The Panda

Yeah I was only measuring YouTube trailer views and DOM Gross/OW. Sometime in the future I may try and do a better test with more movies (top 200), and add in a few extra variables like review, whether it's a franchise movie or not, whether it has Oscar nods or not, etc. This analysis was pretty basic.

Even with this, I'd still be hesitant to base your predictions on YT views alone. But bottom line is they are significant indicators of BO gross.

I'd try to have them in by the time ballots are due, if you could.

Here was my methodology (just so you know, it's rushed and shit, but it gives a nice picture) I took the top 50 grossing movies from 2016, and I made a table of their domestic grosses, their domestic grosses and the YouTube views from their highest viewed trailers. I then made scatteplots relating Domestic Gross (Y-Axis) to YouTube Views (X-Axis), and opening weekend gross (Y-Axis) to YouTube Views (X-Axis). I added trendlines to each, and I had excel run a simple linear regression for Domestic Gross (Y-Axis) and YouTube Views (X-Axis), and Opening Weekend (Y-Axis) and YouTube Views (X-Axis). Here is what I found, please take it with a grain of salt because there is a lot I didn't account for. First, here are my scatterplots (I didn't make them fancy or anything, default excel format with a little cleaning) Next here are my linear regression results: Domestic - Trailer Views Test Multiple R 0.56 R-Square 0.31 Adjusted R-Square 0.30 Standard Error 101787510.8 Observations: 49 Intercept Coefficient: 87,638,213.07 Standard Error: 22,095,204.1 p-value: 0.000247618*** YouTube Views Coefficient: 3.13 Standard Error: 0.67 p-value: 2.84E-05*** OW - Trailer Views Test Multiple R 0.58 R-Square 0.34 Adjusted R-Square 0.32 Standard Error 34944778.77 Observations 49 Intercept Coefficient: 25,167,190.43 Standard Error: 7,585,528.06 p-value: 0.001757171** YouTube Views Coefficient: 1.13 Standard Error: 0.23 p-value: 1.24E-05*** My Quick Analysis About This: To try to put these into terms that don't require you to know anything about statistics, this test would indicate that YouTube Trailer views are in fact good predictors of Box Office Gross, or at least correlate well with them. Not only do we know that more views on a YouTube trailer correlates with higher BoxOffice growth, we can assign a value to it. Every trailer view that a movie has should correlate to an increase of its opening weekend gross by about $1.13, assuming that the movie has a base level opening weekend of 25.2m. Obviously, this isn't a perfect fit, especially for your few large opening movies with many views, but on average this fits. Now, you also have to take into account the 7.6m standard error in the model, and that the model isn't taking into account any movie that wasn't in the top 50 for the year. There are also more factors to take into account, such as Sing's trailer for some reason having over 100m skewing the model, and obviously that movie didn't open close to 100m. Every trailer view that a movie has should correlate to an increase of its domestic gross by about $3.13, assuming the movie has a base level domestic gross of about 87.6m. As with the Opening Weekend, obviously not every movie is going to have that base for its domestic gross (as this model is only looking at the higher grossers of the year), but if we continued to add more data to the model I'd suspect that the results of how much you account YouTube views for would remain fairly constant to what it is in the top 50. The model was a slightly better fit to opening weekends rather than domestic gross, and that would make sense as WoM becomes an extra unaccounted for variable after the OW. Another neat observation Hidden Figures was the only movie to gross over 100m that didn't have at 10m trailer views. Also, your comic book movies tended to have more trailer views than movies that grosses similarly to them, while your more adult oriented films and animated films tended to have less compared to movies in a similar gross range to them. Anyways, next time you're making your predictions for the Summer game or trying to decide whether or not to be IN or OUT of a risky club, remember trailer views are a strong indicator of Box Office Gross. While, it is not a definite that a movie with more trailer views will gross higher than the one with less, on average it should. You can also assume that the opening weekend of a movie should, in almost every case, at the very least equal the amount of YT trailer views it has, if not greatly exceed it (by anywhere from 2-4xish as much). Also, if a movie is a big tentpole movie (and it's safe to assume an OW of at least 25.2m), take the number of trailer views it has, multiply it by 1.13 and add the answer to 25.2m. That should get you somewhere in the ballpark of the OW on average, however take into consideration I am looking at Trailer views after the movie had opened, plus the model doesn't work as well for your big outlier openers, so you could very easily be undershooting the OW by quite a bit. Hope you find this quick analysis useful for your box office predicting! I may do another one of these looking at Tomatometers, but that'll require a different approach than what I did for this one.

Technically you could just rank one, but if what you picked isn't one of the top 2 choices, then you're not getting your full say. I'd recommend that you just rank them all, and put the ones you haven't seen as last.

That looks really great.

More than Hunt for the Wilderpeople got in the Top 25 of 2016 list

Also I feel like if you're really against a movie winning, you probably like the movies you ranked above it more anyways.

Yeah IRV or straight Preferential wouldn't change your voting strategy, but a points system would. So that's good to clear up. We're doing Preferential/IRV, so there's no reason to rank nominees in any strategic way really, just rank them based on how you prefer them. Your number 1 choice gets all of your vote, then if it gets eliminated, your number 2, and if that's eliminated, then your number 3, and so forth. So if you liked La La Land at about 5th, but don't want to help its winning chances against your 1-4th, ranking it anywhere from 5th - 10th will have the same impact on your 1-4s chances. Thus there's no strategic gain to rank the nominees in anyway besides how you prefer them.

Yeah, or go ahead and be that go who voted without seeing. We'll never know the difference. But honestly, you're allowed to abstain from categories if you haven't seen any of the nominees in it.

Rank the nominees and pm them to both me and Spaghetti. If you haven't seen a film, you can either not rank it or rank it last.

The first movie had Valentine's Day on Saturday.

Until it gets delayed again.

Pulled these numbers out of my butt, but I don't see why not. No competition, Halloween themed to play well through October, nostalgic property, etc.

Yes. But wth I'll bite anyways 1.Avatar 2 - 130m / 520m 2.Han Solo - 180m / 500m 3.Jurassic World 2 - 175m / 410m 4.The Incredibles 2 - 110m / 400m 5.Avengers: Infinity War - 170m / 380m 6.Deadpool 2 - 145m / 350m 7.Mulan - 105m / 340m 8.Mary Poppins Returns - 70m / 310m 9.Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 65m / 285m 10.Black Panther - 105m / 280m Gigantic - 50m / 270m Scooby Doo - 50m / 260m Fantastic Beasts 2 - 85m / 255m How the Grinch Stole Christmas - 55m / 245m Animated Spider-Man - 50m / 225m The Flash - 100m / 220m Aquaman - 85m / 200m Ant-Man and the Wasp - 75m / 185m Mission: Impossible 6 - 50m / 170m Ready Player One - 45m / 160m Mortal Engines - 40m / 150m Hotel Transylvania 3 - 40m / 140m Holmes and Watson - 35m / 135m A Wrinkle in Time - 40m / 130m Life of the Party - 35m / 125m Transformers 6 - 55m / 125m Predator - 35m / 120m Anubis - 40m / 115m Larrikans - 30m / 110m Jungle Book: Origins - 30m / 105m Peter Rabbit - 25m / 100m Sherlock Gnomes - 27m / 100m Scarface - 30m / 100m Barbie - 30m / 95m Slenderman - 40m / 90m Fifty Shades Freed - 44m / 90m Maze Runner: The Death Cure - 30m / 85m Robin Hood - 32m / 82m Pacific Rim 2 - 28m / 80m The Equalizer 2 - 30m / 75m Tomb Raider - 25m / 70m

WoM for the first one was already strong though?

I realize other movies have done it combined, easily. I'm just meaning it's pretty rare for three movies to have strong openings in one weekend.

Whatever I choose it to be

2003 Epics 1.Finding Nemo 2.Return of the King 3.Kill Bill Vol 1 4.Curse of the Blackpearl 5.Master and Commander 6.The Last Samurai

Also, it's not often you have 30m, a 45m, and 55m movies opening in one weekend.

I wouldn't even say it's the second greatest epic from the year it came out honestly.

The Lion King v. Blazing Saddles Raiders of the Lost Ark v. Sleeping Beauty Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back v. Love Story The Godfather v. Independence Day Rogue One: A Star Wars Story v. Thunderball Star Wars: A New Hope v. Home Alone The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King v. Grease Jaws v. Cleopatra Doctor Zhivago v. The Exorcist Star Wars: Return of the Jedi v. Goldfinger Cinderella (1950) v. Airport Mary Poppins v. The Graduate The Dark Knight v. The Robe 101 Dalmatians v. Fantasia Jurassic Park v. Around the World in 80 Days Forrest Gump v. Star Wars: The Phantom Menace Shrek 2 v. Jurassic World Batman (1989) v. Spider-Man 2 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest v. The Bells of St. Mary's Spider-Man v. Ben-Hur Titanic v. Finding Nemo The Ten Commandments v. The Towering Inferno Pinocchio v. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs Ghostbusters v. My Fair Lady Beverly Hills Cop v. The Greatest Show on Earth The Avengers v. Animal House The Jungle Book (1967) v. The Passion of the Christ American Graffiti v. Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith Avatar v. The Sound of Music The Sting v. E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid v. Star Wars: The Force Awakens Gone with the Wind v. Bambi

Mid-50s is a great OW, and definitely keeps the LEGO franchise alive and profitable.

It'll depend on the hype and marketing leading up to it. I probably wouldn't expect much more than staying flat, though.

Sounds about right.