Eric Prime

Alpha, are you allergic to volunteering?

I am very lost and confused right now.

April 26 Avengers: Endgame: We’re finally at the big one. The big kahuna. So Infinity War smashed all expectations, became a massive event, everyone liked it, yadda yadda yadda. After that massive cliffhanger, everyone will want to come back to see how the characters will return, who will end up dead, and see what is essentially the culmination of the past 11 years of MCU goodness. The trailer’s already broken Infinity War’s record, and has a great pull on giving viewers just enough of a taste of what’s to come. The only real hurdle is whether this movie will deliver a satisfying ending. But at this point, creatively, Marvel has earned my trust. However, and I know this is going to get me lynched, but I think Endgame will gross less than Infinity War. Infinity War really played up itself as the big finale, and I don’t think they can recreate the same marketing tactics as that film. The teaser’s more melancholy tone’s certainly effective. But it’s not gonna make general audiences hyped. Maybe trailer 2 will show off the spectacle and the goods, but I still don't think it'll be enough, considering how high Infinity War went. It also doesn’t help that the competition comes earlier. Remember, Infinity War had three weeks all to itself. And while it wasn’t the main reason for its solid legs, I’d be lying if I said I thought it didn't impact its performance and legs a little bit. With Detective Pikachu on the 10th, it only has two. That means something. Also I just think it’ll be more frontloaded. This has a much larger finale factor, which can lead to a huge opening weekend rush, and a massive decline in the coming weeks. And I doubt the ending is going to be so shocking people will tell their non-MCU obsessed friends to check it out like they did with Infinity War. It’ll still do very well though, and is guaranteed a spot in the top three biggest DOM grossers this year. But will it be #1 of the year? Let’s just wait and see. 270/635 (2.35x)

April 19 Breakthrough: I can see audiences gravitating toward the film. The story has a good inspirational angle, and Chrissy Metz could bring in some of the This Is Us crowd. Faith-based films are hit and miss at the box office, but this seems like a hit, especially with it coming out on Easter. Miracles from Heaven seems like a good comparison. 15/20/60 (4x, 3x) Penguins: The one Disney movie that deserves to make the most money, but won’t. Average numbers for Disneynature ahoy. 5/6/16 (3.2x, 2.67x) The Curse of La Llorona: Wan da Gawd's a producer. Horror's also on a hit streak. But I don't think this will be a hit. Trailer views are exceedingly low (3.6M on WB's YouTube channel. Both Us and Pet Semetary are miles ahead of it), and it's coming out a week before the Death Star that is Endgame. Just doesn't seem like the hype is there compared to most other horror releases. 20/50 (2.5x)

Quick thoughts: - It's surprising that Lion King is so low down the list. Guess we are being too bullish on its chances. -Also strange that Frozen 2 is only #3 for animated movies. Then again, this doesn't have any trailers or marketing materials yet, so it's not too concerning. -Emma Watson gets a mention for Little Women, but Chalabae doesn't? This poll's rigged, lemme tell ya

https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2018/12/28/avengers-endgame-captain-marvel-lead-most-anticipated-2019-films/2425578002/ Fandango's Most Anticipated of the Year is up again. As always, take this stuff with a huge grain of salt.

Sandler's working with the guys who made Good Time on a crime drama w/ A24, so he's differentiating too. Although at the same time he's doing another Netflix movie with the creator of Workaholics directing it. I've also said this before, but I hope McKay comes back to comedies again. Another Ferrell-McKay joint is long overdue at this point.

Shazam's pushing to being more a family feature, and it also has no competition until Endgame, as well as Easter weekend.

When I saw Into the Spider-Verse, I had a whole swig of water and really really needed to pee after the movie was over. But I basically forced myself to stay though the credits just so I can watch the post-credits scene, and it felt like absolute torture. That was a bad mistake on my part.

I really hate this attitude of "People had higher expectations, so its gross is automatically disappointing." As the guy who did the 400M club for Poppins, I didn't think it was definitely going to do it no matter what. It seemed like a longshot, where everything had to go right. But it's still one of the highest-grossing musicals ever, is seeing great legs and word of mouth, and will be profitable in the end. Could it have done better? Sure. But we shouldn't disparage a $200M+ grosser because of a couple overambitious predictions. People here thought Deadpool 2 was going to increase from its predecessor and make over $150M on its OW. It didn't. But are we really going to argue that it didn't have an impressive run either way? People were also spouting that Aquaman would cross $400M and be a mini-Jurassic World. That doesn't seem like it's happening either, yet y'all are silent and aren't talking about people overestimating it. HMMMMMMMMM.

Han...what are you thinking?

April 12 After: Fifty Shades for teens? Gross. Anyways, this is a YA adaptation, from a director I’ve never heard of, with a writer best known for episodes of Mom and Two and a Half Men, and starring a cast of D-listers. This is all yikes. 5/10 (2x) Hellboy: The recent trailer, as well as the “Legendary AF” marketing makes the movie seem like the del Toro movies, but with no soul or charm. So with that said, who exactly is this movie for? Fans of the first two movies won’t care about this reboot, while the brand isn’t anything exciting to general audiences. With Shazam already playing and Avengers down the road, this is going to be lost in the shuffle, just like The Golden Army. Sorry David Harbour. 15/35 (2.33x) Little: Will Packer’s been a consistent success-maker for a few years, and the reverse Big/13 Going on 30 premise seems cute. It won’t do amazing, but it will find a decent-sized audience and be good counterprogramming. 18/60 (3.33x) Missing Link: It’s Annapurna’s first animated release, as well as Laika’s first film free from Focus’ clutches. I don’t see this doing much better than their previous offerings, especially with Annapurna being Annapurna and the mediocre first trailer. Add in stop-motion, and the film seems like it will be more diminishing returns. Sorry Travis Knight. At least Bumblebee’s doing okay for ya. 10/35 (3.5x)

April 5 The Best of Enemies: With Queen Taraji and Sam Rockwell in the cast, there could be some interest based on that pairing. The trailer’s effective and interesting enough, so it could work as good drama counterprogramming, especially if reviews are solid. 15/50 (3.33x) Pet Sematary: This is the first film attempting to capitalize on the success of IT. I don’t know what expectations on BOT are, but I feel like it’ll disappoint. The teaser didn’t seem like it caught on at all, and it’s not really that popular of a King story to begin with. Plus with La Llorona two weeks later, this won’t have great legs. Sorry Lithgow 25/65 (2.6x) Shazam!: I've seen a couple of 400M predix thrown around for Shazam here and there. Personally I don't see it. This seems like it’ll be the Ant-Man of the DCEU. Not a bad thing, mind you. It seems more family-oriented than all of the other films, which will help it when it comes to legs. The actual trailer is pretty funny, and the marketing is appealing to both fanboys and families. But I don’t think it will have a giant opening, since I do think some people might find the concept and trailers to be a tad juvenile. It also has a lack of connection to the other DCEU movies. I’d argue stuff like Wonder Woman and Aquaman benefited from being introduced in BvS and JL to familiarize audiences with these interpretations. However, good word and family appeal will really help deliver strong legs a la Ant-Man, and its opening should still be mighty strong. And while Avengers could dampen its late legs, it's still got more or less three weeks all to itself. 80/240 (3x)

Wait for Endgame

March 30 Captive State: Ashton Sanders is coming to sweep me and my indie twink-lovin' ass off my feet (Still love you Chalabae). Anyways, this has a pretty cool concept, and a good cast and crew. The trailers are mysterious, but not quite as effective as something like Us. It'll be a mild hit, but likely a cult classic down the line. 13/40 (3.08x) Dumbo: Disney’s really going all in on live-action remakes this year, and this will be a great kick-off (it also looks like the only one that will be any good ). The trailers are great, Dumbo looks adorable, and it seems like a real crowd pleaser. Views on YouTube are also strong, as the second trailer has already beaten out Mary Poppins Returns in terms of views. It also has baby elephants. That's the best hook for any movie. The downside, however, is the family competition, with Captain Marvel and Shazam surrounding it. But it does have the benefit of being a great option for kids not interested in superheroes. Yes, they do exist. Although Wonder Park could complicate things if it turns out to be a hit. A run similar to Cinderella seems like an obvious thing to go for. 60/205 (3.42x)

March 22 Five Feet Apart: I got the trailer for this in front of Fantastic Beasts, and I was genuinely surprised at how enjoyable and charming this looked. There’s also not much out for teens outside of Captain Marvel, so this could find a comfortable niche for this demographic. A Love, Simon run seems likely here. 12/40 (3.33x) Greyhound: I'm not exactly sure if this is coming out on this release date. We should have gotten a trailer by now. But I'll just put it here anyway. A trailer in January might happen, ya never know. The film, a WWII-set war drama featuring Tom Hanks released in March reminds me of The Monuments Men back in 2014. An adult counterprogrammer early in the year with a famous actor. So, around that number. 20/75 (3.75x) The Informer: Rosamund Pike? Yeah. Joel Kinnaman? No. The lack of starpower and the generic plot makes this seem like a no1curr kind of flick. 6/15 (2.5x) Where’d You Go, Bernadette?: Bit hard to use other Linklater movies since they opened in limited release instead of wide, but this has a cool cast, and potential good reviews should help generate a little bit of interest. Although with Annapurna being Annapurna, who knows what will happen? Probably results slightly better than Tully, although it'll probably be more of a crowd-pleaser. 5/20 (4x)

https://deadline.com/2018/12/tom-hanks-sony-mister-rogers-film-title-1202526563/ Now titled A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. I loved the hell out of Can You Ever Forgive Me, so I’m hyped for this.

🤔

I meant in that two giant openers back to back.

March 15 Us: I GOT FIIIIIIIVE ON IT. So obviously these predictions are inflated by the recent trailer. But I don't care, because I legit believe this will be a breakout. On Christmas, the movie was trending for a whole day and invaded people's Twitter feeds in a way that hasn't been seen since IT back in 2017. Trailer views on YouTube aren't like IT, but for a completely original horror film, the fact that it was able to approach more than 7.4M after two days is mad impressive. Outside of that, the actual hook of evil doppelgangers is interesting and exciting, while the trailer is both scary and intriguing at the same time, with people already spouting theories about the rabbits and the kid's mask. And with Jordan Peele and the success of Get Out, the film already has appeal to more than just horror or Blumhouse fans. People into the prestige of Peele will be into it. Genre fans will be into it. Black Twitter will be into it. It just seems it will have a strong sense of four-quad appeal and bring in all types of audiences in a way few horror movies can. Expect a JW/IO situation here with Captain Marvel and this. 80/250 (3.12x) Wonder Park: Well, this is a long time coming, isn’t it? It was initially slated for March 2019, then moved forward to July 2018, then to August 2018, and now back to its original release date. Meanwhile, the film’s former director would later be fired from the project due to sexual misconduct, with the new director being David Feiss, the creator of Cartoon Network’s Cow and Chicken of all things. And somehow, this mess is supposed to lead into a Nickelodeon animated series later on down the road. Admittedly, the initial teaser did make things seem a touch promising quality-wise. But then trailer 2 came along and introduced the “chimpanzombies.” Yeah. Otherwise, it looks utterly generic and uninteresting. With Dumbo and Shazam coming up, as well as Captain Marvel playing next door, I could see many families saving their money for those more appealing projects. Good luck Nickelodeon on this turkey, because this probably won’t reach Jimmy Neutron levels. Even Barnyard levels feel like a stretch. 18/60 (3.33x)

March 8 Captain Marvel: Okay. Now we’re getting to the big boys. Ever since her brief reveal in Infinity War, this film has been set to be a smash when it comes out. Being the first solo female-led film in the MCU will certainly give it good hype, and while some people aren’t into the trailers, it still managed to get really strong views and many seem to like what they see. The intergalactic setting and visuals help out too. Plus, like Wonder Woman, this seems like it will be an empowering film for a demographic largely ignored in the superhero genre. It might also benefit if the film plays an integral part in the story of Avengers: Endgame. The International Women’s Day release date helps it too. Basically, this has everything going for it. This obviously won’t be as big as Black Panther, but this will still be huge, and expect Brie Larson to at least be in the top 5 March OWs 130/355 (2.7x)

March 1 Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral: This should do solid, mid-range levels for Perry. Part of what made the first Madea Halloween so big was because there was a three-year gap between Madea projects. It's smaller, but with a 17-month or so gap since Boo 2!, that’s a decent amount of time for audiences to be interested in another Madea adventure. It’s also slated to be the last Madea film, so if marketed in that way, there could be kind of a finale factor here. 25/57 (2.28x)