DAJK

Anecdotal but comparing Wednesday previews in a handful of Canadian theatres to The Batman's early showings would put Top Gun at around 105-112M 3-day. Which may seem low for some, high for others, but it's important to remember that this is Canada. We don't have the same "military/American Sniper" crowd as the US which I think is going to propel this film into the stratosphere.

Excited for this. Hope it doesn't end up being another Midway, although box office wise, Midway numbers seem about right.

Didn’t even think about it. Either way, I think August is better for it anyways.

I mean, that’s a big if. But looking at previous WOM Memorial Day hits, if it follows Aladdin from a 4-day of 160, that gives 486M lol.

Was sick for most of the last week and didn’t really have much of a chance to track, let alone follow, any numbers. Are many people still on the TGM>MOM domestic train?

Heheh, nice

The more “traditionally” arthouse theatres that have sort of gone mainstream in the last couple of years (the one I work at being an example, arthouse fare still does well here, but most of the stuff we play is studio fare), EEAAO has been an absolute beast. Yea, it has NOT been dropping at all. It’s been pulling out equivalent of 30-40M weekends for the past 6 weeks, and weekdays are also insane. While the domestic box office is “only” 50M, in the markets where This thing is connecting, it is a GENUINE marvel-sized blockbuster.

Who needs Dr Strange when we have a much better cameo-filled movie like Chip n’ Dale?

Honestly, I kind of hope Top Gun out-grosses MoM just so we can get more #crumbling memes. For those who weren't around in 2015, #crumbling came from a user who was a little more than slightly upset that Jurassic World had opened above Age of Ultron, and was doing everything they could to spin the numbers to show that Age of Ultron would ultimately come out on top, going so far as to confirm again and again that Jurassic World was crumbling... whatever that meant. Ah, simpler times.

For some reason, Friday matinees are playing incredibly strong across the board. Presales for Friday mat were actually much stronger than presales for Saturday mat are right now. Either way, 7.5-8 is actually a pretty decent number. Thanks for the update!

@Eric Crawley I'm seeing the same thing for Downton; extremely frontloaded, walk-ups were TERRIBLE, which is funny because the last Downton movie played like a mega blockbuster here and pre-sales AND walk-ups were great. Going in to today I thought 20M was possible. Put me down for sub-15 now. Awful awful day for it. In good (better) news, Men out-sold X in pretty much every market I looked at (still have COVID, so I only have data today from theatres I'm tracking individually). Would say 5M can still happen unless it turns out to be very frontloaded itself.

Yea this sucked lol.

Good for Peter Sohn getting another movie. Still, Good Dinosaur wasn’t great, so I hope he can improve with this one.

For those who were thinking Top Gun would underperform in Canada, it’s presales are double Dominion’s as of now, which makes sense since it is closer to release. What surprises me more is the backloaded-ness of Top Gun’s sales. Don’t get me wrong, Thursday is still strong, but it’s Friday and Saturday in particular are much much stronger. Whatever this does in previews, expect the weekend to be backloaded.

I can give a Canada update today

Give us Top Gun already Hollywood!

I don’t think this can beat Iron Man 2 for the 3-day simply because it’s opening over a holiday weekend. 110/135 seems the best I can hope for for the 3-4day opening. That being said, legs COULD be great, but the one-two punch of Jurassic and Lightyear are going to be tough competition.

Of course EEAAO would have a good Mother’s Day boost. For people who are seeing it, it’s WOM is in part about it being a really good look at mother-child relationships. One of the most common things I hear people saying is “I didn’t realize I had mommy issues until now” when they’re leaving the theatre.

Hoping I get a chance to see this. Looks like fun British dramedy.

Another thing I've been noticing about Top Gun sales is how incredibly backloaded they are. Thursday is MUCH stronger than the Wednesday "previews" across the board. And Friday is consistently at least 50% ahead of Thursday, sometimes as close to 100-110% bigger.

469 would have been really nice

Yes, but Top Gun is outselling it by a country mile. Makes sense given it’s the one closer to release, but still...

Side note but I’m checking up on Top Gun sales regionally and... holy crap it’s really picking up steam. Honestly is selling like a Marvel movie so far, with the caveat that it’s not slowing down after the first couple days. Once reviews hit, I expect it will get another boost. @Shawn do you have any comments about just your own personal expectations? Honestly if this movie really lands (or soars I guess) with audiences, I could see BOpro’s high end forecast being very very possible.

85 would indicate massive frontloading. Ultron numbers OW/DOM.

Just going to put it out there, you could just... get your ticket refunded if you leave before the film actually starts lmao