Eric Prime

2.6M previews would probably lead to like a 65M 5-Day, assuming things are way more frontloaded compared to 2016/2017. Don't know if Encanto's previews will go that high, but that would basically be the biggest kids title since Space Jam 2.

FWIW, I do think adult-oriented dramas or awards hopefuls will still exist. Regardless of their capitalist piggery, studios like throwing in more prestigious titles that they can sell to streamers or place onto their own services to get some accolades and attention. The only real difference is that they will likely just be day-and-date hybrid releases. They're starting to dwindle now, but I doubt they're going away just yet. I know that will still sting for some of us traditionalists, but it's better than nothing, and you can still catch them at your local multiplex.

I did a cursory look at sales for Gucci the other day, and FWIW it does seem to be doing better than recent adult fare, but I haven’t really placed it under any comps just yet. Still I am hopeful that Gaga at the very least will bring in some of the youths. Plus this and West Side (which is sadly dunzo in my eyes) are the only movies my mom says we have to see together. Maybe it’s a sign

Sigh. I remember when Star Trek Beyond and Jason Bourne were neck-and-neck and there was a friendly rivalry on the boards. Those were the days.

Simple: I was just kind of disappointed by IM here, because I kinda felt like the film would have done like 10x its previews, which it won't. Of course I didn't really account for the 4PM previews start and arguably the film getting more of a fan rush skew. And I initially kinda thought it was reaching a weekend gross in the mid-30s after Gitesh's early numbers, which was below my expectations going into the weekend. Deadline's banking on it reaching in the low 40s off Saturday matinees, and in that respect, I think that's still totally fine. Opening on par with the Feig movie on a lower budget, of course, is really, really good.

@von Kenni All I'm going to say is that it is in fact possible for a film to be review bombed by trolls, while also not being liked by audiences at the same time. Trust me, I was there when all of this was going down.

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-33 and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 50 324 9642 3.36% Total Seats Sold Today: 21

Encanto Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 41 144 6595 2.18% Total Seats Sold Today: 20 Comp 0.356x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-4 (2.75M) 0.966x of Jungle Cruise T-4 (2.61M) 1.190x of Free Guy T-4 (2.62M)

Disappointed at the frontloadedness here. Mickey's Law strikes again I suppose.

Aren't you one of those guys who complains about how critics always get things wrong and they don't understand what audiences want? Why the sudden change?

Summer of Soul already got an A+ IIRC (well-deserved I might add)

Something like that, but I do think Encanto might go above it. Sales are pretty decent so far, with preview numbers estimating around the Coco/Moana range. It'll probably be more frontloaded than those films to account for the passage of time, but it should still go above Afterlife's second weekend.

I mean it's only going to open to like 45M. It would need absurdly good WOM to achieve 4 weeks at #1

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-spider-man-no-way-home/ I have no horse in this race, but early tracking range is 135-185M. hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-spider-man-no-way-home/ Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar (as of 11/19/21) Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor 11/24/2021 Encanto $20,000,000 – $35,000,000 $75,000,000 – $135,000,000 3,800 Walt Disney Pictures 11/24/2021 For the Love of Money 750 Freestyle Releasing 11/24/2021 House of Gucci $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 +15% $30,000,000 – $65,000,000 +15% 3,400 MGM / United Artists Releasing 11/24/2021 Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City $6,000,000 – $10,000,000 -11% $17,000,000 – $30,000,000 -11% 2,600 Sony Pictures / Columbia Pictures 12/3/2021 Red Rocket A24 12/3/2021 Wolf Focus Features 12/10/2021 Don’t Look Up Netflix 12/10/2021 National Champions $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $17,000,000 – $42,000,000 STXfilms 12/10/2021 West Side Story (2020) $14,000,000 – $22,000,000 $55,000,000 – $85,000,000 Disney / 20th Century Studios 12/17/2021 Nightmare Alley $3,000,000 – $7,000,000 $10,000,000 – $22,000,000 Disney / Searchlight Pictures 12/17/2021 Spider-Man: No Way Home $135,000,000 – $185,000,000 $375,000,000 – $525,000,000 Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios

I'll admit that the 4PM start time does make things dicey, but I still feel very confident in a 10x multiplier. Even with this being marketed as a fan-driven beast, I don't think this is the kind of film with a big upfront demand.

Also my goodness is Nas tall.

Production will resume in January...yeah this ain't coming out next year

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