Cosmonaut
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Posts posted by Cosmonaut
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I think i know why i overestimate Hobbit using ekinobilet numbers, it's the same reason i overestimated HG:CF a bit, IMAX, earnings from IMAX theaters are so much bigger, than from normal theaters, and 80%+ of them should be in ekinobilet coverage, that's why other movies are in line(~10%), or well above(~85%), i should just use smaller multiplier for IMAX movies.
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What totals will DOS and Frozen be after Sunday?
Hard to tell, but should be no less than 39 and 27 mln respectively.
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Yes, cumulative Thursday should be 500+ mln RUB, $15+
So, $50m+ weekend, probably around $53m, i don't think there is a chance of $60m+.
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Openers Thursday(ekinobilet):
1) 47 Ronin - $3,2m+
2) Love in the big city 3* - $1,15m+
3) Friends of friends* - $920k+
4) The Secret Life of Walter Mitty - $760k+
5) Tarzan - $670k+
6) Faster than rabbits* - $540k+
$3,2m+ Trees 3*, $2m+ for Hobbit:DOS, $1,96m+ for Gray Wolf 2*, $840k+ for Frozen.
*Local
1 USD = 32,66 RUB
All increased.-
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More like $150m and $300m(DOM and OS), max.
~$10m in Russia.
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Small buyout release by Huaxia Film Distribution. Didnt notice any ad.
It's a pity, movie is better than Stalingrad.
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Openers Wednesday(ekinobilet):
1) 47 Ronin - $2,5m+
2) Love in the big city 3* - $870k+
3) Friends of friends* - $615k+
4) The Secret Life of Walter Mitty - $600k+
5) Faster than rabbits* - $425k+
6) Tarzan - $350k+
2,55m+ Trees 3*, $1,4m+ for Hobbit:DOS, $1,19m+ for Gray Wolf 2*, $500k+ for Frozen.
*Local
1 USD = 32,66 RUB
Stalingrad got an US release date - http://www.movieinsider.com/m11543/stalingrad/ ? I wonder if it can make $5m there
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By the way, how many admissions in 2013?
~180m, 11% growth.
Can Frozen gross a bit more before disappearing?
A bit? $28m pretty much locked, it managed to survive til the holidays, disney(WDSSPR) did it.
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My "At Least" Forecast #9 for total gross, January 1:
Name; Copies; Total gross $;
47 Ronin; ~900(theaters); 13m+Love in the big city 3*; ~1500; 12m+The Secret Life of Walter Mitty;~1100; 8m+
Friends of friends*;~1000; 6m+Faster than rabbits*; ~1000; 4m+Tarzan; ~1500; 4m+
Land of the Bears; ~300; 0,5m+
*Local.
Openers Monday(ekinobilet):
1) Trees 3* - $1,7m+
2) Gray Wolf 2* - $570k+
$1m+ for Hobbit:DOS, $430k+ for Frozen.
Openers Tuesday(ekinobilet):
1) Trees 3* - $650k+
2) Gray Wolf 2* - $300k+
$350k+ for Hobbit:DOS, $250k+ for Frozen.
*Local
1 USD = 32,63 RUB(Mon), 32,73(Tue).
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So, Juni, Cosmonaut..what is the assessment of 2013? Its growth over 2012? It's time to know
13%+
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Carnival Night / Karnavalnaya noch (1956)
Great NY musical comedy with eng subs, but only in 480p, though there is a remastered 1080p version with DTS-HD MA on russian Blu-ray, but with no subs.
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Pacific Rim(DOM-OS, 1 to 4), IM 3, Gravity.
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2014 Year Forecast
Top 10 Movies
1) The Hobbit: There and Back Again - $50m
2) Transformers: Age Of Extinction - $46m
3) How to Train Your Dragon 2 - $42m
4) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $38m
5) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 - $27m
6) Rio 2 - $26m
7) X-Men: Days of Future Past - $25m
8) Godzilla - $22m
9) Noah - $21m
10) Maleficent - $20m
*1 USD = 33 RUB
**Foreign releases only
Happy New Year!
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So TH2 will be lower than TH1
Holidays will decide, should be over even in $, since exchange rate is not that bad.
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Openers Saturday(ekinobilet):
1) Trees 3* - $3,6m+
2) Gray Wolf 2* - $1,1m+
$2,25m+ for Hobbit:DOS, $850k+ for Frozen, $170k+ for Walking with Dinosaurs 3D, $4k+ for CF.
Openers Sunday(ekinobilet):
1) Trees 3* - $3,5m+
2) Gray Wolf 2* - $1,2m+
$2,2m+ for Hobbit:DOS, $950k+ for Frozen, $220k+ for Walking with Dinosaurs 3D, $4k+ for CF.
*Local
1 USD = 32,63 RUB
2 more weekends for Hobbit and that's it, most theaters without IMAX already giving it less than 10% of shows next weekend, so IMAX really is a key point in this situation, i doubt it'll increase much this Holiday weekend like the first one did.
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But Dvd/bluray-rips do come out almost 1 month before they're officaly released.
Not month, but 2-3 weeks, yes, crappy scene rips then blu-ray itself, it's the time beetwen production and shops.
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Screeners are out all the time.
Nope.
But still, quality is awful, even 1 BD is not enough for this movie, so it may hrt a bit in China and Japan, but not so much to become a serious problem.
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Openers Friday(ekinobilet):
1) Trees 3* - $2m+
2) Gray Wolf 2* - $500k+
1,15m+ for Hobbit:DOS, $335k+ for Frozen, $65k+ for Walking with Dinosaurs 3D, $2k+ for CF... Only 32,68 RUB for 1 USD.
*Local
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IM3 was more enjoyable for me.
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Openers Wednesday(ekinobilet):
1) Hobbit: DOS - $1,25m+
2) Walking with Dinosaurs 3D - $100k+
3) Trees 3*(preview) - $100k+
$450k+ for Frozen, $7,5k+ for CF. Only 32,63 RUB for 1 USD.
Openers Thursday(ekinobilet):
1) Trees 3* - $1,7m+
2) Gray Wolf 2* - $350k+
$900k+ for Hobbit:DOS, $220k+ for Frozen, $42k+ for Walking with Dinosaurs 3D, $1,5k for CF...
Only 32,65 RUB for 1 USD.*Local
$10m+ OW for "Trees 3"? We'll see.
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Well, "Trees" gonna have much better weekdays than "Gray Wolf", that's for sure.
Hobbit is very lucky with IMAX in this time period, there are no big-medium screens for it since Jan.1-2, without IMAX total earnings would be like 10% less, at least..
Kinometro forecast for this weekend: http://www.kinometro.ru/forecast/show/name/seryi_volk_protiv_elok
They are doubting their own prediction?
8,5m OW for "Trees" and 4,2m OW for "Gray Wolf".
5,8m for Hobbit would be a decent hold.
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But 'Love in the big city 3' can do better than 12 mil imo
That would mean less gross for Trees(/other comedies)...
btw Do u plan to see some of those NY movies Cosmo???
Russia Box Office
in International Box Office
Posted
Openers Friday(ekinobilet):
1) 47 Ronin - $2,55m+
2) Love in the big city 3* - $1,05m+
3) Friends of friends* - $755k+
4) The Secret Life of Walter Mitty - $720k+
5) Tarzan - $550k+
6) Faster than rabbits* - $465k+
$2,65m+ for Trees 3*, $1,7m+ for Hobbit:DOS, $1,74m+ for Gray Wolf 2*, $900k+ for Frozen.
*Local
1 USD = 32,66 RUB