BadAtGender

The history of original movie openings. I'll update it once SLoP has an actual. Star Wars 8/7/1977 $7,195,573.00 - - 350 Star Wars 7/23/1978 $10,166,336.00 $2,970,763.00 41.29% 154 Every Which Way But Loose 12/24/1978 $10,272,294.00 $105,958.00 1.04% 910 The Cannonball Run 6/21/1981 $11,765,654.00 $1,493,360.00 14.54% 721 ET: The Extraterrestrial 6/12/1983 $11,835,389.00 $69,735.00 0.59% 364 (Gremlins) 6/10/1984 $12,511,634.00 $676,245.00 5.71% 0 Ghostbusters 6/10/1984 $13,578,151.00 $1,066,517.00 8.52% 182 Beverly Hills Cop 12/9/1984 $15,214,805.00 $1,636,654.00 12.05% 1806 Harlem Nights 11/19/1989 $16,096,808.00 $882,003.00 5.80% 364 Home Alone 11/18/1990 $17,081,997.00 $985,189.00 6.12% 1316 The Lion King 6/26/1994 $40,888,194.00 $23,806,197.00 139.36% 686 Twister 5/12/1996 $41,059,405.00 $171,211.00 0.42% 56 Independence Day 7/7/1996 $50,228,264.00 $9,168,859.00 22.33% 1785 Pearl Harbor 5/27/2001 $59,078,912.00 $8,850,648.00 17.62% 161 Monsters, Inc. 11/4/2001 $62,577,067.00 $3,498,155.00 5.92% 567 Bruce Almighty 5/25/2003 $67,953,330.00 $5,376,263.00 8.59% 371 The Day After Tomorrow 5/30/2004 $68,743,584.00 $790,254.00 1.16% 161 The Incredibles 11/7/2004 $70,467,623.00 $1,724,039.00 2.51% 1869 Avatar 12/20/2009 $77,025,481.00 $6,557,858.00 9.31% 2009 Inside Out 6/21/2015 $90,440,272.00 $13,414,791.00 17.42% The two most amusing points, to me, are first how absolutely dominant The Lion King was for an original movie. Shattered the record both in real dollar and percentage terms. Second is the fact that Gremlins and Ghostbusters broke the record on the same weekend.

1. What will The Purge's total be at the end of the game? 60m 2. What will Sausage party's total be by the end of the game? 15m 3. What will Suicide Squad's 3 day OW be? 60m 4. What will Ben Hur's Second weekend percentage drop be? 45% 5. What will be the difference in gross between Ghostbusters and Central Intelligence by the end of the game? 10m 6. What will Ice Age's multiplier be from it's opening weekend? 2.5x 7. What will Bourne's 10 day total be? 70m 8. How much more than $100M will the Conjuring make (If Conjuring somehow fails to make $100m, everybody wins the minimum score)? 0m 9. What will Bad Mom's Opening Day including Previews be? 2m 10. How much will Pete's Dragon make in Thursday previews? .5m

Everything is for the 3 day, top 12 and Domestic UOS 1. Will Secret Life of Pets make more than $50M OW? YES 2. Will Secret Life of Pets make more than $60M OW? 2000 YES 3. Will Secret Life of Pets make more than $70M OW? NO 4. Will Mike and Dave make more than $10M OW? YES 5. Will Mike and Dave make more than $15M OW? YES 6. Will Mike and Dave open in the top 4? 3000 YES 7. Will the top 3 films make over $100M? YES 8. Will Independence day stay above Central Intelligence? 2000 NO 9. Will any of the 3 new entries from last weekend drop more than 62.5%? YES 10. Will Finding Dory be the number one domestic film of the Summer by the end of the weekend? YES 11. Which of the three big new entries from last weekend will have the smallest weekend percentage drop? The BFG 12. Will The Neon Demon make less than 45k (Being dropped altogether counts as yes)? YES 13. Will Zootopia drop more than 55%? 3000 NO 14. Will Swiss Army Man be in the top 10 this weekend? NO 15. Will Warcraft have a bigger percentage drop than Alice 2? YES 16. Will The Purge have a single day that is bigger than the Shallows' entire weekend? YES 17. Will tarzan finish within $8M of Dory? 3000 YES 18. Will Captain Fantastic have a higher PTA than Captain America? YES 19. Will TMNT finish about Jungle Book? 2000 NO 20. Are the pets going to bring us the pure joy that Pixar and Disney could only dream of? Eh, only if that's your thing. 14/20 - 2000 15/20 - 3000 16/20 - 5000 17/20 - 7000 18/20 - 9000 19/20 - 12000 20/20 - 15000 Part 2 1. What will SLOP OW be? 5000 74.5 2. What will Zootopia percentage drop this weekend be? 5000 44.4, 3. How much will BFG gross on Friday? 5000 3.57m Part 3 3. The Legend of Tarzan 5. The Purge: Election Year 8. Independence Day: Resurgence 12. Free State of Jones 14. Me Before You 17. Captain America: Civil War 3/6 - 2000 4/6 - 5000 5/6 - 9000 6/6 - 13000 Like this

Laika's three previous films had budgets of $60m. I'd expect this to have something in a similar range, because while stop motion is incredibly time intensive to make, it doesn't require as large a staff as other pictures (or the processing power.) If it pulls in $100-$120m WW, as the previous films did, it's probably fine for profitability. Stop motion isn't going to make bank, probably, but it seems pretty safe for Laika to continue as they are.

I look forward to no longer being in the lead.

I started wondering about how long it tends to take musicals to get a screen adaptation. Not a complete list, but here's what I've found. Listed in order from longest to shortest time until the film adaptation. Les Miserables - Musical in '80 (or '85, for the English language version). Film in '12. 32 or 27 years. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - Musical in '79. Film in '07. 28 years. Into the Woods - Musical in '86. Film in '14. 28 years. Chicago - Musical in '75. Movie in '02. 27 years. Dreamgirls - Musical in '81. Film in '06. 25 years. Evita - Musical in '78. Film in '96. 18 years. Phantom of the Opera - Musical in '86. Movie '04. 18 years. RENT - Musical in '96 (workshopped in '93), Movie in '05. 9 years. Mamma Mia! - Musical in '99. Movie in '08. 9 years. Jersey Boys - Musical in '05. Film in '14. 9 years. Hairspray - Musical in '02. Film in 2007. 5 years. Grease - Musical in '71. Movie in '78. 7 years. Rock of Ages - Musical in '05. Film in '12. 7 years. Annie - Musical in '77. Film in '82. 5 years. The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas - Musical in '78. Film in '82. 4 years. The Producers - Musical in '01. Film in '05. 4 years. Jesus Christ Superstar - Musical in '71. Film in '73. 2 years. Wicked first showed in '03 and with a 16 year delay until the film, it's above average, but only slightly.

1. IM3 2. Thor 2 3. Ant-Man? 4 GotG? 5. Winter Soldier 6. Age of Ultron 3 and 4 could flip depending on how I'm feeling that day.

Remember when some dude said that X-Men Apocalypse had a problem, and its name was Alice Through the Looking Glass? Like, Apoc didn't light the world on fire, but jeez.

Finding Dory: Goldfinger (ADJ) - $568.85M - 5000 / 7000 Independence Day: Resurgence Rocky 4 - $127.87M - 12000 /15000 1. Will Suicide Squad make more opening weekend than IDR does Total? 10000/5000 NO

Everything is for the 3 day, top 12 and Domestic UOS 1. Will Dory Threepeat this weekend? 2000 YES 2. Will Independence Day hold on to 2nd place? 3000 NO 3. Will BFG make more than $21.5M? NO 4. Will BFG make more than $27.5M? NO 5. Will BFG make more than $35M? NO 6. Will Legend of Tarzan open above Purge? NO 7. Will at least two out of the three main new entries make more than $20M? YES 8. Will The Purge have a higher PTA than Independence Day? 2000 YES 9. Will Free State of Jones finish above The Conjuring? YES 10. Will Alice have a larger Percentage drop than ME Before You? YES 11. Will Finding DOry Overtake Jungle Book's Domestic total by the end of the weekend? YES 12. Will Swiss Army Man enter the top 18 this weekend? YES 13. Will Xmen finish above TMNT2? 3000 YES 14. Will NYSM2 have the best percentage drop in the top 12? NO 15. Will Warcraft fall below Civil War this weekend? YES 16. Will Central Intelligence have a Saturday increase above 25%? NO 17. Will at least 8 of the top 12 increase on Sunday? 3000 NO 18. Will any film increase 100% on Friday? NO 19. How many different films will win a day this weekend? 2000 ONE 20. IF there was a Purge in the Pixar multiverse, who or what would be the first on your hitlist? I was going to say Mater, but then I realized he's actually not that bad in abstract, just in comparison to how well Pixar usually does characters. I mean, he makes Larry the Cable Guy palatable, which is pretty impressive when you get down to it. 14/20 - 2000 15/20 - 3000 16/20 - 5000 17/20 - 7000 18/20 - 9000 19/20 - 12000 20/20 - 15000 Part 2 1. What will Independence Day's percentage drop be this weekend? 5000 56.7% 2. How many films increase on Sunday this weekend (out of every film in release)? 5000 FOURTEEN 3. How much will BFG make on Sunday? 5000 6.78m Part 3 2. The Purge: Election Year 4. Independence Day: Resurgence 8. The Conjuring 2 11. X-Men Apocalypse 14. Captain America: Civil War 16. Warcraft 3/6 - 2000 4/6 - 5000 5/6 - 9000 6/6 - 13000

Is Neon Demon as relentless about turning an interesting idea into a completely unenjoyable slog as Refn's previous films?

I've only seen a few films this year. Great films: Zootopia - just fantastic Good films: Finding Dory - honestly better than Nemo X-Men: Apocalypse - mostly appeals to the X-fan in me Deadpool - in a year or two it might feel tired, but it works really well in the moment Kung Fu Panda 3 - overshadowed by other animation, but it's gorgeous and fun in its own right ??? films: Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - though from what I've heard, I really need to see the Ultimate cut Meh films: Captain America: Civil War - a bad film that gets by on some good character moments and one fun action scene Bad films: Hardcore Henry - dont. just dont Stuff that I'd like to see but haven't: The Jungle Book, The Nice Guys, Central Intelligence, Hail Caesar!, Keanu, Stuff that I'll watch if I don't have to pay for it: The 5th Wave, Ride Along 2, TMNT 2, Warcraft, Gods of Egypt, Allegiant, London Has Fallen, Independence Day 2, The Huntsman, Alice 2, Angry Birds, The Finest Hours, Race, Eddie the Eagle... actually, there's a lot of these that I'd watch if it sorta happened, but aren't really seeking out

I don't understand what you mean. We're talking about them right now. It's quite easy. And Legs, while they may not be a official technical term, are pretty easy to define mathematically. Total Gross / OW = Legs.

If FD gets above $510,172,811 it'll have the best legs of any film to open over $100m with a Friday opening. TFA's the current record holder. Before that it was TS3. It looks like Inside Out has the best legs for a film with a Friday opening and an OW above $90m. FD will need $532,327,192 to do better. If it gets to $551,585,596, it'll have the best legs of any film over $100m OW period, beating Shrek 2, which had a Wednesday opening.

I'm reasonably certain it stands for 'Sup TeXas, because the founders are big fans of the Alamo Drafthouse.

Part 1 ~ answer yes/no unless otherwise stated (UOS) and are worth 1000 points each UOS. They also only refer to the top 12 UOS. 1) Will IDR open to more than $40M? YES 2) Will IDR open to more than $50M? 2000 YES 3) Will IDR open to more than $60M? NO 4) Will Dory make more than $57.5M? YES 5) Will Dory make more than $65M? YES 6) Will Dory make more than $72.5M? YES 7) Will IDR finish above Dory? 3000 NO 8) Will Free State of Jones Finish above The Shallows? NO 9) Will Neon Demon open in the top 7? 2000 NO 10) Will Central Intelligence drop more than 50%? NO 11) Will Warcraft stay above XMen? NO 12) Will Turtles stay above Alice? YES 13) Will Me Before You have a PTA above $1150? 3000 NO 14) Will Swiss Army Man have a PTA above $3,500? YES 15) Will Angry Birds stay above Zootopia? 2000 NO 16) Will NYSM2 stay in the top 8? YES 17) Will The Conjuring finish above Neon Demon? YES 18) Will Jungle Book Remain in the top 15? YES 19) Will 3 new entries be in the top 4? 3000 NO 20) Is Will Smith going to save the world this weekend? Man, if that was a third act twist, we'd be looking at JW numbers. Bonuses 15/20 - 2000 16/20 - 4000 17/20 - 6000 18/20 - 9000 19/20 - 12000 20/20 - 15000 Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS 1. What will Free State of Jones' OW be? $6.54m 2. What will be the difference between IDR and FD's weekend totals? 29.8m 3. What will Warcraft's percentage drop be? 72.3 Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given. (2000 per film) 1. Finding Dory 4. The Shallows 7. Now You See Me 2 10. Warcraft 13. Me Before You 15. The Jungle Book Bonuses: 3/6 ~ 2000 points 4/6 ~ 5000 points 5/6 ~ 9000 points 6/6 ~ 15000 points

Huh.

Their best extant film is Aladdin, which might arguably be the best of the Renaissance, but it does have weaknesses that somewhat typify that era of Disney animation. Robin Williams' Genie is brilliant, but has a reliance upon pop culture that dates some of the jokes. The Little Mermaid is also great, but it's more for what it did (spur on the Renaissance and a massive increased interest in animated musicals) rather than the film itself, which has some thin characters and (today, at least) questionable gender messages. The Princess and the Frog is conceptually great. Tiana is an excellent character and a perfect update to bring the Princess tropes to contemporary sensibilities. But it's got really uneven delivery and in a lot of ways it feels stuck in the 90s. Not because of the animation, but because of the storytelling. Also, they should have had Anika Noni Rose sing more. Woman's got pipes, let her use them. The Great Mouse Detective might be the best film in that pre-Renaissance era, but it's not up to the same level. Hercules is a mess. I really enjoy it, but it's a film that has very little clue about what it wants to be. Treasure Planet I'd honestly forgotten they directed until I was looking at a list. By critical consensus, Zootopia is the better received film than any out of the Renaissance. Based on their history, I don't see Clements and Musker delivering something on that level as a film. Their storytelling and characterization sensibilities don't quite get there. Now, if we're talking about music, then, sure, Moana should be well on top. The music is the weakest part of Zootopia, though.

26,172,333

Part 1 ~ answer yes/no unless otherwise stated (UOS) and are worth 1000 points each UOS. They also only refer to the top 12 UOS. 1) Will Finding Dory open to more than $90M? YES 2) Will Finding Dory open to more than $105M? 2000 YES 3) Will Finding Dory open to more than $120M? YES 4) Will Finding Dory break the animated OW record? YES 5) Will Central Intelligence open to more than $30M? YES 6) Will Central Intelligence open to more than $40M? NO 7) Will Central Intelligence open to more than $50M? NO 8) How many of Dory's day's will gross more than Central Intelligence's total OW (choose from 0-3)? 3000 2 9) Will Dory Outgross the rest of the top 7 combined over the weekend? YES 10) Will Warcraft finish above NYSM2? NO 11) Will Conjuring have a better percentage drop than XMen? 2000 NO 12) Will Clown have a PTA above $2,200? NO 13) What day will Civil War pass $400m? YES 14) Will Jungle Book have a PTA above $1,400? YES 15) Will Angry Birds stay above Alice 2? NO 16) Will Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles have the lowest Weekend drop out of last weekend's top 5 films? 3000 NO 17) Will Neighbours 2 stay above Love and Friendship? NO 18) Will Te3n increase? Not Listed 19) Will Popstar drop more than 72.5%? 3000 YES 20) Will Warcraft WW overtake Civil War Domestic by the end of the weekend? Currently no, but intl. might not have been updated yet 21) Will Nice Guys increase more than 85% on Friday? NO 22) Will any film in the top 10 drop less than 22% on Sunday? 2000 YES 23) Will Neighbours 2 pass $55m domestic by the end of the weekend? NO 24) We me before You gross double Civil War this weekend? NO 25) Are people going to Blindly like Finding Dory the same way they inexplicably to Nemo? I guess Bonuses 18/25 - 2000 19/25 - 4000 20/25 - 6000 21/25 - 9000 22/25 - 12000 23/25 - 15000 24/25 - 20000 25/25 - 25000 Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS 1. What will be the difference in gross between Finding Dory's OW and Shrek 2's OW? $27,022,395 2. What will Conjuring's percentage drop be? 63.2% 3. What will Warcraft's WW total be by the end of the WW? Currently $378,412,014, but unsure if intl is fully updated. Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given. (2000 per film) 3. The Conjuring 2 5. Warcraft 7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows 10. Captain America: Civil War 13. Zootopia 15. Love & Friendship Bonuses: 3/6 ~ 2000 points 4/6 ~ 5000 points 5/6 ~ 9000 points 6/6 ~ 15000 points

Comparing to earlier years isn't as useful. I believe the nature of how the films are selected has changed, and it's highly unlikely we'll see a year with only three nominees again. So we can look at earlier years (2001-2010) for rough trends, but it's less applicable to how the Academy votes. 2011 does remain a strange year. I'd put it as the first in the new era (2010 was the last three nominee year), but it's true that Rango wasn't the highest grossing. I think there might have been some other factors at play. Rango had a non-animation director at the helm and Johnny Depp played a bit part of the film, which appeals to the actor branch (always the largest voting block). Cars 2 had the "cash grab" feel to it, and was a huge flip in quality compared to TS3 (You'd actually see that Pixar backlash come back again. While Brave won, it was original, and had a female director; MU didn't even score a nom, despite the technical achievement it had in comparison to DM2.) Based on the overall trends, FD seems pretty damn likely to be the highest grossing animated film of the year. (I suppose Pets could outgross it, but even if it does, I doubt Illumination is going to score another nom unless they up their budgets considerably. Moana would need to be bigger than Frozen which is unlikely... though who knows what sort of effect LMM has on it. Hamilton's going to remain sold out until Frozen hits the Broadway stage.) The question is really whether FD scores a nom. I think it will. The film is very good, technically, and even if it's derivative of the original in some ways, it does some very interesting new things. (I've seen very few films, period, that have as much care in looking at serious mental impairment.) It's not as good as Zootopia, IMO, either from a technical or storytelling standpoint, but I'm not sure that matters. It's hewing much closer to TS3 than MU. What this means is we're probably looking at one of the most competitive years ever in terms of nominations. if Zoo and FD have two locked up, we're seeing a hard battle for the last three. I still don't see how Kubo misses. Stop motion is too much of an inherent advantage. Moana is going to depend entirely on quality. I think it'll be good and entertaining, but it needs to be great, and not just technically, to get there, because computer animation is held to a higher standard. I won't be surprised if we see a situation where it gets a mid-to-upper 80s RT score (as is typically for WDAS pre-Zootopia) and misses out on a BAF nom, but does score (and win) a Best Song nom. Erryone wants to give LMM his PEGOTarthur. I have a tough time seeing it ending up as good as Zootopia (Musker & Clements are well regarded vets, but even their absolute best film isn't as good as Zoo... and since Aladdin they've been... uneven) so Disney might be seeing its nomination votes split. The better film gets the nom, unless Moana is gobsmackingly good. So, probably one or two free slots. Finding Dory (likely win) Zootopia Kubo of the Two Strings The Red Turtle Moana (if, say, it's around the 95% RT mark) or something else.

1) Will Finding Dory open to more than $90M? YES 2) Will Finding Dory open to more than $105M? 2000 YES 3) Will Finding Dory open to more than $120M? YES 4) Will Finding Dory break the animated OW record? YES 5) Will Central Intelligence open to more than $30M? YES 6) Will Central Intelligence open to more than $40M? YES 7) Will Central Intelligence open to more than $50M? NO 8) How many of Dory's day's will gross more than Central Intelligence's total OW (choose from 0-3)? 3000 2 9) Will Dory Outgross the rest of the top 7 combined over the weekend? YES 10) Will Warcraft finish above NYSM2? NO 11) Will Conjuring have a better percentage drop than XMen? 2000 NO 12) Will Clown have a PTA above $2,200? YES 13) What day will Civil War pass $400m? YES 14) Will Jungle Book have a PTA above $1,400? YES 15) Will Angry Birds stay above Alice 2? YES 16) Will Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles have the lowest Weekend drop out of last weekend's top 5 films? 3000 NO 17) Will Neighbours 2 stay above Love and Friendship? NO 18) Will Te3n increase? NO 19) Will Popstar drop more than 72.5%? 3000 YES 20) Will Warcraft WW overtake Civil War Domestic by the end of the weekend? YES 21) Will Nice Guys increase more than 85% on Friday? NO 22) Will any film in the top 10 drop less than 22% on Sunday? 2000 YES 23) Will Neighbours 2 pass $55m domestic by the end of the weekend? YES 24) We me before You gross double Civil War this weekend? YES 25) Are people going to Blindly like Finding Dory the same way they inexplicably to Nemo? Bitter, much? If it makes you feel better, I'm not as hot on Nemo as other people. Bonuses 18/25 - 2000 19/25 - 4000 20/25 - 6000 21/25 - 9000 22/25 - 12000 23/25 - 15000 24/25 - 20000 25/25 - 25000 Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS 1. What will be the difference in gross between Finding Dory's OW and Shrek 2's OW? 18.63m 2. What will Conjuring's percentage drop be? 54.3% 3. What will Warcraft's WW total be by the end of the WW? 408.7m Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given. (2000 per film) 3. The Conjuring 2 5. Warcraft 7. Me Before You 10. Alice: Through the Looking Glass 13. Love and Friendship 15. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising Bonuses: 3/6 ~ 2000 points 4/6 ~ 5000 points 5/6 ~ 9000 points 6/6 ~ 15000 points

But, hey, you don't know me! I'll just go for making sure all of them are wrong! Easy, right? Oh, that's definitely going to happen! So I'll just mark it as NO! Easy! One down. Seven (or six. or five) to go! Umm... That's... probably going to happen? So... No? That seems likely, given the trend of these sorts of films in China. No! Uhh... Inflation says Yes! But that's still a lot of money in the UK so No! Which means I'm supposed to say Yes, right? Ye--es? Uh... I... Gah! Okay, fine. Fine. You read me correctly. I ABSTAIN! Are you happy, now? God, dammit.