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Quigley

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  1. Quigley
    This is slightly irrelevant to Frozen's box office, but one front where Frozen is losing compared to Despicable Me 2 is Youtube: Let It Go has ~220M views, whereas Happy has ~230M views
  2. Quigley
    Why is Wednesday a big weekday compared to other weekdays in Japan?
  3. Quigley
    "Ray Subers: I don't know, a lot" HAHAHAHAHA!!!
  4. Quigley
    Assuming exchange rates stay around 102 yen to 1 dollar, $255M
  5. Quigley
    So is this for Wednedsay?
  6. Quigley
    WDAS is good, but does it deserve the WW crown more than Pixar?
  7. Quigley
    Frozen fell only 20% in NA when Nut Job was released. And during Nut Job's 3rd weekend, Frozen moved ahead of that film. Also, I said 3 months. The LEGO Movie was released nearly 3 months after Frozen, so Frozen had already become a national phenomenon by that time. Clearly families wouldn't choose the Hobbit 2 or Ride Along or the Hunger Games 2. They would choose Frozen. That wasn't an issue. And if you've noticed, on their opening weekends all the movies you mentioned earned more than what Frozen earned (on that specific weekend). But eventually Frozen moved ahead of those movies. e.g. Hobbit 2 earned more than Frozen during the weekend Dec. 13-15, but Frozen eventually surpassed Hobbit 2, earning more money on Jan. 3-5. Same with Nut Job, Hunger Games and Ride Along. Clearly Frozen had the most staying power.
  8. Quigley
    Dory's problems: The biggest problem that Finding Dory has is competition. Within a month of its release, three other high-profile animated movies will be released: HtTYD3, Angry Birds and Ice Age 5. In fact, in North America, it will open on the same day as HtTYD3. The latter will end up doing big numbers if HtTYD2 is big too (both in NA and OS). Ice Age 5 aso has the potential to gross over $700M OS which will be enough to slow down Finding Dory. Angry Birds is not an easy guess but it isn't completely original. It is based on well-known material worldwide since it is a game for smartphones. Why Frozen succeeded: On the other hand, Frozen had minimal competition for three months in NA and even more in some OS markets, with the most important point being that DreamWorks released no film during the holiday period (November-December). If Finding Dory was released on the day Frozen was released, it could have grossed even more than Frozen. But being released right in the middle of a sequel-packed summer, its chances to explode like Frozen are slim. 2016 schedule: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=theatrical&yr=2016&p=.htm Suggestion: Given that Fining Dory will be the first animated film to be released in three months (Mumbai Musical will be released on March 18), it could easily move to Memorial Day weekend 2016 (May 27) and still be the first aimated film to be released in two months. If it is also released in OS markets during that time (late May) it will have a 3-week head start compared to the other animated films I mentioned. Therefore it can benefit from high demand in the market, lack of competition and the American holiday to boost its grosses while it can. Frozen didn't need a big opening since it boosted its grosses during the Christmas holidays, the Chinese New Year, or other holiday periods (see Japan). But Finding Dory will not have that opportunity due to competition that will slow it down considerably after a month. Even then, in order to reach Frozen, it needs more than a month.
  9. Quigley
    From worldofkj.com: "Corpse, do you have an all-time list for Japan in US dollars? Google has failed me, and while the gross in Yen (as well as admissions) holds more value to me personally, it would be interesting to see how Frozen stacks up against everything else in the currency that (I'm guessing) Disney values the most." Hahaha!! Totally true.
  10. Quigley
    That is surprisingly strange. None of the Ice Age films did well in Japan, but they didn't even bother releasing the 4th one? But yeah, basically the Japanese don't watch foreign animated films except for Disney/Pixar. The highest-grossing non-Disney/Pixar foreign animated film is Madagascar 3 at $25.6M.
  11. Quigley
    May 5 to May 11: Frozen will make $21.65M.
  12. Quigley
    Whoa.... needs to earn more than $310M to top HP7:P2. That is beyond even the most optimistic speculations for its run. Let's face it: 5th worlwide with nearly $1.25 billion is enough.
  13. Quigley
    BOM reported $11.1M weekend for Frozen. Closest is Incardine. However, % error is 0.3/10.8=2.8% (more than 2%). With so many predictions and the figures being so close to each other, I think a 2% window is fair enough.
  14. Quigley
    According to BOM, Frozen made $25M (Mon-Sun). Should the estimate hold, congrats to... Murgatroyd ...29.74 Ray.................29.16 mfantin..........29.01 Henry I...........27.72 pepsa. ...........27.25 catlover..........26.62 Olive...............26.55 kingslayer. ....26.00 Queen Elsa.....25.80 Incredible.......25.52 Chucky...........24.98 Tong Kosong.24.42 DamienRoc....24.601 Quigquag.......23.40 Rysu...............23.27 rhfqkddl45.....23.00 Chucky!!! [uPDATE: I previously said Incredible was the winerr because I used the OS total grosses, not the Japan gross. Soz]
  15. Quigley
    If ScreenDaily said $753.5M by Wednesday, that's $9.9M (Mon-Wed). If the other report said it crossed the 13.3 billion yen mark ($11.8M) by Thursday, that's $1.9M from Thursday. mfantin65 says it made $3M on Thursday. Clearly, the data is very confusing and I have no idea what to rely on. Let's just hope whoever reported the biggest number was right.
  16. Quigley
    Corpse: It was reported that Frozen exceeded ¥13.3 billion ($130 million) on Friday, its 50th day in release, adding approx. ¥1.2 billion ($11.8 million) to its total over the past five days. [Mon-Fri] The numbers posted by mfantin65 are overestimates, as they add up to $14.9M However, both mfantin65 and Corpse agree on approx. $5.5M for Saturday. If Sunday shows even the slightest increase, the film will earn over $11M for the weekend. Total week (Mon-Sun) at around $22-$23.5M
  17. Quigley
    This is what annoys me so much about ScreenDaily. They rarely specify the day of the week
  18. Quigley
    This is an average-to-worst-case scenario. By Sunday June 1st, it will have surpassed IM3 but that doesn't mean it can't happen earlier.
  19. Quigley
    Prediction: By Sunday, June 1st, it will have surpassed Iron Man 3. Breakdown: $769M overseas by tomorrow May 5 - May11: $20M May 12 - May 18: $11M May 19 - May 25: $9M May 26 - June 1: $7M Total: $816M (plus $400M in North America)
  20. Quigley
    I wish Frozen could surpass Transformers 3 ($771.4M) by Sunday. It needs $27.8 for the week (Mon-to-Sun) but it'll probably finish a million or two below that figure and surpass Transformers on Monday, which honestly still doesn't look bad any way you slice it. I think it is now highly likely (given the lack of competition) that it will reach Iron Man 3 worldwide (it needs $190M from Japan to do that).
  21. Quigley
    Sunday will see a greater increase from last Sunday, compared to Saturday's increase from last Saturday, because Monday is a holiday. So don't worry if Saturday increases only 5%.
  22. Quigley
    That was quite a nosedive, but it was expected. I think Cap 2 might actually miss the $250M mark, but hopefully not.
  23. Quigley
    But why did Frozen fall so much on Friday (compared to Thursday) if Saturday is a holiday?
  24. Quigley
    But Corpse on worlofkkj.com says it made $11.2m from Mon to Thur.
  25. Quigley
    Compared to Captain America 2, that late-night gross is a bit bad. Even if TASM2 rebounds on Friday (which happens often, indicating that late-night grosses can't be used for consistent predicting), it will be front-loaded throughout the weekend. So we can say almost certainly that it will finish below Captain America 2 for the weekend.
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