split

 

B-

Monster Trucks

 

C-

Going in Style

 

Movies to See

Spoiler

January

• A Dog's Purpose

February

• John Wick Chapter Two
• A United Kingdom
• Get Out

March

• Beauty & the Beast
• The Boss Baby
• Kong - Skull Island
• Power Rangers
• The Zookeeper's Wife
• Before I Fall

April

• Gifted
• A Quiet Passion
• How to Be a Latin Lover

May

• Everything, Everything
• Paris Can Wait
• The Wedding Plan

June

• Captain Underpants - The First Epic Movie
• Megan Leavey
• The Big Sick
• I, Daniel Blake
• Maudie
• Beatriz at Dinner
• My Cousin Rachel
• Despicable Me 3

July

• Spider-Man - Homecoming
• War for the Planet of the Apes
• Dunkirk
• Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

August

• The Dark Tower
• The Glass Castle
• All Saints

September

• Ninjago

October

• The Mountain Between Us
• mother!
• Goodbye, Christopher Robin
• Geostorm
• Same Kind of Different As Me
• Granite Mountain Hotshots
• The Snowman
• Cloverfield 3

November

• Thor - Ragnorak
• Daddy's Home 2
• The Star
• Murder on the Orient Express
• Justice League
• Wonder
• Coco

December

• Ferdinand
• Star Wars - The Last Jedi
• Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle
• Pitch Perfect 3
• The Current War
• Untitled Steven Spielberg
• Untitled PTA
• The Greatest Showman

 

 

[June 23-25 Weekend Thread | TF5 45M, Cars 3 24.0, Wonder Woman 24.9 (10th highest 4th weekend of all time and biggest 4th weekend of 2017)]

2 minutes ago, ttr said:

What is considered to be normal 3rd weekend drop? I mean, how Cars 3 should behave not to be considered "killed by DM3"?

Anything over $11.5 million would be decent for Cars 3 next weekend. Coupled with summer weekdays, it would likely be on pace for $150-160 million DOM at that point.

 

 

[June 23-25 Weekend Thread | TF5 45M, Cars 3 24.0, Wonder Woman 24.9 (10th highest 4th weekend of all time and biggest 4th weekend of 2017)]

37 minutes ago, Spaghetti of 1000 Planets said:

Wonder Woman just needs a 4x multiplier from this weekend to make it to 400m. I think it will make it to 350m by the end of next weekend, if not very close, so by the time Spidey hits, it just needs to stay a little stronger.

 

Transformers 5 wasn't quite as disastrous as it seemed to be yesterday, but no doubt 150m will be an uphill battle. 

 

I think The Big Sick (aka the opposite end of interracial dating of Get Out) is gonna be a BIG indie player throughout the entire summer. It'll have the chance to build WOM now and could have a surprise breakout run. It's apparently a major crowd pleaser.

Even with the largest drop it's had so far (its 2nd weekend), WW would do $16 million. Add another $13-16 million in weekdays - it should be at $350-353 million DOM by July 2nd.

[June 23-25 Weekend Thread | TF5 45M, Cars 3 24.0, Wonder Woman 24.9 (10th highest 4th weekend of all time and biggest 4th weekend of 2017)]

Transformers 5 is doing slightly better than initially expected. 13.7/16.4/13.2 ($43.3 million OW/$67 million 5-day). While $140-155 million DOM is a huge decline and might mean the Bumblebee spinoff is heading for ID42 numbers at best, OS should save it and help Paramount stay afloat and/or find a new purpose (maybe mid-budget comedies/Oscar-bait dramas and low-budget thrillers could be their focus instead of tentpoles? Other than M:I and SpongeBob, they don't really have any consistent performers these days)

 

Spoiler

 

Wonder Woman continues to perform fantastically! A sub-35% drop against a new Transformers film? Even though it's underperforming, that's still thousands of screens being used for TF5 instead of WW. I'm almost starting to think it may shock us all and have a sub-50% drop against SMH (in which case, $400 million DOM is likely locked since Apes 3, Dunkirk, Emoji and Dark Tower are not going to do $75 million+ OW most likely).

 

$28 million ($321 million)

$19 million ($358 million)

$10 million ($379 million)

$5.5 million ($390 million)

$3.5 million ($397 million)

$2.5 million ($402 million)

$1.5 million ($405 million)

$1 million ($407 million)

$0.75 million ($408 million)

$0.5 million ($409 million)

$1.75 million/$2.5 million ($412 million)

$415-418 million DOM

 

 Cars 3 is doing as expected. With summer weekdays, even a 55-60% drop against DM3 should put it on pace for $145-155 million DOM. I think it'll reach $165-170 million DOM.

 

Captain Underpants, Pirates 5 and 47 Meters Down are holding better than I expected. If it weren't for DM3, I'd say CU could reach $80-85 million DOM. Pirates 5 should get one more good hold since there's no action tentpoles next weekend, putting it on pace for $175 million DOM. 47 Meters Down could end up in the $35-40 million DOM range - not bad for a release everyone thought wouldn't even break $7.5 million OW.

 

The Mummy and All Eyez are dropping hard. All Eyez was expected, but I thought Mummy might be able to reach $7 million since TF5 is having a muted OW.