estebanJ

I think that is inflated - people think they are expected to like it. Heck Solo got an A- and nobody actually likes it.

I think legs are going to be on the short and skinny side for I2. Figure demand is front loaded because many plan to see JP this weekend so want to make sure they see I2 first, and also IMO the film is mediocre so WOM will not be strong. Still, in nominal dollars it will gross more in its first week than the first film made in its DOM run, a tribute to the enduring appreciation for that outstanding film

Yes, the legs might be skinnier than the opening would suggest, e.g., a lot of people might be cramming it in this weekend and week so they can see Jurassic Park next week.

Well I'll say it. Dull movie, deserved to flop.

A $90m second week with Jurassic World doing $150m?

Yes, coming just six months after TLJ is IMO crazy, guess that's why Disney doesn't pay me the big bucks to schedule their movies, LOL. I think Solo is a major FLOP threat.

I agree with most of that, but IMO Disney should shift gears a little anyway. WOM may not have been an issue here, but fatigue may well be. Three straight years of $500m + DOM Star Wars films is IMO unsustainable. There will be a big-budget SW flop soon if they don't start spacing these out more, once every two years for example.

Maybe, but apparently a whale of a lot of them are seeing it once.

... on the other hand, CoCo received fawning USA press, possibly because it is a Mexican-themed film released in the context of Trump's attacks on illegal Mexican immigration, and the mainstream USA media is largely anti-Trump. So let's call the politics a wash and conclude that maybe CoCo just wasn't that appealing a film to USA audiences on the merits. I personally don't care about the politics either way but found the movie to be pretty good but nothing special, entertaining, but with a basic connect the dots story. Glad i saw it, but one time was enough. IMO not worthy of the ecstatic gushing it received in some quarters.

I'd put more emphasis on the "huge hit nonetheless" part than the "Ouch" part. TLJ is surging past $500m DOM, and as you imply $600m is just about a given, and it is still beating darling Jumanji every day. That's very impressive regardless of what came before. E.g., in 1980, Empire Strikes Back did "only" 2/3 of the DOM box office of Star Wars, but nobody called it a disappointment. When the first film is out-of-this-world, it's unrealistic to expect the sequel to be in the same league. I mean, if Avatar 2 does 2 Billion WW, will we say "ouch" because it's $700m less than what Avatar did? I hope not.

It wasn't long, but it wasn't very good either. Just kind of moves from one messy set piece to another. Not bad, but not as inventive as the 95 original. Can't explain why it's taken off the way it has.

Ultron on line one ...

To me, it's saying TLJ is surging past $500m DOM in the next couple of days, which is really impressive on its own terms. Looks like it will be close as to whether it will pass BATB for #1 DOM film of 2017 (by which i mean dollars earned in 2017).

For a lot of 30-ish sorts, Jumanji is a fond-childhood-memory movie that gives them an incentive to watch this new version. I'm 50-ish, and liked the original Jumanji as well, so am going to give this film a look-see in the next few days.

TLJ wasn't as good as its 93% tomato rating implies, but it was a good movie, a lot of fun. If Star Wars releases in the near future drop off in box office, it will be from fatigue, and because you can only say goodbye to Carrier Fisher once, not because this film left a bad taste that carries over to the next release. There just wasn't anything bad-tasting about it.

Adjusted numbers have their vagaries, but they are mostly technical, related to how precisely to calculate inflation rates. But big picture? Extrapolating over time is exactly what they are most useful for. To side with nominal dollars over adjusted dollars, you have to believe that during their original runs ... Attack of the Clones was a bigger film than Star Wars. The Hangover was bigger than Jaws. The Secret Life of Pets was bigger than ET. Having been around for the original runs of all six of these films, i can assure you that none of the former films were even 1/2 as "big" financially as the latter films. Not even in the same galaxy or ocean. Adjusted dollars captures that reality. In contrast, there are no counter-examples where relying on adjusted dollars results in equally absurd outcomes. So whatever the flaws of adjusted dollars, in toto they come far closer to capturing the reality of the "bigness" of films from different times.

CoCo passed the $500m WW mark yesterday. I'm not sure where the other 1/2 billion will come from.

It cracks me up when "math" is invoked around here, as if there's some kind of abstract necessity that because a film earned X dollars this past week it must earn Y dollars this week. Fact is, no matter how many times various patterns have held in the past, there's no logical or mathematical necessity that even one person sees a given this week even if it grossed $220m last week.

Looks like TLJ will not join the list of films having a $30m DOM day after passing $250m DOM. Rogue 1 did it last year. At this point, TLJ probably doesn't reach $600m DOM.

Good points here, but ... First, I think the belief that any movie with the "Star Wars" brand attached to it is automatically bullet-proof in terms of amazing box office is a fan belief, not an industry belief. The other studios weren't shy about releasing other commercial films against TLJ. Second, I do think fatigue is a factor. IMO, the $220m opening represents those for whom fatigue hasn't set in, and obviously that's still a big hunk of people. But the shorter legs reflects it, not just the WOM. WOM + fatigue = the relatively shorter legs. If i were Disney, I'd ratchet back the release dates for Solo and whatever else is coming down the pipe. Definitely a warning shot that they can't expect $500m DOM and up box office from a Star Wars film every year, that pace is just insane. Push stuff back now, before they spend $300m in production budget on a SW film that doesn't even make that DOM. That's coming, at this rate, and soon.

Mojo 4 day estimates: 1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $100,669,000 2. Jumanji (2017) $52,150,000 3. Pitch Perfect 3 $25,601,000

Lots of hemming and hawing in that response, and i sympathize, because IMO the numbers say CoCo is listlessly schlepping its way through the 160s right now, basically running on the fumes of the boost all films naturally get from the Christmas/New Years nexus. To me, Pixar doesn't spend $175 - $200m on production alone to release a film that is going to perform this way in the USA. Beyond, I don't consider Good Dinosaur to be any more a benchmark than Dory, because Dory was guaranteed massive box office off the Nemo glow alone, while GD is an epic flop, and I never said CoCo was an epic DOM flop. Cars 3? That's maybe the one exception to my first statement, as the Cars franchise is more about merchandising so that film was more an advertisement for the merch than anything else. Who knows? Maybe CoCo will just keep schlepping $10m a week for the next two months an end up near say Moana's gross (IMO, the best benchmark), and if so, I'll come back here and eat my hat.

IMO, the only way to not call CoCo a USA disappointment is if we just no longer regard Pixar films as blockbuster releases. I'm not ready to concede on that yet.

Thing is, lots are saying not to compare TLJ to TFA because TFA was a unique once in 30+ years event, and it was. But TLJ had a massive exceptional hook of its own - the last appearance by Carrie Fisher who was beloved, and whose early death saddened many, and not just Star Wars fans. I'm sure that mattered to a LOT of people, it's why my wife, who otherwise couldn't care less about Star Wars, went to the film with me. The next SW movie won't even have that.

CoCo is a USA disappointment. That's been glossed over by some spectacular numbers in China and Mexico, and in the media because of fawning over its Mexican themes, but in the USA it's been a box office disappointment since it opened, yet nobody wants to recognize that.