Eric Prime

It's saying that 3.5 or higher is fresh, not 3.5 or higher only.

Weirdly enough, I feel like WW1984 is the biggest question mark for me. I can see it getting your typical supers jump, but I can also see a Spider-Man 2 style drop.

https://deadline.com/2019/05/men-in-black-international-shaft-box-office-projections-1202621286/

Part A: 1. Will Aladdin Open to more than $62.5M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Aladdin Open to more than $87.5M? 2000 No 3. Will Aladdin Open to more than $75M? 3000 No 4. Will Aladdin have a higher Friday - OW multiplier than Dumbo? 4000 Yes 5. Will Aladdin increase on Saturday? 5000 No 6. Will Booksmart open to more than $7M? 1000 No 7. Will Brightburn open to more than $7M? 2000 Yes 8. Will Booksmart open to more than $9M? 3000 No 9. Will Booksmart open to more than $9M? 4000 No 10. Will The two highest non-Aladdin openers combine to more than $16M? 5000 Yes 11. Will John Wick drop more than 58%? 1000 No 12. Will Endgame have a bigger percentage drop than Pikachu? 2000 No 13. Will India's Most Wanted have a PTA above $4,250? 3000 Yes 14. Will La Larona stay above Captain Marvel? 4000 No 15. Will Pikachu's Domestic Total overtake Dumbo by the end of the weekend? 5000 Yes 16. Will the Hustle increase more than 125% on Friday? 1000 Yes 17. Will Poms decrease more than 20% on Sunday? 2000 No 18. Will Ugly Dolls drop more than 72%? 3000 No 19. Will Endgame Overtake Avatar Worldwide by the end of the weekend? (May as well keep this one till forever) 4000 No 20. Will watching Aladdin give you such a crick in the neck? 5000 My theater does have some stiff seats. Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Aladdin make for its 3 day OW? $74M 2. What will Long Shot's Sunday gross be? $660K 3. What will The Intruder's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $1,270 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. Avengers: Endgame 5. Brightburn 7. A Dog's Journey 8. Booksmart 10. Long Shot 12. Poms

Week 5: NO

Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday Blockers 504 1,106 2,931 Truth Or Dare 385 760 2,133 SW: Solo 13,688 15,855 28,533 Hereditary 659 1,178 3,181 Incredibles 2 20,872 23,430 39,337 Tag 314 660 1,448 Antman & The Wasp 6,613 5,990 11,108 Christopher Robin 1,560 2,442 5,355 11,509 The Spy Who Dumped Me 234 542 1,561 4,222 The Meg 1,539 2,944 6,723 16,202 Happytime Murders 382 *488 1,954 5,602 Predator 1,295 2,476 4,545 13,063 A Simple Favor 564 2,126 4,410 10,381 Nutcracker 1,659 1,949 2,567 5,518 Overlord 299 604 1,599 4,522 Fantastic Beasts 8,956 14,238 21,861 31,880 Spider-Verse 3,715 5,208 9,858 19,972 Lego Movie 2 2,552 4,130 8,601 13,320 The Prodigy 161 359 847 2,288 How to Train Your Dragon 3 3,724 6,674 12,935 21,313 Dumbo 3,069 4,624 9,218 16,140 The Curse of La Llorona 896 1,159 2,704 8,279 The Hustle 485 1,012 2,316 3,024 Pokemon Detective Pikachu 5,061 7,653 13,177 23,309 Aladdin 9,948 12,038 21,152 Brightburn 554 858 1,596 Booksmart 208 448 1,014 *4pm-12am Laddy Wednesday before release 97% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (60.1M) 74% of Solo (62.6M) 214% of Spider-Verse (75.9M) 246% of Lego 2 (83.9M) 160% of Detective Pikachu (87.3M) 163% of Dragon 3 (90M) 395% of Christopher Robin (97.1M) 54% of Incredibles 2 (98.2M) 229% of Dumbo (105.5M) 190% of Ant-Man 2 (144.4M) 824% of Nutcracker (167.7M) Last 7 Days (8-2) 74% of Solo (62.1M) 50% of Incredibles 2 (91.3M) 280% of Lego 2 (95.6M) 192% of Dragon 3 (105.5M) 263% of Dumbo (120.9M) Day 18-2 50% of Incredibles 2 (91.8M) 289% of Lego 2 (98.8M) 192% of Dragon 3 (105.6M) 252% of Dumbo (116.1M) So a couple comps saw a slight increase (Incredibles in particular, which, again, is probably the best comp to use), but the majority saw a decrease. But again, all the numbers seem respectable, but with terrible theater reports and mixed critical reception...there's still room for concern. Brightburn Wednesday 50% of Hereditary (6.8M) 35% of The Predator (8.6M) 100% of Overlord (10.2M) 24% of The Meg (10.8M) 188% of The Prodigy (11M) 75% of Truth or Dare (14M) 59% of La Llorona (15.5M) Almost all of these comps saw huge decreases too. Looks like we're in for a bad weekend. Booksmart Wednesday 23% of A Simple Favor (3.7M) 52% of Happytime Murders (4.9M) 44% of The Hustle (5.7M) 35% of Blockers (7.1M) 65% of Spy Who Dumped Me (7.9M) 70% of Tag (10.5M) Megan Ellison needs to be stopped.

....guess I'm heading to Sacto soon

That might be the case actually. My local theater only has four Thursday showtimes, 2 of which in 3D and 16 shows on Friday. I don't remember what Pikachu and Wick were like, but I'm pretty sure there was at least one more show for each. I guess the thinking is that Aladdin is going to appeal to families who likely wouldn't go to a Thursday show in the first place, and with Endgame, Wick and Pikachu all delivering at least 2M in the dailies at the moment, there's little incentive for theaters to push for extra showtimes. So as a message to all reading this, if Aladdin's previews seem "soft", please, for the love of God, don't freak out!

As somebody who follows the hourly numbers, new releases almost always see a decline during the afternoon hours, and peak in the morning or early afternoon and late nights. That's mainly because people are trying to buy tickets for stuff currently in theaters and watch said stuff later tonight. Doesn't help that the John Wick series skews heavily to weekdays. And FWIW, Aladdin's Wednesday is outpacing its Thursday by about 86%, which would translate to about 22.4K tickets. I do think it will decrease from that percentage by the end of the day, but I'd say 20K is a very, very strong possibility, and would be a solid result for the movie.

All this tells me is that this is a masterpiece and Guy Ritchie is a visionary

Gotchu homie

There are early screenings?

TOMATOMETER 60% All Critics | Top Critics Average Rating: 6.14/10 Reviews Count: 67 Fresh: 40 Rotten: 27 #ItLives

your're really weird

I'm flattered by the comparison

I actually do get that number. For the past couple of years, the actuals for MDW went below Deadline's projections before release. That's not just when it comes to Disney. Even stuff like Apocalypse and Baywatch were way below projections. Better to play it safe rather than go way below and try and save face. Even after Lily James was in Cinderella, Baby Driver and Darkest Hour, Fandango still put her as a "Rising Star" last year for Mamma Mia 2. Generally speaking, they use "Rising Star" in a very loose term. Praying Queen Lily makes Yesterday the summer breakout. 🙏

https://ew.com/movies/2019/05/22/spider-man-far-from-home-fandango-summer-movies-survey/ A little late, but the Fandango summer movie survey thing just got published. It's never something to take that seriously, but it's always fun to look through.

Gee, it seems you don't really like the new music. Please tell us again with three more consecutive posts.

Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday A Wrinkle In Time 3,698 4,864 15,601 Blockers 504 1,106 2,931 Truth Or Dare 385 760 2,133 SW: Solo 13,688 15,855 28,533 Hereditary 659 1,178 3,181 Incredibles 2 20,872 23,430 39,337 Tag 314 660 1,448 Antman & The Wasp 6,613 5,990 11,108 Christopher Robin 1,560 2,442 5,355 11,509 The Spy Who Dumped Me 234 542 1,561 4,222 The Meg 1,539 2,944 6,723 16,202 Happytime Murders 382 *488 1,954 5,602 Predator 1,295 2,476 4,545 13,063 A Simple Favor 564 2,126 4,410 10,381 Nutcracker 1,659 1,949 2,567 5,518 Overlord 299 604 1,599 4,522 Fantastic Beasts 8,956 14,238 21,861 31,880 Spider-Verse 3,715 5,208 9,858 19,972 Lego Movie 2 2,552 4,130 8,601 13,320 The Prodigy 161 359 847 2,288 How to Train Your Dragon 3 3,724 6,674 12,935 21,313 Dumbo 3,069 4,624 9,218 16,140 The Curse of La Llorona 896 1,159 2,704 8,279 The Hustle 485 1,012 2,316 3,024 Pokemon Detective Pikachu 5,061 7,653 13,177 23,309 Aladdin 9,948 12,038 Brightburn 554 858 Booksmart 208 448 Laddy Tuesday before release 84% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (52.6M) 76% of Solo (64.1M) 231% of Spider-Verse (81.7M) 248% of A Wrinkle in Time (82M) 157% of Detective Pikachu (85.5M) 51% of Incredibles 2 (93.9M) 180% of Dragon 3 (99.2M) 291% of Lego 2 (99.4M) 260% of Dumbo (119.7M) 493% of Christopher Robin (121.2M) 618% of Nutcracker (125.7M) 201% of Ant-Man 2 (152.3M) Last 7 Days (9-3) 70% of Solo (60.1M) 48% of Incredibles 2 (87.3M) 318% of Lego 2 (108.6M) 219% of Dragon 3 (120.4M) 291% of Dumbo (134.2M) Day 18-3 49% of Incredibles 2 (88.9M) 318% of Lego 2 (108.6M) 210% of Dragon 3 (115.8M) 266% of Dumbo (122.3M) The Incredibles comps, arguably the best movie to use here, all saw slight increases...then just about everything else, with a few other exceptions, decreased, often by a lot. 🤔 I guess the good thing is, again, Incredibles (and also Solo) saw an increase, and the range has gone down, which is at least easier for us to pin down a number (whether that's 3-Day or 4-Day is up to you). But it's still a pretty soft increase, when I feel it could have done a bit better the Tuesday before release. Let's just hope tomorrow gives us good reviews and a good boost. Brightburn Tuesday 35% of The Predator (8.5M) 73% of Hereditary (9.9M) 29% of The Meg (13.2M) 239% of The Prodigy (14M) 142% of Overlord (14.5M) 74% of La Llorona (19.5M) 113% of Truth or Dare (21.1M) Another movie that saw a decrease from its comps compared to yesterday. I had doubts this was going to hit high teens, but this pretty much confirms my doubts. Booksmart Tuesday 21% of A Simple Favor (3.4M) 44% of The Hustle (5.8M) 40% of Blockers (8.3M) 83% of Spy Who Dumped Me (10M) 68% of Tag (10.1M) And yet again, another soft jump from yesterday, resulting in decreases in comps. But I guess it didn't drop that hard? But yeah, pretty weird that all three movies had pretty soft increases today. Hopefully that isn't foreboding something bad in the future.

...do I dare?

Also @WrathOfHan you might be right. At least from audio, Will's Friend Like Me does sound like it's gonna slap.

@TMP BIG WILLIE RAP AND DJ KHALED COLLAB THIS IS THE GREATEST THING EVER