Eric Quinn

Honestly? I'm kind of guilty of this sometimes. My brain has become so hardwired to check my phone that sometimes I'll just check Telegram or Twitter for a couple minutes, just to see what people are saying. Even for good movies I do this stuff. And in many ways, it can be very beneficial when I'm watching a bad one. I don't know if this is a me thing, but I wouldn't be surprised if other people did that stuff too. And thankfully, I've never had any experience where somebody was talking on the phone or playing a game.

I took my mom to see Maestro at our local arthouse theater, and it felt so refreshing to have it start at a normal time. You had about 15 minutes consisting of an intro from the theater owner, asking for donations and stuff, one or two commercials for events the theater does (repertory re-releases and junk), then a couple trailers for new movies, and then the movie started. I know what I'm talking about is only like a 25 minute or 30 minute difference, and obviously a nonprofit theater isn't reliant on Toyota ads and stuff, but that really does make a difference. Unless you're watching something on Tubi, and we are conditioned to accept ads on TV more than at the movie theater for obvious reasons, nobody wants this inconvenience thrown at you.

All this stuff is accurate, but the bolded part drives me up the wall. I love my Regal, and they did a good job refurbishing it to make it more modern and fancy, even if one or two auditoriums clearly need to be fixed up after two years. But it feels like every year, they keep increasing the amount of ads you see before the movie. A showing that started at 5:00 used to mean the trailers would start at 5. Which like...kinda misleading, but trailers were always part of the moviegoing experience. Not the most egregious thing I guess. Then it's gone to about 5 minutes of random ads. But now, when a show starts at 5, you're still seeing 10 minutes of random ads for Mountain Dew and M&Ms and Toyota. 10 extra minutes of that crap. And sometimes, I'm pretty sure it goes to 11 or 12 minutes. Sometimes, even near 15 minutes. Then you get the 25 minutes of movie trailers...which are now broken up with another random commercial for Trivago or some crap in the middle of it. It's torturous. So your movie now starts about 40 or 45 minutes from the allotted showtime. Like I'm sure this is done so Regal/AMC can make these advertisers pay extra, but man...you think about the time it takes to drive, the costs for the tickets even at the base price, with most people paying extra to see it in IMAX/4DX, the costs if you want popcorn and water, and then you have to wait 40 minutes to see the movie you paid money for...yeah, it's no wonder streaming and VOD won the battle.

And people wonder why I'm so negative here. Hmmmmmmmm.

https://deadline.com/2023/12/box-office-2024-predictions-movies-cinemas-1235682149/

@4815162342 You know what? You're right. The Color Purple isn't a nostalgic toy commercial after all. If it was, it would have had good legs. Guess they should have made Celie and Shug action figures. 🤷‍♂️

This month still sucks though. Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead to be honest.

May 24 Furiosa: Fury Road was already a strong hit back in 2015 and its esteem and reputation has only grown over the years. Sadly, this being a prequel does kind of limit things, and trailer reception was surprisingly on the iffy side. I'm also not sure why it's coming out the same weekend as Planet of the Apes. Still, if Miller delivers something on par with that classic, who knows what the ceiling is? But for now, let’s just go with the idea that it’s good, but slightly less impressive than its predecessor. 40/140 (3.5x) Garfield: This has always been a recognizable and memed franchise, and the trailer has done well in getting animation fans excited and interested. Plus it’s a nostalgic toy commercial, and...well, you know what I have to say about that. Don’t quite think this has the epic breakout chance of a Minions movie or something, but we should be fine either way, and perform better than most animated movies these days. 55/180 (3.27x) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: The lack of Caesar, the most universally loved aspect of the reboot trilogy, will probably hurt its chances, even outside of War being an underperformer. However, people still like these Apes movies quite a bit and the trailer promises fun action and great special effects. It will need some quality reception that I don’t think Wes Ball can pull off, but even with weak reception, getting close to War seems likely. Let’s be optimistic and say this does deliver. 60/160 (2.67x)

May 17 If: Could go either way. A surprise hit or a major bomb. The trailer promises this as a fun, high-concept idea, its the first kids movie in a while, and Ryan Reynolds is one of the few reliable draws we have left. If John Krasinski made a crowdpleaser like his Quiet Place movies, this could be something. The only problem is that this is for little kids and little kids don't go to the movies anymore. Plus it's not a nostalgic toy commercial. Garfield coming out a week later also doesn't help. But perhaps Reynolds fans can propel this to Free Guy numbers. 35/115 (3.29x)

May 10 Horrorscope: Cheesy horror movies can sometimes break through from the "not a nostalgic toy commercial" curse. Not this one. 2/4 (2x) My Ex-Friend’s Wedding: Not a nostalgic toy commercial. 2/5 (2.5x)

May 3 The Fall Guy: Universal is definitely confident in this picture, with the full trailer airing during football and being pushed back, so it can get the summer kick-off slot. Quorum awareness metrics and Twitter trends are already fairly solid for this, plus Ryan Gosling is fresh off his biggest hit. Emily Blunt is always a good presence too. It’s definitely something weirdos will whine about, but this will play quite well with people and be a strong success for this kind of midbudget John Wick action comedy subgenre of movies. 55/150 (2.73x)

Quorum Updates The Book of Clarence T-16: 22.65% Awareness Mean Girls T-16: 46.85% Lisa Frankenstein T-44: 16.59% Imaginary T-72: 24.01% Kung Fu Panda 4 T-72: 47.24% Horrorscope T-135: 12.5% IF T-142: 19.89% The Garfield Movie T-149: 41.74% A Quiet Place: Day One T-184: 27.95% Ordinary Angels T-58: 16.18% Awareness T-60 Awareness: 31% chance of 10M Low Awareness: 27% chance of 10M

I appreciate silliness like this. In fact, it takes us back to the glory days of the 80s when Rambo and Robocop got Saturday morning cartoons. They even tried to do that with Aliens, but it got canceled at the last minute. https://comicsalliance.com/operation-aliens-kenner-alien-toys/

Wow. Only one movie will probably make 100M this movie. And none of the other movies are looking to do much either. Adam Aron might need to look for a new job once we get to this month.

April 26 Challengers: Not a nostalgic toy commercial, but Zendaya’s presence could make this perform a bit better than most. Just enough to get a double digit opening, which in this day and age, is commendable for small movies like these. 11/35 (3.18x) Civil War: This is a legit wild card. I have no clue if this will be good or not, I don't know if A24's audience is big enough to justify the money spent here...let's just assume it opens slightly more than Challengers but makes way less. That feels like the right outcome. 13/30 (2.31x) Unsung Hero: It's about some Christian music band or something? I dunno, I guess it'll do the usual Christian box office gross. 5/20 (4x)

April 12 Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire: Godzilla vs. Kong still crossed the century mark despite the odds stacked against it release-wise, and there’s enough of a fanbase for these Monsterverse movies that this should also get above the century mark too, even if the concept and marketing isn't as effective or memorable for obvious reasons. But considering how this franchise has never really been cream of the crop, only just barely. 45/110 (2.44x)

April 5 The First Omen: This isn’t really the biggest horror franchise out there, and I doubt this is any good, but horror fans are a reliable one and there’s probably a good money shot in the trailer for it to not be a total embarrassment box office wise. 20/45 (2.25x)

Quorum Updates The Boys in the Boat T-0: 27.87% Awareness The Color Purple T-0: 51.33% Ferrari T-0: 34.02% The Beekeeper T-18: 36.07% I.S.S. T-25: 20.8% Arthur the King T-88: 25.17% The Watchers T-165: 28.28% The Bikeriders T-179: 14.17% Night Swim T-11: 32.85% Awareness Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M Horror Awareness: 45% chance of 10M, 9% chance of 20M Argylle T-39: 18.88% Awareness T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M Medium Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

Because they also did and said problematic stuff and don't like being held accountable for their actions. Use the cancel culture boogeyman to get out of your problem. It definitely goes both ways.

Moderation Alright, about to move this into the Numbers/Data forum. But as a reminder once again to people, when I, or any other mod, ask you to stop something, you stop. No hesitation. No stammers. No ifs. No ands. No buts. No nothing. Please listen to the staff, or else more repercussions head your way. Thank you.

Moderation This goes for you too mister. We don't need this stuff on the forum. Period.

Moderation I was about to move some posts around to make a new thread, but before I do that....yeah @Valonqar please do not post sexist garbage like this. I truly doubt the world needs women to dress ultra super sexy and have giant chests in order to find success in the movies. And if that is the case, we have a bigger problem in our awful patricarchal society, and it's a pity that you are encouraging this. Please keep your hand out of your pants, or greater repercussions will come your way. You're an adult, so act like one. I hate that I have to wake up to this utter trash and that I even have to explain that this type of garbage shouldn't be on the forum, but I guess I can't expect too much from some of you. Ohhhhhhhhhhhh well.

Wow. Even with two guaranteed hits, this month will still suck. Theaters are screwed, aren’t they?

March 29 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire: Afterlife was well-liked, but I feel like it was more in the Shazam/Captain Marvel camp where people thought it was fine, but it didn’t really get anybody all that excited or hyped for another one. And the new trailer hasn’t really moved the needle when it comes to The Quorum. If anything, having a winter-themed movie play in the Spring like this might actually kind of ding it a bit. It's like if Frozen came out on Arbor Day. This will only appeal to the diehard fans and Sony has another dead franchise once again. Oh well. 35/88 (2.51x) Mickey 17: The lack of promo on this compared to all the other WB spring movies means this is getting a delay, or this is Bong's first dud and WB's trying to bury it. Either way...well, it’s not a nostalgic toy commercial. 13/35 (2.69x)