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I think a shop would receive a full shipment of Avengers merchandise and put 100% of it all upfront and then order a second shipment for a week later. I think Star Wars might have to order two full shipments and will probably sell out one shipment real quick and then the other one lasts for over a week to the general public

I do not see showings listed for Show Dogs yet on Fandango for next weekend, but The Book Club has Thursday previews starting at 5pm and going for 3x showings per location. Might suggest a preview number above (1/2) million.

^^ I'm guessing these would translate to 60-70m IW days

Th + Fri + Sat of Matrix Reloaded OW (adjusted). Maybe they could slip an R-rating for Jurassic World and see what happens 15 1 2 $56,977,800 $64,573,100 650.2% / - - / - 3,603 / $15,800 $17,900 $64,573,100 / 1 16 1 $47,593,100 -16.5% / - 3,603 / $13,200 $112,166,200 / 2 17 1 $52,239,700 9.8% / - 3,603 / $14,500 $164,405,900 / 3

If Deadpool 2 plays in 4,250 locations and averages $37,222 (Deadpool 1's avg), that is 158.19 OW.

I'm guessing there would not be too much Avengers merchandise because there is always so many different movies coming out in the MCU so it might be hard to keep up with all the toys and memorabilia. Maybe it has an upward trend with digital merchandise. However, Star Wars merchandise probably pre-sells very quickly and then continuously sells onward.

I'm guessing Thor: Ragnarok? 8.9% Sunday Night October 29th against Jigsaw. not bad.

can you tell if DP is selling as well into Sat and Sun that GOTG2, IW, CW, Deapool 1, and BATB were?

I do not think Upgrade can break out and open to the heights that The Darkness (2016) did, but if Upgrade doubles Sleight's 591 theater count, it might double Sleight's numbers.

here are the 8 movies by BH tilt If Upgrade can get to 1,700 theaters and average $3,000, then it will be the studios #1 opener over The Darkness (2016) http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?yr=&view=company&view2=allmovies&studio=bhtilt.htm&sort=open&order=DESC&p=.htm Row Rank Movie Title (click to view) Studio Total Gross / Theaters Opening / Theaters Open 1 4 Birth of the Dragon BH Tilt $6,901,965 1,633 $2,702,430 1,618 8/25/17 2 5 Lowriders BH Tilt $6,303,560 365 $2,403,885 295 5/12/17 3 7 Sleight BH Tilt $3,986,245 591 $1,701,785 565 4/28/17 4 2 The Belko Experiment BH Tilt $10,166,820 1,341 $4,137,230 1,341 3/17/17 5 8 The Resurrection of Gavin Stone BH Tilt $2,303,792 890 $1,206,771 890 1/20/17 6 6 Incarnate BH Tilt $4,799,774 1,737 $2,534,884 1,737 12/2/16 7 1 The Darkness BH Tilt $10,753,574 1,769 $4,950,859 1,755 5/13/16 8 3 The Green Inferno BH Tilt $7,192,291 1,543 $3,520,626 1,540 9/25/15

Here is STX 19 films so far. I am thinking Adrift could get 2,750 theaters and a little over 12.5m OW. Adrift is opening the weekend after Solo: Star Wars and against Paramount's Action Point and BH Tilt's Upgrade. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?yr=&view=company&view2=allmovies&studio=stx.htm&sort=open&order=DESC&p=.htm Row Rank Movie Title (click to view) Studio Total Gross / Theaters Opening / Theaters Open 1 4 I Feel Pretty STX $43,856,576 3,440 $16,030,218 3,440 4/20/18 2 17 Gringo STX $4,969,853 2,404 $2,722,420 2,404 3/9/18 3 3 Den of Thieves STX $44,947,622 2,432 $15,206,108 2,432 1/19/18 4 9 Molly's Game STX $28,780,744 1,708 $2,349,967 271 12/25/17 5 2 A Bad Moms Christmas STX $72,110,659 3,615 $16,759,161 3,615 11/1/17 6 8 The Foreigner STX $34,393,507 2,515 $13,113,024 2,515 10/13/17 7 6 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets STX $41,189,488 3,553 $17,007,624 3,553 7/21/17 8 12 The Circle (2017) STX $20,497,844 3,163 $9,034,148 3,163 4/28/17 9 18 Their Finest STX $3,603,484 330 $76,197 4 4/7/17 10 16 The Space Between Us STX $7,885,294 2,812 $3,775,596 2,812 2/3/17 11 10 The Bye Bye Man STX $22,395,806 2,220 $13,501,349 2,220 1/13/17 12 14 The Edge of Seventeen STX $14,431,633 1,945 $4,754,215 1,945 11/18/16 13 19 Desierto STX $2,002,036 168 $514,282 73 10/14/16 14 1 Bad Moms STX $113,257,297 3,215 $23,817,340 3,215 7/29/16 15 11 Free State of Jones STX $20,810,036 2,815 $7,572,206 2,815 6/24/16 16 15 Hardcore Henry STX $9,252,038 3,015 $5,107,604 3,015 4/8/16 17 7 The Boy (2016) STX $35,819,556 2,671 $10,778,392 2,671 1/22/16 18 13 The Secret in their Eyes (2015) STX $20,180,155 2,392 $6,652,996 2,392 11/20/15 19 5 The Gift (2015) STX $43,787,265 2,503 $11,854,273 2,503 8/7/15

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-ant-man-wasp-first-purge/ ^^they should give a theater count estimate for Action Point next Friday afternoon. Here is the only TV spot I could find on youtube.

still no trailers other than that ridiculous first one?

not looking good so far. Deadpool is still in last. For a potential 150m opener in less than seven days, one would think it would outrank the films grossing under 20m this weekend. I wonder if it is selling well into Saturday + Sunday

it is tough to operate when there are no daily numbers for I Can Only Imagine, Chappaquiddick, Sherlock Gnomes, Peter Rabbit, Love Simon, Tomb Raider, and Game Night.

if IW does 27m today, will it go under 13.5m next Saturday against Deadpool? 13.5 Sat = approx. 32m 4th weekend (-50%) 600 24 day total.

Solo: Star Wars 600+

Going off of decent Saturday increases... Fri Sat Sun 3day Total Infinity War - 16.00 (+72%) 27.50 (-25%) 20.50 = 64.00 - 550.00 Life of Party - 4.21 (+42%) 6.00 (+10%) 6.60 = 17.51 - Breaking In - 3.97 (+51%) 6.00 (+7%) 6.40 = 16.99 - Overboard - 2.18 (+50%) 3.27 (+18%) 3.85 = 9.30 - 28.79 Quiet Place - 1.8 (+50%) 2.7 (-26%) 2.00 = 6.5 - 169.65 Feel Pretty - 0.96 (+35%) 1.3 (+26%) 1.64 = 3.9 - 44.05 Rampage - 0.8 (+88%) 1.5 (-27%) 1.10 = 3.4 - 89.76 Tully 0.57 (+46%) 0.83 (+20%) 1.00 = 2.4 - 7.13 Panther 0.54 (+78%) 0.96 (-32%) 0.65 = 2.15 - 696.40 Blockers 0.32 (+50%) 0.48 (-25%) 0.36 = 1.16 - 58.17

Per Theater Averages with Thursday previews removed and assuming 6m Saturday for Breaking In and Life of the Party. Life of the Party Fri Sat $1,152 (+42.5%) $1,641 Breaking In Fri Sat $1,562 (+51.8%) $2,365 +50% from Friday to Sunday for each film gives these weekend numbers 17.2 - Life of the Party 16.5 - Breaking In and with +67% 17.9 - Life of the Party 17.2 - Breaking In

5/18 - 5/20 Deadpool 2 - 153.00 - 153.00 (-48%) Infinity War - 31.50 - 594.00 Show Dogs - 11.50 - 11.50 Book Club - 9.00 - 9.00 5/25 - 5/27/28 Solo: Star Wars - 164.0/205.0 - 205.00 (-65%) Deadpool 2 - 53.0/67.0 - 263.00 (-37%) Infinity War - 20.0/26.0 - 629.00 (-48%) Show Dogs - 6.0/8.0 - 22.80 (-47%) The Book Club - 4.8/6.0 - 18.70

Movietickets.com top 5 https://www.movietickets.com/ 1 - Infinity War - 45.7% 2 - Life of the Party - 11.3% 3 - Breaking In - 9.0% 4 - Overboard - 4.1% 5 - Deadpool 2 - 3.9%

weekdays assuming 60m weekend at 17 days this coming Sunday Mon Tues Wed Thurs 4.00 (+32.5%) 5.30 (-32%) 3.6 + 3.4 = 562.3 21-day total. with this, a 27.7m (-54%) weekend against Deadpool gives 590 total at 24 days. Listed above has the upcoming weekdays predicted at 16.3. Assume that drops by half for the weekdays following Deadpool. Add another 8 here for 598 total at 28 days. but maybe IW goes for 30m+ next weekend to eclipse the 600m mark before day #28 (the Thursday after next).

because of the unpredictability of MD Sunday, but 100% predictability for everything else, a complete list of Friday numbers, or Fri + Sat increases should set up a good structure for predicting the holdovers next weekend.

are the graphs good when you want to start with the final and go backwards? I assume slopes round to 3 to 4 day intervals.

top ten predictions until next fluctuation (-48%) Infinity War - 60.00 - 546.01 (new) Life of Party - 19.00 - 19.00 (new) Breaking In - 14.015 - 14.015 (-43%) Overboard - 8.40 - 27.89 (-23%) A Quiet Place - 6.00 - 169.15 (-27%) I Feel Pretty - 3.70 - 43.85 (-32%) Rampage - 3.16 - 89.52 (-34%) Black Panther - 2.16 - 696.41 (-36%) Tully - 2.10 - 6.84 (+248%) Wrinkle in Time - 1.43 - 97.09 (-43%) Blockers - 1.00 - 58.01 (+14%) Isle of Dogs - 0.92 - 29.80 (-52%) Truth or Dare - 0.91 - 39.72 these 20 movies had theater counts total at 35,278. assume (-278) for Bad Samaritan which has not been listed yet, and that is 35,000 theater counts with all these. Next week might see.... 4,300 Deadpool 2,700 Book Club 3,000 Show Dogs +10,000 I think there would be about -10,000 going out next weekend at the least. The +1,500+ expansion of A Wrinkle in Time might easily loose that much next weekend to help realistically push the number to -10,000 without having to too heavily account elsewhere. Bad Samaritan could loose 1,500 and Rampage, Pretty, and Super Troopers could each loose 1,000 next weekend too. Those five movies discussed already shows up to -6,000 which then could leave -4,000 for the next 15 movies. Chappaquiddick is at 317 this weekend for its weekend #6, so it would probably go (-150) next weekend for weekend #7 with 167 location counts. Traffik is at 381 and should go (-200) for 181 next weekend. That is (-350) for another two movies following approximately guessed (-6,000) for the other five films. Life of the Party and Breaking In are new, so that is another 2 films that can be ruled out leaving 11 films that may require (-3,850) in total location losses next weekend. But if A Quiet Place increases +150, then that leaves (-4,000) for ten films.