The Panda

I honestly think I2 has been doing a better job at marketing itself than Dory, IO, Cars 3 and Coco.

Disney has two films to focus on prior to this. The marketing has been effective at building up buzz and awareness, that’s all it needs to do until around May.

Trailer views don’t appear to be entirely meaningless, but once you factor in sequel their meaning is partially reduced. They’re a factor you can use but I wouldn’t predict based off of them. Maybe when I’m able to add more data points later this week genre will pop out as significant. But I don’t see why it would be (at least in the modern environment) besides maybe being a comic book movie. But again I need more data points for this to really work as well as it needs to. I’m also looking to factor in things like studio and such when I actually run it with full data but excel sucks and limited me to 16 variables

Currently updating an old data set and adding in some new variables suggested. So far, this is limited, but critic scores (using metacritic) and a movie being a sequel (as well as how much its predecessor made) are turning out to be the two main significant variables. Way to early for any certainty on this (only like 60 data points that im looking at rn, so grain of salt), but it'd match common sense. A movie's general reception and its built in fanbase would be the obvious variables to determine box office gross. When I finish building the dataset I'll run it in a more advanced statistical software than excel, so I can test more than 16 variables and do so much more accurately. Currently though, I also found cinemascore to insignificant, trailer views to be nearly significant, genre to be insignificant. All of this is a grain of salt, this is a very preliminary dataset using a bad software to run any kind of good statistical analysis.

Now that this is an evil Disney movie it’ll have a 100% because Disney will pay all of the critics, right @IronJimbo ?

We can choose I Feel Pretty, correct?

So Projection for the rest of BP’s run lets say 10.8m this week so it’s at 676.4m 7.6m for 684m the next week Double features carry it to 689.7m with 5.7m the next week One last good drop before vod goes to 4m and 693.7m 2m the next week to 695.7m Then it collapses and finishes at a grand total of 696.9m

Guaranteed Top 15. There’s a small chance AM2 could miss that (I don’t think it will lol). I probably shouldn’t have put mission impossible as guaranteed either.

You’re thinking of the inferior bear movie

Blockers doesn’t have a 100% on RT, but guess which movie does...

To reach 100m ICOI needs a 4.64x Multi off of this weekend. Not easily but doable based off these great drops, especially since that’s a 20% drop from Easter Weekend.

This is how I judge cinemtagraphy ”Looks pretty, pretty colors, wow lots of scenery, that’d be a great Instagram pic” = GOOD ”That’s ugly, ew blurry, a 7th grader would post that on Instagram” = BAD

Blade Runner Dunkirk Mudbound The Shape of Water The Darkest Hour

I presented my research at a conference yesterday, people were being particularly harsh with their questions to others. When I finished mine I got 3 or 4 ones that seemed like softball questions. I asked my advisor later why he thought they went easy on me, he said “I don’t think they did. I just think you scared them away with the math, so they weren’t able to be douches.” I felt accomplished about that. Scaring the douches away with math.

That’s true but a lot of the Oscar noms aren’t much better so?

I think it’s too early to say anything’s a given or empty, we have little indication of what’ll actually be on the radar in 6-7 months

Let’s be honest, just getting one great blockbuster nominated should be considered a win

Yeah, I think AQP lacks the social relevance to pull at Get Out at the Oscars unless this awards season is really dead. I also think it’ll be overshadowed by BP as the early blockbuster pick.

Probably will win sound editing and sound mixing

I’m letting all this game get to my head

Title should be updated to say ”Critically Acclaimed Pandas, 100% Tomatometer”

I'd also like to point out, not only is pandas at 100% on RT, it has an 8.8 average rating, 82 on metacritc "By the time it's all said and done, you don't just want to help save the pandas, you want to take one home with you." "The film creates an immersive experience with sweeping views of the mountains of Sichuan, but while the scenery is stunning, the focus stays on the bamboo-loving Qian Qian and her struggles in her new environment." "About as perfect as IMAX nature documentaries can get: informative, family-friendly, beautifully and immersively photographed, and so adorable that my scribbled screening notes are full of trenchant observations like "SO FUZZY!"" "Beyond its awesome cuteness factor, "Pandas" dramatizes the benefits of cross-cultural cooperation, showing a path forward for similar endangered species." "Hands down the cutest movie of the year." "Chronicling the challenges faced by Chinese researchers in regard to preparing captive-bred giant pandas for release into the wild, the involving, breathtakingly photographed documentary makes the most of its allotted 43-minute running time." "Pandas, the latest large-screen doc, [is] which is just about everything you could hope for in a cute-umentary."

I put my soul into the movie, that's why

Even if Solo bombs it’ll be over 100m lol

Should be On Everyone’s list Infinity War Deadpool 2 Solo The Incredibles 2 Jurassic World 2 MI: Fallout Solid Bets (but not a guarantee) Ocean’s 8 Ant-Man 2 Hotel Transylvania 3 Skyscraper Wild Card and Dark Horse Movies I Feel Pretty Tully Life of the Party Breaking In Action Point Hereditary Tag Sicario 2 Uncle Drew The First Purge Equalizer 2 Mamma Mia 2 The Spy Who Dumped Me Christopher Robin The Meg Like normal about 10 movies people will feel confident in (and a solid chance at least one of them ends up underperforming and missing the top 15), and a bunch of wild cards for the last 5 slots