Cosmonaut
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Posts posted by Cosmonaut
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My "At Least" Forecast #8 for total gross, December 26:
Name; Copies; Total gross $;
Christmas trees 3; ~1700; 26mIvan Tsarevich and the Gray Wolf 2; ~1600; 24m*Local.
**There is also a bunch of other movies, but their results not worth mentioning at all(less than 0.5m).
I don't think there is enough Bieber fans for his new movie to make it to the 0.5m, probably 0.2m, that's enough.
Openers Tuesday(ekinobilet):
1) Hobbit: DOS - $1,25m+
2) Walking with Dinosaurs 3D - $90k+
$415k+ for Frozen, $8k+ for CF.
It's nearly two weeks till Christmas here)
Plus New Year(Jan. 1) is much more popular Holiday here.
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Decent, kind-hearted movie, loved it when i was a kid.
Will watch it again on Blu-ray, just for the Dinklage))
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Openers Monday(ekinobilet):
1) Hobbit: DOS - $1,4m+
2) Walking with Dinosaurs 3D - $88k+
$408k+ for Frozen, $8,5k+ for CF.
Decent hold for Frozen.
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1) Wednesday and Thursday were both a bit overestimated
2) Lower than AUJ Saturday increase and bigger Sunday drop.
Well, we'll see, it's not the first time when even final est. lower than mine, and actuals.
Even if it's not $20m, it's still should be well over $19m.
Frozen is close to Rentrak, btw.
2 facts :
-The Russian market growth was slow
It's not a fact, it's evaluation)
And no, it wasn't that slow to blame on it, 2013 already surpassed 2012 total by 3B+ of RUB($90m+).
So it's not that surprising to see DoS not surpassing AUJ, or a little.You changed your mind quickly))
Where do you see Frozen finishing with Christmas just around the corner? 25M or more?
$22m+ is locked anyway and the real top for now is $30m, $25m barrier is likely to be passed, road to Holidays is open and local animation is set to do worse.It's still the same, $25m is definite, but it's hard to look so far into it, "Grey Wolf"(Dec. 26,local) and Tarzan(Jan. 1) by themselves are weaker, but together, they are stronger, and they will take screens(shows) away, holidays will decide if $30m is reachable or not.
AK47 assault rifle designer Kalashnikov dies at 94
R.I.P.
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Didn't someone say it would do at least $20m 5-day?
I did, actuals are always in line/higher than my min. est. from ekinobilet numbers.
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Didn't the same thing happened with Tangled? A March DVD/Blu-ray and Japanese theatres release?
Not exactly, BD release on 29, Jap. on 12, but it wasn't frontloaded because of that, http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&country=JP&id=rapunzel.htm
It actually had increased a couple of times, so release on video seems like a minor factor for Japan...
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Yes, but 5th weekend of THG was a 67% higher than CF's. That would be 30 million more from now. With Christmas boost? maybe it can reach THG and IM3, but I still have to see it
Well, competition is harsher, but $410m should be locked anyway.
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I wonder how Blu-ray release will affect gross in Japan, because right now it's set on March 18, so quality copy, maybe even with jap. subs, will be out in web before the theatrical release.
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Openers Sunday(ekinobilet):
1) Hobbit: DOS - $5,7m+
2) Walking with Dinosaurs 3D - $690k+
$2,4m+ for Frozen, $24k+ for CF.
At least $20m for Hobbit, indeed, but it's hardly $21m+, so $44m+ total is still uncertain.
Only ~45% drop for Frozen.
CF earned even less than 100k this weekend, huge ~85% drop.
Only ~60k OW for "The country of good children", bombed...
I hate you
Still, great result, although, if you adjust inflation, market growth etc., Tangled($23,3m, R730m) was bigger.
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CG was quite bad for $200m movie, even back then.
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Russia $21.2m
$21,4m
TRUE IMAX FOREVER !!!
down with fake IMAX !
Right there with you, but there is only fake IMAX for Gravity...
2014 is the last year for True IMAX, in 2015 all of them are going to
updowngrade to 4K laser projection. -
Still should be higher than 18.8 mln reported.
18.8m for 5 days? Of course it's a joke, at least 20m.
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Hobbit 2 and Frozen should smash them up
Well, Frozen will lose pretty much all big-medium size screens next weekend, as for Hobbit, it will lose majority of the big screens(shows), but it also has IMAX(until Jack Ryan), so about ~900(Frozen) and ~1800(Hobbit) copies for them next weekend.
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So, with all these numbers, what do you expect for the OW number (Hobbit)?
Slightly less than kinometro's prediction
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Openers Saturday(ekinobilet):
1) Hobbit: DOS - $6,1m+
2) Walking with Dinosaurs 3D - $580k+
$2,1m+ for Frozen, $28k+ for CF.
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Looks like TASM 2 got it all, 3 weeks of IMAX(until Godzilla), all may holidays, almost no competition even from local movies, at this point even $40m is possible, if the movie will be good(appeal to GA)...
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Openers Friday(ekinobilet):
1) Hobbit: DOS - $2,9m+
2) Walking with Dinosaurs 3D - $145k+
$620k+ for Frozen, $13,5k+ for CF.
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$280m, ~$20m from Russia.
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Kinometro released their prediction for next openers total - $19,5m+ for "Christmas Trees 3" and $24m+ for "Grey Wolf 2".
I still think "Christmas Trees 3" will top "Grey Wolf 2", OW and Total, despite much heavier direct competition on the New Year weekend.
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Openers Thursday(ekinobilet):
1) Hobbit: DOS - $2,5m+
2) Walking with Dinosaurs 3D - $100k+
*Local
$495k+ for Frozen, $8k+ for CF...
Second week is not looking good for the Hobbit, two local hits will take away a lot of screens.
Min. OW for the "Christmas Trees 3" is $8m and $5m for the "Grey Wolf" animation, Hobbit will be lucky to get more than $5m.
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Openers* Wednesday(ekinobilet):
1) Hobbit: DOS* - $2,8m+
2) Frozen - $500k+
Not even a $3m, improve over the first one, but keeping in mind frontloadness, it's kinda disappointing.
$19k+ for CF, that's it
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I am not entirely sure about one thing. Is it already a full scale release or it might expand on Thursday.
This, maybe 1-2% expand, it's not that relevant.
That's pretty much it for the CF, no showings at all in my city, it'll be lucky to earn even $150k this weekend...
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Ok. Finally some numbers here.
1.04 mln from 137 theaters reported
For comparison Frozen 197k from 221 theaters.
Possibly around 3mln Wednesday.
Well, first one earned 2,46, this one is more frontloaded, should be over 3m, besides, drop on Thursday is very likely, only Sat and Sun should surpass Wed OD.
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Kinometro predicting sky high 18,2m for the weekend(~21m for 5 days).
Russia Box Office
in International Box Office
Posted
You mean 3 other comedies?))
It's hard to say, even this prediction is out of the blue, mostly; i don't agree with kinometro's forecast, they predicted ~20m for "Trees" and ~25m for "Wolf", but since they were off with Hobbit weekend prediction by almost 2 mln, it's not really an indicator))
But i think something like this: