The Panda

Ehhhh, 500m isn’t even guaranteed with a 225m OW (A low 2.15-2.2x mult goes under 500m). It’d need a 2.66x multi if OW is 225m to hit 600m, which would be around GOTG2 level multi which wasn’t as hyped, had similar reception and had a much lower OW. I do think it’s doing really well, and even just under 500m would be a great result. That’s a lot of money and really profitable for Disney.

Did I ever officially join that club? I’ve definitely been in since BP’s release and entertained the idea pre-release BP

I think it’s fair to say we all have good calls and bad calls. You’ve had some good calls lately, and each of those was fairly well in advance. Those three breakouts I saw too, you just hit the nail more on the head with BP and AQP

He mentioned that the club wasn’t as crazy as some people made it out to be, mixed with saying he thought 248m+ was close to locked.

Im partially rooting for IW not to be #1 of the summer because it’s always funny when the consensus choice for #1 turns out wrong. Oddly enough that’s been the case since 2014. 2017: Most had GOTG2 at #1 (WW won) 2016: Most had Civil War at #1 (Dory won) 2015: Most had Age of Ultron at #1 (JW won) 2014: Most had one of HTTYD2/Transformers/TASM2/DOFP at #1 (GOTG won)

I commend you, you stuck to your gut and will reap the rewards. I caved and went just under TFA’s OW. Won’t kill my Summer game, I think it should still net some points. Im just hoping I was right to stick with my instinct and put I2 DOM over IW for it.

He also said the OW record was a near lock and 300m was definitely in play.

Disappointed I didn’t go with my original Summer game IW predict of 235m / 520m. At least I didn’t up it to much, predicted 245m / 545m

I wonder if IW will be like Han’s anti-WW, constantly overshooting what’ll actually be in reality.

He did his shit, all of it

You forgot @That Ambitious Guy Being threadbanned for all his shit.

I think there’s potential for A4, TLK or IX to break the OW record next year (maybe not the Adjusted one, but I think ticket price inflation will put it in play). I think this year was a bit too early. That being said we do only have a preview number and there’s always the potential the weekend goes crazy and we get a 260m OW or something. But I’m think 215-255m or so is the likely range

I’m not in anyway saying under 200m is realistic. I’m saying 190m isn’t impossible given previous high preview movies. Only casuals Sith deal in absolutes.

Its not a letdown and shouldn’t be seen as one. But when for the last month you’ve had a large group of members claim OW record was the floor and 300m OW was a real possibility then of course people are going to cry disappointment. They created crazy expectations. Even during TFA’s insane run, there were a few members who were unimpressed because our predictions got way out of hand (even for a movie that did insane numbers).

I have to say, everyone’s hype made my OW predict for the Summer game slowly creep up from 225m-230m to 245m. I’m again feeling regret for not going with my initial prediction and letting the mood of the forum sway my prediction.

I think with 39m previews that puts a realistic IW OW range somewhere between 215m - 250m Absolute lowest I could see it going is around 190-200m. Absolute highest I could see it go is around 270m (if it’s IM really does end up playing more like AoU or Civil War) But I wouldn’t bet on anything outside a 215-250m which puts the OW record in play but a stretch.

More than TFA DOM? I don’t like using the term “not a chance” or “close to zero”, as I think there’s always some probability (no matter how slight) of something happening but I’d personally think closer to 0% than 1%. WW there’s potentially a slight chance, but I still wouldn’t bet on it (near 2b is insane, especially with a stronger dollar than 2015$ Internationally there’s some potential, but even that isn’t easy.

I think we should be careful about using other Marvel IM as direct comparisons. Internal Multipliers are smaller based off of how large previews are. 40m is much higher than any other Marvel preview. Maybe that indicates more interest, which to be fair I think OW Interest is higher than any marvel movie besides TA, but it’s still much easier to have a larger IM when previews are smaller. Theres plenty of reason to believe (based off perceived finale factor, big emphasis on not being spoiled, being the most fan oriented Marvel movie) that IW is going to be much more internally frontloaded than previous Marvel films. I think the large previews could translate to IW matching around the BvS IM (as BvS may have had Good Friday and Bad WoM, but it also had smaller previews in compensation) In an extreme case it may even match a Star Wars or Harry Potter IM, as its previews are at a SW or HP level. But I’m still going to think it does a bit better there. Maybe I’ll be wrong and it’ll pull a typical Marvel IM, but I don’t think the expectation should be 7x Previews when the previews are this big.

Taking that square in the middle Thu: 42.5m Fri: 66m Sat: 72m Sun: 59m Wknd: 239.5m

FTFY

As long as you’re going overload and swearing every other word you’re fine.

To break the record it’ll have to really outperform that model to make up for previews being lower than TFA

I’m thinking about making a Venom over SM3 DOM club

When it comes to IMAX these are the movies I’ve seen in IMAX Avatar Gravity Interstellar The Walk The Force Awakens x4 Fantastic Beasts Rogue One Dunkirk The Last Jedi