The Panda

Oddly enough, I don't think Get Out or Dunkirk getting an ensemble nod is that far-fetched. Especially since it's turned into the equivalent of SAG's BP nom (it's hard to think of examples of BP winners that missed a SAG ensemble nod). The only issue are there are a lot of ensemble/performance driven movies this year. However, even if Get Out and Dunkirk aren't specifically performance driven, they have relatively wide casts of good performances and they're BP favorites. Neither are shoe-ins at all for a nod, but I wouldn't be surprised if one happens. I also think they have goodbodds because of things like Grand Budapest Hotel, Hidden Figures and Straight Outta Compton (and others) that go ensemble nods in the past. They weren't big acting players individually, but they still got ensemble nods.

I hope James Franco wins the Oscar and has Tommy accept the reward on his behalf.

Genuine tears of being moved by powerful emotions!

Are you implying that any of those moments didn't bring me to tears??

North Texas Film Critics Association Nominations BEST ACTOR James Franco / The Disaster Artist Jake Gyllenhaal / Stronger Tom Hanks/ The Post Hugh Jackman / Logan Daniel Kaluuya / Get Out James McAvoy / Split Kumail Nanijiani / The Big Sick Gary Oldman / Darkest Hour Robert Pattinson / Good Time Jeremy Renner / Wind River Andy Serkis / War for the Planet of the Apes BEST ACTRESS Jessica Chastain / Molly’s Game Judi Dench / Victoria & Abdul Gal Gadot / Wonder Woman Jennifer Lawrence / Mother! Frances McDormand / Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Brooklynn Prince / The Florida Project Margot Robbie / I, Tonya Saoirse Ronan / Lady Bird Emma Stone / Battle of the Sexes Meryl Streep / The Post BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Mary J. Blige / Mudbound Holly Hunter / The Big Sick Allison Janney / I, Tonya Nicole Kidman / The Killing of a Sacred Deer Tatiana Maslany / Stronger Laurie Metcalf / Lady Bird Octavia Spencer / The Shape of Water Tilda Swinton / Okja Kristin Scott Thomas / Darkest Hour Bria Vinaite / The Florida Project Allison Williams / Get Out BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Steve Carell / Battle of the Sexes Daniel Craig / Logan Lucky Bryan Cranston / Last Flag Flying Willem Dafoe / The Florida Project Idris Elba / Molly’s Game Will Poulter / Detroit Sam Rockwell / Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Ray Romano / The Big Sick Mark Rylance / Dunkirk Patrick Stewart / Logan BEST DIRECTOR Sean Baker / The Florida Project Guillermo del Toro / The Shape of Water Greta Gerwig / Lady Bird Patty Jenkins / Wonder Woman Christopher Nolan / Dunkirk Jordan Peele / Get Out Steven Spielberg / The Post Aaron Sorkin / Molly’s Game Denis Villeneuve / Blade Runner 2049 Joe Wright / Darkest Hour BEST PICTURE Baby Driver / Edgar Wright The Big Sick / Michael Showalter Dunkirk / Christopher Nolan Get Out / Jordan Peele The Florida Project / Sean Baker Lady Bird /Greta Gerwig Logan / James Mangold The Post / Steven Spielberg The Shape of Water / Guillermo del Toro Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri / Martin McDonagh BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Thimios Bakatakis / The Killing of a Sacred Deer Roger Deakins / Blade Runner 2049 Hoyte Van Hoytema / Dunkirk Matthew Jensen / Wonder Woman Dan Laustsen / The Shape of Water Janusz Kaminski / The Post Michael Seresin / War for the Planet of the Apes BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM First They Killed My Father /Cambodia Into the Fade / Germany Menashe / Yiddish Raw / France The Square / Sweden BEST DOCUMENTARY Abacus: Small Enough to Jail / Steve James Chasing Coral / Jeff Orlowski City of Ghosts / Matthew Heineman Cries from Syria / Evgeny Afineevsky An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power / Bonni Cohen and Jon Shenk Jane / Brett Morgan Step /Amanda Lipitz BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Breadwinner / Nora Twomey Cars 3 / Brian Fee Coco / Lee Unkrich & Adrian Molina Despicable Me 3 / Kyle Balda & Pierre Coffin & Eric Guillon The LEGO Batman Movie / Chris McKay Loving Vincent / Dorota Kobiela & Hugh Welchman

2017 CHICAGO FILM CRITICS ASSOCIATION AWARD NOMINATIONS BEST PICTURE Call Me By Your Name Dunkirk Lady Bird The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri BEST DIRECTOR Guillermo Del Toro (-) The Shape of Water Greta Gerwig (-) Lady Bird Luca Guadagnino (-) Call Me By Your Name Christopher Nolan (-) Dunkirk Jordan Peele (-) Get Out BEST ACTRESS Sally Hawkins (-) The Shape of Water Vicky Krieps (-) Phantom Thread Frances McDormand (-) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Margot Robbie (-) I, Tonya Saoirse Ronan (-) Lady Bird BEST ACTOR Timothee Chalamet (-) Call Me By Your Name Daniel Day-Lewis (-) Phantom Thread James Franco (-) The Disaster Artist Gary Oldman (-) Darkest Hour Harry Dean Stanton (-) Lucky BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Mary J. Blige (-) Mudbound Holly Hunter (-) The Big Sick Allison Janney (-) I, Tonya Lesley Manville (-) Phantom Thread Laurie Metcalf (-) Lady Bird BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Willem Dafoe (-) The Florida Project Armie Hammer (-) Call Me By Your Name Jason Mitchell (-) Mudbound Sam Rockwell (-) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Michael Stuhlbarg (-) Call Me By Your Name BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Blade Runner 2049 (-) Hampton Fancher & Michael Green Call My By Your Name (-) James Ivory The Disaster Artist (-) Scott Neustadta & Michael H. Weber Logan (-) Scott Frank, James Mangold & Michael Green Mudbound (-) Virgil Williams & Dee Rees BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY The Big Sick (-) Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanijani Get Out (-) Jordan Peele Lady Bird (-) Greta Gerwig Phantom Thread (-) Paul Thomas Anderson The Shape of Water (-) Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-) Martin McDonagh BEST ANIMATED FILM The Breadwinner Coco The LEGO Batman Movie Loving Vincent Your Name BEST DOCUMENTARY Abacus: Small Enough to Jail City of Ghosts Ex Libris: New York Public Library Faces Places Jane Kedi BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM BPM (Beats Per Minute) A Fantastic Woman Loveless Raw The Square BEST ART DIRECTION Beauty and the Beast Blade Runner 2049 Dunkirk Phantom Thread The Shape of Water BEST EDITING Baby Driver (-) Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss Call Me By Your Name (-) Walter Fasano Dunkirk (-) Lee Smith The Florida Project (-) Sean Baker Get Out (-) Gregory Plotkin BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Blade Runner 2049 (-) Benjamin Walifisch & Hans Zimmer Dunkirk (-) Hans Zimmer Phantom Thread (-) Johnny Greenwood The Shape of Water (-) Alexandre Desplat War For the Planet of the Apes (-) Michael Giacchino BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Blade Runner 2049 (-) Roger Deakins Dunkirk (-) Hoyte Van Hoyteme The Florida Project (-) Alexis Zabe Mudbound (-) Rachel Morrison The Shape of Water (-) Dan Laustsen MOST PROMISING PERFORMER Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name Dafne Keen, Logan Jessie Pinnick, Princess Cyd Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project Florence Pugh, Lady Macbeth Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project MOST PROMISING FILMMAKER Kogonada, Columbus Jordan Peele, Get Out Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird John Carroll Lynch, Lucky Julia Ducournau, Raw

St Louis Film Critic Nominations BEST FILM Get Out Lady Bird The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri BEST DIRECTOR Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird Jordan Peele – Get Out Steven Spielberg – The Post Denis Villeneuve – Blade Runner 2049 BEST ACTOR Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread James Franco – The Disaster Artist Tom Hanks – The Post Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour BEST ACTRESS Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird Kristen Stewart – Personal Shopper Meryl Streep – The Post BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Hong Chau – Downsizing Holly Hunter – The Big Sick Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY The Big Sick - Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani Get Out - Jordan Peele Lady Bird - Greta Gerwig The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Williams Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Martin McDonagh BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Call Me By Your Name - James Ivory (Screenplay); André Aciman (Novel) The Disaster Artist - Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber (Screenplay); Greg Sestero and Tom Bissell (Book) It - Chase Palmer & Cary Fukunaga and Gary Dauberman (Screenplay); Stephen King (Novel) Molly’s Game - Aaron Sorkin (Screenplay); Molly Bloom (Book) Mudbound - Virgil Williams and Dee Rees (Screenplay); Hillary Jordan (Novel) BEST EDITING Baby Driver - Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss Darkest Hour - Valerio Bonelli Dunkirk - Lee Smith The Post - Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn The Shape of Water - Sidney Wolinsky BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Blade Runner 2049 - Roger Deakins Darkest Hour - Bruno Delbonnel Dunkirk - Hoyte Van Hoytema The Shape of Water - Dan Laustsen Wonder Wheel - Vittorio Storaro BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Beauty and the Beast - Sarah Greenwood Blade Runner 2049 - Dennis Gassner Dunkirk - Nathan Crowley Phantom Thread - Mark Tildesley The Shape of Water - Paul D. Austerberry BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Beauty and the Beast Blade Runner 2049 Dunkirk The Shape of Water War for the Planet of the Apes BEST SCORE Blade Runner 2049 - Benjamin Wallfisch and Hans Zimmer Dunkirk - Hans Zimmer Phantom Thread - Jonny Greenwood The Post - John Williams The Shape of Water- Alexandre Desplat BEST SOUNDTRACK Atomic Blonde Baby Driver Coco Guardians and the Galaxy Vol. 2 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Coco Despicable Me 3 The LEGO Batman Movie Loving Vincent BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE City of Ghosts Jane Last Men in Aleppo Never Say Goodbye: The KSHE Documentary Whose Streets? BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM First They Killed My Father Frantz Graduation Land of Mine The Square BEST SCENE Atomic Blonde - Stairwell fight. Baby Driver - Baby (Ansel Elgort) goes for coffee (opening credits). Call Me By Your Name - Mr. Perlman’s (Michael Stuhlbarg) closing monologue. The Disaster Artist - 67 takes of “I did not hit her”. Lady Bird - Chalk talk for ‘The Tempest’.

Unless Odenkirk gets a SAG, he's not getting in. Stewart and Stuhlberg are bigger threats.

The Post hasn't been big with the Critic noms. It'll obviously change positions as guild noms come in. My method also doesn't have Pfieffer getting a nod.

I also still have The Big Sick at number 9, though it's getting a lot of extra weight from its Critics Choice and AFI appearances (although both are also good indicators). However, I am not convinced there will be 9 nominees. As of now, the cumulative rankings for BP nods so far have The Post at 8 sitting comfortably ahead of the Big Sick, yet competitively close with Dunkirk, Three Billboards and The Shape of Water (With Get Out, Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird all relatively competitive for the number 1 slot, and The Florida Project between those groups) If you weight the cumulative awards systems they would have predicted all of the BP winners this decade I believe (besides maybe Moonlight depending on how you weight the awards, but then the non-weighted cumulative system would predict Moonlight). However, it's obviously early as we don't have any guilds to factor in.

Call Me by Your Name is the present winner. It's premature to say Get Out isn't in contention for a Screenplay win. When looking at weighted collected wins (meaning Globes and Critics Choice get much more weight than individual critic circles) so far, Get Out is still leading by a comfortable margin (and that's putting all screenplay nods into one cat). I'd still predict Get Out to win Screenplay in February, as of right now.

Some pretty odd snubs and inclusions all around (plus I'm wondering how much of Peele missing has to do with his griping about being in best comedy). BPM missed foreign, All the Money in the World getting in, The Big Sick being shut out, Washington getting in, etc. Still giving it more weight than Critics Choice (which is what I'm currently weighting the highest) though.

Lololol, I'm iffy on how much I should weight the predictive value of the globes after these nods. There's not much of an actual reason why they should be predicative.

Revenge of the Sith, just a few of the parts that got me

I have Kaluuya in the 5th slot over Hanks, I'd also say Get Out is the OS frontrunner right now. It's winning precursors there fairly consistently. I'd also say Get Out has a decent shot at a BP win, based on the info rn.

Toronto Film Critic Association Winners Best Picture: The Florida ProjectBest Director: Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)Best Male Performance: Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)Best Female Performance: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)Best Male Supporting Performance: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)Best Female Supporting Performance: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)Best Screenplay (Adapted or Original): Get OutBest First Feature: Get OutBest Animated Feature: The BreadwinnerBest Documentary: Faces PlacesBest Foreign Film: The Square

New York Film Critics Online Winners Best Picture (TIE) The Florida Project Mudbound Best Director Dee Rees, Mudbound Best Actor Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Best Actress Margot Robbie, I, Tonya Best Supporting Actor Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Best Supporting Actress Allison Janney, I, Tonya Bes Screenplay Jordan Peele, Get Out Best Breakthrough Performer Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name Best Debut Director Jordan Peele, Get Out Best Ensemble Cast Mudbound Best Documentary Bombshell: The Hedy Lamarr Story Best Foreign Language In the Fade Best Animated Coco Best Cinematography Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water Best Use of Music Steven Price (music by) and Kristen Lane (music supervisor), Baby Driver Top 10 Films of 2017 Call Me by Your Name Dunkirk The Florida Project Get Out I, Tonya Lady Bird Mudbound Phantom Thread The Post The Shape of Water

It's a very good movie, I think it's less that critics are fawning over it and more that it's widely appealing. There aren't any polarizing decisions made in the movie that could turn some people off. That's both a good thing and a bad thing.

San Francisco Film Critics Circle announced their winners (they previously just gave their nominations). Andy Serkis gets a BA win Best Picture CALL ME BY YOUR NAMETHE FLORIDA PROJECT – winner GET OUT THE SHAPE OF WATER THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Best Director Sean Baker – THE FLORIDA PROJECTGuillermo del Toro – THE SHAPE OF WATER – winner Greta Gerwig – LADY BIRD Christopher Nolan – DUNKIRK Jordan Peele – GET OUT Best Actor Timothee Chalamet – CALL ME BY YOUR NAME James Franco – THE DISASTER ARTIST Daniel Kaluuya – GET OUT Gary Oldman – DARKEST HOURAndy Serkis – WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES – winner Best Actress Annette Bening – FILM STARS DON’T DIE IN LIVERPOOL Sally Hawkins – THE SHAPE OF WATER Frances McDormand – THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURIMargot Robbie – I, TONYA – winner Saoirse Ronan – LADY BIRD Best Supporting Actor Willem Dafoe – THE FLORIDA PROJECT – winner Armie Hammer – CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Richard Jenkins – THE SHAPE OF WATER Sam Rockwell – THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Michael Stuhlbarg – CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Best Supporting Actress Holly Hunter – THE BIG SICK Allison Janney – I, TONYA Melissa Leo – NOVITIATE Lesley Manville – PHANTOM THREADLaurie Metcalf – LADY BIRD – winner Best Foreign Language FilmBPM – winner A FANTASTIC WOMAN FRANTZ IN THE FADE THE SQUARE Best Animated Feature THE BREADWINNERCOCO – winner THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE LOVING VINCENT YOUR NAME Best Documentary BRIMSTONE & GLORY CITY OF GHOSTS DAWSON CITY: FROZEN TIMEFACES PLACES – winner JANE Best CinematographyBLADE RUNNER 2049 – Roger Deakins – winner DUNKIRK – Hoyte van Hoytema THE FLORIDA PROJECT – Alexis Zabe THE SHAPE OF WATER – Dan Laustsen WONDER WHEEL – Vittorio Storaro Best Production Design BLADE RUNNER 2049 – Dennis Gassner DUNKIRK – Nathan Crowley PHANTOM THREAD – Mark TildesleyTHE SHAPE OF WATER – Paul D. Austerberry – winner WONDERSTRUCK – Mark Friedberg Best EditingBABY DRIVER – Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos – winner BLADE RUNNER 2049 – Joe Walker DUNKIRK – Lee Smith THE POST – Michael Kahn THE SHAPE OF WATER – Sidney Wolinsky Best Screenplay (original) THE BIG SICK – Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. GordonGET OUT – Jordan Peele – winner LADY BIRD – Greta Gerwig THE SHAPE OF WATER – Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI – Martin McDonagh Best Screenplay (adapted) THE DISASTER ARTIST – Scott Neustadter and Michael H. WeberCALL ME BY YOUR NAME – James Ivory – winner MOLLY’S GAME – Aaron Sorkin MUDBOUND – Dee Rees and Virgil Williams WONDERSTRUCK – Brian Selznick Best Original Score BLADE RUNNER 2049 – Hans Zimmer and Benjamin Wallfisch DUNKIRK – Hans ZimmerPHANTOM THREAD – Jonny Greenwood – winner THE SHAPE OF WATER – Alexandre Desplat WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES – Michael Giacchino Special Citation (for that underappreciated indie gem)BRIMSTONE & GLORY – winner COLUMBUS THE OTHER KIDS

Boston Society of Film Critic Winners, Kaluuya picks up a BA win Best Film PHANTOM THREAD Runner-up: The Shape of Water Best Director Paul Thomas Anderson, PHANTOM THREAD Runner-up: Guillermo del Toro, THE SHAPE OF WATER Best Actor Daniel Kaluuya, GET OUT Runner up: Timothée Chalamet, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME Best Actress Sally Hawkins, THE SHAPE OF WATER Runner up: Vicky Krieps, PHANTOM THREAD Best Supporting Actor Willem Dafoe, THE FLORIDA PROJECT Runner up: Sam Rockwell, THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI Best Supporting Actress Laurie Metcalf, LADY BIRD Runner-up: Allison Janney, I, TONYA Best Ensemble THE MEYEROWITZ STORIES (NEW AND SELECTED) Runner-up: BPM Best Screenplay LADY BIRD Runner up: GET OUT Best Foreign Language Film THE SQUARE Runner-up: BPM Best Documentary DAWSON CITY: FROZEN TIME Runner up: FACES PLACES Best Animated Film COCO Runner up: LOVING VINCENT Best New Filmmaker Jordan Peele (GET OUT) Best Cinematography DUNKIRK Runner-up: BLADE RUNNER 2049 Best Original Score PHANTOM THREAD Runners-up: DAWSON CITY: FROZEN TIME and THE SHAPE OF WATER Best Editing A GHOST STORY Runner up: I, TONYA

However there was one golden line when Poe says, "You're tearing me apart, Finn!" as he discovers there's another man.

Never in my life have I been so repulsed by a movie. Was Luke trying to have sex with that Porg's belly button??

What are some FYC movies for then Bamboo Awards? I am currently planning on seeing TLJ, Call Me By Your Name, Shape of Water, The Disaster Artist, Good Time, Wind River, Downsizing, A Ghost Story, Killing of the Sacred Deer and maybe Your Name before I do them later this month (Im still iffy if I want to count Your Name as 2016 or 2017) I'd especially like some FYCs of indies and foreign flicks I may be overlooking (but I need to be able to watch them before the 30th, not going to delay my end of year list into January for a movie. Never made that exception before, still won't)

Get Out gets another win from the Boston Critics Association BEST PICTURE Get Out BEST DIRECTOR Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread BEST ACTOR Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name BEST ACTRESS Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird BEST ENSEMBLE Get Out BEST SCREENPLAY Jordan Peele, Get Out BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM First The Killed My Father BEST DOCUMENTARY Faces Places BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Coco BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 BEST EDITING Lee Smith, Dunkirk BEST SCORE (TIE) Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread THE TOP TEN FILMS OF 2017 1. Get Out 2. The Florida Project 3. Call Me By Your Name 4. Lady Bird 5. Phantom Thread 6. Dunkirk 7. The Shape of Water 8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 9. A Ghost Story 10. Good Time

I believe Peele may be the only person so far who hasn't missed a BD nomination at the precursors that show all of the noms.