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WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020
Eric Quinn replied to WrathOfHan's topic in Box Office Discussion
And yep, that’s all of them. As you can see, I’m not super confident about 2020. 2019 really made me change my tune on the box office, and streaming is probably going to make things worse. But at the very least, Disney will at least have a few original properties land, WB might have the #1 movie this year, so consolation prize for all the dudes here who do nothing but whine about Disney, and maybe Timothee Chalamet saves cinema like he always does. Who knows? Let’s just enjoy the ride! As always, thank you to @WrathOfHan for accepting my request for us to do this together again. It’s always fun thinking this stuff up, and it’s always great to see how your mind works. Good luck with college and whatever else is happening to you this year. And thank you to all the people who read our stuff, reacted to our posts, and just listened to what we had to say. And one last thing, in case you’re wondering, yes I’m still on the “all non-Disney, non-Wonder Woman under 250M” train. Join the club dudes and dudettes!! -
WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020
Eric Quinn replied to WrathOfHan's topic in Box Office Discussion
December 25 The Croods 2: What an odd movie to give a sequel to now. The first Croods was a big hit, but it was 7 years ago. And since this doesn’t have the Disney machine keeping it relevant, the last time anyone actually talked or cared about The Croods was probably 5 years ago. By this point, do kids today even know what The Croods is? Ferdinand and Spies in Disguise both look to finish their runs in the 70s, and I think that sounds about right here. 17/24/73 (4.29x, 3.04x) News of the World: I love me some Paul Greengrass and Tom Hanks, and I’m sure I’m gonna love this. If the Western stuff looks good in the trailer, then that will only help the movie. The Post did about 80M back in 2017, and I think that’s fair enough. Maybe even a little bit higher, but for now, let’s just say about the same. 23/80 (3.48x) Tom and Jerry: Ah yes, a return to the glory days of Alvin and the Chipmunks and The Smurfs. I don’t really know what to expect with this. It’ll probably do better than Croods because it’s a nostalgic brand? Maybe? Tim Story is a fine enough journeyman, so I guess it’ll be fine? Let’s just say it does better than Croods, but not by much. 22/28/85 (3.86x, 3.04x) The Tomorrow War: And now, we end this two-week long escapade with a sci-fi Chris Pratt vehicle. Cool premise, like the director, not really sure if it’ll stand out if Dune really lands this Christmas. But hey, if there’s any time movies can co-exist, I guess it’s Christmas. Maybe Chris Pratt helps interest people too. Let’s just be nice to this one I guess. 30/110 (3.67x) -
WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020
Eric Quinn replied to WrathOfHan's topic in Box Office Discussion
December 18 Coming 2 America: Eddie Murphy’s having a bit of a comeback thanks to his SNL hosting and the success of Dolemite is My Name on Netflix. And while Coming to America wasn’t Murphy’s biggest success, it still get to about 285M with inflation, and I think there’s plenty of people who would be excited to see Murphy return in a new comedy again. Helps that Dolemite director Craig Brewer is at the helm. 15/90 (6x) Dune: Am I being overconfident in this movie solely because my baby is in this? Well...yeah, but I have other reasons. While Doctor Sleep didn’t get much help being put into a “better” slot, but having this movie put into December does at least seem to indicate WB likes what they see enough to put it in a tentpole position like this, and Denis Villeneuve is beloved. As always, this stuff will depend on the marketing, but I feel like WB will know how to sell the cast, action, and spectacle in a way that will entice people. So yeah, let’s be optimistic here. 50/230 (4.6x) West Side Story: Ansolo is haunting us again baybee. And yeah, this seems like an easy candidate for a solid hit. West Side Story is iconic and Spielberg is Spielberg, while this also fits as being a very easy to sell tentpole for adults and seniors. It’s pretty much guaranteed to be big with Grandmas the world over. Mary Poppins Returns did about 170M two years ago, and I think that’s a good indication for this movie here. 30/170 (5.67x) -
WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020
Eric Quinn replied to WrathOfHan's topic in Box Office Discussion
December 11 Samaritan: This Lionsgate-Stallone vehicle releasing a week before the holiday rush doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence, mainly because all the December movies coming on the 18th won’t help it when it comes to Christmas legs. But hey, Julius Avery is a talent, so I could very well be wrong. At the very least, it'll do better than In the Heart of the Sea. That's something. 15/45 (3x) -
Tonight is the true beginning of award season. For three hours, deserved and not-so-deserved wins will emerge, all the while a bunch of celebrities will be shitfaced drunk and Ricky Gervais will be an obnoxious asshole. Will Joker take home the Gold? Will Taylor Swift get Cats its one and only award before the Razzies arrive? How many awards will Netflix win? Are the HFPA full of a bunch of sexists? (well, we all know the answer to that) Y'all know the rules by this point. Be nice, be civil, have fun. Do anything stupid, you're getting warning points. Enjoy!
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WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020
Eric Quinn replied to WrathOfHan's topic in Box Office Discussion
It's from the director of The Road Chip Han. -
The Farewell l A24 l Awkwafina l RBG-approved
Eric Quinn replied to Eric Quinn's topic in Box Office Discussion
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Eric Quinn replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Dolittle Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 27 41 5,272 0.78% Total Seats Sold Today: 0 Comp 0.325x of Maleficent 12 days before release (748K) -
WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020
Eric Quinn replied to WrathOfHan's topic in Box Office Discussion
November 25 King Richard: Serena Williams is basically the biggest thing in tennis right now, so I think a biopic about her and Venus and their relationship with their dad has great potential box office wise. Will Smith starring also doesn’t hurt. Let’s just say Creed numbers for right now. 30/40/105 (3.5x, 2.62x) Raya and the Last Dragon: After a slew of sequels, it is nice to see Disney Animation follow Pixar and go back to their bread and butter and create new and exciting IPs, and this sounds like another winner. Being a more action-heavy movie helps it stand out compared to the other Princess movies, and with the directors also having a lot of experience working on Disney’s previous hit films this past decade, I think they have an idea on what people like to see. It also helps that December looks really weak this year, so late legs could be easier to obtain. 60/85/265 (4.42x, 3.12x) -
WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020
Eric Quinn replied to WrathOfHan's topic in Box Office Discussion
November 20 Happiest Season: A lesbian Christmas romcom? The POWAH of Love, Simon. And I guess that’s a good idea on where it’ll open and end at. The premise seems like one that will get plenty of positive headlines, and should be enough of a warm crowdpleaser, especially with the Christmas season ahead of it. Unless it really turns out bad, it’ll be a modest little moneymaker. 15/60 (4x) Godzilla vs. Kong: For what it’s worth, King Kong is more recognizable and a bigger draw than Mothra and Ghidora. So I can see a scenario where there’s a bit more interest among casual fans and the GA compared to King of the Monsters. But....yeah, this won’t do well. Ignoring The Eternals, people got burned by the last couple Godzilla movies and I think people just don’t really care about these monsters or this shared universe anymore. Better than King of the Monsters? Maybe. I’m not predicting that, but it’s not impossible. But don’t expect something great here. 35/90 (2.57x) -
Did I say you should not talk about Star Wars? You can talk about the movie's performance. What I'm saying is that discussing how Star Wars was ruined, and complaining about JJ, KK, Rian, Iger, or whoever has gone on long enough. It already was toxic enough weeks ago, but that was because it just came out and there was merit to discuss this. But now, it's old news, nobody's going to change their minds, and it was going to lead to a toxic discussion that would last multiple pages. I want this place to be a fun environment to talk about box office, and talking about how much people hate JJ or The Last Jedi was not going to help. Besides, what else can you really add to this blame game three weeks later? Is there anything else that needs to be talked about at this point?
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WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020
Eric Quinn replied to WrathOfHan's topic in Box Office Discussion
November 13 Dark Water: Adrian Lyne finally returns after an 18-year hiatus. Lyne’s work is arguably hit-and-miss, so I’m not expecting anything amazing critically, but the premise is good, and the cast is strong, especially since Ana de Armas is arguably the breakout star of Knives Out. Only other concern is how Disney/Fox can handle this being sandwiched inbetween both Eternals and Raya, but I’m sure Disney will have some idea on what they’re doing. 23/70 (3.04x) Clifford the Big Red Dog: Now that’s what I call nostalgia! I loved the PBS show and the books growing up. Let’s see who is in charge of this...Walt Becker, the director of Wild Hogs, Old Dogs, and Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip And Paramount wonders why they’re in last place. 15/45 (3x) -
WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020
Eric Quinn replied to WrathOfHan's topic in Box Office Discussion
November 6 The Eternals: Papa Feige has something special up his sleeves with this one, I can smell it. Not just because of director Chloe Zhao (Please see The Rider) nor the cast, but just in the way it fits into the Marvel universe. Celestial beings, alien races, century-spanning storyline, cosmic intergalactic shit. It all sounds so grand and epic and cool that I think it’ll really show like that in the movie. Outside of that, there’s pretty much nothing competition-wise until Thanksgiving (I know there’s Godzilla vs. Kong, but uh.... 😬), and Marvel is still likely going to be the biggest thing ever by this point, so expect another winner. And y’know what, let’s predict a big winner. 140/400 (2.86x)- 272 replies
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