The Panda

It's always possible there's nothing more to the allegations than what we know rn and he's simply temporarily standing down to weather the storm. I feel like if there was more, more would be coming rn.

That honestly just sounds like fan rationalization for CW and IW imo. CW behaved like a sequel to AoU, not TWS.

But can Lady Bird beat Toy Story 2's review record adjusted to inflation

1. Not necessarily, GOTG has much more Outside appeal from non-fans of the franchise as it doesn't require somebody to see 10 different movies to get what's going on. The core Marvel fan base that is excited for IW also saw Guardians 2 2. It will in the fact that IW requires even more movies to see than CW, diminishing returns. The higher the amount of movies needed to see to understand the movie, the more you limit Outside appeal and the lower the ceiling

It could open over Civil War, yet still finish below. Its a big event for fans that probably won't mean as much to a GA member.

That's a possibility, but I think it'll require IW to be poorly received on top of the other leg issues.

I'm not expecting great numbers for the other Superhero movies outside those four (and maybe Aquaman, due to its Christmas date).

This is true and a rather stupid bias. Money is money, I'd rather have It (which released in September) than have any of the Summer blockbusters this year (besides WW, SMH and GOTG2. Even then, It's just as good, if not better, of a deal due to its low budget)

Thor's a solo movie, and it's legs aren't stellar but they aren't terrible (showing some frontloadedness, but not to a drastic level like CW. It's a lot easier to follow for a GA member). Also, Civil War was advertised on the posted as being Iron Man and Cap, the Avengers stuff was all over the marketing for the movie, audiences were aware. This also isn't DH Part 2, it's more like DH Part 1. And to follow the MJ comparison, MJ1 decreased from CF, even though CF was really well received. I also don't think Harry Potter or Hunger Games are the best comps for MCU, in which its films perform differently. I think a mild increase (around 5-10m) from CW is the best case for Infinity War, I could always be wrong, but I don't think there's any room for Infinity War to grow from CW. Even taking repeat viewings in account, Part 1 is bound to be a more serious MCU movie (similar to CW) where the heroes don't win (as you need them to win in Part 2), which definitely hurts repeat viewings compared to upbeat movies. I am being optimistic on DP2, but I'll stick with it.

That's why I'm not giving it a ridiculous drop off like JL. I was just using it as an example that being a cross-over movie doesn't guarantee anything. Infinity War is also a sequel, it's also a Part 1 film (cliffhangers don't seem to bode well for legs), and it's a massive crossover, which will make it the least GA accessible MCU movie yet.

I also don't think May is that barren. There's a Melissa McCarthy comedy, if it's decent then it'll pull good numbers, the week after. I'd wait until marketing comes in, but Slenderman could do good numbers. Then of course Solo will be large. A barren May also doesn't guarantee people will go see Infinity War because there's nothing to see. As we've seen this year, people will probably just not see anything at all until something appealing comes out.

Civil War did less than Iron Man 3, JL did less than every DCEU movie, and AoU dropped from TA by a large margin (and it was the second most accessible of the major crossover films, with TA being the most). Maybe it could do a little better, but Guardians 2 had the benefit of being able to appeal to non-Marvel fans. Anywhere in the 375m - 405m range wouldn't surprise me, 380m is just my predict for now.

I don't think Solo opening before will make it more frontloaded, and I think it's a nice rated R countermarket to TI2 and JW2. Now, I may be highballing Deadpool 2, it's still pretty early and we don't have a real trailer yet.

I think that'll probably help it. It's not the young kids buying the tickets, it's their parents. Being an appealing movie to the family, while also being enjoyable by the parents, is essential for an animated movie's WoM (the other being not having any competition, which Coco does not). I think it should be fine. Parents will be more likely to recommend a movie to other families if they can get enjoyment out of the movie too.

I don't think it's underpredicted at all. I'm seeing people give it crazy 500m+ prediction, which are not in line at all with movies like Civil War and AoU (Its two best comps). As you see with JL, there's no reason a team up movie has to gangbuster numbers just because the solo movies did (WW). There's room for movies like SM:H, GOTG2, Thor: Ragnarok, etc. to succeed and have decent legs because they don't have a high 'barrier of entry' in order to see the movies. You saw it with both AoU and Civil War, even with really strong reception, there's just so many movies you have to keep up to date with in order to follow the 'climax' crossover movies that it really limits appeal of anybody outside of the fanbase (who are seeing these solo movies as well). It's the reason Civil War had terrible legs, despite being a really well-received movie. I think this effect can only get worse with Infinity War, because it requires even more movies for a GA to see in order to follow it and appreciate it. I'm not doubting Marvel, I'm still predicting a large 380m total (off of a large 180m OW), but I'm not sold that it can perform as well as Civil War. Infinity War is a movie strictly for the fans, and that's fine, but it does mean it has a set ceiling.

Infinity War, similar to Civil War and AoU, has a cap due to being a crossover movie. There's a large 'barrier of entry' to seeing that movie, in that you need to see a lot of Marvel movies in order to get whats going on. There's no reason to expect legs any better than Civil War, as a matter of fact they're likely to be worse (no matter the quality of the movie). Deadpool has room to grow and will be a rated R counter appeal to everything else around it. It has more room for stronger legs.

I also don't have Infinity War (or the other two MCU movies) in the top 5 DOM of 2018 *Gasps*

3-4m could go either way. You have to pay attention throughout the movie's run, some movies won't build up hype until a week or so before (like Get Out), some do so well in advance. I do think trailer views are probably the most consistent metric for looking for a breakout. Obviously not the only one you should use, but good trailer views (especially relative to similar films of that demo) are strong indications of a high opening. For example, Incredibles 2 has more views than Dory right now, and so while I'm not sold it will open higher than Dory, I do think over 100m is happening for sure. Probably in the 110-125m range.

2018 looks like it could be a solid year for non-comic book and Star Wars movies if some of these titles can deliver. A Quiet Place, Annihilation, and Red Sparrow all look great And things like Ready Player One, A Wrinkle in Time Mary Poppins Returns, The Grinch, Mortal Engines and First Man all could be big hits. Then of course things like Jurassic World 2, The Incredibles 2, Solo, Deadpool 2, Black Panther, and Infinity War will be huge

Updating my predicts January Insidious: The Last Key - 20.5m / 45.1m The Commuter - 14.5m / 40m Paddington 2 - 24.2m / 86.4m Proud Mary - 17.2m / 48m 12 Strong - 28.4m / 90.88m Maze Runner: The Death Cure - 25.4m / 73m February 2017 Cloverfield - 30.5m / 89m Winchester - 12.5m / 28m The 15:17 to Paris - 18.5m / 65m Fifty Shades Freed - 44.2m / 104m Peter Rabbit - 35.2m / 126.7m Black Panther - 115.2m / 320.3m Early Man - 14.2m / 48m Samson - 7.2m / 30.4m Annihilation - 32.5m / 107.3m The War With Grandpa - 7.2m / 14.5m March Red Sparrow - 35m / 122.5m Death Wish - 17m / 36m Game Night - 32m / 115.2m Alpha - 26m / 77m The Upside - 12m / 26m A Wrinkle in Time - 34m / 118m Tomb Raider - 32m / 88m Pacific Rim: Uprising - 28m / 55m Sherlock Gnomes - 26m / 85m God's Not Dead 3 - 6m / 15m Ready Player One - 45m / 140m Paul, Apostle of Christ - 28m / 92m April Blockers - 16m / 35m A Quiet Place - 28m / 106.4m New Mutants - 34m / 85m Rampage - 47m / 130m May Avengers: Infinity War - 180m / 387m Life of the Party - 32m / 106m Slenderman - 40m / 102m A Star is Born - 22m / 57m Solo: A Star Wars Story - 155m / 426.25m June Deadpool 2 - 145.2m / 390.6m Ocean's 8 - 28.4m / 82m The Incredibles 2 - 122m / 434.2m Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - 145m / 391.5m Sicario 2: Soldado - 15m / 48m Tag - 17m / 34m July Ant-Man and the Wasp - 68m / 190.8m The Spy Who Dumped Me - 37m / 140.6m Hotel Transylvania 3 - 37m / 125.8m The Nun - 40.7m / 109.8m Skyscraper - 36m / 100m Alita: Battle Angel - 28m / 88m Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again - 30m / 106.5m Mission: Impossible 6 - 45m / 162m August The Equalizer 2 - 27m / 85m The Predator - 38m / 100m Christopher Robin - 27m / 105.3m The Meg - 26m / 87m Scarface - 18m / 55m September The Goosebumps 2 - 31m / 101m Robin Hood - 25m / 66m Smallfoot - 26m / 76m October Venom - 55m / 148.5m First Man - 48m / 211.5m Halloween - 34m / 88m Jungle Book: Origins - 27m / 55m Overlord - 28m / 117.6m November Dark Phoenix - 54m / 132.3m The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 35m / 133m Dr. Seuss' The Grinch - 105m / 405.2m Holmes & Watson - 28m / 86m Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindewald - 81m / 222.7m Widows - 17m / 64m Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 53m / 201.4m December Animated Spider-Man - 47m / 160m Mortal Engines - 65m / 234m Aquaman - 60m / 226.8m Bumblebee - 26m / 95m Mary Poppins Returns - 67m / 308m Bohemian Rhapsody - 21m / 87m The Incredibles 2 - 434.2m Solo: A Star Wars Story - 426.3m Dr. Seuss' The Grinch - 405.2m Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - 391.5m Deadpool 2 - 390.6m Avengers: Infinity War - 387m Black Panther - 320.3m Mary Poppins Returns - 308m Mortal Engines - 234m Aquaman - 226.8m Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindewald - 222.7m First Man - 211.5m Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 201.4m Ant-Man and the Wasp - 190.8m Mission Impossible 6 - 162m Animated Spider-Man - 160m Venom - 148.5m The Spy Who Dumped Me - 140.6m Ready Player One - 140m The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 133m Dark Phoenix - 132.3m Rampage - 130m Peter Rabbit - 126.7m Hotel Transylvania 3 - 125.8m Red Sparrow - 122.5m A Wrinkle in Time - 118m Overlord - 117.6m Game Night - 115.2m The Nun - 109.8m Annihilation -107.3m Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again - 106.5m A Quiet Place - 106.4m Life of the Party - 106m Christopher Robin - 105.3m Fifty Shades Freed - 104m Slenderman - 102m The Goosebumps 2 - 101m Skyscraper - 100m The Predator - 100m

Speaking of random trailers, this John Krasinski film actually looks pretty solid

Oh boy, Pure Flix has gone edgy! (and of course they casted colored parts white)

Going to rename the thread so it's just a basic predict thread for everyone

At least 2019 looks glorious (until everything bombs)? It's kind of like the 2014 before 2015.