Eric Prime

C'mon Illumination. Stop cockteasing, and give me my Harrison Ford trailer.

@WrathOfHan I see you with that WTF reaction. Please don't tell me you're predicting 200M for Zombieland or some shit.

October 18 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood: Tom Hanks is Mr. Rogers. That’s the best hook you could ever want for a movie. Hanks and Rogers are both America’s Sweethearts, so having the two together should see great success and be catnip for seniors. The success of Won’t You Be My Neighbor last summer shows that people love Fred Rogers, while Marielle Heller’s made some great movies in the past. I feel like the movie could move to November or December to great success, but I think it’s fine where it is. Gemini Man needs it way more. Regardless, I’m seeing a huge breakout here. 35/150 (4.28x) The other October releases are untitled, so...

October 11 The Addams Family: From the directors of Sausage Party and the animation studio behind Gnome Alone and The Star, this is a pretty big wildcard. Could be a hit, could come and go. I’m leaning somewhere in the middle. Abominable will still be in theaters at this point, but the brand has a decent enough pull, the cast is cool, and the art direction has a nice Burton-esque quirk to it, even if it may not be super commercial. A decent, Goosebumps-esque run. 23/70 (3.04x) Are You Afraid of the Dark?: It’s kind of cool to see this old Nickelodeon show back as a movie. Also cool to have Gary Dauberman in charge of the screenplay. Less cool is having D. J. Caruso as the director. Still, unless the Blumhouse and Aviron horror movies come through, this is currently one of only three spooky movies coming out this October (coincidentally, they’re all coming out on the same day), and this is the one with the broadest appeal. I don’t know if this is gearing more towards families or not (the director and writer’s work says otherwise. Then again, this is from Nickelodeon Movies. But then again Nickelodeon Movies have done PG-13 movies before...), but judging by the creative team, this seems like it’ll be a straightforward horror movie that has broad appeal. Addams Family will skew more to kids, while Zombieland is super niche. This will likely have more appeal than something like Dora, so I guess it will do slightly better than that. But Nickelodeon, just give me my Drake & Josh movie already. That’s where the real money is. 20/50 (2.5x) The Goldfinch: Ansolo strikes again, with a WB-Amazon co-production based on a best-selling novel. The cast is solid, John Crowley’s a good director, and the book seems pretty popular. This could be a solid counterprogrammer in October, especially if the film delivers and gets awards attention. Also seems like it could be super leggy. 15/75 (5x) Zombieland 2: This seems about 8 years too late. The first Zombieland was well-liked, but wasn’t that big of a hit in the first place. But unlike other cult hits like Austin Powers and Anchorman, this has not had any relevance in pop culture whatsoever and hasn’t had a second wind in home video or cable airings (at least, to my knowledge). But I guess there’s enough of a following that this could open around Super Troopers 2, and garner better legs. I dunno. Just seems like a waste of everyone’s time. 13/40 (3.08x)

October 5 Gemini Man: This really needs to move to November or December and away from this crowded month. Ang Lee’s a hit-and-miss director at the box office. Will Smith’s also been a hit-and-miss actor at the box office rather recently. Put them together, and you have...a movie that could maybe do alright? Reportedly, the effects are supposed to be really impressive, and it has a very interesting concept, even if it lowkey rips off Looper. If the film manages to get any Oscar buzz, this will only further help this film’s chances. However, the big drawback, again, is the release date. With Joker attracting its male demographic, and Woman in the Window attracting its "prestige" demographic, Paramount really needs to push this somewhere else if they want this to cross 100M and break even on what seems to be a big-budget feature. 20/75 (3.75x) Joker: The Joker’s probably the most famous comic book villain of all time, the Scorsese-esque crime drama storyline is unique for the superhero genre, Joaquin Phoenix is ultra-talented, and it will be the first comic book movie since Far From Home. This definitely has a lot going for it, and I feel WB’s marketing campaign will really deliver in making this exciting to fanboys and even adults looking for a compelling crime drama. The October OW record will be broken once again. But we might have to wait until Venom 2 for the 100M OW ceiling to be broken. 90/270 (3x) The Woman in the Window: Amy Adams will finally get an Oscar win? (This will age well if Adams does end up winning this year for Vice) The premise is engaging, Joe Wright’s a reliable filmmaker, and the cast is excellent. But with Gemini Man, Joker, Goldfinch, and Neighborhood also targeting adult audiences, this film will have to really stand out, in both marketing and acclaim. I’m gonna be bold and say this will stand out and become a major awards contender. It seems silly to predict this bold off of something that might not happen, but this is a controversial prediction thread, no? 30/105 (3.5x)

Escape Room 111 368 1,543 Movie/Day Monday Tuesday Wednesday Dogs Way Home 9 9 25 Replicas 2 5 0 Upside 6 16 48 Us 17 18 11 Escape Room's Wednesday: 173% of Hannah Grace's: 11.1M 233% of Hell Fest's: 12M 141% of Slender Man's: 16.1M

Not really related to Picture, but this thread gets more attention and I'm a like whore: I'm gonna be bold and say Cynthia Erivo in Harriet will will Best Actress. Picking up some Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour vibes (hopefully not the performance, more her being the big frontrunner even before the movie comes out). Also gonna say that Lupita gets in for Us, but the movie doesn't get in for BP.

September 27 Abominable: Dreamworks’ second animated film under Universal, and largely animated by their former Chinese division, Abominable’s premise seems a bit tired since we just had Smallfoot last year, but I think there’s potential in this one. Dreamworks has better brand recognition than Warner Animation Group, the Chinese setting is more compelling and interesting, and its September and October competition doesn't have much going for them at the moment. I can see a Trolls or Megamind style run here. 45/155 (3.44x) The Art of Racing in the Rain: Yet another dog movie based on a book. Except this time a book not from the Dog’s Purpose guy, but with Simon Curtis, a director who actually has decent clout behind him, and Simon Bomback, the writer of the recent Planet of the Apes movies. I guess it has that going for it, and the book it’s based on is apparently popular. Don’t see it being a massive hit, but will probably be the biggest out of all of the talking dog movies coming out this year. 18/60 (3.33x) The Hunt: A Damon Lindelof-scripted political thriller from Blumhouse sounds very interesting and up my alley. There’s very little else known about the project, so it’s hard to really make a prediction, but maybe this will appeal towards adults and the Blumhouse fanbase? 20/70 (3.5x)

September 20 The Kitchen: Here’s something interesting: Melissa McCarthy and Tiffany Haddish (and Elisabeth Moss) in a crime drama based on a Vertigo comic book series. All three ladies have their fanbases, and the idea of seeing McCarthy and Haddish in a serious movie could be an interesting hook if the marketing plays the subversion in the right ways. It’s hard to really determine how well this movie will do with no understanding of the movie nor its marketing, but I’ll be gutsy and say this will be a surprise hit. 40/120 (3x) I'm just going to assume Downton Abbey will be limited, mainly because I'm lazy and don't want to do another write-up, so...

September 13 Spies in Disguise: Blue Sky’s been on a rough patch domestically. Ice Age 5 dropped 60% from the last film, while Ferdinand came and went. This film? I dunno. Abominable will likely hurt its legs, and while the trailer started out promising, the pigeon stuff seems pretty lame. Pretty much every reaction of the movie that I’ve seen consists of, “Man Will Smith in an animated spy comedy? This looks awes--oh, he’s a pigeon now. Umm...okay?” It’s the same reactions as something like Princess and the Frog, only without the catchy Randy Newman songs. Somewhere between Ice Age 5 and Ferdinand sounds about right. 23/75 (3.26x)

September 6 It: Chapter 2: This should see a slight decline from the previous movie, but it will still obviously do amazing. The cast has some decent names, the trailers will likely have some good set pieces, and It is still insanely popular. Second biggest September OW, and will probably hold that record for a very long time (inb4 Abominable gets 200M OW) 115/300 (2.61x)

I think Uni made the right call in the States tbh. If it came out next week, families would have already spent so much on all the holiday offerings that interest would probably be lower. Also helps that it will have two weeks of IMAX all to itself instead of one if it opened on the 11th.

Better Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve drops usually means weaker bumps on the following days.

Escape Room's Tuesday is: 129% of Hannah Grace's: 8.3M 121% of Hell Fest's: 6.2M 88% of Slender Man's: 10M

Escape Room 111 368 Movie/Day Monday Tuesday Dogs Way Home 9 9 Replicas 2 5 Upside 6 16 Us 17 18

I hate to do this but UM ACTUALLY the Ari Aster movie does have a plot! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midsommar_(film)

August 23 Angel Has Fallen: The franchise returns once again, with likely another decline in box office. Mile 22 numbers seem about right. 12/33 (2.75x) Overcomer: It’s always hard to analyze faith-based movies, as they are easily the most sink-or-swim genre at the box office. But this one does have the guy behind War Room as a director. That will ensure interest in faith-based audiences, as well as potential good holds. Let's assume a higher opening, but strong, if weaker than WR's, legs. 15/80 (5.33x)

August 16 The Angry Birds Movie 2: The first Angry Birds movie crossed $100M 4 or 5 years after the game’s peak in popularity. The sequel’s now coming out 7 or 8 years after the game’s peak in popularity. The first movie had abnormally bad legs for a family movie, not even reaching 3x. Sure, Dory and Pets played a part, but it's clear a lot of people did not like what they saw. Parents have likely already had their wallets drained for the summer and are waiting for the fall releases to come out. Its opening will probably be passable, and maybe having the creator of Cartoon Network's Flapjack as the director will help give it a boost quality-wise. But expect there to be a bit of a drop. 28/80 (2.86x) Boss Level: *reads premise* lmao is this just an Edge of Tomorrow knock-off with Mel Gibson? Oh Entertainment Studios. Never change. 5/10 (2x) Good Boys: The concept, an R-rated comedy with Jacob Tremblay and a bunch of other young boys swearing for 90 minutes, sounds like a disaster, even with Rogen as a producer. This won’t be a Happytime Murders-level flop, but expect this to be a dud regardless. 10/23 (2.3x) PLAYMOBIL: Anya, why? 7/20 (2.86x)

Anyone know when tickets will be on sale? Feel like they should be available by now.

16% drop. That's better than both Monsters Inc. 3D in 2012 and Alvin and the Chipmunks in 2007 (that one did come out a week earlier tho)

August 9 Artemis Fowl: Kenneth Branagh’s follow-up after doing solid business with both Cinderella and Orient Express, this will be a downgrade when it comes to box office. The book series isn’t as popular as it once was, while the trailer was pretty lame, apparently failed to excite fans, and basically came and went online. Lion King will still be roaring strong too, so I don’t see how this will catch on at all. 20/65 (3.5x) Midsommar: Hereditary surprised everyone with a 3.25x multiplier after a dreadful Cinemascore. Now Ari Aster is back with another movie that will make us shit our pants. It’s a bit hard to judge this movie considering we have no trailer to base off of. Admittedly, I’m leaning towards it making less. Toni Collette’s acclaimed performance helped, and I don’t think the hook in the marketing will be as strong as the tongue clicking kid in the last movie. Scary Stories is also coming out same day. I dunno. Again, I need a trailer. 11/33 (3x) Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark: The director of Autopsy of Jane Doe and Trollhunter, with Guillermo del F*ckin’ Toro as a producer seems like a good creative team. It’s apparently based off a children’s book series, but I don’t think this is going to go for kids based off the director’s previous works. Like Midsommar, one that’s hard to grasp until we get a trailer. Just gonna assume the del Toro name draws people's attentions more than Ari Aster's. 15/40 (2.67x)

Well, I guess I might as well do a couple of mine. August 2 Dora the Explorer: Just the very idea of this movie’s existence makes me laugh my ass off. A live-action adaptation of a Nick Jr. show that sees Dora dealing with high school? It definitely feels like Paramount was really scrounging for ideas when this got greenlit. Not only is the premise stupid, this movie doesn’t seem like it will appeal to anyone. Preschoolers likely won’t be interested in a live-action spin that sees the character they know all grown up. Hell, the actual show ended in 2014, so do many current-day preschoolers even know who Dora is? The brand has no appeal towards adults, and it’s a stretch to say kids today will have much interest in seeing a show targeted towards babies on the big screen. With Lion King still bringing in money, don’t expect this to stick around. 10/35 (3.5x) Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw: For the record @WrathOfHan, you need to change your name to WrathofHobbs when this comes out. It's just a perfect name change. Anyway, we finally have a studio capitalizing on the Guardians/Suicide Squad weekend with another big summer end capper. Of course, this won’t be anywhere near as big as those movies, but I think this will do very well. There’s already a lot of publicity for the film with the Rock/Tyrese feud, while Johnson and Statham certainly have their fanbases, and people liked them together in F8 of the Furious. Add on David Leitch as a director, and Idris Elba as the villain, and it’s fair to say this could do reasonably well, especially since August and Labor Day will somewhat alleviate the franchise’s typical frontloaded nature. 80/195 (2.43x) New Mutants: Ah yes, the X-Men movie that was supposed to come out April last year. Like Dark Phoenix, does anyone actually care about this? Hobbs and Shaw’s already coming out the same day, and Fox is probably twiddling their thumbs, waiting for Disney to put the X-Men in the MCU. And while Dark Phoenix at least has characters fans will recognize there’s nothing for fans of the FOX-Men to really latch on to in the marketing, so there’s even less appeal. Sorry Anya. 20/50 (2.5x)