Eric Prime

Silver lining: it’s possible the whole top 10 will be 200M+ for the first time since 2019. We already got 6, Moana’s a near lock, and we just need some combo of Joker, Venom, Gladiator, Wicked, Mufasa, and Sonic. (Some are likelier than others ofc)

dude whatever I was exaggerating

Would die for him unironically. He deserved a better movie.

Maxus.

I'm honestly pretty pro-Bay too, and like most of his movies, but Dark of the Moon is the only Transformers movie I can ever admit to liking. All the other ones suck eggs, including the first one.

Because people will look at anything they saw as a child and will be nostalgic for it (granted also vulgar auteurism is the hip new thing to do). I guarantee in a few years we're going to see Seltzerberg get some sort of redemption arc and people will be talking about how Disaster Movie's a comedy classic because they saw it when they were 15 years old.

Saw this blurb from Deadline Anthony and it broke my brain. Like what are you even saying?

Well...yeah. You're right. But Mubi doesn't have the same resources or reach or brand name recognition as A24. And Substance is still looking to open higher than Decision to Leave's entire run. It could have easily grossed around the same level as something like Titane, but it's looking to far outpace it. I think this is still a victory, especially if this movie drives people to the Mubi subscription service.

Honestly thinking Beetlejuice might threepeat at #1. Transformers is already looking to be super fan-driven, and Beetlejuice just needs a few minor jumps from its current estimates to reach a million or two.

I mean I was thinking it was going to open in the 30s for the longest time and I would think that would be an impressive opening. These animated movies based on live-action properties do have a ceiling to them, and Across the Spider-Verse only broke past that because the first movie was hailed as the greatest thing ever created by humans. But I can't help but think 25M would be quite underwhelming from expectations and potential. Sorry to say. I mean I never heard of the movie or book until this year, and I don't think they are even selling any toys or Funko Pops for the movie or whatever, so I'm gonna say no.

My lack of confidence is just that it isn't a nostalgic toy commercial. Like I know presales are reportedly good, and the reviews are great, but I've been burned enough when it comes to thinking the masses want to see something that isn't something they grew up with. I'll take Migration numbers domestically as a massive victory and Elemental numbers as some unstoppable force at this point. Oh well!

Will say, as an outsider who doesn't really care for Transformers too much, I think the marketing didn't really do much to appeal to anybody outside of hardcore Transformers fans. The only real hook was "they're animated! And Prime and Megatron are now friends I guess". It was already at a disadvantage being an animated movie, and there was nothing else for newcomers or casual fans to get excited over. I love Ninja Turtles, so I do have a bias, but Mutant Mayhem at least had the hook of having the turtles actually being voiced by and acting like modern-day teens, and a cooler, more creative art style. Didn't feel like there was anything fresh here for those not into the franchise like Bumblebee.