BadAtGender
-
Posts
10,487 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Everything posted by BadAtGender
-
Interesting point of comparison: When Titanic set the record by 140m (over Star Wars), that represented 23% of its total gross. The next three had a 103m gap. Avatar's 160m increase over Titanic is about 21% of its total. The next three had a 140m gap. If TFA gets to 960m, the margin over Avatar will be a similar 21%. All three are in pretty close proximity, there. Hmm... Alternative consideration: The 140m gap Titanic had subtracted from the 2nd place film drops you down to 320m, of which four other films had crossed (Star Wars, ET, JP, Forrest Gump, which was amazingly the third biggest film of all time at one point. The Lion King is about 8m behind that threshold.) Subtract Avatar's 160m bump from Titanic, and you've got 440m, which also covered four films (Titanic, TDK, Star Wars, Shrek 2. ET, post-re-release was 5m behind.) TFA's hypothetical 200m bump from Avatar subtracted the same way gives you 560m. Which, yeah, covers four films (Avatar, Titanic, JW, TA1.) And TDK is sitting 25m short. Okay, that's tremendously non-conclusive. -
He didn't win Best Actor for Rocky. He was only nominated. Peter Finch won for Network. I like Rocky and all, but honestly, Network was robbed of both BP and BD that year. And Best Supporting Actor.
-
Pick the actuals! 1) REV 16, TFA 11 2) REV 14, TFA 12 3) REV 13, TFA 13 4) REV 18, TFA 10
-
Last Friday was NYD, and it was inflated. The Saturday to Saturday drop is going to be around 33%, and the Sunday to Sunday may be even better.
-
That's Lone Survivor numbers on the low end for Revenant. So 40m OW wouldn't be a surprise. If it's 16 it's pushing 45. As for TFA, Avatar's SatSun bump and drop was +60%/-26%. Tron: Legacy, the LOTR films, and the Hobbit films all had stronger Saturday bumps, in the 70-80% range, with bigger drops in the 35-40% range. Regardless it looks to be pretty good to get to 40m at a minimum, and possibly as high as 45. Looks like a tight race for #1 for the weekend.
-
Same thing happened with Blair Witch Project.
-
One of those "body of work to honor" sort of things?
-
Wow. BO.com is fucking soft on Zootopia at the moment.
-
Hmm... Your Baumer impression needs a lot of work.
-
You can reasonably expect that the film will be well crafted and as close to technically perfect as possible. That's about it this far out. You can't make any reasonable arguments about the box office potential. This is true for pretty much any movie coming out after this summer. The people saying Rogue One is going to do $500m are talking out of their asses. You guys who are saying Avatar 2 is going to break a billion are doing the same.
-
There's an interesting intersection between how much time is necessary to make a good film, and how much time is good for the audience engagement. And how much "other stuff" is good for keeping interest rather than overloading and reducing interest in the film. I definitely notice it more with animation, because we can have situations like what happened with HTTYD2 last year. Most pre-release expectations were that it was going to be huge, the biggest film of the summer. Prime release date, solid marketing. And then it just does okay. Not bad, but not the gangbusters we expected. Why did this happen? Was it because of the 4 year gap from the first film? (Animation tentpoles tend to need a bit more time to develop. Hell, Frozen 2 is probably going to hit 5 or 6 years after the first.) Or was it because of the tie-in cartoons, which may have undermined interest in the film. But if it's the latter case, why aren't, say, superhero movies affected the same way. Batman and Avengers cartoons are on all the time, to say nothing of the comics. So it's really hard. Heck, there are people who have expensive marketing degrees who get paid lots of money to figure this out because, literally, hundreds of millions of dollars are on the line for any given film. And it seems more often than not, THEY don't know what's going on. Jurassic World's success this year was a surprise, especially on the scale it did. Frozen's success literally came out of nowhere, and was in contrast to the best efforts of the early marketing. Or Pacific Rim, which, yes, did have a lot of early internet support, and some extremely fond love letters from people in related industries (there's one from--Shoji Kawamori? Someone who works in anime--that was quite touching), but when it came down to it, the audience wasn't there. We can often look back on things after the fact and go "Oh, of COURSE! That's why x thing did what it did!" and the signs will be obvious. But hindsight is 20/20. At the moment, it's not at all clear. So despite being able to snap our fingers and convince ourselves it was obvious all along, we're deluding ourselves. Wow. That meandered off course. Sorry.
-
1. Will Revenant increase into 2nd position? YES 2. Will any new release make more than $10M? 2000 YES 3. Will Joy remain in the top 8? NO 4. Will Sisters remain above Road Chip? 3000 YES 5. Which of the 2 main new entries will have the higher PTA? THE MASKED SAINT 6. Will hateful 8's total gross pass Krampus' total gross by the end of the weekend? YES 7. Will Good Dinosaur overtake Mockingjay this weekend? NO 8. Will at least 3 films have a Friday increase of 200% or more? 2000 YES 9. Will Creed's Weekend gross stay above $2M? YES 10. Will Daddy's home's total gross overtake Good Dinosaur's total gross by end of Saturday? 3000 NO 11. Will Anesthesia have a PTA above $5000? YES 12. Will Brooklyn, Carol or Spotlight have the best percentage change this weekend? 2000 SPOTLIGHT 13. Will any film in the top 8 end this weekend in a higher position than it was last weekend? NO 14. What film will have the biggest drop in the top 15? 3000 POINT BREAK 15. Did I finally make it through the weekly questions without making a Star Wars based one? ALMOST 10/15 - 2000 11/15 - 3000 12/15 - 5000 13/15 - 7000 14/15 - 9000 15/15 - 12000 Part 2. 1. What will The Forest and Masked Saint's combine OW totals be? 5000 12.72m 2. What will be the difference in gross between Sisters and Alvin this weekend? 5000 823k 3. What will be the difference in gross between Revenant's weekend this weekend and Hateful 8's weekend last weekend ($15.7M)? 12.27m Part 3. 3. DADDY'S HOME 5. SISTERS 7. ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: THE ROAD CHIP 10. CONCUSSION 12. THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY PART 2 15. THE MASKED SAINT
-
Oh, I'm sure if Fox said so, Cameron would have TOTALLY been on board with a 2 year production cycle for the sequel. They should have pegged Christmas 2011 after opening weekend. I mean, films turn out great when that happens, right? Totally the best things we've ever seen.
-
I am HERE for the Trinity.
-
Like so many things, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, because people cover a range. Yes, there are sorts like Kal and Jimbo who are wholly invested in Avatar and that never changes, even in the absence of real news. And there are people who shrugged in '09, are shrugging now, and will shrug when the sequel comes out. A lot of the metrics of social media often bely how people really approach things that they consume, media-wise. I'm just browsing my own selection of likes on Facebook, and there's a smattering of musical acts, movies, TV shows, video games, novels, and comics. I do like all of these things, abstractly, but honestly the vast majority of them I don't give any thought about most days. This is even true for things that are among my all time favorites. I -love- the Veronica Mars TV show. But I don't think about it much, because there's no reason. The like sits there, though, a signifier that, yes, I do like this thing, in whatever sense that means. It's probably the same with Avatar. Those 49 million fans probably exist, but it's not 49 million people who are acting like Kal and Jimbo. It's just people who went "Oh, I like this." *click* and then went on with their day. From the point of view of these brands that's fine. They don't need to have people actively clamoring all the time, they really just need that abstract interest enough to click a like. Because when we get closer to release, those 49 million people are people who can be contacted directly about the film. (And, yeah. Fox probably would be interested in paying to make sure that every person who liked the page sees anything they post as it gets close to release.)
-
Relax. It's midweek and there isn't any widespread vacation to make things interesting. He provides the numbers as a privilege to us, really. People need to stop assuming they're something we're entitled to.
-
It's true that as time goes on, the feedback you see online is going to be more reflective of society as a whole. However, that's an increase trend over time, and so the state of social media as it existed at the time of Avatar's release isn't anywhere close to what it's like right now. Also despite not forgetting anything, the internet does have a short memory. I check Tumblr daily and I recently saw a post where someone just put together a collage of all the memes that had gone big over the course of 2015. And I swear to god, half of them I'd completely forgotten about. Popular culture is very much a thing about what's in the now. Some brands do a good job about keeping their conversation in play, even during fallow periods. But that's not strictly necessary. More often, people care when there's something in relative proximity, and not at other times. The Hunger Games just had a movie a couple months ago, and that was the culmination of four movies in the past four years. Of course people still care about it. (It also had a pretty hardcore fanbase even prior to release, because there were novels that drummed things up.) If you come back in a couple years, when we're possibly in a long fallow period before the first prequel is released, people might be more like "Oh, yeah? That was fun." Hell, even Harry Potter has cooled off a bit since the last movie. (Not as much, mind, because Pottermore, but some.) You're making the mistake (as these article writers are) of taking the fact that people aren't invested in Avatar right now to mean that they won't ever be invested. And audience behavior doesn't really support that. As they become aware in the few months prior to release, they're likely to become interested in it again. This isn't to say that Cameron and Fox can rest easy. They do have a bit of an uphill battle compared to other brands as they get closer to release. If they slack off, they could get a John Carter situation, where an audience may be potentially interested and passingly knowledgable of the property, but aren't given a compelling reason to care at that moment.
-
Are we talking Zero Dark Thirty big, Lone Survivor big, or American Sniper big?
-
My brother and I talk about movies a fair bit. I keep up on the news and all, but he doesn't. It's just not in his particular interest to know the minutia of all the production news. So I'm constantly reminding him not only when movies are coming out, but that they ARE coming out. "Oh, there's a third Captain America movie? When is that?" "This summer." "Cool. Cool." And the he'll probably forget it until I tell him again in a couple months. Or my nephew. He's 12. If you remember what it was like at that age, the films you see then are the BEST in the world. Right now, his current favorites are TFA, JW, and GOTG. ("Chris Pratt is my favorite actor," he told me. And I'm thinking, "what have you seen besides those two movies," because I KNOW my sister won't let him watch Zero Dark Thirty.) So we're talking about upcoming movies and I pull out my phone and get the list of MCU movies. Civil War he knows about... and that was it. Hadn't had a clue about Doctor Strange. When I mentioned GOTG2 next year, his eyes just lit up. But he'll probably forget about it until next year sometime. I find people like that are good barometers for the general public. If you know someone who likes movies but doesn't follow the news, find out what they know about. Chances are, they probably aren't really looking forward to anything in more than an abstract way until a few months out at best. They see the trailers, but once they notice that it's not coming until next Summer or Christmas or something, they put the information on the back burner. It doesn't have anything to do with whether they're excited or not about the properties. It's just being the sort of hyper-focused fan who has to know all information months and months ahead of time really isn't appealing to most people.
-
Aliens is a remake of Zulu.
-
Whether holding both records goes back to Jaws or Star Wars is very slightly debatable. Star Wars set the weekend record in (I think) its 11th weekend, probably because it had a slower rollout. And then it set the weekend record again (taking it from Jaws 2) with the opening of the '78 re-release/expansion. So while you can argue it didn't set the opening weekend record, in one way, it did in another. And it did set the weekend record twice, which no other film has done. Star Wars and Superman are the only two films that have set weekend records not on their opening weekend.
