According to the author (on Twitter), the article's guesstimate is based on a (imo way overinflated) global P&A of 200m, plus interest on the production loan, which is an interesting point.
Yeah more realistically we're looking at closer to 600m I think. And yeah that's to break even just theatrically. Surely with COVID that goal post for blockbusters is gone now, they'll have to rely way more on all those other ancillary revenues.